Tuesday, October 14, 2008

And then some!

House prices 'could fall another 10%'

"Dave Miles, Professor of Science at Imperial College London, said economic models suggested that if interest rates stayed the same and prices fell by a further 5% or 10%, meaning property would have lost around 20% of its value from its peak, then the housing market would stabilise." Yeah right ...there again they might fall by a further third, to hit HPC's overall consensus of a 42% peak-to-trough fall. Who are these people trying to kid?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:34 PM (2763 views)
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5 thoughts on “And then some!

  • Might fall a further 5% or 10% … before the end of the year and then continue falling through 2009!

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  • japanese uncle says:

    Must fall a further 55% is the right answer, as everyone is more or less aware now.

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  • A further 5-10% my @rse. The average house is still 6x the average salary.

    I think we have two options here:-

    1. Get real, houses go back to 3x the average salary.
    2. The government starts stupid lending back up, and since they seem destined to own all the banks, this is now possible.

    I would suggest once 50% plus has come off the UK housing market the growth is limited, the BTL brigade are taxed out of the game and people start treating houses as homes once again, instead of the poxy investment vehicles they have become.

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  • Who are YOU trying to kid.

    25% from peak is what most informed experts expect -not the nutters on this site who have been predicting a crash since 2002/2003.

    30% is possible as the market overshoots.

    The point of equilibrium is at the point were BTL becomes profitable. There is a floor to the market.

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  • Letsgetreadytotumble says:

    “The point of equilibrium is at the point were BTL becomes profitable”
    But as prices drop, so to will rents.
    The point of equilibrium will be 3.5 times the average wage plus a deposit.
    The VI brigade seem to forget the general financial turmoil, and the total financial meltdown to come. House prices won’t really matter then and will be worth sod-all.
    BTL should not have tax relief. It gives am unfair advantage against the FTB’s. Houses should be homes first and then investments.
    This country has too many spivs now, and they need thinning out a bit. This is what happens when the economy is so reliant on money markets and service industries. I think this country is finished and will become a banana republic. Maybe we could all head off to France and form a community there.

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