Thursday, October 16, 2008

Charts

FTSE 100 (UKX)

Ug!

Posted by malct @ 08:24 AM (4127 views)
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22 thoughts on “Charts

  • Gordon Brown: Statist or Fascist?

    Taken from Gordon Is A Moron by Vernon Coleman

    Vernon Coleman

    `What, then, is the essence of fascism? It is the outcome of capitalism in decay. It is the retort of the propertied interests to a democracy which seeks to transcend the relations of production implied in a capitalist society…Success means using the state-power over the nation partly to coerce and partly to cajole it into acquiescence in his rule. That acquiescence is the sole purpose of, and the sole justification for, the methods that he uses. The only values he considers are those which seem likely to contribute to his success.’
    Harold J Laski, Reflections of the Revolution of Our Time

    Gordon Brown is sometimes described as a `statist’. I doubt if even his closest admirers could disagree with that description.

    Statism is described in the dictionary as a political system in which the state has substantial central control over social and economic affairs. The word `statism’ accurately summarises the sort of policy favoured by New Labour for if ever there was a nation which could be described as statist it is Britain as it has been moulded by Brown. I cannot think of a significant British politician who has been more of a statist than Brown.

    But the word `statist’ doesn’t go quite far enough.

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  • I want so very badly to be wrong about what I am seeing. It would please me no end to be shown to be a paranoid and delusional fool. I can hear the clock ticking the way you sometimes do when you can’t sleep and every sound is magnified. The clock is connected to a very unusual bomb which goes off in stages that are triggered by pressures in particular atmospheres. I guess you could call it a Reality Bomb.

    What am I talking about? Why am I telling you this? This isn’t the stuff of Smoking Mirrors. Well… every day now when I get up, I wonder… is this the day? I know that the day is coming. The day is coming when the world turns upside down. There will be an event or several and suddenly… suddenly a great many things that might have seemed tangential or unrelated are going to join hands and they won’t be singing Cumbaya. The financial system IS going to fail like nothing before. You aren’t going to be able to get certain things and the utility system… well; you really don’t want to be in a city.

    extracts from

    Les Visible

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  • It’s a bit bloody out there, but the buying opportunities are mounting.

    Some people will be playing the rollercoaster and profitting from it, but personally, i’m waiting to see what happens when the promised bailouts translate into gilt and treasury auctions.

    Who has the money to buy all this new govt debt? And where is that money invested at the moment?

    We could see a further dip in equity prices, followed by a sudden reversal as gilt prices collapse..

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  • So Malct is a disciple of Dr Vernon Coleman…That explains everything.

    Personally I think It’s a shame this site has been hijacked by such crazed sources. Right now I guess the traffic to this site must be massive as more and more people are drawn to it -to come across this kind of rubbish must have them wondering why they bothered.

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  • Ftse is going down to at least 3300 and the sooner it does the better. Then I will enter the market.

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  • What do people expect with inflated house prices, credit default swaps, etc, etc… If the foundations are made of straw, then the market will correct. But I have one question, what happens to all these CDS’s, CDO’s that clearly can’t be paid. They are unregulated, pure gambling, and thus in my view should be void. Buit like BTLers aka De Wilson’s.. I think the word is called “Tough”, because it is a threat to national security. This is not Gordon Brown’s fault. And I have learnt in life, that it is no use jumping around on the guy who is trying to remedy what is clearly a serious situation. Nobody complained about house prices as they were going up, the same is applicable with these financial instruments. Yes, the government should have had their eye on the ball. But it is not their fault if dangerous individuals similar to BTLers have gone out and created such problems because of their desire for wealth. Can GB fix it? Yes, he F***ing Can!

    These individuals involved in this dillusional/dysfunctional behaviour should declare their holdings, and face the consequences. To many mummies boys!!!

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  • UT – all about where and when. Where? Am guessing either a double bottom or a bit lower. have 3650 as a target with longs at this ams open / then longs at 3750 and 3650 oco @ 4200. All against [email protected] (+25%@4250). Have been filled @ 3870 (25%) on the off – with a low of 3825 (IG – or 3840 official), so looks like could be double bottom. We are now back to 4k, but still 5% short @ 4950 and 50% short @ 4475. Either it hits 4200 or makes “proper” new lows for me to get out of the rest.

    When? Well God knows! – After this am thinking choppy consolidation (triangle) before another new (last for a while but NOT final capitulation) low – although the probablility is receding we cant fall forever without some sort of decent rally! After these two swing moves thing we will be bobbing along at the bottom of the beautiful briney sea (volatility reduces), which will then be time to short options because the prior volatility will make them bit too expensive. But thats not for a while yet – year end rally perhaps?

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  • From the FT:

    The spread of the three-month Libor interbank rate over the Fed Funds rate, a key measure of distrust between banks, has dropped only from 3.25 to 3.04 percentage points. Last year, this spread was stable at 0.13 percentage points. And THE TYPICAL 30-YEAR US MORTGAGE RATE IS BACK ABOVE 6 PER CENT, bringing risks of more damage to house prices and consumers.

    i. Glad to see that monetary easing helping the little folk
    ii. Say hello to depression and goodbye to the stock market

    Can we please go back to saying that Gordon is a moron in the press? Please?

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  • Why this obsession with High Street Retail Sales ? It’s over ! People will lose their jobs and the so called standard of living will change (for the better in my opinion) but the current debt based system is broken beyond repair. Apparently the remedy is to take tax we haven’t payed and lend back to ourselves with interest. Nice ! If it wasn’t so serious it would be kind of funny. All species have to find a balance in their environment,so this change is urgently needed.

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  • uncle tom, techieman, beartil2010

    How do you think the established european and american heavy dependence on cheap far eastern (China, India etc) imports will influence how things pan out? Surely it’s a huge factor.

    The basic scenario has always seemed blatantly unsustainable to me.

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  • Malct Fundementally im not into fundementals as a techieman always goes by what the tech indicators tell him. I would assume there are 2 ways of looking at this – there normally is! And often the obvious way is not the right way. Nonsensical? Yep – thats what i found when i first tried to rack my brain round the fundementals. Look as the BRIC charts. [Brazil Russia, India , China] not a pretty sight.

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  • Malct,

    In the aftermath of all this we will see some fundamental global re-balancing, with the value of currencies in the developed world falling dramatically against those of the developing world.

    Commodities are likely to tread a central path – it all adds up to a lot of inflation..

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  • paranoia blue says:

    Not only V. Coleman. See: The Bumper Book of Government Waste 2008 – Brown’s Squandered Billions, Matthew Elliot & Lee Rotherham.

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  • We must be getting close to fifth night destruction now 😉

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  • 5. Ijjhall said…
    “So Malct is a disciple of Dr Vernon Coleman…That explains everything.”

    oh my dog not another one! – ljjhall get a password and debate real time.

    So you, whoever you are, have decided that I am a disciple of Dr Vernon Coleman, and that’s not a good thing – well BIG deal.

    Take a quick look over here –

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/10/blog-years-of-financial-disasters-18270.php

    – and notice how VC’s name keeps NOT popping up amongst the quotes.

    Then when you’ve taken paranoia blue’s advice seriously, you might want to read “PLUNDERING THE PUBLIC SECTOR” by David Craig with Richard Brooks.

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  • techieman

    re last night. You are spot on. I’ve been doing too much reading and looking for excuses, which really is going thru’ a bit of denial as I had my mind set on this happening next year and shouldn’t have based yesterday on profit taking.
    This is a long day though and I’ve still got a feeling it will end up pretty neutral on the FTSE. All down to when the DJ kicks in later. This will decide the day. I see you’ve got most angles covered – Good luck !

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  • Techieman: – thanks, well aware of the Ted Spread. To detail a bit more, I am specifically hacked off that GB has allowed himself to be portrayed as a saviour, when all he ahs done is guarantee that banks won’t go bust. He has not removed the key problem of deflating and misvalued assets on balance sheets and the concurrent mis-accounting; hence we cannot have stability as no-one will want to lend to each other; hence continuing Ted Spread issues, and slide in stocks.

    Gordon is still a moron.

    By the way I love your posts as they often confuse the hell out of me.

    MalcT: The situation is definitely unsustainable, the fundamentals are that we do not produce stuff and are not creating wealth (US & UK); the developing world will continue to grow in wealth, and we will devalue our currencies; whenever this deflation ends – could be a long time – welcome to big inflation.

    UncleTom: Thanks for the chorus – I agree wholeheartedly! Except there is the chance he is a devious, lying, conniving scumbag. That’s harder to rhyme with though.

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  • Plato – as i said no offence last night, wasnt trying to be rude of a smart ar5e. Yes its done enough on the downside, although i wouldnt rule out a new low today or over the next few days, but to be honest up until now this has been pretty easy (big moves are in my experience easy to trade BUT they are very hair’em scare’m) and from now on it gets harder and more choppy. To be fair ive made my money from this move, anything else is a bonus. As you said my orders are in and , barring an upside gap (a possibility) then i have a cushion on the open trades. I will be watching closely this afternoon. I detach my mind from when these things should or shouldnt happen, the charts amount to a map of it. As ive said before though its at times like these when you think you are going to make a million in the next few hours that you have to be careful – as its likely to bite you in the ar5e! Bit like West Ham after scoring a goal!

    Bertil2010 – yep good analysis as far as i am concerned this spread is pretty key. I agree with the tenents of the song, actually its one of the annoyances : How can one of the main architects of all this stuff now be hailed a hero? The other annoyance is all this crap about HPs still being robust because there are high employment levels (and thats from a so-called economist). Yes there was but you complete [email protected] but unemployment is a LAGGING indicator!

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