Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The recession, the credit crunch, the housing collapse and the bear market have not run their course

It Isn't Over

Buffett: great but not infallible. Most of all, Buffett despite his long experience and savvy hasn't run into a crisis quite like this one because, pure and simple, it has no true precedent. That alone anyone should give anyone with fewer resources than Buffett, intellectually and otherwise, pause. Contrary to what he's saying, we can't remember anything that deserves to be called a bull market that had to be caught early and it certainly wasn't true of the last two we've enjoyed. As to his allusion to robins in the spring -- a nice play on it's the early bird that catches the worm -- as someone has noted, it's the second mouse that gets the cheese.

Posted by malct @ 10:30 AM (670 views)
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3 thoughts on “The recession, the credit crunch, the housing collapse and the bear market have not run their course

  • Second Mouse that gets the cheese.

    I like that and shall use it in conversation, especially when I turn up late.

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  • str 2007 – the first mouse could end up being the lucky one if the bait was laced with warfarin

    (for warfarin read interest baring national debt)

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  • mountain goat says:

    Jim Rogers talking on commodities – ”We have had eight or nine periods of forced liquidation over the past 100 to 150 years wherein everything was liquidated without regard to fundamentals. This is such a period,” Rogers said.

    I know we tend to be perma bears on this site, but I recon we are oversold right now for stocks too. The outlook is pretty bad but still has lots of unknowns. For example I read a call from an economist to just scrap the CDS market which is a cause of a lot of fear. If authorities can bailout banks for 1 Trillion then they can do this too. They are ready to throw out the rule book. IMO there has been forced selling. Buffett said quite clearly that he could not predict the future but said he felt happier with stocks than cash. In fact he said “cash is trash” right now, meaning the bond market is going to go one direction in years to come to pay for the bailout. And he said only buy solid companies with low debt and good cash flow.

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