Wednesday, August 20, 2008

EA lets go

Salmond claim that housing market is beating credit crunch is 'nonsense'

The head of Scotland's largest estate agents has broken ranks to launch an extraordinary attack on politicians, including Alex Salmond, and property experts who have claimed repeatedly that house prices in Scotland are still rising despite the credit crunch.

Posted by ash4781 @ 10:53 PM (3071 views)
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4 thoughts on “EA lets go

  • mark wadsworth says:

    I didn’t realise Alex Salmond was that dumb.

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  • Salmond is a big disappointment in office but like a lot of left leaning politicians, is better in opposition than in Govt. When given the reins of power the system grinds them down and knocks the radical stuffing out of them completely – so many other examples of this trend with Robin Cook an obvious one – so relieved when Iraq gave him the chance to finally resign from the New Labour straightjacket and speak and act freely. But of course in legislative terms, he was then rendered harmless…

    Probably only Tony Benn has tried to stick with his left principles in government and he got slaughtered by the establishment and gradually marginalised.

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  • Well done Michael Luck! It’s great that someone from within the property industry in Scotland is standing up and telling it like it is. However, Michael Luck is not the first EA in Scotland to reveal the true state of the market in Scotland – In a press report in the Scotsman in June 2008 Savills were predicting the market would fall by 5% this year and 15% next. Jamie Macnab of Savills was quoted as saying “A year ago, many Scottish property experts felt confident that the insular Scottish market could ride out a worldwide slowdown and it wasn’t until April of this year that it became apparent that this wasn’t going to be the case. Now we are in a period of stand-off, before the market finds its new level.”

    The Lloyds TSB survey presents a distorted view of the market – the headline data shows an underlying average price increase of 9.3% for the year to July 2008 – the report states “The annual price change is measured by the average of the last four quarters expressed as a percentage of the preceding four quarters.” Therefore the data is smoothed and the latest data includes the peak prices of 2007 compared to 2006 prices! The change in the latest quarterly data ending July 2008 presents a different view of the market on a regional basis:
    North (exc. Aberdeen) -0.6%
    Aberdeen -2.8%
    Dundee – 5.2%
    Central (exc. Dundee) n/c
    Edinburgh +1.9%
    South West (exc. Glasgow) +3.0%
    Glasgow +0.6%
    South East (exc. Edinburgh) -4.1%
    This regional data shows a sharp downward trend in property prices – which has had little coverage in the Scottish media.

    The volume of property for sale in Scotland is circa double that of this time last year, with actual sales significantly down. Amazingly, asking prices appear to be held at artificially high levels – are the VI’s mentioned by Michael Luck at work here? The normal laws of supply and demand are just not working – yet!!

    Perhaps the true state of the Scottish property market is evidenced by Blackadders, a major Dudee law firm and EA, recently announcing 60 redundancies due to the down turn in the property market. There are other reports of EA’s closing offices and making redundancies.

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  • A good find, thanks ash4781. Yes, isn’t it great to see someone is talking sense about the Scottish property market.
    I would love to see the whole politicians/Scotsman/Scottish Television news/ESPC property-ramping machine exposed – anyone any thoughts? They are largely responsible for those stupid high asking prices.
    [email protected] I’m noticing a HUGE number of properties for sale in Fife, including St Andrews, and lots of fixed prices (usually a sign of a sticky market) instead of “offers over” in Edinburgh, so I find it hard to believe an increase in Edinburgh. Sharp fall in Dundee, where my sister bought in late 2007 despite my advice – prices had been rising astronomically there and she thought that would continue due to the influx of biotech companies. She also said then that I was generalising too much about the US market and it was just isolated spots where values were falling – same as my Credit Suisse advisor (whose mother is an EA in the US) told me! Now why didn’t I get her to promise to eat her hat?

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