Thursday, June 19, 2008

VI’s gradually change tune

House prices 'to fall 9% in 2008'

Not a particularly interesting article, but here for the record. There was something in City AM about two chaps from HSBC saying that they expected house prices to fall by 1-% this year and 10% next year, but I can't find that online.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:28 AM (971 views)
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6 thoughts on “VI’s gradually change tune

  • Yes Mark we’ll need to remind them of this prediction.

    To achieve 9% Fall Year on Year by September prices need to fall just another 1.25%

    To achieve 9% fall This Year from January prices need to fall another 2.5%

    It begs the question – why even say it, are they expecting the market to pick up ?

    Don’t comments like this make them look more stupid and incompetent by the day.

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  • Landedgentry says:

    But we won’t have a fall on the scale of the early nineties. Remember when mainstream media were saying that not so long ago?

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  • justwatching says:

    Yep, str I agree.
    Taking their own figures & given the current trend these people must be absolute fookwits. Their line is going down. What, apart from wishful thinking will reverse this trend so soon??

    a) Mortgage approvals down 40% YOY
    b) RICS survey, about 94% of surveyors saying prices are going south.
    c) Last years rises of June, July & maybe Aug about to drop out of the figures. (I’m not going to do the maths, but without further falls, losing those rises probably brings us close to 9% anyway.)
    d) Propery failing to sell at auction (did I see 50% failure recently)
    e) No onward chain, vacant possession
    f) letters to Darling

    OR

    WISHFUL THINKING

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  • This was debated on radio 5 live this morning and the consensus of opinion is that they went for 9% only because they dont at this time want to go double digit !!

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  • From the article with ref to HBOS—– ”But the situation is much worse with self-certified mortgages, which amount to 13% of all the bank’s home loans.

    Borrowers did not have to present any real evidence of their ability to repay before they were granted these loans, and arrears among them have risen from 2.51% to 3.11%.

    The bank pointed out that the profitability of its mortgage lending should improve next year.

    One-third of its current stock of home loans will be charged at higher interest rates in the course of 2008, because of new customers being offered more expensive deals then before, and existing customers also switching to loans at higher rates once their current fixed or introductory rates have expired”.

    I wonder how the forthcoming hike will impact on self-cert arrears, many of which are already under pressure.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    STR, exactly. People like HBOS are changing their tune in light of events. According to their May Index prices are down 6.6% in five months, annualised 16% before inflation. So they’re stumbling in the right direction.

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