Friday, January 30, 2009

UK state media grasping desperately

Mortgage approvals rise slightly

In the past few weeks some commentators have suggested that activity, if not prices, in the housing market might be about to start picking up. Surveyors and estate agents have reported a rise in enquiries from potential new buyers.

Posted by paul @ 10:59 AM (1277 views)
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8 thoughts on “UK state media grasping desperately

  • These figure are so small, that when Mrs S Wiggins in Budleigh Salterton remortgaged her detached 4 bedroom last month it moved up these figures by another percentage point!

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  • You could easily have rising activity with falling prices. No news here.

    Now is the time of the traditional spring bounce. Buyer interest will be re-ignited, but with banks unwilling to lend and sellers unwilling to lower prices, I can’t see this stalemate being resolved soon. Looking at America, it took massive repossessions and forced sales to really get prices falling (down nearly 50% from peak in California according to some indices). This market has a lot further to fall.

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  • The Primitive says:

    Didn’t one poster have a chart showing approvals vs house prices? I recall anythign below about 100,000 was a sign of falling prices

    Anyone got a link

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  • Given the month is December and only a 3 week month at best the increase over November of 4000 from 27000 is frankly a huge increase.

    However I personally remain sceptical as to me at least ‘mortgage approvals’ isn’t clear.

    Does this mean someone phoned up to check the availabilty of money on which to base a decision for the spring.

    Does this figure include re-mortgaging ?

    If it does then it frankly means nothing.

    If it is based on approvals of house purchases going through with solicitors and none of the above then to have an increase in December I would say is significant as it at least would point to a direction of sentiment if nothing else.

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  • As far as I can ascertain it includes new mortgages AND all the remortgages and people negotiating mortgage deals that have expired.

    It is a piddling amount – The banks have absolutely no money to lend str2007. They are still in survival mode

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  • OK folks, I’ll do a bit of legwork then.

    58% reduction in number of approvals from Dec07.

    73% fall from Dec 06.

    Things are looking rosy then.

    31.3k average june-dec 08
    93.8k average june-dec 07

    A whopping 67% fall in the number or mortgages approved. Oops.

    non-seasonally adjusted figure is 23,000 loans?

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  • I believe only the number of mortgages went up. The total value of mortgages still fell. There was still a smaller amount of money out there, but in the hands of more people.

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  • Regardless of what is included in this, there shouldn’t be an automatic assumption that because numbers are increasing, then the market might be turning. How many of these are mortgages taken out by people who are downsizing in order to minimise their losses on the falls that will inevitably continue. There is always a scramble to get up, or on, the ladder when the market is inflating, why not a similar scramble to get down when it’s deflating. Banks would presumably be willing to give out mortgages to people who are looking to reduce their debt.

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