Thursday, May 29, 2008

UK sure to follow

Through the floor

America's house prices are falling even faster than during the Great Depression AS HOUSE prices in America continue their rapid descent, market-watchers are having to cast back ever further for gloomy comparisons.

Posted by mken @ 07:20 PM (976 views)
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3 thoughts on “UK sure to follow

  • Urine Trouble says:

    Any chance of a graph that plots amerkin house prices against our own. A graph like the one on the homepage would be good, just so we know what to expect.

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  • OK, here are some comparison stats, using the most recent Halifax and Case-Shiller data.

    Current average home price in USA is 72% higher than in Jan 2000; in the UK houses are 130% higher.

    If UK prices fell to the point where they were 72% above Jan 2000 levels, they would be 29% below their highs of last year.

    US marked peaked at 103% over Jan 2000; in the UK the marked peaked at 142% higher.

    US market is still falling rapidly, but currently shows no signs of further acceleration (indicating a likely rebound) or of bottoming out.

    It is therefore reasonable to conclude that US home prices are likely to fall significantly further without subsequently recovering to their present level.

    By way of analogy, I would describe the US market as having climbed half way up a mountain and is now coming down on a toboggan, while the UK market reached the summit and has just fallen off a cliff..

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  • scandinavian pessimist says:

    Uncle Tom,

    “I would describe the US market as having climbed half way up a mountain and is now coming down on a toboggan, while the UK market reached the summit and has just fallen off a cliff..”

    Nice one! That post will go straight in my book of classic HPC quotes.

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