Thursday, January 15, 2009

housing uber-bear says we heading for carnage

When it comes to UK housing — “We’ve only just begun…”

Alastair Stewart, the Dresdner Kleinwort analyst – and housing uber-bear — published his predictions for 2009 on Thursday and in the words (almost) of another number one single: Things can only get bleaker. So bleak in fact that: Housing starts will hit their lowest peacetime level since 1920. Peak to trough house price fall will be 50%. Several private and quoted housebuilders will face administration. "Housing in general and over-geared housebuilders in particular will lurch from crisis to catastrophe during 2009 and possibly well beyond, in our view."

Posted by mountain goat @ 01:19 PM (2178 views)
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14 thoughts on “housing uber-bear says we heading for carnage

  • charlie brooker says:

    We’re on a road to Nowheresville, Alabama.

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  • Just imagine reading an article like this in a main stream publication as recently as a year ago.

    It’s quite incredible really the momentum behind this.

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  • just a lighthearted passing observation ~~~ has anyone noticed how the adverts immediately above each article vary?

    yesterday drewster relit a fire about bailiff’s powers ~~~ and look what happened! (edited for clarity) oddly the page that opens up says nothing about bailiff insurance.

    Ads by Google

    Bailiff Insurance
    Specialist Insurance For Bailiffs
    http://www.pd-business-insurance.co.uk

    Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009
    More on bailiffs and their new powers
    Telegraph: An Englishman’s home is no longer his castle
    We will be hearing a lot more of the bailiff in coming months. About 75,000 homes will be repossessed this year and hundreds of thousands of people will face action for unpaid debts. Local authorities are also using bailiffs to pursue council tax defaulters, with more than a million visits last year. If you want a job, here is one that will last while all around are losing theirs. Her Majesty’s Courts Service issued guidance to bailiffs about how their powers should be used. “If a person locks himself in their home, it might be reasonable to break open the door, but probably not to smash a hole in the wall,” it advises. In 2007, the Government extended these powers to allow bailiffs to use physical force against householders to restrain or pin down them down. [Linked from LewRockwell.com]
    Posted by drewster @ 12:19 AM (479 views) Add Comment

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  • @troy
    “just a lighthearted passing observation ~~~ has anyone noticed how the adverts immediately above each article vary?”

    I can remember malct banging on about the same topic.

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  • @str2007

    Indeed. You would have been labelled a nutter or “sick”: As we were all collectively named by Ms K Allhope. I also remember people talking about a slow slip into the crash area, not a severe correction: All from outside of these pages needless to say.

    The internet communication has meant noone need believe the press – most of whom have become dependent on lots of estate agent advertising as well as of course editors’ own portfolios.

    Anyway – off to PC world and Comet in Wycombe at 4pm…. lets see what sort of readiness to deal there is

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  • growler

    I’m off to the london meet tonight, leaving by car at about 4-oopm, you can have a lift if you like .

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  • The google ads aren’t a massive conspiracy. They have some fairly simple software that scans the words on each page and puls up an advert that might be of interest to those reading the thing. So. A simple experiment:

    Food – chicken – beef – pork – recipe – gourmet – Sainsbury’s – Tesco – ocado – Waitrose – bacon – bread – milk – beans – cheap

    Let’s see what happens…

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  • Hello, I am a new ‘recruit’. Do you have neetings too??
    tqo

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  • 7. James; NHS Smokefree.

    Must have been the reference to Bacon then 😉

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  • New to site, best read in years, keep it flowing

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  • james

    Is Your Bank In Trouble?
    Free list Of Banks Doomed To Fail. The Banks and Brokers X List. Free!
    http://www.MoneyAndMarkets.com
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    hey this was supposed to be comic relief!

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  • I just posted on another thread regarding California. My company has just received a “State IOU” from Big Arnie. Luckily we don’t need the money (yet) but hard money discount is 20%. The “state” of things to come methinks.

    On another subject-I am a Chartered Surveyor (boo) by profession and was in the UK in the 90’s during the last crash. What people haven’t figured out yet is what is happening on the ground now in relation to valuations. Surveyors with long memories (like me) remember being sued pretty frequently by people in neg-equity. Surveyors will now take the easy way out and “value down” thus probably negating a sale because of loan to value ratios. Inverse is true in the boom. “We” still get our fee without the risk of somebody with a hatchet calling when his/her property is down another 20% next year and he/she is under water. Last thing surveyors need is multiple claims on your PI insurance and subsequent premium increases. I know a few of my old mates who are wary of even taking instructions as things stand-especially for some crappy fixed fee from the banks. Sod that.

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  • Google Ads are based on your profile (browsing history) as well as the keywords on the page. Google and other ad-provider know a lot more about your browsing history than you would expect, they have some clever methods.

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