Saturday, October 4, 2008

“Economist Fred Harrison proved to be the canary in the housing mine – but few were listening”

The ManWho Predicted The Property Crash

The 50 pence racks in the nation’s bookshops brim with books promising an Armageddon which somehow failed to arrive – other than for the author. One thinks, naturally, of The Great Reckoning: Protect yourself in the coming depression by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, published in April 1993, on the cusp of what turned out to be one of the world’s great stock market and property booms. But don’t think that being proved right gives your doom-mongering tome a longer life on the bookshelves. Stuck down at around 22,000 on the Amazon sales chart last week (which roughly translates as: one person has bought it in the past week) is a fascinating work called Boom Bust: House prices, banking and the depression of 2010, by Fred Harrison.

Posted by neo-serf @ 11:45 AM (1396 views)
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6 thoughts on ““Economist Fred Harrison proved to be the canary in the housing mine – but few were listening”

  • Mariothegreat says:

    I read the book and, to be honest, I think is rather accurate although quite boring.. there are many other signals concerning the 2010 as a milestone of a very long and strong depression, unfortunately you should be Nostradamus to know exactly.:

    Ceulx qui estoient en regne pour scavoir,
    Au Royal change deviendront apouvrie:
    Uns exilés sans appuy, or n’avoir,
    Lettés & lettres ne seront à grans pris.

    translated in English:

    Those who were in the realm for knowledge
    Will become impoverished at the change of King:
    Some exiled without support, having no gold,
    The lettered and letters will not be at a high premium.

    My interpretation:

    Many experinced people ruling the states will become poor at the change of the presidence, someone will run with the gold, Shareholder and share will be useless…

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  • Fred Harrison is a leading proponent of LVT and blogs as The Renegade Economist.
    Now that house prices are indeed crashing, the original purpose of this site , to discuss if and when this would happen, seems less immediately interesting.In the wait- and- see period while people watch how far prices will go , a debate of economic fundamentals seems to have broken out between Land Value Taxers and opponents of fractional reserve banking who also tend to believe in the Mayan calendar,the Illuminati and the New World Order.(Though this description might betray a personal preference.)
    May it not be time for a multiple-voting proof poll on this site (don’t ask me how it would work) to find out where the strength of opinion lies?

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  • I think it was Christopher Fildes (a financial journalist, now retired) who said that the economic upswing always got out of hand when the last person who had to deal with the last crash retired or left the organisation. So that if you were a bank manager in 1991 you were probably in your 40s, and by 2008 you probably had taken early retirement or been pushed out in some reorganisation. The young guns replacing you had no real experience of the last bust so swallowed whole the mantra of all booms “it’s different this time”. Hence the current mess. And in 15-20 years time we will do it all again. Isn’t life great!

    Read Christopher Fildes book (He brought one out when he retired – a collection of his columns from the Telegraph and the Spectator). It will tell you all you need to know to avoid getting caught up in bubbles like this one. I saw it all coming, based mainly on his advice.

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  • Sold And Loving Renting says:

    I bought this book last week on Amazon so i guess i get a mention in the article!!!!

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  • so how much of a price drop did he predict then?

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  • Acrobat_747 says:

    Fred Harrison made a youtube video in which he claimed there was a line of 800 people in Dublin queuing for food parcels. This is a completly made up event and never happened. Fred Harrision tells nothing but made up lies. If he makes a comment like this, how can any of his material be reputable.

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