Saturday, December 20, 2008
Suprise, suprise. They know how dire it is going to be in 2009 & 2010
Halifax and Nationwide decide not to publish annual house price forecasts
Halifax and Nationwide publish house price surveys every month, which both lenders said they would continue to provide. But neither is going ahead with their annual predictions for next year.
Posted by v stor @ 12:13 PM (2102 views)
14 thoughts on “Suprise, suprise. They know how dire it is going to be in 2009 & 2010”
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fjcruiser says:
We dont need these two banks, one of which has gone bust to tell us about where prices have been or are going. they should concentrate instead of predicting risk.
plato says:
They have been widely exposed by the likes of sites like this, who have members technically capable of accurate forecasting well before they release their ‘figures’ and at times questioning their forecasts.
They are beginning to feel exposed to truth. Hence the coming silence.
str 2007 says:
How much does a coal mine cost TC ?
Agreed there could be some big monthly drops next year.
10-15% is a foregone conlusion for next year, question is how much bigger could it be ?
I can’t realistically see anyone getting offers unless their sales price reflects todays market, I then can’t seeing anyone buying unless they get 10-15% discount as a minimum from that price.
So effectively any sales that go through in January February should in theory show up a monthly fall of at least 5-10%.
Something tells me some serious figure smoothing would occur and you’d never get to see monthly falls as big as that.
I think we might see 3.5% fall in a month though.
Perhaps we should have a sportsmans bet as to the biggest Hali/wide monthly fall to be recorded in 2009. I’ll go 3.7% as my bid.
gotout2006 says:
Who now will tell us of these fall’s. Will it be a Government Body who can fiddle
with the figure’s.
crunchy says:
If they pulished their predictions the government would be expected to do something magical
and estate agents panicing would make things worse?
FTBers would also run a mile. You can predict your way into a collapse.
Ash4781 says:
Personally I expected them to stop publishing the index rather than the forecast
p. doff says:
6. titaniccaptain said…”changed back to coal just by reopening the chimney”
Ooh no, we can’t have that!, An open fireplace lowers the energy rating of the house. If the gummint get their way we will soon have the fireplace police paying a visit and putting up the council tax on these less energy efficient houses.
hpwatcher says:
Only problem with buying coal in bulk is……….where do you put it???????……lucky I have a large garden I havent mowed the lawn for a while..so it might cover it up nicely
In the last 40 years, houses simply haven’t been built to accomodate coal. Another example of short sightedness of politicians.
paul says:
This reminds me a little of Natwest (part of RBS), now mostly state owned, offering free financial advice to people. This begs the question from me – why on earth would I want to take financial advice from a failed bank, and why on earth would I listen to any house price predictions from banks which failed to work accurate predictions into their own business models, to save their own skins!
Utterly incompetent.
str 2007 says:
Paul
What they predict and what they believe are 2 different things, if you’d been at the first HPC meet in London you’d have met one.
Who knows he may turn up at the one in January, nice chap.
phdinbubbles says:
@paul
“This reminds me a little of Natwest (part of RBS), now mostly state owned, offering free financial advice to people.”
I always have a private little chuckle to myself when the cash-machines at some banks offer to give me advice with my cash – Advice from YOU?
mark wadsworth says:
@ STR 2007, I was at an HPC meet up in October, was there a VI in our midst?
paul says:
str 2007. I didn’t turn up to a meeting yet, but my confidence in the meetup.com fraternity has waxed recently – I must confess that there seems to be conflicting interests on the part of the active members (among which I was an organizer until i stepped down recently) – can you tell me where and when the meet is proposed?
I wouldn’t join a club which would accept me as a member and all that …
beartil2010 says:
Enjoy the meets guys. I’m in Oz now and yet to find a relevant site with enough quality news, although bubblepedia is relevant. Pointless anyway I think, Oz gets the impacts last! Reading this site keeps me ahead of the game here, I believe.