Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Received wisdom says house prices will keep rising because of all the immigrants. What if the immigrants leave?

Like house prices, immigration could fall too

Most of today's papers talk about Fannie & Freddie, but here's an article less obviously related to house prices. "WE NOW LIVE IN AN ERA of high mobility and rapid demographic change, and - like house prices - what has gone up can come down. For example, the migration assumptions underlying government predictions [...] are very probably too high. Already about half of those economic migrants who came to Britain from Eastern Europe after 2004 have left. The number of applications for work entries fell by more than 20 per cent between comparable periods in 2007 and 2008. You don't have to be Nostradamus to realise that the coming recession will see that drop further, possibly dramatically. The predictions, then, are pretty worthless."

Posted by drewster @ 01:13 AM (426 views)
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One thought on “Received wisdom says house prices will keep rising because of all the immigrants. What if the immigrants leave?

  • mark wadsworth says:

    The impact of immigration from Eastern Europe has been wildly overstated, esp. as net immigration/emigration is relatively small. Those guys (and guyesses) got on their bikes and looked for work and hats off to them, frankly. Commonsense and hard facts tell us that net migration between the UK and other developed countries is negligible.

    The big net immigration is from the New Commonwealth countries and the Third World. How we respond to that is a political issue..

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