Sunday, January 11, 2009

House prices likely to fall for up to six years suggests latest research from Harvard University

The Aftermath of Financial Crises

Latest academic study on impact of previous financial crises suggests house prices have a long way to go both in duration and magnitude of fall (average of -36%). Authors say: "An examination of the aftermath of severe financial crises shows deep and lasting effects on asset prices, output and employment. Unemployment rises and housing price declines extend out for five and six years, respectively.”

Posted by lucas @ 04:53 PM (652 views)
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2 thoughts on “House prices likely to fall for up to six years suggests latest research from Harvard University

  • Why do we need to analyse and re-analuyse the why of the property bubble and constantly dwell on the past ?.
    There are never any lessons to be learnt. History repeats itself unfortunately.
    Hence I am already looking at the next cycle leading to the next property bubble in 2025. Why ? Because i will be retiring and dont want to have to sell in a bear market.I shall invest again in 2013 when property prices will be back to 200 levels.Better be right this time……

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  • The reason it is good to look back is to remind people that crashes are a normal phenomena when prices get out of hand. Most English peole are blissfully unaware that house prices have crashed around the world before. (And this was without a world recession)
    In the UK especially, we got off extremely likely in the last housing crash because of high inflation. The same won’t be true this time. People who ar thinking of buying now should study this paper. Buying now is akin to putting a bet on at the bookies.

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