Monday, December 15, 2008

A 30% fall in house prices? That looks optimistic

A 30% fall in house prices? That looks optimistic

Barclays head John Varley's prediction of house price falls is unusually candid for a bank executive. But the signs are that it's still hopelessly optimistic. Prices could drop further and for longer than most people realise...

Posted by damien @ 12:12 PM (1965 views)
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44 thoughts on “A 30% fall in house prices? That looks optimistic

  • David Smith's Sub Prime. . . says:

    “….Banks were taken in by the house price bubble just as much as householders…”

    No they weren’t. They and Crash Gordon (Unelect) new full well what was happening but chose to ignore it.

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  • This really does depend on the area, but some property could effectivly become worthless. I remember back at the time of the last property crash terrace houses in the north of England exchanging hands over a pint in the pub for a few grand.

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  • Mmmmmm, my predictions??? I reckon my 3 year old will be collecting a 2 bed semi with his Macdonalds Happy Meal by 2011.

    ;o)

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  • Hello David Smith’s Sub Prime. I guess you are a new user given the name.

    Are you saying that the banks and the government knew house prices would fall. That it was some sort of conspiracy ?

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  • luckyjim, David Smiths Sub Prime has been around here for a while.

    Here’s a thought. Here on HPC, we should be able to fairly accurately predict the bottoming out and recovery using extrapolation of all of the data we have? Why not put something together and send it out?

    Hell knows, all of the other economists don’t have a clue, and we’ve done a much better job of predicting the current downturn’s course than them!

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  • luckyjim
    said………..Are you saying that the banks and the government knew house prices would fall. That it was some sort of conspiracy ?

    We are in Alex Jones yard on this. He thinks and says he has seen the papers to prove this was planned around 15 years ago.
    It was planned to implode the world’s economy to allow international banks to buy out other banks and worlds inferstructure on the cheap.
    Alex has also said that this is a pretext for one world currency and a centralised bank that will tax people on carbon use, tracking almost everything one does.
    Cashless society, veri chip, total enslavement.
    HIS WORDS NOT MINE. I personally remain open minded, but find this more interesting as things are developing.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    Crunchy – Such a plan would depend upon a group of world leaders and bankers who were capable of long term strategy and organization upon a scale that is clearly beyond
    the kindergarten abilities we have witnessed and suffered. No, this lot are not even worthy of a Blue Peter badge.

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  • I originally was interested in economics/houseing, but as most of us I think would agree, it has become somewhat of a journey.

    A very interesting and varried one I think.

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  • 7. gone-to-colombia
    I have no further comment on this conspiracy!

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  • 7. gone-to-colombia

    Does it start to make sense then?
    No further comment.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    Crunchy, I suspect that our views might never meet, where you see a cunning plan I see idiotic leaders.
    Frankly, in the midst of all this chaos I would almost welcome the future you fear, at least it would offer some kind of certainty.
    Having said that, the veri chip future you describe would never happen in South America, far too crazy a place for that.

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  • 10. gone-to-colombia

    I never said I had a formed view!
    But would rather not write at lengh about such a thing.
    We are all on personal journey’s trying to make sense of this chaos.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    Ah true, true.
    I agree, what is happening requires from us all at least a consideration of our former understanding.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    Ah true, true.
    I agree, what is happening requires from us all at least a consideration of our former understanding.

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  • 13. gone-to-colombia

    I would rather be a third right than run the risk of being totally wrong.

    Totally right is unobtainable or just very lucky.

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  • I have only ever been wrong once. That was the time when I thought I had made a mistake when, in fact, I hadn’t.

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  • I agree with gone-to-columbia: “where you see a cunning plan I see idiotic leaders”.

    People in power have the freedom to screw up royally and still keep their jobs. We see it in government, we see it in big companies, we see it anywhere where people have entrenched positions of power. These people don’t have to worry about the consequences of being wrong – they still get their fat pensions and juicy pay-offs. Unfortunately for the rest of us, when they make mistakes the consequences affect us all.

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  • last_days_of_disco says:

    Its not beyond the will of man to exploit this situation. Everyone knew in their bones it couldn’t last. I think the old Labour boys are chortling away happily thinking of how they are going to get their glorious state owned council housing all back on the cheap so they can have the good old days again. All rather sad really.

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  • 10. gone-to-colombia

    Idiots v Pre-meditated plan?
    I go for idiots every time. As I’ve said before, there are certain types (with a grandiose sense of their own importance) that create crises (accidentally) through their incompetence which they then blame on someone else and then tell everyone that they are the only ones with the unique skills to lead everyone out of the situation they’ve created. I’ve seen completely incompetent people rise to the top of organisations in this manner – it runs counter to the concept of a meritocracy but happens all too often.

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  • 16. drewster

    Again, Is it starting to make sense then.

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  • 16. drewster
    A screw up to you maybe something quite different to another. Pherhaps the pay master.

    Look at what has happened to Tony Blair. Making more money than ever.
    Does that make sense?
    Sense is all that I am looking for and I am finding it in strange places.

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  • We live in a mediocracy.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    ‘We live in a mediocracy.’ – Very witty, very true!

    But in a way it’s more profound than that.
    I see it as being a form of Plato’s cave, those in the ‘mediocracy’ who inhabit their collective cave seem to be unable to grasp the more perfect forms outside, or comprehend other possibilities. We are, therefore, condemned to continue down the course of logical situations that are followed down to the end of their illogical conclusions.
    Have we lost or did we ever possess the creative ability to see out of the cave where more perfect forms might be found.

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  • “I get fed up with commentators who write that if the International Monetary Fund says house prices are overvalued by 30%, prices have to fall 30%.”

    David Smith, May 2008.

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  • Thought so!

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  • I get fed up with people who like that too. If house price were overvalued by 30% they would only need to fall by 23%. Duh.

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  • Polite talk and chart analysis.
    How sublime.

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  • It does seem western society is heading down the pan, who would have believed lending money to people who have no way of paying it back was a bad idea, who would have believed allowing people who are openly antagonistic to your values and civilization to settle in your country was a bad idea. It seems that as a civilization we have become senile and heading towards the graveyeard at breakneck speed.

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  • mrmickey
    gone-to-colombia

    I guess it all must be an accident then. Ok lets just say you are right. I am just interested about how many more of these happy accidence will occur
    and where it will lead us all. I think when that happens we will all discover THE SENSE.

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  • Yes it is comforting to believe there is some master plan going on for world domination which explains world events, the reality is we live in a scary world full of nutters who have no more idea of whats going on than your average Gibbon.

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  • 26. luckyjim said…
    I get fed up with people who like that too. If house price were overvalued by 30% they would only need to fall by 23%. Duh

    LOL! Spot on – very revealing comment!

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  • 30. mrmickey

    I disagree it is comforting to think the world is ran by Gibbons, because that way you have a chance to out smart them.
    It is the possibility your alternative that is far more disturbing and scary.
    Very uncomfortable. With this alternative one has no way of winning.

    With respect.

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  • Gone-to-colombia says:

    In the absence of logic in creeps faith. The belief that some higher power is ordering all behind the scenes is a form of faith. I’m with mrmickey, this form of faith offers a kind of comfort against a nihilistic reality.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    In the absence of logic in creeps faith. The belief that some higher power is ordering all behind the scenes is a form of faith. I’m with mrmickey, this form of faith offers a kind of comfort against nihilistic reality.

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  • 33. gone-to-colombia

    Please, I would rather agree with you.
    I would feel quite superior.

    But I feel I am drawn to another strain of thinking that is not quiet yet conclusive.

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  • Yes when people stop believing in god they don’t believe in nothing they believe in anything.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    ……………..and this has got nothing to do with feeling superior.

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  • That’s an impressive number of comments on one thread.
    You’re not related to malct are you crunchy?

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  • No I am not.
    The fact that this threat is so long and is conspicious by certain peoples absence may speak volumes.

    You are more than welcome to your views and I will have for respect them.
    Perhaps groups of people are wired differently and gravitate to certain conclusions.

    I just have a problem with all of us just wanting a pathetic house of our own to live in payed for with an honest yearly wage.
    Something is very seriously wrong and I dont think it is an accident.

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  • Welcome Crunchy.

    I think you and Gardeniadotnet have the potential to become really good pals.

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  • 42. p. doff
    Thanks for the welcome.
    Not looking for a buddy. On here to try and get closer the final part of my zigsaw.
    Moved on from charts, sweet talk and thinking that our Government has our best interests at heart.
    beginning to feel that fear and greed are not the only emotions that move markets.
    I few other strange things as well.

    I hope this is OK with this site. All debates could do with a little counter balance.
    Back slapping never acheived anything but a red back.

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    I’m all for a vigorous debate, you’re fine with me Crunchy, my only problem is that you just can’t buy a crunchie here for love nor money!

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