Sunday, January 18, 2009

22% fall over 18 months predicted

UK jobless 'to reach 3.4 million'

Unemployment will soar to 3.4 million as the financial crisis deepens, forecasters predict ahead of official jobless figures this week. The Ernst & Young Item Club says the number of those out of work in the UK will pass 3.25 million by the end of 2010, and hit 3.4 million in 2011. "All of the economic statistics are now in free-fall," it said in its forecast.

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 08:28 PM (1363 views)
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9 thoughts on “22% fall over 18 months predicted

  • i initially thought that i might jump in at the end of this year, however, i think i might need to wait longer.. The only fear i really have is QE by the BOE, if inflation kicks in, the money in the bank is hust going to devalue…

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  • japanese uncle says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see the jobless rate hitting 20% mark eventually (by 2012), to intensify the workers’ struggle for survival involving massive wage cut. Meanwhile inflation will never kick in for the foreseeable future, as no sooner are the monies printed, than they are hoarded in the coffers of banks that call loans aggressively from the households 1.5 trillion in debt, never to be circulated for investment and consumption. By 2012 salary/wages will be 20-25% less than today, and quickly shrinking affordability will cause further price deflation in a bottomless spiral. Upward pressure due to increasing prices of imported goods thanks to GBP depreciation will be absorbed in part by harshly cutting costs including wage and in part by downgrading the quality of goods. I seem to see advert of instant coffee much more often than before.

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  • “The majority of additional jobs will be taken by men, who were also expected to take more jobs in roles traditionally occupied by women, such as childcare, healthcare and beauty therapy, said the report. ”

    Beauty therapy!!! Crikey, I hope I don’t lose my job and have to retrain!

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  • I am watching wii prices and they are not coming down.

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  • japanese uncle says:

    Wii may be competitive enough and still in great demand, sustaining the price. On the other hand, Florida premium orange juice, and Welch grape juice (both 100%, not from concentrate) have become dramatically cheaper (by 35%) recently, despite GBP decline. I am under the impression that cost of grocery in general has become definitely cheaper than six mos ago.

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  • stillthinking says:

    I see you haven’t changed from your deflationary stance JU. What is your opinion on the future yen/sterling rate? Is this a temporary fall against the yen? Or is ~140 yen here to stay?

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  • japanese uncle says:

    Stillthinking

    120-130 yen/GBP will be the long term equilibrium, but could overshot to 110yen level. Just my gut feeling.

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  • stillthinking says:

    Sheesh, that isn’t good news. Thanks.

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  • When the yen jumped a few months ago the japan gov. started making noises to weaken it, but that talk seems to have died down recently. I think they have realised there is nothing they can do about it.

    However I wonder what will happen to the yen when more and more JP exporters go bust over this year.

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