Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The housing market downturn has reached the halfway point, says an Estate Agent

Downturn At Halfway Point

"However, it is also worth noting that we do not have the oversupply problems of Spain and the US, and, indeed, a shortage of housing will become more apparent with time." ....does this Liam Bailey write GB's speeches

Posted by bystander @ 03:47 PM (1184 views)
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13 thoughts on “The housing market downturn has reached the halfway point, says an Estate Agent

  • So all those empty BTL flats are a figment of our imagination then.

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  • On a brighter note, perhaps now Madonna is getting divorced she’ll P off back to the US.

    We can only live in hope….

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  • Actually thats a reasonable piece. A 30% drop peak to trough probably isnt too far off the mark, especially when you factor in three years inflation taking it to c-43%. I doubt prices will start to rise again by by the end of 2010, but they probably will have stopped dropping in absolute terms.

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  • in his dreams

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  • I reckon 30% is a bit light. We’re 12% down already and we know the next few months will be big drops because of the mortgage data, and by the time that’s over we’ll be just STARTING the recession which will probably go on for a couple of years. Throw in fire sales of BTL’s and second homes and I reckon, whilst JU’s 95% is still a bit optimistic, 50%+ is becoming likely, rather than merely possible.

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  • Can anyone please explain to me why it’s so important for house prices to rise? If your property is a home and not a sodding investment then it doesn’t really matter what it’s worth. Do we want a repeat of this current debacle so that people can start using their houses as cash dispensers? I have sympathy for first time buyers who bought at the top of the market but again if it’s a home and they can afford their repayments then stop worrying about what it’s worth. I hope they continue to fall so that the BTL brigade get out and allow the next generations the opportunity to buy at sensible prices. As far as my home is concerned it’s where me and my family want to live and quite frankly it can drop 95% for all I care.

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    A 50% drop from the peak is required to reconnect with wages and it’s wages that will pay for it one way or another. If wages fall then the drop will be greater and watch out for the overshoot.

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  • theboltonfury says:

    not had even a 5% fall round my way so far.

    House sold for 209950 last month, this was the asking price in Jan 2007 for the one next door!

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  • Bilko – completely agree. We all need somewhere to live like we all need to eat. Nobody jumps for joy when food prices rise so why do they get so excited when houses cost more? It’s because this country of ours has become so lazy that people would rather MEW their house like an ATM than work for a living. They deserve everything they get!

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  • why should it only take 2 years for the real economies to recover. In previous recessions, it took an average over 10 years for the economies to recover. Considering the state we are in (doubling of public debt,bankrupt banking system), I just cannot see how it will recover so quickly.
    Again, pumping billions of pounds in the economy wont achieve anything there is no confidence in the future. When people fear about their jobs and how they are going to pay for their prime necessities, they dont care about how much liquidity there is in the market. They just dont consume.
    The government is still trying to make us believe the problem is the lack of liquidity. It is not, it is a solvency problem. It does not take 2 years to reverse unfortunately.

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  • i think the estate agent who said this should lay off the ecstasy and look at whats happening around him

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  • theboltonfury…

    Nothing is selling. The denial stage hasn’t really got going. “My house must be worth £150,000 because,er,because, erm…I said so and proprty allways goes up (more property cliches to follow)”….I think they must be putting something in the water….

    Wish it was the blubbermint, I reckon we could all hold their collective heads under long enough…..

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  • (in an american stadium announcers voice)

    Ladies and Gentlemen…..

    ….The property CASH COW has left the building…..

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