Monday, June 2, 2008

“This is the Big One”

Unsafe as houses

Interesting article suggesting a likely fall of ~ 50% over next 3 years. “Real UK house prices will probably approximately halve and take several years to do it. This is the Big One.”

Posted by katalan @ 12:46 PM (731 views)
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2 thoughts on ““This is the Big One”

  • Verymeanreversion says:

    This article reads like an HPC post from a couple of years ago. I thought it was a fake company and this was a wind-up release to start with but it does seem like the company is real.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    The Big One?

    Nationwide helpfully calculate house prices adjusted for RPI (adjusted for wages would be better, but that’ll do). Relative to RPI, house prices halved between 1989 Q2 (had house prices at the time increased in line with RPI, they would be £114,478 today) and 1995 Q4 (£71,703).

    2007 Q3 was £187,886, down to £179,363 by 2008 Q1, i.e. an inflation adjusted fall of 4.5% in six months ….

    Assuming we hit the same rock bottom as 1995, that’s a fall of … er …62% from last year’s peak.

    Tasty!

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