Friday, June 6, 2008

What we were saying 15 months ago on this site

March 2007 Archive

Ah, the nostalgia. Yes lots of "Conspiracy Theories" ( the biggest one being that there was going to be a House Price Crash ). I wonder what else that is "conventional wisdom" or truth is mistaken. Q: How can one prejudge the quality or veracity of information before one has it? A: Only a bigot prejudges.

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:56 AM (768 views)
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12 thoughts on “What we were saying 15 months ago on this site

  • Debate is good. Consensus is even better. But facts have no need for consensus. Truth needs no law to protect it. It is self evident.

    I really like to hear @P4AC’s stuff, but I can see that some are getting offended (ish). The precise point I want to make here is that back in the dark days of the late 1990s, early 2000s, anyone who said UK Houses were overvalued and were heading for a crash was derided, called a “tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist” and not invited to dinner parties, lest (s)he spoiled the fantasy of the suckers, sheep idiots Buy-To-Let brigade.

    What I do find remarkable, however, is the intolerance of some long time posters to new ideas after themselves having gone through ridicule for the best part of 4 years (in some case 7 years).

    Any time anyone wants to prevent you examining an account of some event, don’t you want to know what they are trying to hide? If what they say is true then why not simply let you examine the facts yourself and make your own mind up?

    Why the rush to predeclare an unexamined fact as gospel and then use threat of ridicule, force or ruination to prevent any dissenting opinions?

    What the courageous @P4AC is doing is exactly what we all have been doing by posting here over the years. We had a different point of view, which had facts to support it. It was a minority view, but then again so were many things.

    • Gravity.
    • The idea that the earth was not at the centre of the Universe.
    • Certain tenets of evolution.
    • Dinosaurs.

    It just turned out that we intrepid, “ludicrous” posters on HousePriceCrash were right all along.

    Now isn’t that a turn up for the books? Because we thought we were right. But we didn’t just stop there – our positions were down to the research we posted. And most importantly, they were debated.

    We debated. We researched. We sometimes insulted each other. But we all felt everyone was entitled to their views (within the confines of not threatening anyone, committing libel or inciting anyone to kill anyone else) and we debated those views.

    It was Open Source analysis (in my view the best kind). Such analysis is in many ways superior to “expert” (there’s a prejudgement) research in overall quality and error correction. In very narrow areas, “experts” will be able to outperform the Open Source movement, but even then, that may be short lived. Witness Linux vs Microsoft Windows (a huge mismatch). Witness Hezbollah vs Israel-USA (a huge mismatch).

    HPC Posters who posted more relevant material received more kudos. THAT is the way a rating system is supposed to work.

    I guess that makes us all intellectual Libertarians, who believe in the Free Market of ideas and methods and the right to hold whatever beliefs one desires without interference (Private Property).

    The basis of a Free and Open society is enshrined in Free Speech, Freedom of Religion, Freedom of Ideas, Free Markets and Private Property.

    Let us not forget that. We are fortunate to live in a relatively enlightened nation, despite the attempts of our current leadership to Mugabe us into a hyper-inflated disaster.

    Let’s keep the torch burning. Let’s keep on debating. We may discover even more amazing truths.

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  • the northerner living in oz says:

    @P4AC’s stuff, may be Interesting and may or may not turn out to be true.

    Is there any reason why @P4AC’s cannot create his own website?

    I am sure that will happy to provide links

    To P4AC’s-NWO etc.

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  • the northerner living in oz says:

    Do not over state the significance of this website & @P4AC’s. contributions.

    I did not need a web site to tell me houses in the U.K were over valued

    And have been for several years.

    I still remember the devastating effect negative equity had on people

    Any one who lived though the 1990’s would have known some one who was affected.

    I even remember the 1970’s

    I had several conversations with my neighbour and he too agreed that that house prices cannot

    Increase forever he is a technophobe so would not know how to access the Internet.

    I am sure there is a significant number people like him who do not access the Internet

    With the same understanding of housing / economic cycles.

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  • the northerner living in oz says:

    1. lvmreader said…

    What the courageous @P4AC is doing is exactly what we all have been doing by posting here over the years. We had a different point of view, which had facts to support it. It was a minority view, but then again so were many things.
     Gravity.
     The idea that the earth was not at the centre of the Universe.
     Certain tenets of evolution.
     Dinosaurs.

    Comparing @P4AC with the likes of Newton etc


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  • [email protected]

    agree 100%

    It seems to me lately that some bloggers here are turning on others and their constant bickering is becoming a distraction.Putting forward a counter argument and debating it through is much more interesting than the ridiclous abuse and namecalling we have had in the last week.Please folks lets get back on track,We are all on the same side.
    Maybe this is i guess,is a symptom of the battle being won (hpc) and the consequent demise of the property bull.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Here Here Lvm,

    The main problem is most people on here want a nice 30pc drop in prices, a small recession, keep their jobs, then buy a property and back to normality.

    When I proposed we were heading for a depression 1 year ago (May 2007) I was ridiculed by most (not by LVM). Now it is accepted that a depression is a real possibility.

    The secret is not to be scared of what you find but be glad you have found it. You can at least plan ahead with your new knowledge.

    Most people are scared of change, big change. But the world we live in is changing exponentially. Of course sometimes that change is good (new technology) but sometimes it is bad (discovery of NWO). This is an evolutionary test. You have to embrace the facts no matter how disturbing they are. Hiding from the truth is the path to extinction.

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  • I think the problem lots of people have with these kinds of posts, and conspiracy theories in general, is that a bunch of interesting facts (or at least “google facts”) are presnted for debate, not in a neutral way, but rather from an extreme point of view. This automatically rails people against these facts and the interest is lost.

    For example, I think that there are some very interesting facts about 9/11 and some very interesting unaswered questions. But I don’t then extrapolate these facts and questions into a full blow conspiracy that involves a NWO. I just don’t know. Do I think the US goverment are witholding information? Yes. Do I think they did it? I DON’T KNOW.

    Similarly for this whole central banks are going to steal everything I own theory (which I admit I don’t know much about right now). There are some interesting facts (or “google facts”, maybe we should call them “gacts”?) and some unaswered questions, but again there is a leap of faith involed to extrapolate to the full blow conspiracy theory.

    There are also theories that I just think are plain wrong (based upon certain experiments that I did during a masters degree in physics): Cars cannot run on water. If they could then this universe would be a very different place, probably devoid of life.

    On a different note, if we were to bring in a 100% gold standard, surely the amount of gold you would get for each note would be so small (only a finite amount of gold and a shed load of people to spend money based on it) that you wouldn’t be able to buy anything usefull with it. i.e. Do you think that there is enough gold in the world to support a 100% standard given the number of people on earth (which is rising exponentially). The thing about an elastic supply of money is that it can grow with the population (although anyone can see that it’s currently out of control). If pound notes had not been printed with abandon then would there be enough money to usefully go around?

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  • Oh FFS. This site predicted a house price crash for years before it happened. You were wrong. Your prediction for 2005, 2006 and 2007 did not materialise until 2008. If I predict a bird will fly past my window at 1pm, then at 2pm, then at 3pm then one finally does at 4pm, was I more right, or more wrong? Even if my reasons for that belief were right all along (there’s a nest nearby, it must get hungry, I could hear it singing).

    ” the right to hold whatever beliefs one desires without interference ”

    But that isn’t free speech! Free speech is everyone being entitled to challenge your beliefs. I will do so especially if they result in ludicrous investment advice (put most of your cash in gold) and/or are based on such basic logical fallacies that they are risible. s2r1’s beliefs fall squarely here.

    If you do not accept that your beliefs should be subject to logical rigour then you don’t get to claim that you’re in the tradition of small minorities who challenge the accepted wisdom. The precise reason why heliocentrism and evolution have prevailed over the previously established ideas is because they stand up to such rigour better than anything else.

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  • This is exactly what I was referring to yesterday LVM. When I first started visiting this site 18 months or so ago, I was ridiculed as a loony and crackpot by friends telling me that I was an idiot for selling my house and that I would never get back on the housing ladder (as if that is the be all and end all of life.) They said that the worst that would happen would be a stalling in prices, and it didn’t matter how much one tried to point out that never happens. Now the house price crash is upon us, people are still in denial that it will be as worse as the early 90’s and that this is just a blip as dismiss out of hand that we are even entering a recession let alone a depression. These a post graduate qualified people, and people that were stung during the last house price crash. Human beings are strange creatures they only see what they want to believe even if there is evidence before them. Now a lot of the more outlandish theories being debated on this boards over the last couple of weeks have no hard evidence in their favour (unlike the fact that there would be a house price crash) but to dismiss them completely out of turn and ridicule the posters is as bad as believing everything that everyone tells you.

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  • Right – let’s review some of s2r1’s predictions…

    S2r1 did not think the Chinese earthquake had anything to do with his 12-20 May prediction (which was originally a 16th May prediction). If you remember (and we can all go to the archive) you said that the 16th May would mark a shift from power to ethics. You then started wittering on about Dwain Chambers. That’s what actually happened.

    Here’s the prediction:

    Here’s you desperately trying to make it fit:

    He is now changing his to get a confirmation bias. s2r1 is a fraud and his ‘models’ are worthless.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    S2R, if we are indeed experiencing an info war, this was a skurmish, and, not knowing the identity of my detractors, given their lack of reasoning, and given their puerile insults, they could well be common purpose or nwo moles. The national press wants a monopoly on our thoughts and will know that people are discussing alternatives. We definitely had industry VI’s poo pooing us during the boom years. Some things don’t change, but, change comes from a critical mass of understanding, and the general public outnumber the control freaks.

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  • vmreader
    the idea and prediction of a HPC was never and could never be considered a conspiracy. Do you even know what a conspiracy is? The prediction was based on sound economic predictions that there isn only so much that people can afford and so much available to lend to them.

    To attempt to label previous HPC predicions as ‘consipracies’ is nothing more than a lame attempt at revisionism by the conspiracy folk to justify their of topic postings

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