Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Not quite as bearish as Capital Economics

'House price fall will be 35% before a rise'

George Buckley, chief UK economist of Deutsche Bank, said the slump in prices that began last autumn had only run a third of its course. He warned the property market collapse still has two years to run and will not bottom out until prices are 35% below their peak. By the end of 2010 prices will be back to levels last seen in spring 2003, putting millions of owners into negative equity. His prediction is in contrast to some property market professionals who say that the market will bottom out next summer. Stuart Law of Assetz said prices would only fall 'modestly' in the first half of 2009, hitting bottom after the summer. But Marsh & Parsons estate agents said average completion prices in Kensington and Chelsea were already down 24% in sterling, or 42% in euro terms.

Posted by little professor @ 07:29 PM (1750 views)
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17 thoughts on “Not quite as bearish as Capital Economics

  • little professor says:

    Anyone remember FP, spokesman for HPC.co.uk, on Channel 4 News earlier this year, predicting 30-40% falls from peak? At the time he was ridiculed for being uber-bearish, now his predictions are hitting the mainstream, and even looking over-optimistic.

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  • FP? I thought it was JD…

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  • Cheekie Charlie says:

    I see the “down 42% in Euro terms in Kensington and Chelsea” has cropped up. Estate agents are so desparate they are now trying to drum up interest from Euroland!

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  • Great post, LP. And let’s hope JD gets his Bentley!

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  • JD should be interviewed again and this time not say anything but in the words of Japanese Uncle sould simply say “I should like to repost the following” and then cut to this interview. He has every right to feel smug right now as does everyone on this site.

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  • Yes, lets hope he does get his Bentley, not very PC, or should that be HPC (just don’t mention the emmissions, it’s gets a few on here very upset).

    Excellent post LP, good to see FP on the main screen.

    I think he should be trotted out a little more really.

    Perhaps we should get Japanese Uncle on television to really scare the Sheeple.

    Re: the article 35% sounds alot, but some how back to 2003 doesn’t really.

    As I recall prices seemed pretty unbelivable in 2003, we just got price conditioned.

    I know my price fall prediction is -25% on all indices (by which time Haliwide will be -35%), but I do think prices are likely to go back to 2000/1 rates.

    I hope so anyway.

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  • mikedx

    Jonathan Davis (JD) posts on here occasionally as Financial Planner (FP) – so I’m led to believe.

    Although now the covers blown he may become someone else !

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  • Looks like a few of you are here

    HAPPY CHRISTMAS to everyone.

    Better get that in incase I get side tracked by Christmas preperations tomorrow, like all my shopping.

    And I hope you all prosper from enourmous house price and rent falls over the coming year.

    Any luck the Bank of England will wind interest rates up to 15% in January and apologise for making such a big mistake – oh well we can but dream !

    All the best.

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    I think I may have misheard something at 4:46 on Litt Prof’s link.

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  • 10. it_is_going_with_a_bang said…

    I think I may have misheard something at 4:46 on Litt Prof’s link.
    ——————————–

    The fact that you are PLUCKING…… different figures.. i think

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  • little professor says:

    @5 str 2007

    I agree, getting back to 2003 levels doesn’t sound that exciting, but remember that is in nominal terms. Taking into account the effects of inflation and the devaluation of sterling a 40% crash will take to affordability levels years before that. The price:earnings ratio is the figure to look at.

    Oh, and merry xmas everyone! It’s been a good year for bears, but I dread to think what’s going to become of the economy and the country in 2009. I never thought things would snowball as widely and as quickly as they have. Ho hum. “Things can only get better”

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  • Watching that reminds us what an asset to HPC JD has been. And what a loss it would be if he were not ‘available’ to speak on our behalf in the media.

    There is nothing like being right to have the director/producer/chief editor calling.

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  • little professor says:

    14 tinker – “what a loss it would be if he were not ‘available’ to speak on our behalf in the media”

    He’s already gone, mate. Resigned his position as spokesperson for HPC earlier this month, due to some name-calling on the forums. He issued a ‘back me or sack me’ call to the mods, but didn’t get any support, so left.

    TBH, it was a bit childish the way he flounced off in a huff, but really the mods and admin of the site should have backed him up more, he has been an invaluable asset for the cause and was the only person prepared to give up his anonymity, rather than his detractors who were hurling insults from behind the safety of an online screen name. It’s all very sad. The owners of this site have done him a great dis-service.

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  • LP

    I never knew anything about that, where was all that posted ?

    In fact I thought it was JD’s site which he sold on.

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  • little professor says:

    str – see:
    I am no longer HPC spokesman

    I don’t think the site has ever belonged to JD, he was just a regular poster who stuck his neck out for the rest of us.

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  • Cheers LP

    I thought I’d lost the ability to read and understand for a minute but judging by the following comments I’m ok.

    I wonder, was this anything to do with FP post the words ‘Time to buy boys & girls’ several weeks ago when the FTSE bombed to 3700 or so ?

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  • I’ve never bothered with the forum – I always stick with the blog. But I’d be interested to know how many people use both the blog and the forum…

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