Thursday, July 31, 2008

Down 9% in 9 months

July house price survey

"Down 9% in 9 months" seems more relevant than their own spin, "down 8.1% in 12 months".

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:56 AM (1441 views)
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35 thoughts on “Down 9% in 9 months

  • happyrenter says:

    Last month’s comment was the monthly rate of fall had slowed, oddly she didn’t say that this month the monthly fall rate had doubled…..

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  • Hee-hee. Note the desperate “but prices are still higher than THREE years ago”. A few months back it was “prices are still higher than a year ago”, then “…two years ago”. Soon they will be saying “but prices are still higher than in the ’60s”

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  • little professor says:

    God, the pace of this crash is really breathtaking.

    Just look at the annual HPI since January this year:

    +4.2%
    +2.7%
    +1.1%
    -1.0%
    -4.4%
    -6.3%
    -8.1%

    Average house prices are down a whopping seventeen grand from their peak. Just think how much you could do with seventeen grand! It’s a huge amount of money, and we’re just getting started.

    The three-month on three-month rate of decline is accelerating too.

    Can’t wait for the BBC to update their lovely HPI graph.

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  • little professor says:

    Oh, and as predicted, Nationwide’s Fionnula has movd from “house prices are still higher than this time last year” through “house prices are still higher than two years ago” to “house prices are still £11,000 than three years ago”

    Their desperation is so funny! 😀

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  • It’s almost too good. Where are the bulls? I really miss those guys. Is there another forum where they hang out?

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  • Dear Fionnula,

    Many thanks for the update on the economy and your economic forecasts with reference to interest rates going forward.
    As an economist it is good to see you are so forward looking and willing to contribute to the interest rate debate.
    I also enjoyed your comments concerning a possible recession, oil prices, swop rates, retail sales and wage growth.

    I seem to have missed the forward house price forecast piece in your report, perhaps it has been missed off or perhaps you do not cover that in your house price report.

    If you do have any opinion on forward house prices, I would love to hear them, maybe you could post them in this forum for discussion.

    Kind regards

    WDB

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  • Eyes_wide_open says:

    Fantastic news…

    As mentioned previously the desperation in the line “house prices are still £11,000 higher than three years ago” is hilarious.

    This just shows how all the “Experts” go it so badly wrong first there was not going to be a crash, but a “levelling out” or a “soft-landing”, so why wouldn’t anyone believe them when they say anything at all now?

    It looks like a crash, smells like a crash, walks like a crash and will hurt like a crash too.

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  • Soon they will be saying “but prices are still higher than in the ’60s”

    lol 😉

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  • Steve Devie says:

    Frau Fionnuala la la land!!! Ex Government Economist (NOT very surprising), with stints at the Financial Services Authority & Office of Fair Trading (again NOT very surprising).

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    @ Mark.

    Krusty’s house down here in Devon. We can get the old girl sozzled and season her hat prior to consumption!!!

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  • letthemfall says:

    wdbeast:

    I think we can all imagine what Ms Earley would say about future house prices; which once again raises the question of whether she and all the other well paid experts are merely being disingenuous because their masters demand it, or are being a little bit dim.

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  • House price graph

    Looks a bit like falling of the edge of the earth! House Price Crash – What House Price Crash!

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  • Great news, we are in rented and in the process of moving to another rental after selling up last March 07. Do ypu all think that this is going to be much quicker than before?

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  • pelethar @ 6

    “It’s almost too good. Where are the bulls? I really miss those guys. Is there another forum where they hang out?”

    I think you’ll find that the bulls are currently either:

    A. Desperately looking for a new fixed rate deal for their massive BTL portfolios.
    B. Desperately looking for a any deal on their BTL portfolios that won’t end up in the bankruptcy courts.
    C. Are taking one last gasp effort to find someone to “consolidate” their debts – Perhaps Carol Vordeman can help!
    D. Are in discussion with the receiver in an effort to save their shirts.
    E. Are preperaring to tell their partners/wifes/parents/friends that they have all gone tuts-up and will be destitute by christmas.
    F. Are currently to be found in a high street near you selling the “big issue”.

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  • July 31st? I’m sure they’ve corrected the stats to show the fact one day has not been included in the stats. Talking YOY when you know that prices have crashed even more is obviously misleading people into thinkign they’ve not lost as much as they have. Saying it’s worth more than “x” years ago will become a standing joke – if it isn’t already.

    Nationwide are clearly suffering very little mortgage business, so they’re now mortgaging the statistics.

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  • still the idiots and estate agents try and keep their old prices….. by the way we are holding a big party when prices have dropped by 30%….. Suggestions on a venue would be good..

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  • beartil2010 @ 22

    ‘The office liked the amusing music that started coming out of my pc!!!!’ I was caught out too. The address seems to be http://www.singingpig.co.uk/

    pelethar @ 6

    ‘Is there another forum where they hang out?’ That has got to be something like …. http://www.YeahButNoButSoftLandingItsMyPension.com/forums/OhLordWhatHaveIdone.aspx

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  • MMMM – not sure what happen to my post – it should have dropped into slot 24. I posted @ 11:29, not 10:29

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    pelethar, I used to watch the bulls on singing pig (.com) but I grew tired of the bravado. The last time that I looked someone called Dr Bubble was giving them a kicking but some were still refusing to lie down. I think that there are still some in the forum on this site, but I’m not brave enough to go in there too often either!

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  • @mark

    We need a link on this site for a “Thirty-Plus” party – and why not select a part of the UK that has/had the highest average prices as a venue: Bucks (or the lack of maybe !!). Perhaps somewhere easy to get to with a big parking area – like Donington.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Growler, in % terms, we ought to hold the party in Northern Ireland. And end up in the midst of some tripartite sectarian violence.

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  • Steve Devie says:

    #13 Nooneo. Is there a comparable graph from 1989 onwards (similar to the image you submitted)?

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  • beartil2010 says:

    @ Crash Bandicoot 17 – I just looked at singing pig – it’s a food website?

    The office liked the amusing music that started coming out of my pc!!!!

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  • mark,

    i reckon a good venue for the party would be outside the head office of northern rock in Newcastle, at this rate of falls we should have reached 30% by next spring.

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  • beartil2010 says:

    Thanks angonamo, nice one

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  • @22: Indeed

    I have a list of perfect venues:

    Halifax
    Newcastle
    Swindon

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  • Steve Devie @ 23

    That graph comes from the BC website – Try the HPC graphs (see Graphs in main menu above) this site has a load of useful graphs and figures there.

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  • @crash bandicoot: I kind of thought you couldn’t be serious about the singingpig.com .. but couldn’t help checking it.. the site actually exist – lol

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  • The site you are looking for is singingpig.co.uk

    Even there, people are beginning to get a bit bearish.

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    beartil2010, sorry about that dude. Like I said I don’t go there that often.

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  • Spent a little time looking around singingpig.co.uk. I only scanned through a few of the forums, it seems pretty quiet over there. There are some posters that are quite Bearish and get a lot of stick for posting. There are still some people that feel that things will get better quite soon, including someone that thinks the banks are refusing to lend to each other in order to force the collapse of their competitors … How long will the credit crunch lastTraining’.

    If you have time for a laugh check the Property Courses & Training forum.

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  • Steve Devie says:

    #28. Thanks Nooneo

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    TC, kids keeping you awake?

    Before we confront the press, we need to agree on how to prevent these bubbles happening again.

    I know the answer – liberalise planning laws and introduce land value tax, it’s that simple.
    But nobody here will agree with me.

    So let’s just party like it’s 1929.

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  • Steve Devie says:

    #35.

    I agree with you on the fact that this should never be allowed to happen again. My belief is that Housing should be divorced from speculation. I know it may sound quazi-communistic, but I believe for the health of the society and to stop any repetition, that something as radical as this must be considered. I have said in previous posts about Landlord Licensing, which would generate money to a central body (self-funded & ring-fenced). I don’t agree with Landlords owning more than Two properties, so my recommendation would be that any individual considering buying a second property would require a Licence & taxed for that too. Commercial property (stringent rules so nobody clever dick tries to bend the rules) would be exempt from this proposal, as businesses come & go. And if successful, will be able to purchase the property for the asking price. And as it is a commercial undertaking (free market), therefore it is no business of the state to interfere. The other benefit is that trade bodies, local businesses, will have to obtain licensing to work on licensed properties, generating further income from the proposal. But more importantly, obtaining higher standards and greater value. Think of Tesco’s shopping aisles as streets of houses, and the tradesman as suppliers. It’s common sense PPP. With the state owning all the cards.

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