Saturday, September 6, 2008

Savills Says…….

The map that reveals how long you will have to wait until your house price recovers

Overall, Savills expects average house prices to be nearly 50 per cent higher than last year's peak by 2020 - at an average of £323,240. This is more than £100,000 higher than they were in 2007 when the average price was £220,000.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 01:49 PM (1608 views)
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18 thoughts on “Savills Says…….

  • We are now in the territory of the completely absurd. Savills must have their very own property crystal ball. They know exactly when the crash is going to bottom out, fantastic.

    Don’t panic everyone, one of the countries largest estate agents (no vested interests there then) are confident “it’ll all be over by christmas”

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  • I like that comment “trust us, we are ESTATE AGENTS!”

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  • japanese uncle says:

    Does it ever deserve any comments?

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  • gardeniadotnet says:

    “On a more positive note, Miss Barnes said that the current crisis will be ‘all forgotten by 2020’ with prices soaring again…The prediction will come as a relief to those who had begun to fear that a recovery might never happen after the recent barrage of bad news.

    Ho Ho.

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  • Hmm.. how is it all going guys. … i appear to have a little time on my hands which is a rarity recently.

    Right. Excellent. Starting on some commentary again, unless I become swamped with operational activity again. It could happen.

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  • Looks like a Business Plan which Savills will produce to their Bank to convince them to lend over the next few years.

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  • Are there any firm bases for these assertions or is it all an attempt to talk up house prices?

    What is factored in here? Is it:

    1. Collapse of the US Auto industry, or

    2. The election of a Prime Minister with integrity or

    3. Oil Prices doubling, or …what?

    Anyone can make silly guesses – these guesses are inducements for investors to buy in NOW, and of course create commissions for Savills.

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  • I notice Miss Barnes did not mention or factor in the end of money and gobble enlightenment.

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  • gardeniadotnet says:

    >…and gobble enlightenment

    Hasn’t that been banned?

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  • “She blamed the downturn on ‘the lack of mortgage finance’, with buyers unable to get a cheap loan – particularly young people without a deposit”

    These people are not wouldbe buyers, they are JUST people!!

    I am unable to obtain a “cheap loan” to buy my dream Ferrari!!!
    Are Ferrari counting on my business when things get better after Christmas???
    Don’t think so!!

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  • “Overall, Savills expects average house prices to be nearly 50 per cent higher than last year’s peak by 2020 – at an average of £323,240. ”

    Given the hyperinflation about to hit the UK, I’d imagine by 2020 average house prices will be IRO £1M. Mind you, a loaf of bread will probably be £100.

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  • I suggest anybody considering taking Savills crystal ball seriously, should have a look at their 2008 prediction for prices on the HPC homepage!

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  • Utter baloney – nice comforting ‘soft landing then hey-ho off we go again, on the great property roller-coaster’

    I won’t attempt to make any prediction that is as detailed as theirs, but what I will predict is that this is going to be the dip where the roller-coaster comes off the rails.

    The market is going to fall to a level that leaves millions of homeowners in deep negative equity, which in turn will leave the mortgage lenders with immense losses from defaults.

    The economic consequences will be very severe, with high unemployment and a government that sees a simultaneous collapse in tax receipts and rapid rise in benefit claims.

    The ability of the government to borrow on a scale that will plug the gap is far from certain, and it is probable that gilt yields (and therefore interest rates) will be levered up.

    A great many people, including many high earners, will see their earning ability collapse, and with it their ability to pay their mortgage.

    When the dust finally settles their will be one big political imperative, that no political party will dispute for the next generation:

    NEVER AGAIN – housing supply must meet demand, and the control of house price inflation has to be a priority.

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  • What on earth makes a ‘prediction’ of Savills worth printing? Their take on the housing market is no better than mine.

    Most of the pundits were predicting a flat year in January, so how on earth someones prediction for 2020 can be given
    and credibility is absolutely beyond me.

    My prediction, houseprices will be 18.664% higher than they are now in Ashburton Road, Croydon.

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  • I think Uncle Tom has summed things up nicely there.

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  • Hang on a second……..Savills might be right we don’t know whats around the corner, in 2020 a house may well be worth £300K +…

    but then again so might a loaf of bread.

    Look what financial mismanagement did to Zimbabwe!!.

    “Life, don’t talk to me about life.”

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  • As a rough rule of thumb, by 2020 (12years from now) prices will be approaching double what they were in 2003/4. Why? Because prices move in cycles. In 1992 a 2/3 bed terrace, in Ipswich, for example, would have cost £40k -ish. In 2004, £95K. In 2020, I would expect to be paying about £160K. Inflation will mean much of this increase is painless.

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  • Every Vested Interest has to pick a date when house prices and other assetts will soar in Value and the world will be very very rosy.

    The one thing that is not acceptable is that we really may be entering a major correction, who can really say that the correction will not be for the next 100 years? who can honestly say that house prices wont be 3 x average earnings in 20 years time, true i agree average earnings will be far greater but overall who can say, i can remember the days that houses were boarded up as too expensive to run, when Council “rates” made life so expensive versus negligable values it wasnt worth the effort.

    Will reality return as a medium i wonder? i suspect it will, houses wont be boarded up but they wont be traded mainstream as a precious resource either.

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