Saturday, August 2, 2008

Good article and graphs by IC on “crash history”

Houses down, shares up

An Englishman's home is his castle. But, having seemed impregnable just a year ago, that castle has now developed a very nasty case of subsidence. Since last July, the Nationwide UK housing index, adjusted for inflation, has dropped 11 per cent in value. Another deep, lengthy slump in UK residential property now seems almost inevitable.

Posted by jack c @ 04:01 PM (820 views)
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3 thoughts on “Good article and graphs by IC on “crash history”

  • really good article this one,good find Jackc.Now if only this “history” lesson could be taught in all schools,maybe we wouldn’t have to keep going through this painful excercise every 18 years.Or maybe its just conveniant for some that it continues?

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  • The real fall over the year is 11% but don’t forget – (1) a year ago the market was still going up, so by October-November the y-o-y decrease will be bigger and (2) the deflator that converts nominal price changes into real price changes is artificially low (like the official rate of inflation). If you applied a more appropriate deflator the y-o-y change by November could be about 15%.

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  • Good graphs.Henry George lives! Still reckon the 73 crash was worst; there was complete denial that anything was wrong.Of course if the banks refuse to finance the next housing bubble, things really could be different .

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