Saturday, January 17, 2009

Irish house prices forecast to fall 80% in real terms

Warning that house prices may fall by 80%

'In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.' 'Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation to the property bubble, when in fact he and a handful of other “amateurs” were merely stating what was obvious.'

Posted by buconero @ 02:42 AM (2685 views)
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11 thoughts on “Irish house prices forecast to fall 80% in real terms

  • Wow this guy Kelly tells it like it is! Pity that people didn’t listen before, given that this whole mess was largely avoidable.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    So much for the Celtic Tiger!
    Ireland is another Iceland, an outpost upon the edge of Europe.
    There was never any logical reason for its rise.
    I am not sure if we will see quite the same falls in the UK.

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  • I hope the deteriorating economy isn’t a trigger to re-ignite the troubles.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    I suspect that this will be the case everywhere

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  • Morgan Kelly cannot be dismissed as just another talking head – he’s done studies of numerous housing crashes around the world – if you’ve never read his studies, you should. Most crashes followed the same pattern – prices lose on average 70% of the gains they made and over 4-8 years.

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    Ireland is a little different to us here. Those waiting for average prices to reduce by much more than 40 % from peak will be disappointed I fear.
    With interest rates where they are property makes a good investment at 40% off from peak.
    Another year and prices down by another 20% will probably see the near bottom of prices and then stagnation.

    Ireland on the other hand having just been there is due for falls well in excess of 40%. It makes parts of the UK look very reasonable.
    Businesses such as Dell are leaving and that will have an impact.

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  • I love the term “zombie bank”

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ TC, ” … the rule book is out of the window……which doesn’t affect me becasue I never read the rule book anyway”

    Your spelling may be poor but your turns of phrase are borderline genius.

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  • Its Going With a Bang

    Quote”With interest rates where they are property makes a good investment at 40% off from peak”

    Well maybe if you can get a 25year fixed deal – Very unlikely.

    A/ Interest reates are the lowest for 50 years so why are not people just borrowing like its 1999? – Thats one question
    B/ You currently owe £17000 to Gordon brown as your part of helping the poor banks with their problems, i suspect by the time this week is over you will owe him £50000.
    C/ Even after all the bankrupt banks are bailed out ( ie all the money they have lost over the past 10 years ) they have to resort to being post 2009 viable businesses – Credit wil be far more restrictive than the last 10 years regardless of rates.
    D/Property prices were out of relation to earnings before any talk of recession.
    E/ 75% of people with mortgages are already maxed out, you can only borrow £250000 so many times.
    F/ Houses unlike shares etc unless you can sell have — “NO Value” —

    I disagree with you as to real house prices and i feel with the redundancies and pay cuts the last thing people will want is further loans and liabilities ( which is what a house is – as opposed a home )

    I believe 50% is very likely – 60% maybe

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang said…

    Quote “With interest rates where they are property makes a good investment at 40% off from peak.”

    Not so sure about that in truth, if your correct in your assesment then with stagflation houses will be a poor investment, i am still of the belief that IRs are at 1.5% short term, 2010 its up up up ——— How else is UK.PLC going to repay what it owes???????

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  • James Correction says:

    people were spending money like it feel from the sky like the rain. low wages and big spend where did they think the money would come from. and then the few with land taugh they had it all. if it was not for the bent roughes in dail eirn the country had half a chance. but at least 4 to5 years of recession. now whos giving it the large 1

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