Friday, September 26, 2008

Some heavy reading for the weekend

Stand by for Black Monday: Britain braced for meltdown

The City is bracing itself for a "Black Monday" meltdown after President Bush admitted he had failed to land a bank bail-out deal. Senior market figures said the FTSE-100 could fall by between 600 and 1,000 points when the stock market opens next week if no deal is forthcoming. The frightening prospect of a collapse to match the 1987 crash was raised as George Bush confirmed that he had not yet been able to persuade senior Republicans to back his $700 billion rescue plan.

Posted by little professor @ 10:58 PM (1748 views)
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18 thoughts on “Some heavy reading for the weekend

  • The dow’s up 120 points and all interviewees on channel 4 news said that it’s most likely that some deal will be reached by sunday night..so I doubt this will happen.

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  • As some Democrat pointed out today, if we weren’t in a crisis situation two weeks ago, we bl00dy well are now, because Paulson and Bernanke have put the fear of g0d into everybody.

    Ergo, if bail out does not go ahead, it will slow down even faster, and if bail out goes ahead, it will throw a collosal brake on everything, Japan 1990s-stylee.

    But Big Picture wise, it is quite simply the case that the stock market does not go up under Labour gummints. So I’m looking at 3,500 by May 2010. In real terms, the FTSE is about break even (3,500 x 1.03^11 = 5,000) as things are.

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  • Mark, Here’s a couple of interesting statistic straight from Ed Balls from http://www.teachernet.gov.uk/management/payandperformance/pay/

    Over 10 years from 1997 to 2007 in England and Wales a newly qualified teachers salary went from £14280 to £20133 and a good experienced teachers pay went from £21318 to £34281, thats a smidgen less than 1.032^11 and 1.045^11 respectively. The average interest rate on an ordinary savings account at a retail bank over the same period is roughly 4.8% (http://www.swanlowpark.co.uk/bank0604.jsp), so if you compare that to the FTSE increase it just about sums everything up!

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  • Doom beckons.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Guys. The thing to remember is. And I’ve been a total doomster about fiat, but fiat is not reality. The truth is, and nobody will tell you this, but THERE IS NO CRISIS for anybody but the hedge funds and those invested in them, except if we let them use our money for their purposes. The real economy is poised and ready and the predator investors are ravenous. The derivatives are imaginary. They are not a crisis for anybody but the investment banks UNLESS we bail them out and let them liquidate the derivatives and invest them into the real economy, which would cause multi-hyperinflation. If imaginary derivatives dissapear in a legislative court battle, or stay where they are and slowly dissipate, we are OK. These are loaded weapons of mass financial destruction, and Bernanke, et al. want us to think that we must lay our lives down for them. It is a false flag, because the real economy is strong and the world could produce 5, 10x more than it does today with sound money and the resultant stable business cycle. Lets get proportion, understand gold and sound money, and recognise that we have these options for safe havens. That, when Bernanke Mews for money, run the opposite direction, towards gold and silver. Then you’ll be all peachy.

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  • Hmm, if things remain bad on Tuesday, I wonder what headline they will think up?

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  • gardeniadotnet says:

    @4. lvmreader said… Doom beckons.

    Welcome back.

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  • The noises out of Washington DC are far more ‘positive’ this am…Polosi, she who is Democrate leader of Congress is sayin a deal will be done. So stock market crash avoided… unless it all goes sour over the weekend of course.

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  • As usual, it’s socialism for the rich – the poor can go hang!

    See this from a later thread on this site
    http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/steigerwald/s_590327.html

    I worked in an investement bank (I’m in IT) a couple of years ago. One of the traders came to one of the software guys because he had such an elaborate instrument to book that the system couldn’t take it. The systems guy told the trader that there would have to be a change to the software to take the fancy deal, and that would take time because the software guy would have to ‘get his head around’ what the trader was trying to book. It is these deals that are unravelling now – deals nobody, but nobody, understands. It was bound to happen and the system has to be purged. just don’t let the poor pay.

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  • On all the best Hollywood blockbusters, the hero manages to defuse the bomb moments from disaster and world destruction.

    An agreement on the $700bn will be reached in time for the Asia markets to open – whether it’s right or not.

    In the meantime, the final action scenes with Gordo photographed with Bill Gates, McCain denouncing everyone and Palin taking all the photo opportunities she can.

    Oh Boy – what have they done? – this has gone far beyond the HousePriceCrash I first imagined when I visited this site a few years back!

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  • japanese uncle says:

    People, this sort of extremely volatile phase in the stock market can be the source of incredibly lucrative profits for those who are well aware of what is going on behind the scene. Proposition of the 700 Bil rescue plan, and the oppositions, seem to be all engineered to stage nose-dives and rallies in the market. Those who know the timing of each action can make really stinking profit.

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  • @pl4crash Even Ron Paul is not calling for the Gold Standard now.

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  • The financial markets are driven by anticipation – as there are no seismic surprises likely to emerge from this story over the weekend, the chances of a sudden market meltdown on Monday are minimal.

    The banks’ problems have been priced into the markets for some time, and if Congress votes this measure through we will probably see a sharp market rise. If they don’t, the markets might slip a little, but nothing to hit the headlines.

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  • last_days_of_disco says:

    I think its for real. I think they really are facing a rebellion because the representatives know they are toast if this goes through.

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  • Nobody wants their name on a “deal” knowing that in the long term all the stories behind the deal will emerge and it will become clear that, either out of knowledge or naivete [both equally bad] America’s lawmakers have signed off on an agreement with thousands of sweetheart arrangements to benefit those people need help the least. Notice that the salary agreements for executives were the first item discussed and purportedly “agreed to.”

    Especially now that we live in France and see that he means what he says, I like Sarkozy’s idea that the lot of them should be prosecuted for criminal mismanagement go to prison.

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  • @12. Makes you wonder really, although I would have a little Gold in Reserve. But in truth, having watched last nights presidential debate. These guys & most of the US political establishment are absolutely barking!

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  • Tend to agree with Uncle T that the other shoe has to drop and the mere lack of a deal isn’t the big shoe everybody is waiting to hear hitting the floor. The danger in the meanwhile is that other things begin to crumble [Washington Mutual] and are scooped up by the “government” who doesn’t even do it’s own job well and/or the new world order sponsored vacuum cleaner: JP Morgan/Chase. These are indications we should all panic and run in circles, bash into walls, etc.

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  • 7. gardeniadotnet said…
    @4. lvmreader said… Doom beckons.

    Welcome back.

    Saturday, September 27, 2008 07:51AM

    hey ho away you go _ but try to hang on to your password

    good to have you back

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