Saturday, January 10, 2009

Not much to agrue with here. Telling it like it is

Why the smile? This is all his fault

Over the course of the past few weeks, I have been criticised by friends for my pessimistic views on the UK economy, and on house prices in particular. I don't see what good it does to shoot the messenger, but I note that throughout history messengers have often received the raw end of the deal! I also find it increasingly difficult to be politically neutral; investment and politics are now more closely linked than ever. I firmly believe that this government has systematically wrecked our economy over the past 10 years.

Posted by wanderinman @ 07:22 PM (1743 views)
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12 thoughts on “Not much to agrue with here. Telling it like it is

  • japanese uncle says:

    The Independent is much more worth while compared to the Times which is of little use but wrapping fish & chips.

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  • “The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values.”

    I would argue on that one though. Just a good old-fashioned depression-inducing credit boom.

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  • “The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values. Indeed, as I have said in this column before, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust (written in 2005).”

    Excuse me..?!! If this guy had taken his head out of his rear end and looked around (including this site..) he’d have seen that a lot of us reached the same conclusion back then. The irony is that we’ve gone from not talking about it cos people thought we were mad to sell and rent, to not talking about it because people think we’re gloating… Well, only a little bit – not as much as I’d like to!

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  • But Paul – the credit boom fed on property values and vice versa – I really don’t think we’d have had one without the other.

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  • The Independent – the paper of mock indignation of the chattering classes.
    The government this, the government that.
    Not my fault. Your fault.
    Ah diddums, perhaps Dampier “the Analyst” should go home and play with his teddies.
    On the “way up”, everyone was in on it – politicians, the colluding electorate, most especially
    the asset managers, financial advisers, stockbroker businesses.
    And now Hargreaves Lansdown is no longer on an earner he’s having a mock tantrum.
    Dampier’s not rich enough already, you have to sympathise.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ Bininmytime, exactly, property price bubbles and credit bubbles are two sides of the same coin.

    Land Value Tax guru Fred Harrison predicted the 1989 crash in about 1985, he’s been trying to explain this ever since. As well as predicting the 2007 crash (more or less to the month) since about 1997.

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  • last_days_of_disco says:

    @mark wadsworth

    Its just so sad to watch the “reasonable” scramble for the centre which basically has slowly been moving off a cliff. And now the “”reasonable middle” party is basically screwed but still the politicians reflexively have learned that trying to do anything different (or right for that matter) is suicide. If you think about it that is exactly what new labour is. Compromise based populist politics with no attempt to actually lead. Its following the herd off the cliff instead of leading people out of danger.

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  • “But Paul – the credit boom fed on property values and vice versa – I really don’t think we’d have had one without the other.”

    Land prices were the rising fire, but credit was the fuel. House prices can’t rise if people can’t pay more.

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  • The Economist kept talking of a housing bubble back in 1999!

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  • ‘Wasting the labours of the people under the pretence of taking care of them’
    Thomas Jefferson 1743-1826
    Gordon is only following a tradition

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  • 3. bidin’matime said…the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust (written in 2005).”

    crunchy. F. Harrison went out of he’s way to warn Brown on more than one occasion. Did not want to bloody know!

    He took the credit for the global/UK boom, which he played a big part in. However washed he’s hands of the global/UK crash.

    8. paul … Spot on. Add to that, our whole economy and Brown has much to answer for.

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  • The which came first argument-credit expansion or rising land values- does n’t really matter if the scenario is that every time ther is a fiscal or monetary stimulus, land values go up.A lot of land taxers were predicting this bust : this outcome is hard-wired into their economic philosophy.Fred Harrison is astonishing for predicting the crash to the month and the year and putting his credibility on the line by publishing his prophesy a long time in advance .
    The fact remains though that if the Guv manages to force the cowering banks to lend any money another Boom/bust cycle in property values will start up .Unless the land value tax which Fred Harrison demands is put in place at the bottom of the property market, a return of high levels of lending will simply disappear into land without stimulating the production of goods and services .
    The danger is that Harrison will be marginalised as a curiosity who came up on risky bet about the economy, when his real signicance should be in ushering in the Land value tax.

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