Thursday, October 2, 2008

find house prices in your are

House price trends by region

Please can someone explain why most areas that I look at in here show price rises annually and not falls. Those that do show falls are relatively small This goes against all the press articles I have been reading stating that prices are falling by 13% annually???????? Now I am really confused

Posted by george monsoon @ 02:55 PM (1332 views)
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20 thoughts on “find house prices in your are

  • george monsoon says:

    I am currently having a heated debate with a friend at work, who refuses to believe that house prices are falling.
    I have viewed the graphs for our area on here and the figures (from the land registry) for “purchase price” not advertised price, appear to be rising, so I am really annoyed now, because I cannot find any concrete proof to throw at him.

    Telling him about the current credit crunch and explaining that the housing bubble has caused this is not washing.

    If anyone has any reliable figures that I can go on, please post here

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  • voiceofreason says:

    A lot of the problem is that so few houses are actually changing hands that these graphs simply have no data after Jan 2008.

    Only £143m mortgages in August !

    I found this to be a problem when checking out holiday home hotspot prices. Simply nothing has sold for 6 months.

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  • Doesn’t your friend listen to the news, George? A tiny bit of research would lead him to, for example, the Nationwide website (www.nationwide.co.uk/mediacentre/PressRelease_this.asp?ID=1272) where he can find the most recent press announcement and a PDF document with some juicy graphs and a link where he can find chapter and verse on their methodology for measuring selling prices.

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  • george monsoon says:

    So where are the figures for 13% annual drop coming from. Land registry is showing only 5% drop annually??

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  • voiceofreason says:

    I guess Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove, Hometrack all use sale prices.
    UpMyStreet uses Land Reg sold prices.

    Maybe for sale prices have fallen 13%, but not filtered into sold prices through lack of volume ..?

    Just a theory.

    I have been running PropertyBee on my browser since May, and there are plenty of £25K reductions in the £300K range, and £50K ones in the £500K. So about 10% ish.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    The housing bubble did not cause the credit crunch; debt, and destruction of proper regulation caused it. The fiat money system make credit booms and busts inevitable. Simply,The booms fund too many of the wrong type of busines’s=corporate socialism.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    As soon as the market understands that businesses won’t give returns & when derivatives become unprofitable, i.e. BTL, the flow of fiat money goes elsewhere, pushing up the cost of capital for already inefficient or bloated business models.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Point your friend to propertysnake.co.uk – now listing over 250,000 reduced properties!

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  • Am I mistaken or the grey curve marked as “national average” is different for each area?

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  • gardeniadotnet says:

    voiceofreason said…A lot of the problem is that so few houses are actually changing hands that these graphs simply have no data after Jan 2008.
    Only £143m mortgages in August !

    The music has stopped.

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  • Crashwatcher says:

    “I guess Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove, Hometrack all use sale prices.
    UpMyStreet uses Land Reg sold prices.
    Maybe for sale prices have fallen 13%, but not filtered into sold prices through lack of volume ”

    Rightmove are asking prices so are not real sold values.
    Nationwide and Halifax are the agreed value (at the time of mortgage agreement) so correct and up to date.
    Land registry are sold prices as registered after the sale has been completed – always seem to be a few (3) months behind (so aroung 6% in price drop terms)

    I don’t understand why they use the past 12 months to calculate an anual rate. If the price is falling at 1.7% per month the annual rate around 20% and has been that for 3 months now not 13%

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  • re “The music has stopped.”

    and someone’s taken all the chairs away

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Yes Malct, but there wasn’t, isn’t & possibly never will be a shortage of housing. Definitely no shortage of propaganda. The real shortage is in grey matter & its shortage, yet we are offered financial solutions, when all we need is education in reality!!

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  • Am I missing something here? But I think the Up My Street graph is next to useless. It simply charts the average monthly value of sales from the Land Registry, a line that, when viewed over a decade or so, can show a useful trend of price changes but when looked at to show recent sudden changes is easily skewed by, perhaps,a larger volume of very high value sales and an unusually low volume of low value sales (FTBs) It tells you nothing about price reductions or asking price to achieved price differences . Just like the rest of the info on the site, it’s too vague and generalising to be worthy of attention. My advice is ignore it.

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  • Another thing is that a lot of the mortgage approvals at Halifax and Nationwide are remortgages rather than purchase/sales, and these are figures that don’t end up on the Land Registry index.

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  • George
    I’ve had a quick look on that website (can’t get on with it myself) I guess the figures you’re looking up are Net House Price figures (another website that lists sale values per street). They get figures I believe from Land Registry so by the time they publish figures they are probably about 9 months old. 9 months ago Halifax and Nationwide had only just started falling.

    As the others above say small data volumes can have strange effects on numbers. eg in my area South Bucks the odd £1.5m+ sale against a back drop of very few sales in the 3-500k bracket can make it look as though prices are going up.

    I think there are a lot of hopeful sellers out there that have asking prices set 10-15% above Sept 2007 which is the month I’d call peak.

    Although I’m currently sticking with my 25% prediction and will do until every register shows this, the general consensus is for 35% falls peak to trough excl. inflation – I think this is Capital Economics figure. At the current falls being registered Nationwide & Halifax will be showing this in a year. As you’ve no doubt read, a few on here predict much larger falls and they may well yet be proved right.

    For what it’s worth I also know someone in total denial.

    House prices have got to where they are through loose lending. Loose lending won’t return in a hurry. The only people who can still get ‘oversized’ mortgages are those with 30%+ equity. Those with 30%+ equity aren’t generally buying unless they have to because they’re in the main old enough to remember the last crash and although they may have recently forgotten about it they are now being reminded everyday.

    We haven’t started with major redundancies yet. I hope we won’t. It would be nice if ‘sensible’ lending criteria by itself could just get house prices back down to affordable levels and we could all just carry on.

    Unfortunately there will be some pain between here and the bottom and for a while longer.

    Anecdotally, I was speaking to a neighbour who’s house is for sale and I was pointing out how prices had got so high due to the recalculation by BTLers basing figures on interest only (instead of repayment) and even in some cases taking on a property at a loss to save tax on the rest of their portfolio.

    He was offered 20% below his asking price by a local BTLer and turned it down as too low. Incidentally the house has been on the mnarket for 2 years and is 10% above the figure that it didn’t originally sell at. Work that out if you will.

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  • george monsoon says:

    Thanks…

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  • “planning4acrash said…
    Yes Malct, but there wasn’t, isn’t & possibly never will be a shortage of housing”

    With four million people on council housing waiting lists, and hundreds of thousands living in “temporary accommodation”, it looks like a shortage to me….

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  • The market will find its own level regardless of what the agents tell us.

    Clearly buyers will not buy at these prices – so until reality returns, agents better start looking for alternative employment.

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  • Myhouseprice.com says….

    “We have complete coverage in Scotland from December of 2001, prior to that we have most but not all of properties sold.

    English House Prices and Welsh House Prices are supplied based on the date they are sold and can take up to three months for all the sales in a given month to be registered. As a guide we have around 33% of all sales which took place in April 2007 increasing to 66% at the next monthly update. The subsequent update will virtually complete our record of all sales in April 2007 save for the last 1-2% which may take longer to be registered. ”

    I don’t think this explanation has been updated since May last year but it gives an idea of how their data lags behind.

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