Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Fred Harrison Bypasses Authority and Tells It Straight…

We'll All Pay a High Price for Boom and Bust...

Harrison has had enough of consulting 'experts' and is now focusing his time on educating the public to the way the system actually works. His forecast of the present crisis was originally published in 1997 just as New Labour was taking over in Downing Street. He flagged the warning again in 2005. He told Gordon Brown and Tony Blair what was going to happen - they didn't listen. The responsibility now lies with the public to wise up.

Posted by neo-serf @ 12:07 PM (737 views)
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7 thoughts on “Fred Harrison Bypasses Authority and Tells It Straight…

  • Not only is Mr Harrison on the money but he is very humble. Thats probably been his or collectivly our ( as a country not as people wanting a HPC) problem.

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  • Yerhavingalaugh says:

    I think this man is spot on. I just wonder whether he might be revising his 30% fall to something even bigger soon! He has already gone from 20% to 30%. What’s the betting it will be higher still?

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  • holding out says:

    On the money allright – Although his forecast seems pretty conservative.
    He certainly likes to plug his book, TM – I’m not sure where you get humble from(irony?)

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  • holding out – i say this because when i see him he sounds measured and not at all frenetic, unlike some of the other commentators. I would like to see him and Krusty in a debate …. now that would be something to behold. Have you read his book and the Ricardos law book too. Ricardos is a bit heavy. The thing about his forecast was (and this is what i would like to take up with him) it just assumed the 18 year cycle would be projected. There was no mention of a potential for a credit crunch – at least to my recollection when i read it (that was a while back). No Precther predicts the credit crunch the and the demise of AMBAC in Conquer the crash. (although again Mr. P admits his timing is out).

    The point i am (badly ) trying to make is that FH’s 20% decline was based on just a 18year cycle. Now 3 things 1. I dont think he factored in a Credit Crunch – and therefore his 30% new prediction probably merely incorporates that and 2.(in my view the most important) This cycle may be part of a longer term cycle (precthers Grand Super cycle) – so essentially we are at the top of both 3. I think he underplays the BTL impact.

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  • holding out says:

    TM – I wasn’t in any way questioning his judgement – far from it to call the top from 11 years out is hugely impressive. It reminds me of the child behaviour experts who only look at the parents. That particular article contains a lot of – I said this and I told them that which didn’t strike me as humble that was all. By the by any views on GBP do you see it’s strength of late continuing ?

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  • Letsgetreadytotumble says:

    But the crash was starting to happen in 2005, with the percentage price rise curve rapidly heading towards zero. The banks altered the lending rules and the curve shot skywards again. How would he have known all those years ago that the lending rules would change? He could be 2 or 3 years in error.

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  • Letsgetreadytotumble – you need to get his book. Which shows a 18 year cycle based on 300 years of history (excepting the WWs), basically during the 18year cycle there is normally a mini-mid term recession (which is good!) BUT this time we didnt have one (in 2001), bacause they pumped more money into the ecomy to avoid the bust [no more boom and bust remember] so the fall from here will be much worse. Not sure the crash was starting to happen in 2005. We had a correction in 2005 but new highs thereafter.

    Holding out – i gave you my analysis before – nothing has changed. Euro – hit mid 7800 as i said (actually 7849) now around the 7900 level. Really needs to go up soon for my analysis – i.e. new highs – to be right. Re $ – still “boobing along at the bottom of the beautiful briny sea”. breakout of 194 lower, above 199 bearish scenario questioned. (am holding my shorts at 2.03 which i see as a long term thing, unless 199 breached.) JPY and Swissy – i feel i have enough currency exposure at the moment so i havent looked at those. I have a Swiss gf who lives in Zurich, so i am interested in the Swissy, anyway. I will try and look at those later – i dont do “half way” analysis – if im not very sure then i get sidelined (although i take the point you can never be sure!).

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