Thursday, July 17, 2008

Anatole explains his position in more depth

The real reason why bankers feel so gloomy

Continuing his it's-all-fine-really theme, Kaletsky says: "Consider the following: In the past few weeks, US industrial production, consumer spending and trade figures have all come in much stronger than expected." --- So he's relying on government statistics to tell the whole truth and not be revised downwards later in the year? Anatole can also explain the pessimism: "The main people suffering pay cuts and job losses in the present crisis are bankers, rather than industrial workers as in previous slowdowns. Not surprisingly, this gives financiers a jaundiced view of the world." --- Wrong, Anatole, it's not just bankers. It's housebuilders, estate agents, furniture companies, builders, travel agents, airlines, JCB, Reuters, Siemens, etc. Come pay a visit to the real world some time.

Posted by drewster @ 12:44 AM (1314 views)
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9 thoughts on “Anatole explains his position in more depth

  • I do however very much agree with Anatole on this paragraph:

    “Looking at the recent indicators, the clouds are now much darker over Britain and the eurozone than the US. For Britain, the outlook is arguably even worse than for the rest of Europe because its economy is so dependent on financial services and housing, the sectors suffering the biggest hits. Meanwhile, government spending, the only other sector of the British economy growing strongly until a year ago, is also bound to suffer a severe squeeze as the public finances go from bad to worse.”

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  • For months Anatole was saying there was nothing to worry about, and the credit crunch would soon be over.

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  • beartil2010 says:

    seems he’s forgotten the one-off tax breaks give out by the us government to do exactly this – provide the us economy a shot in the arm. That will now dissipate, mortgage defaults are growing massively and consumer spending will dwindle. People have watched their stocks go down by 25% across the board and their house is worth 20% less than last year, and driving anywhere costs more. Unless they are all holding lots of gold or oil investments, spending is going down.

    ‘while in America the worst has probably passed.’

    Whatever

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  • last_days_of_disco says:

    “Gutt, serh gutt”, better brush up on my German. The fact is though, people who make real stuff are going to be laughing and I exclude house builders from this. Cars, roads, bridges, medical kit, electronics, books, food, fuel, things you need to live. And people with real skills: Engineers of all kinds, Doctors, Parameds of all kinds, etc, etc. Are going to find they are able to reclaim their rightful place in communities instead of being pushed out by Krusty and friends and bankers. That will be good. A bit more respect from all these geniuses who have looked down their noses at people who are *much* brighter and more productive than they are just because they bought a house 10 years ago. Sweet.

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    “Having said all this, however, there is nothing even in the British figures to suggest a disaster on the scale expected by most City economists – or implied by the recent collapse of shares in British banks. ”

    Funny, because I’m sure he said something similar about the current state of affairs a while back. Stating that there is ‘nothing’ in thr figures to suggest a disaster is just unbelievable.

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  • Last days – im not so sure about the germans . The problem is their welfare state is just ridiculous. Add to that the fact they go to school for ages, and are the biggest example of an ageing population in Europe (they are actually trying to encourage immigration) and you have a bit of a nasty cocktail. oh and they dont have too much of the thick black stuff.

    Re Doctors and Dentists – the problem with some of them is they are “amateur” [who isnt?] BTLrs.

    And Mr K – stockmarkets are LEADING indicators!!!

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  • What is general feeling about British banking stocks are they presently undervalued? Were will they be in say two years time: lower, the same, X2,X3? Suppose you bought RBS, Barclays, HBOS & Lloyds and held them two years. My feeling is these are essentially good businesses long term and the possiblity of them all going to the wall together is slim. These banks have been around for 150 plus years; I think they’ve survived worse.

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  • @techie,
    You’re quite right – Anatole is looking in the rear-view mirror.

    @beartil2010,
    Very good point about the rebate cheques. It’s important to realise that the US government can revise their figures later in the year, and they have already done so this year. Their figures aren’t 100% surveys of the economy: a large part is made from models that are supposed to predict the real figures. Just like the banks though, their models don’t seem to be working so well this year. In particular the US Bureau of Labour Statistics has a Birth/Death Model which is supposed to predict the number of jobs created (births) and lost (deaths). Read all about its flaws at Econbrowser: Trusting the birth/death model.

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  • letthemfall says:

    “Having said all this, however, there is nothing even in the British figures to suggest a disaster on the scale expected by most City economists – or implied by the recent collapse of shares in British banks.”

    Difficult to take bald statements like this seriously with no supporting figures. I would have thought the current figures, especially the US’s (eg FM & FM), suggest a disaster is perfectly possible.

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