A hard landing recession is now highly likely in the UK, Spain and Ireland where housing bubbles even larger than the one in the U.S. are now going bust. In these three economies the credit bubble was not limited to housing; you also had – like in the U.S. – a surge in unsecured consumer debt (credit cards, etc.) that became excessive. Add to this bust the effect of overvalued currencies and real appreciation leading to large current account deficits and you get a dynamics very similar to that of the US.

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