Saturday, December 20, 2008

Predicting next years bounce

afraidtotrade.com

One for Techieman. "There’s a rather large debate currently brewing among Ellioticians regarding exactly which Elliott 4th Wave we are experiencing - though there’s widespread agreement we are in a 4th Wave Counter-rally. Let’s look briefly at both sides of the argument, and what it might mean for the near future."

Posted by mountain goat @ 10:16 AM (1409 views)
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17 thoughts on “Predicting next years bounce

  • Have we had the bottom already of the 3rd Wave (which is what I personally think)

    or do we go to a lower low first?

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  • We’re definitely in the third phase of the moon in venus, and in the second mayan mungbean phase.

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  • I know Elliott wave fans enjoy the analytical challenge, but they are in the same situation as everyone else, guessing where indices will go next, up or down,
    at the same time knowing that in retrospect it will all become sooo obvious.

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  • Martin Armstrong high is 20 April so diagram 1 looks the best.

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  • I haven’t pooed today. When I do, I’ll check my stools and let you know.

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  • 2. paul said…
    We’re definitely in the third phase of the moon in venus, and in the second mayan mungbean phase.

    Agreed paul
    Sums it all up really. It will make much more sense as this unfolds. When the Black Knight shows he’s legions from within the mist and the Empire consolidates.

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  • S2R1 – agreed, there are lots of analyses which coincide with this date. I am going to make a collection of them for myself. I think the fact that it coincides with the first few months of a new democratic president makes it very likely scenario too.

    To all you doubters, fair enough it does just seem like guess work. However, if you research this you will find that it is a fact that there are clear repeating patterns in the valuations of assets over time. Why these exist is open to debate but it probably comes down to rational decisions combined with the usual human emotions of faith, hope, exuberance, fear, panic and despair. Everyone feels these emotions but technical analysis of the past can help you over-rule your gut response. For example all of us who read this blog probably felt at some point that we were missing the boat on the houseprice bubble. Looking at technical analysis could have shown you that it was a bubble even though the sheep part of your brain was whinging that if you didnt buy now you would never get onto the housing ladder.

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  • It was a floater.

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  • mg – Surely the biggest lesson from this episode is that the old models don’t always work? In fact they often fail to work at major turning points in the economic cycle. I don’t know much about this particular model, but a priori it must be just as fallible as the rest.

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  • Good to see this blog has readers of all ages!

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  • Drewster – yes they are just predictions to try lower risk.

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  • All these chart modelling theories are based on the notion that history repeats itself, which it sometimes does (to a degree) – but more frequently doesn’t.

    Look at the woods, not the trees.

    Does the socio economic backdrop to this upset bear a close resemblance to any past upset? Answer: No.

    So to get a take on where things are going, you need to look at all the basic trends and components of the economy, and play out a game of consequences, with each alternate outcome weighted against its probability of occurrence. Simple? No. Interesting? Yes.

    Looking at graphs and trying to apply old theories won’t get you anywhere…!

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  • I am not feeling unreasonably frightened of Spaniards, and I see no Tolmecs or Olmecs so my Mayan outlook is not disturbed, I have rummaged with my Runes and dallied with my Deities and felt in my water, but I am left with the feeling that along with the aformentioned predictors, messrs Eliot (was he a dragon?) and Calleman have no more idea than I have about what will happen next. Except that I am left with the logical conclusion that things will get much worse until they get better again.
    Happy Christmas All !

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  • 9. luckyjim said… ”It was a floater”.

    As a student I used the same method of prediction prior to going out on a friday night.
    :- …..”If your [email protected] floats, you’ll get your oats”
    Trouble was, it didn’t work unless you had your lucky underpants on.

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  • Cheekie Charlie says:

    The P wave is inverted indicating an asymptematic myocardial infarction!

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  • p. doff

    Do you think you could lend your lucky pants to Gordon Brown ?

    My stools never lie. I had a kebab after the Christmas party. Next day there was a run on the pound.

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