Wednesday, May 14, 2008

UK is suffering from ‘housing bubble’

UK could suffer 'housing bubble'

Article from 2004 - locked up in this site's New Blog vault. Was nice to re-read the news. Amazing... Durlacher got it wrong by 5 years (as always with Economists who get the theory right but the timing wrong). Substitute 2004 for 2008 and you'll see what's unfolding in Britain today... "The possible slide in prices, Durlacher said, could be triggered by a combination of higher interest rates, increased lender caution and tighter regulation of the mortgage market. Overall, Durlacher predicts that house prices will fall by 30%, starting in the second half of 2004. Ominously, the report suggests the housing market bust could be "very messy. We expect transactions to drop sharply, mortgage lending to decrease by 55% and widespread mis-selling allegations."

Posted by trough2010 @ 12:17 AM (681 views)
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4 thoughts on “UK is suffering from ‘housing bubble’

  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Damn, I got it wrong by 4 years too! 2004 looked extremely shaky and prices started to slip in the summer of that year. The infamous 1/4 point rate cut of 2005 nobbled us all for another 3 years!

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  • Fred Harrison needs a medal for his patience, insight and briliantly timed non sensational view.

    At the height of the party everyone I told about this view thought I was a nutjob. Harrison was dubbed ‘the Prophet of Doom’ etc. – The man stuck to his guns.

    Hat’s of Mr Harrison – now give us the solution…

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  • when i look back at 2001 prices and remember how then they seemed steep it puts the current crisis into perspective. We were talking 30% back then……

    Up to 70% off now?

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  • Neo-serf – err… no. He was wrong. Just that. Wrong.

    Anyone can ‘predict’ that something will happen at some point in the future. In the longrun, we’re all dead.

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