Friday, June 6, 2008

Putting their money where their mouth is

House prices set for 30% fall, derivatives show

Britain's housing downturn is unlikely to bottom out until 2011 by which time average prices will have fallen by around 30 percent from their peak last August, derivatives data showed on Friday. The market also indicated that it could take another 10 years for house prices to regain current levels. The Tradition Future HPI, which is based on the non-seasonally adjusted version of the Halifax price index, sees average British house prices bottoming out below £43,000 in 2011 from £186,482 currently. According to derivatives market data, British house prices are likely to shed another 20 percent in the next 24 months.

Posted by little professor @ 05:50 PM (1024 views)
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4 thoughts on “Putting their money where their mouth is

  • doom&gloom says:

    The derivative price is the mean of house price predictions. Throughout the boom and bust predictions have consistently underestimated rises and falls. So will stick my neck out and say they are still underestimating falls by 10%. Chuck in higher-than-forecast inflation, and I will predict drops in real terms of 60% by 2012.

    Just got to track down that derivative now and put my money where my mouth is.

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  • doom&gloom, I think you are optimistic…lol

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  • doom&gloom
    I’m not sure about the inflation thing I guess your basing that on 5% over 4 years.
    The fall though is starting to look modest with 2.5% off in the best month of the year.
    So I’m with you on that and could do with placing a bet myself – but as you say – how?
    Although being out of the market completely is a bet in itseld I guess.

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  • The_stars_are_aligning says:

    Thought it was Christmas Day and New Years Eve on the same day when your lead said house prices bottoming out to below £43,000. Unfotunately, you’d left out a digit and it’s £143,000 – shame..!

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