Saturday, September 20, 2008

Guardian’s property Q&A’s – reality dawns

Are house prices going to crash or are we looking at swift recovery?

Whichever way you look at it, this week's events are hardly going to help a property market that was already in the doldrums with prices between 8% and 10% down this year. At best, prices look set to continue their downward path to a predicted 10%-15% fall by the end of the year, followed by a similar fall next year. At worst, this week's events will send the UK market into a 1990s' Japanese-style freefall from which that country is yet to recover.

Posted by jack c @ 10:44 AM (715 views)
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3 thoughts on “Guardian’s property Q&A’s – reality dawns

  • “Any upsides?

    We’ll be talking about something else at dinner parties and what is Channel 4 going to do instead?”

    I’m sure most of the media won’t readily admit it, but our caution and dire warnings two years ago are completely justified. We are vindicated. We won.

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  • I really can’t see any reason why the last weeks or two’s revelations can mean anything other than at least 50% off property prices.

    The argument about a House Price Crash are now moot. The crash is here. The UK’s own sub-prime market is just about to kick in. Hundreds of thousands of self-certifiers, dodgy BTLers and the downright poor who have bought into the property ponzi scheme. I see no reason why the mortgage market is going to do anything other than sit on it’s hands for 2 years re-couping the losses it bought into in the american sub-prime. As prices tumble the weak and the feeble will start giving up on their dream homes and start defaulting on their mortgages and abandoning their disasterous financial millstones.

    I think the Japanese model is now , almost certainly coming here. Several years of fast falling prices, followed by no recovery at all.

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  • japanese uncle says:


    I should like to point out:

    At least 50% should be at least 67% (80-90% in London)

    Also given the extraordinary dependence on financial non-business, UK enomony will be much worse than the lost decade in Japan.

    200,000 of the 500,000 in the City may well lose job in view of the apocalyptic development for the past couple of weeks.

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