Monday, January 19, 2009

First class article by Mark Dampier (Hargreaves Lansdown)

A political plague

The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values. As I have said previously in this column, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust, written in 2005. US house prices are likely to fall by another 15 per cent before they reach the bottom, making a total fall of at least 40 per cent. I mention this because our housing market was even more overvalued than theirs. Our housing market has fallen by about 16 per cent, so there is long way to go, especially considering an almost guaranteed sharp rise in unemployment. Anyone predicting a modest recovery in 2009 is fooling themselves. The best leading indicator of house prices is mortgage approvals...............................Read on

Posted by jack c @ 07:35 PM (753 views)
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2 thoughts on “First class article by Mark Dampier (Hargreaves Lansdown)

  • I expect Mark Dampier speaks for most of us here. It’s basically language we have all used although I remember the ‘who do we blame?’ question producing various culprits. In my case it was emphatically politicians as they are in overall control – and – more importantly; to spread the blame never acheives a solution.
    The big questions are : How are we ever going to right these wrongs? Was this by design or accidental? Are we now completely impotent with regards influence and action?
    Worryingly I can only answer the last question knowingly, which is : Yes.

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  • Cynicalsoothsayer says:

    Mark Brinkley of “The Housebuilders Bible” fame predicted this long before Fred Harrison. Mark learnt it the hard way though, he went bust in the ’89 house price crash.

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