Tuesday, October 21, 2008

the end of the long period of growth in owner occupation

Housing Market 'Crash' Until 2011

A housing expert has told Sky News that part of the property market has crashed and many people will no longer qualify for mortgages. Fewer sales show that parts of the property market have crashed, said Miles Shipside, commerical director of Rightmove. He said house prices will hit rock bottom in 2010, causing problems for those who need to borrow money. "I think we're going to see a paradigm shift in the housing market. I think a lot of people looking at housing in the future will not qualify for a mortgage. "First time buyers perhaps are going to find that lenders are going to be a lot stricter."

Posted by malct @ 08:36 AM (1615 views)
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42 thoughts on “the end of the long period of growth in owner occupation

  • Eyes_wide_open says:

    Yeah but, the “fundamentals” are “sound”…

    Unemployment… going up.

    Interest Rates… irrelevant.

    Inflation… far higher than the fudged stats reveal.

    Demand… the money or the confidence is not there even if the aspiration is.

    Exports… there has never been such a high demand for ringtones and Only Fools and Horses DVDs has there?

    Pound Sterling… being devalued with an irresponsible government bailing out banks and buying unwanted new builds.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    There will be 3 down phases of this crash:

    1. 2008 – early 2009
    2. summer 2009 – autumn 2010
    3. spring 2011 – autumn

    Phase 1 will finish when IR rates are slashed to 2pc and HPs are 25pc down
    Phase 2 will be led by oil rising to $400 a barrel and massive food inflation
    Phase 2 will finish when “dark energy retrieval” systems replace oil/gas/coal
    Phase 3 will be led by the end of materialism.

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  • theboltonfury says:

    s2r1 – how can you be so sure?

    using the word ‘will’ goes a bit further than having a hunch

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  • If you join all the dots on the home page chart of all the crash bottoms and project the line on – you can predict where the crash will flatten out – or is that too simplistic?

    I think average house price will reach 80-90k. Which means 200k in London.

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  • I thought Russell Grant had disappeared from our TV screens. What a relief that was, now he’s back and he’s sold 2 and renting 1.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    theboltonfury,

    I know “will” sounds a bit much.
    I’ll downgrade to hunch then.

    I have used the 3 models of Calleman, Armstrong and LSR affordability index to make these predictions.
    The shape of the crash fits the Elliott wave graph too.

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  • If only I could shoot calleman armstrong and the ancient mayan civilisation I would surely do so.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 @ 2…..

    Sorry I have to disagree S2R1 (see p.doff – I am about to disagree with s2r1 – But I’m sure he’s not worried about it though)

    I think there will be 3 phases to the continuing crash.

    1. 2008 – end 2009
    2. end 2009 – end 2010
    3. 2011 – 2012

    Phase 1 IR rates are reduced from 4.5% to 3.5% – HPI down 30% from peak (Aug 2007)
    Phase 2 Oil will rise to between 100-120$ a barrel – The economic cycle will mean demand will decrease for a while
    Phase 2 Deflation will mean that inflation will reduce to about 3.5% (although blubbermint will tell us 2%) – HPI down to 40% from peak
    Phase 3 HPI will reduce to 50% from peak and will possibly continue to make further, smaller falls from peak.

    I would dearly love a great reduction in materialism, but like capitalism, it will continue.

    Holdin out – I know S2R1s predictions may appear to be more radical than most, but many other radical predictions over the last 200 years that people just laughed at, but in hindsight many people had to eat their words.

    Darwin, The Wright Brothers, The discovery of micro-organisms. People with any sort of vision from the norm are always ridiculed. Remember when this site was absolutely full of bulls who completely ridiculed the notion of a HPC. The maintained their stoical and rigid views that the “sound fundementals” of low IRs, low unemployment, strong economy would prevent any drastic reduction in property prices. These people were obviously either really quite stupid (a few), beleived what everyone else told them (you can fool most of the people all of the time) or just plain vested interests who knew the party would come to an end and wanted to milk it for every penny (liars).

    There has been plenty of discussion recently on this blog about people with quite radical, or even fanciful views. I for one hope that everyone, and I do mean everyone, feels that they can contribute to whatever articles are posted here.

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  • Well said nooneo

    Do you think it’s remotely possible that phase 3 could include

    Baby Boomers still in denial about falling house prices and have set up their own Estate Agency that markets houses with green carpet and salmon pink walls full of G-Plan furniture at 2007 + 15% price levels.

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  • Eternal Sceptic says:

    about time we had an outbreak of avian flu, just in time for christmas. Plenty of houses for all then, but no economy left.

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  • nooneo, I’m not having a go at predictions. It is statements like the Korean war happened on a given month in a given year therefore Interest rates are going down 25 basis points next Tuesday – said with certainty. At some point in time something always happened. A little more humility and little less astrology wouldn’t go amiss.

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  • from the article summary

    Miles Shipside, commerical director of Rightmove a housing expert has told Sky News that part of the property market has crashed

    – and many people will no longer qualify for mortgages

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  • holding out…

    I do think we are in almost completely new territory. Even great sages in the economic world are floundering around wondering what’s going to happen yet. Banks that lasted through 2 world wars have gone, the US has started to utilise socialist thinking to save their sorry @rsed financial institutions and the environement is decidedly unstable.

    We’ve had ridiculous wars in the middle east, the US is apperently being run by a trained monkey with an IQ lower than 100 and a republican ex-leader of the entire US armed forces has just declared for a Black Democratic presidential candidate (I suspect that this isn’t so much a black issue with Colin Powell but rather a desire to get someone in the White House who knows the difference between his @rse and his elbow).

    I think all bets are off as to where we will all be in 10 years time. And, although I think S2R1s views are a bit “out there”, I for one would dearly love to see the place change radically from the corrupt, over commercialised and basically crap system of doing things that has led us up the cul-de-sac that we currently inhabit. Otherwise it will all settle down and this monstrous boom and bust cycle will just keep going.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    inbreda,

    “If only I could shoot calleman armstrong and the ancient mayan civilisation I would surely do so.”

    Well Armstrong has been in prison for 8 years without a trial – so he has suffered enough I think.

    And the Spanish got there before you. Still, if you follow Bruce Parry around you could always blast a few indigenous tribes after he has finished filming them – LOL

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  • ‘Radical predictions’

    I’ve been watching this forum for the last five(ish) years and for each one of those years people on here have been predicting the catstrophic demise of the housing market (swiftly followed by an apocolypse according to some).

    Well just look at the graph on the hpc home page.They’ve been wrong for four of the last five years! All this gloating now it’s eventually happening is a bit rich. Any moron could have predicted it would end in tears at some time.

    FYI I sold my house in mid 2004 (I got spooked reading this site) then blew the equity travelling (not this sites fault). However, if I’d have stayed put for six months longer I could have gone business, you bstds.

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  • So sold to rent or whatever your name is. Are you saying that materialism will end in 2011? Also, Can you please tell what Dark Energy Retrieval is and how far advanced this technology is?

    I am grateful. Rumdiary?

    There will be 3 down phases of this crash:

    1. 2008 – early 2009
    2. summer 2009 – autumn 2010
    3. spring 2011 – autumn

    Phase 1 will finish when IR rates are slashed to 2pc and HPs are 25pc down
    Phase 2 will be led by oil rising to $400 a barrel and massive food inflation
    Phase 2 will finish when “dark energy retrieval” systems replace oil/gas/coal
    Phase 3 will be led by the end of materialism.

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  • Nooneo – You say “We are almost in completely new territory” – Go back a year and that’s what they said about house prices only ever going up. Noone would deny these aren’t interesting times and I would dearly love to see a life where people who frequent the “I saw you coming shop” (Harry & Paul) do get their comeuppance. But I’ll base it on looking at current events and what history teaches us and not astrology and quack science.

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  • Happy Mondays says:

    s2r1. Still, if you follow Bruce Parry around you could always blast a few indigenous tribes after he has finished filming them – LOL

    Very funny…

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  • 7. nooneo said…”I have to disagree S2R1”

    S2r1 has made predictions about the down phases of the crash – based on his pet Calleman and Armstrong models. You have made your own contradictory predictions, but you have not said why you think S2R1 is wrong.
    Is it because you think that there is no substance to the Armstrong and Calleman models?.

    A yes or no answer will suffice.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    “S2r1 has made predictions about the down phases of the crash – based on his pet Calleman and Armstrong models”

    And the LSR housing affordability index too.

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  • p.doff @ 14.

    I don’t believe in the ability to predict in the same way as s2r1. I therefore don’t believe in the Armstrong or Calleman means of prediction. I have stated this many times on this blog (and possibly been a bit rude in the process). But in the same breath I don’t believe in God or that we know very much about the world we live in, or that the next Conservative government will be any less corrupt or self-serving than the present shower. Nor do I believe that the world will really change unless their is both a serious change in the mass of the populations conciousness or without a serious amount of destruction (which, although maybe a different route may be realised, is actually quite in line with s2r1s main arguements when he employs his methods of prediction!).

    Please don’t ask people to limit their answers (like to one word or one sentence) as the answers you seek can’t possibly, always, be so polarised.

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  • 16. nooneo said..”.I therefore don’t believe in the Armstrong or Calleman means of prediction”. So thats a ‘no’ then.
    How about the Mayan calendar; do you think that has any merit as a tool for prediction?

    Just interested in your view really.

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  • from the article summary

    I think we’re going to see a paradigm shift in the housing market. I think a lot of people looking at housing in the future will not qualify for a mortgage

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  • Hi Malct. You wouldn’t be trying to steer this thread back to the original article by any chance, would you?

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  • theboltonfury says:

    nooneo

    we’ve been in much worse times than this before. Much. much worse

    utter desitution for so many people in europe before ww1, pointless wars? 1914-1918 springs to mind with 750,000 brits killed alone. This war included middle east wars, gallipolli, a full attack on the Ottaman empire and an invasion of Iraq in 1916!! 40,000 killed in 1 day at Gallipolli

    following this we had 15-20 million killed by an influenza pandemic, followed by the Great Depression, followed by another world war 8 years later, which included mass genocides and nuclear attack. I’d say this is pretty bad for a solid 25 year period

    I think you’re overhyping it quite a lot to say we are even remotely close to new territory. In my opinion, this sort of stuff is just par for the course

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  • 19. p. doff said…
    Hi Malct. You wouldn’t be trying to steer this thread back to the original article by any chance, would you?

    Tuesday, October 21, 2008 01:08PM
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    I just think that there’s more than enough to cope with focussing on analysis of the past 100 years (OK 300+) and current events, especially given their dynamics in terms of depth of change, speed of evolvement and global perspective, that falling into the time wasting trap of diversions and distractions over predictions is not only pointless but dangerous.

    The evolution of consciousness at this moment in time is enevitable considering the rate of massive wealth extraction and the fact that most people are asleep whilst they are being robbed. Some will awake and see the thieves, others will not.

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  • I’m with you on that one, theboltonfury.

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  • What Bolton says.

    Trouble is, people spending too much time on this site are surrounding themselves with concentrated negative stuff peddled by a small but persistent minority. It has become a negative feedback loop and has taken on a mind of it’s own.
    Some people need to get out more.

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  • 21. malct said…”falling into the time wasting trap of diversions and distractions over predictions is not only pointless but dangerous”.

    At last, dear friend, we are in total agreement.

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  • theboltonfury says:

    p.doff

    or spend a bit of time reading around a subject to gain a sense of perspective as opposed to imbibing masses of current articles to build up a real head of negative steam. Things need the benefit of perspective as opposed to sensationalism

    this is a fact – if we presented todays problems in a moaning voice to multiple periods of history they would just laugh at us and tell to come back when we have something serious to tell them, as they chewed on bone marrow in the workhouses

    This is why I don’t get the model pushers who are predicting chaos and enlightenment. If enlightenment didn’t follow the period that I highlighted above then why will it now – in a period now that is a walk in the park compared to that. Just when will it get bad enough for us to see the light? I mean we talk of economic meltdown… in 1930’s there was a 100,000,000 mark note in Germany and still their conciousness was unaffected

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  • watching you guys in action, always brings a smile to my face.. it is like kids in the playground squabbling.. then the bell sounds for end of “playtime”, then when there is another break, and normal service resumes…

    in my opinion.. I think if you look at the theories, philosophies, religions, spiritualism, etc, there is something in it.. it stands to logic in my view, that with the acceleration in population & technology, that we are or will be arriving at a point shortly where we have to examine who we are and our purpose. I say this because the day-to-day is merely a distraction. If you think of the planet in which we exist, birth & death. The pressing question should surely be: What is it all about? The danger is that people can lose themselves with this thought. As we have grown and learned to exploit or utilize the planet, so too has the human feeling of power, strength & confidence has grown.

    As an inquisitive being, I believe we will eventually outgrow or grow bored of Earth seeking further advancement. In my view, like the building of pyramids, which must have required a well regimented or co-ordinated approach, similar things will be applied shortly. Meaning that like with cutting grass, the populations of the world will be nurtured, organised & even managed to achieve our future objectives, let’s face it, human beings are progressive beings, and just think of all the deaths since the start of this civilization, in truth a mere memory, one thing is for certain, we die in terms of our body (old age), but where we go afterwards no-one really knows. What is certain though, that these philosophies, religions, etc, had extremely advanced knowledge, whilst having primitive facilities to work with. That in itself defies logic, I say this as we are taught about the evolution of man from the ape etc, but it is merely a way regressing the human mind, and in another sense a point of familiarity (a beginning), as if you look forward, and imagine what is ahead, there is no finishing point, no end. Infinity. And to echo comments seen regarding the Calleman / Mayan, foer some people the vastness or comprehension of the infinite would simply drive a lot people to despair.

    That’s my take on it.. answers on a postcard…..

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  • p. doff @ 17 said..

    “How about the Mayan calendar; do you think that has any merit as a tool for prediction?” – Why don’t you ask me my views on meat production or whether I like women in thongs or knickers !!! I told you I don’t belive in predictive sources in my last post, Would you like to know which side I dress on?

    You don’t know when to give it a rest do you. I’m no rising to the bait (again) mate. You are just proving that you are either a complete **** or are a spinner of info to P people off or a plant. I would happily place a bet on the former.

    theboltonfury @ 20…

    “we’ve been in much worse times than this before. Much. much worse” – Yes and no.

    Your reference to times of war, I think, are correct, and to the flu epedemic and indeed that 25 year period ending in the shameful nucleur attack on Japan. But the world has moved so far on from these things that there relevance is diminished by both globalisation and technological and scientific advances.

    Our ability to either prevent epedemics and pandemics is greatly increased by anti-biotics and other medical advances. The problem with globalstion is that we are now more interdependent than ever before. I believe these are unprecendented times. We appear to have learnt nothing in the last 100 years, to prevent what is a mssive assset and credit bubble from nearly destroying the financial basis that we all now rely on. The world , to me, appears to be stuck in a post medieval monetary system, with the US and other large economies, completely at the mecry of a few extremely rich and powerful organisations, idealogies and governments.

    The scramble for resources and power (energy) is being driven by trying to support the unsupportable economies that rely on massive growth, year-on-year to remain viable. This plainly can not go on for very much longer. The entire western civilisation (and let’s not forget that all the emerging economies are taking on western, materialistic principles) wants to buy everything they think they need, cars, clothes, toys, gadgets etc. the list is seemingly endless, and then wants to replace them all again in 3, 5 or 10 year cycles ! I think this materialism and the fact that products are deemed to be out-of-date or redundant in such a short space of time makes the situation much,much more unstable. People all over the world, walk around in T shirts in the middle of freezing winters, with the heating banged up to over 20c and drives around in gas guzzling 4 x 4s as if this commercial vision of the world can just go on ad infenitum ! We have even started building crap shoody homkes that won’t last 30 years before needing major renovation or replacing.

    I am a firm believer that everything is not alright in the garden, the hippies are/were right, we are wrecking the place and it’s only when we actually see the system start to go t!ts up that anything will actually be done. All this p!sssing about turning of a few standby buttons and putting up wind farms is just tokenism and this present financial disaster is early proof. The Americans are rejoicing today because the price of a gallon of petrol has fallen below $3, wow! I guess the environmental, financial and other related impending global disasters have been avoided then.

    The trouble with just looking at historical references with a view to trying to fathom what will happen in the future reminds me of a friend of mine that spends as much time looking in the rear-view-mirror when he drives, than actually looking forward !

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  • Dark Energy.. is that the thing you have in WC on the Saturday morning after heavy night out on the Guinness and the obligatory Curry.. joke!

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  • Yeah, this “enlightenment” and “evolution of consciousness” stuff really is silly. People might develop an understanding of the current system, but an evolution of consciousness? How exciting.

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  • stevie dee

    your comments appeared after rumble the bumble

    don’t you have a password, you damn well should have with comments like that.

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  • 30. p. doff said…
    21. malct said…”falling into the time wasting trap of diversions and distractions over predictions is not only pointless but dangerous”.

    At last, dear friend, we are in total agreement.

    Tuesday, October 21, 2008 01:41PM
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    so why do you keep doing it then?

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  • furious at bolton

    lol, just got back from the allotment

    clear blue skies, puffy white clouds, a cool autumnal breeze.

    A variety of trees and a mix of olr cottages dot the landscape around the 60 or so plots

    covered in home grown food and odd little tool sheds.

    the birds are singing and fellow growers are smiling.

    you know what furious @bolton

    you are right, I should get out more.

    and so should you

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  • 33. Nooneo said…”I’m no rising to the bait (again) mate”

    Having apparently upset you previously, I was merely attempting to build bridges by engaging in some reasoned debate on a subject which I know we share the same opinion on. You have however chosen to respond to a polite question with a tirade of insults.
    Had it been my intention to bait you, then I am afraid that the tone of your reply means you have already risen to it, but it seems that whatever I say will generate the same unfriendly and irrational response from you. I think it best that we just agree to ignore each other from now on, don’t you.

    37. malct said…”so why do you keep doing it then?”

    Yep Malct you’re right I shouldn’t. But predictions are not the only source of time wasting diversions and distractions. You seem to have cornered the market in most of the others.

    PS. Nooneo, your posts are still too long.

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  • theboltonfury says:

    malc – you’ve lost me there mate

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  • bolton – it’s true – life – real – happened – I took your advice and got out.

    no complications – your points were valid

    except – are well, never mind

    it’s just you didn’t take into account my historical per – oh it doesn’t matter

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  • theboltonfury says:

    except I never told you to get out more

    the outdoors is a fine place though

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  • Bolton

    I think he might be confused. I did say something about getting out more, although I didn’t mention anybody specifically.

    I wish I’d been outdoors today rather than stuck inside tiling the conservatory floor. There’s only so much bending my back can take.

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