Monday, October 6, 2008

A summary

Financial crisis at-a-glance: 6 Oct

1649: The FTSE 100 Index of leading shares closed down 7.85% at 4589 points, a drop of 391 points. 1638: The Cac 40 in Paris closes down 9%, the worst fall in percentage terms since its creation in 1988. 1534: Russia's dollar-denominated RTS stock market closes down 19%, its worst one-day fall on record. The index closes at 866.39 points, down 65% from the all-time high reached in May this year. 1435: Trading on Brazil's stock market is suspended half an hour after opening following a 10% fall on the main index. 1430: On Wall Street the Dow Jones opens down 208 points, or 2%, at 10,117.

Posted by matt_the_hat @ 05:23 PM (2370 views)
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15 thoughts on “A summary

  • What are the buzzword answers to this problem? Oh yes, low inflation, pent-up demand, works migration. The UK housing market is as safe as houses. You can bank on it!!!!

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  • Im a bit knackered after that!

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  • matt_the_hat says:

    Dow Jones -481

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  • omg ! – or dog even – I thought those figures on the left were years !

    I was just about to say hoy mush ! what about 1688 and 1694 lol

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  • matt_the_hat says:

    Dow Jones -552.43

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  • worst in 21 years ?

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  • Techieman

    I told Mrs Iguana that the significant date would be in November, what think you?

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  • iggy – s2r1 has your answer below

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  • S2r1 has the answer apparently!!! Well there you go then. Malct is right in one way – i did say below that i think it difficult enough predicting tomorrow let alone next week! Where do i think we go from here? Im really not sure how much more there is in this move. Last week i said that the following day would be a turnaround tuesday (yes you can check last monday’s posts), I then said the bear would resume. Did i think it would go this low YES but NOT in one day!!!! Do i think it goes lower – well yes but thats really an easy call – its how much lower.

    The way i trade dictates i need to see some semblance of a low before being confident to go long. Could this be next week (confirmation of a low i mean) NO but does that mean there wont be a low next week? Not neccesarily. I have tried to suss Gann’s price and time but its very hit and miss. Divergence between momentum and price is a possible key.

    I can tell you that this is gonna be very volatile over the next few days, in times like these traders can make and lose fortunes. 4200 looks like as good a level as any, and if it gets there i will liquidate some more puts. I have about one quarter of my position left. – I effectively bought back (i.e. liquidated the puts) scaled down today.

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  • techieman
    as jack c said earlier somewhere

    the ice is melting creating unchartered waters

    so perhaps being a pilot isn’t so safe as being the monkey in the crow’s nest !

    can’t believe I jus said that

    hope somebody knows what I mean

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  • Well you got me! Always VFM though Malct. Anyway buying options is relatively safe – i have said for a while now that doing out and out futures is potentially very dangerous (if you get the direction wrong it can be really expensive).

    Yours, Dan Dare [pilot of the future ;-)]

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  • techieman

    Can’t see anything other than very little movement in either direction for a while UNTIL governments make a unified announcement. Could be mass Nationalisation on the horizon which should stimulate a bounce. BUT not for long— nothing sustained.
    On the other hand the time margins between highs and lows are so close together only the bravest will play.
    Originally I was expecting this early 2009. I’m still going to hold with this. (gut instinct). (below 3800 by end Jan) You can laugh at me after.
    Not getting involved myself so I’m not putting (what’s left of) my money where my mouth is.
    It’s a challenge anyway as I’m a betting man. Stay cautious.

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  • Malct & Tech

    Clearly there will be a dc bounce and more failing bail outs, I cannot place reliance in Mayans or Alien abductions so must rely upon my view of the markets and the idiotic posturing of the headless chickens in government and central banks.
    Given the speed of the current developments me and Mrs Iguana calculate that November will present a significant turning point.

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  • plato: IMO anyone can have a valid opinion as to where we go. There are some tried and trusted indicators as to when we COULD hit a bottom, but im not concentrating on that. A move to 4200 will give me alot of profit, so at that point i either just run some small and use an average to get out or if it were to really tank id get out of everything. I am in a good position here were i will probably take some fun trades rather than take some to make money. I have no idea as to what might cause a rally but thats not what the technicals are about. Mass nationalisation surely would cause the share prices to plummet – because the shareholders a la NR and BB wont get much….or perhaps thats part of a deal now going on behind closed doors?

    Iguana: As i said i cant (without lots of work that i dont really want to do) call a bottom in the Stock market – esp. in terms of time. Once i see some evidence then that could be a different story, and to be frank if i miss a bottom because im lazy then i only have myself to blame. I have since i have been on here called a top in gold within 5%, an intermediate top in the $ – within about half % and a intermediate and full top in the £/Eur. I am not saying this to show off, just to say that im quite relaxed about things at the moment. Mistakes – of course. Long too early of Gold and lost $15 per ounce, got out of £/$ @ 1.99 (short @ 2.03) “knew” that was a mistake but all about money management. November? Yep could be will ramble on now and again when i have more confidence.

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  • plato: I think the oposite though. As decisions are made the market deals with rumours and counter rumous which will make it very volatile in my view. The mere “worry” of a unified front (or similar) will cause the markets to swing wildely. I track a volatility graph (i have to as the chart can be used to determine iof options are relatively cheap or expensive). That chart clearly goes through the roof lately (its not directional) as the volatility of the markets have rocketed as prices have gyrated so much. I can see smaller ranges but not that much smaller. When volatility is high you actually dont want to be a buyer of options, you really want to buy when volatility is low and sell when its high. Now to generate a short position in options that has no cover….hmmm not sure that would be wise at the moment.

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