Thursday, September 18, 2008

Are there any denialists or housing bulls out there still?

How We Got Here: It's Housing, Stupid

"I would hesitate to say the worst is behind us," Achuthan said. So even with perhaps hundreds of billions of tax dollars going to AIG, Fannie and Freddie, one expert said the only real solution to the housing problem is for the correction in housing to finish running its course.

Posted by crutchley @ 12:50 PM (1336 views)
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18 thoughts on “Are there any denialists or housing bulls out there still?

  • Could this whole problem be over tomorrow if people simply stopped being greedy and dropped their prices to a reasonable level? It’s an interesting thought.

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  • The money was spent sorting out the US Financial Services industry. Mortgages, Insurance.

    The problem seems to be dropping house prices. MMmnn

    So lets throw money at the US Auto industry next…maybe that will fix it…?

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  • last_days_of_disco says:

    “Are there any denialists or housing bulls out there still?”

    Just about everyone advertising on http://www.rightmove.co.uk ?

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  • “Just about everyone advertising on http://www.rightmove.co.uk ?”

    Could that also just be neccessity, desperation or even just a genuine desire to move house?

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  • Is it me or has anyone else realised “What will Happen to the Monthly” Halifax Price Index that we all watch out for? now that the HBOS debacle is upon us?

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  • I am still here. Short sharp correction and then business as usual. Real people are not as heavily hit as you think – retail sales UP. London can reassert itself over NY as wall street has been hit harder than the city. Oil prices falling. Could be worse…..

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  • Prices still have a long way to fall to get back to fair value – measured against how much money people earn rather than arbitrarily large loans. At least now we shall hear much less of how it’s different this time – low unemployment and all the rest. No doubt there will still be many with the CML way of (not) thinking but they will fall quieter.

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  • Short sharp drop and then business as usual is not possible, because we have a solvency problem. The money has been spent and now has to be paid back. If houses fall even 30% we get bankruptcies and the surviving banks will take a decade to recover. The same applies to individuals who bought near the top.

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  • “arbitary large loans” People still had to pay the repayments out of what they earnt. They werent actually giving the money away! yes it was easier with interest only, extended periods etc etc but you could get a 100% loan in 1996.

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  • What will happen to the Halifax Monthly Price Index Figures that we all keep an eye on??

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  • george monsoon says:

    What ever happened to Glorious Sunshine?

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  • or greenbay?

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  • Maddison – you surprise me. It’s never a problem to take out payments you can’t afford, if you know the asset is going up in price. Many loans were self-cert at unreasonable levels. Even if someone could afford those payments for some time, when their house(s) depreciate – what happens when they lose their job?

    Reposession.

    Anyway, deny all you want, it won’t change what’s actually going to happen. Enjoy the ringside seat, I’m an optimist too!

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  • Stuart Law had a huge mugshot and a full leaf cover spread on the front of “The Wharf” (the local rag for canary wharf) advertising The Property Investor Show with a big headline saying “Why are conditions perfect for serious property investors?”…. In the same week that so many people have lost there jobs round here..

    He seems to be becoming more self satirising every day

    I’ve kept a copy as a souvenier

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    IT is quite alarming that a hardcore of Maddisons insist that prices are still going up, that this is just a blip. A bit like the global warming crowd who insist that temperatures are rising and that the last five or ten years have just been a downward blip.

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  • I dont insist that prices are still going up Not at all. There will be a painful correction but…… They will go back up again. It is a basic boom bust… and boom eventually. GB was never going to get rid of the business cycle

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  • We got a leaflet through our door from a couple selling their house privately in our street – not only did they want a ridiculous amount for it, they hadn’t even done their research and realised that there was an identical property a few hundered yards up the road for £6k less, advertised on a major estate agent’s website! Deluded idiots or what?

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  • This scenario is still building up maddison, watch the next couple of weeks – the sticky stuff will hit the fan in even bigger volumes,and take a generation to clear the stink

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