Saturday, October 4, 2008

Buy to let is over

The king and queen of buy-to-let

"We are not a penny behind on our loan payments," says Fergus. "We are reasonably safe, I think. If we go under, then everyone's going under." Ditto! it is a well known fact that over 60% of BtLetters piled in the market in 2006-07... so what does that say about their financial stability?

Posted by confused76 @ 10:46 AM (1313 views)
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17 thoughts on “Buy to let is over

  • stillthinking says:

    I get the feeling of an enormous disconnect between London and the rest of the country as far as flats are concerned. There has not been the same level of development in London and you can still find enormous plots of vacant land. Consider these two examples (of many but these are prime sites), right next to Kew Bridge on the river overlooking Kew gardens there is a big empty site. Next to (east) Hammersmith Bridge again overlooking the river there are several large empty sites.
    There are no flats though.
    From the King and Queen I would infer that they definitely see the possibility of everything unravelling. Nice line though, we are over 60 so our greediness suddenly stopped.
    I don’t think so.
    What a shame that the job situation in London is so much better than the rest of the country, which kind of sticks you here.

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  • “‘thanks very much, it’s been a nice ride but the party’s over'”

    Well they are obviously not deluded and daft. Unfortunately, I don’t think their example is typical of the psyche of the average Buy-toi-letter.

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  • So it’s gone from what BTLers insisted was a 100% cast iron guaranteed investment to ‘reasonably safe I think’ in the matter of months. The next phrase will be ……………..

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  • I reckon they will be in negative equity by the Summer, back to teaching Maths!

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  • Was it not Fergus who said in an interview some years ago that there will NEVER be a housing crash because of a shortage of houses?…….I think we should be told!

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  • Hang on a minute. What happened to the “we’re in it for the long term” mantra?

    Thanks for the schadenfraude with my morning coffee, confused76.

    I hope these people lose every penny. I really do.

    This is more amunition for Mark Wadsworth’s LVT.

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  • Well here is a business I will take great pleasure in seeing a collapse of.

    These two have taken advantage of people and their situations for their own greed.

    They have a hugely concentrated level of risk and only 35% equity. The houses they own will certainly be subject to 25% falls at least and lets hope 40% to make sure they loose everything.

    And to cap it all if they were good property investors they’d have been quietly getting out over the last 2 years.

    To announce to the world they will start selling at Christmas as the party is over has just cost them hundreds of thousands of pounds.

    If I was buying a property in that area I’d make sure I wasn’t lining their particular pockets.

    I also hope all the families in the area get good deals buying these 900 homes at auction.

    These 2 are not clever but greedy fools who deserve to fail.

    There arrogance of saying ‘if go down so does everyone else’ sums them up. I hope I never have to do business with anyone with that attitude.

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  • I’d like to keep in touch with this story as it proceeds onwards and ‘downwards’.

    ‘Will the Wilsons walk away with millions or be left with crumbs from a collapsing market? Fergus is cautious about precise figures, but reckons his properties are worth “around £250m” and that the typical loan-to-value is around 65%. That suggests they have an equity cushion of some £90m – and a mortgage of about £160m. While some householders joke they have a mortgage the size of a small country, in the Wilsons’ case it’s actually true .’

    I’m no maths teacher but my friend Pythagoras says they’ve no chance and the noughts on the end mean nothing.
    £250m ? Reckons?
    65% LTV ? That’s far too big
    £90m ? Pure Guesswork — No maths here!

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  • I very much doubt Fergus had much to say during this interview, the link to his website has been down for a long time. http://www.wilson-property.co.uk
    I assume he is just promoting he has nice 2 and 3 bedroom houses to sell and promoting the right to buy to his tenants.

    The link below is the BBC interview with Fergus in June this year, good to see he is consistent with his views.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7432256.stm

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  • It is a well-known fact that anything presented as a “well-known fact” isn’t so well-known and is probably not a fact.

    Come on, get the journalism on this site to show the Beeb and Evening Standard how it is supposed to be done instead of matching them shit-for-shit.

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  • flooding the market aint gonna help him. tenants losing jobs. increased interest rates (which lender in their right mind are going to fund these two morons?). increased voids.

    and considering -12.4% drop in prices already, he has already lost more than 30 MILLION pounds. Party is over – and he has just missed it.

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  • Their website is down, as sosoon says:

    “This Account Has Been Suspended
    Please contact the billing/support department as soon as possible.”

    Perhaps not paid the bill…

    However, click this! Judith Wilson’s simple guide to property investment

    The number one rule is:

    Never use your own money.

    Schadenfreude? Oh yes.

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  • This insideous couple were, until only a few months ago, running BTL seminars encouraging people to get into the BTL market. There are numerous articles written by and about these two, extolling the virtues of the BTL market and how to make money by using equity gained in the rapidly rising market, to fund your next purchase.

    They, with all the other VIs helped ramp up the market, pumping it up to this ridiculous level. They have helped grow the bubble, whose burting will undoubtedly bring these numskulls down.

    They will go bust if property falls by more than 35%. Therefore, they will go bust.

    I do hope they take a few of the property pornstars with them !

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  • You’ve got to hate these two haven’t you? More people who think their general good luck is an indication of their genius.

    They’ve simply bought too many properties and by buying so many have helped the bubble to continue increasing, so they’ve been ended up paying more for many of their properties than they would have had the bubble not been so overly inflated. Add to that the fact they have zero diversity in terms of location and it’s going to get messy for them.

    “…but the party’s over.” Firstly Fergus, it’s flaming obvious to EVERYONE that the party is over and secondly, it was actually over about a year ago and you’ve made the classic mistake of enjoying yourself so much that you’ve hung around for too long.

    I remember around March/April time he was talking about being offered £250m by some Russians for the whole portfolio but he thought it was worth more. At the time it was bleeding obvious he should have done the deal and how much he must now regret not doing the deal. It’s just going to get incredibly messy for them now as they are going to have to put houses onto the market piecemeal over a number of years whilst the market crashes harder and faster than ever before.

    I hope buyers in the Ashford area realise that the longer they stay out of the market the more desperate the Wilsons will become. With prices dipping as drastically as they are they could be very desperate very quickly. And why buy something this month when the Wilsons will be releasing more next month and the month after and the month after and the month after……………….

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    Not much more that I can add, but these two deserve a special effort.

    “the prices for two and three-bedders around here have not fallen much”.

    Yes Fergus, that’s because you have still been buying them………..up until now.

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