Thursday, May 22, 2008

Oil buying leveraged at 16:1

The Real Reason Behind Record High Oil Prices- Part 2

US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:25 AM (3271 views)
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44 thoughts on “Oil buying leveraged at 16:1

  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    QUOTE
    “The hoax of Peak Oil—namely the argument that the oil production has hit the point where more than half all reserves have been used and the world is on the downslope of oil at cheap price and abundant quantity—has enabled this costly fraud to continue since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 with the help of key banks, oil traders and big oil majors. Washington is trying to shift blame, as always, to Arab OPEC producers. The problem is not a lack of crude oil supply. In fact the world is in over-supply now. Yet the price climbs relentlessly higher. Why? The answer lies in what are clearly deliberate US government policies that permit the unbridled oil price manipulations. “

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  • ….. the fact there is leverage doesnt explain the rises. If that were right then all commodities and anything bought on margin (including HPs) would go up forever. It does go someway to explaining volatility. I have seen a price chart and it could well be a third wave. In fact a move above 126 on nymex gave credibility to the bullish case. The rest of the article is of more interest though.

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  • some background

    Ian R. Crane, a veteran of a twenty-year career in international oilfield services, which provided him with the opportunity to live & work in the UK, Mainland Europe, Middle East and the USA, believes that counter theories to Peak Oil should be given equal consideration and people should be given the opportunity to see the truth behind ‘Peak Oil’. Is it real decline in availability of resources or ‘perceived shortage’, which has resulted in the price of oil escalating from $9.81 per barrel in 1999, to in excess of $90 per barrel today? What cannot be denied is that over the past five years, the major oil companies have achieved the greatest levels of profitability in corporate history. Over the same period, oilfield related stocks have increased in value by as much as a 500%, reaping enormous rewards for oilfield executives and industry investors.

    Ian does not suggest that we should continue to burn in excess of 90million barrels of hydro-carbons each day but he is concerned that the proponents of ‘Peak Oil’ are inadvertently playing into the hands of Big Oil. With the price of petrol now firmly set above the £1 per litre mark in the UK, it’s time to hear the other side of the story.
    http://www.ianrcrane.co.uk/index.php?act=viewProd&productId=11

    Glastonbury Radio recorded a debate between Rob Hopkins from Transition Towns (who believes oil is running out) and Ian Crane (who spent 20 years in the oil business) who believes we are being conned and there is masses of oil under 3 or 4 states of the USA. We were joined by Peter Taylor who had a lotto say about Global warming.

    http://www.revver.com/video/752533/peak-oil-myth-or-reality-rec-from-glastonbury-radio-part-two/

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  • whatever the leverage, if the price falls they have to pay the difference. It a simple case supply and demand. This is the same argument used for property for the last decade. $300 by 2010.

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  • japanese uncle says:

    Strict banning of ‘gamble by borrowing’ in whatever market, is the only and the most effective solution, to all these unnecessary risk to our society. Violation of this golden rule must involve life imprisonment or Guantanamo Bay.

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  • Rental John says:

    Are we in the Enthusiasm to Greed transition? Or nearing the Delusion to Denial peak?

    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/M

    The trading in oil futures leverage at such a high ratio does not look good…..and as the price goes up and demand falls, one to watch closely.

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  • When sharks like Goldman Sachs start talking the price up you know something fishy is going on, a more realistic price for oil is around the $70 area.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    This is the diagram of techieman’s Elliott wave 3.
    The Elliott wave 4 correction is shown here as lasting until 2011

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  • Dave The Dog says:

    Forget peak oil or “hidden” reserves in the ground and speculators (all of which may be true or false) – current demand is outstripping supply so the price goes up . . . and supply can be controlled by OPEC to a certain extent . . . why shouldn’t they screw us cos we’d screw them if we could (and probably have done in the past)! What goes around comes around.

    There’s no realistic price only the real price . . . and it’s $135 a barrel at the moment.

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  • OK, ‘Peak Oil’ is a very old theory, albeit from an eminent source. It’s a bit of a distraction today.

    The fundamentals today are:

    1) The world has huge amounts of accessible hydrocarbon deposits that can be processed to create Petrol/Diesel/Avgas etc. Running out of overall supply is not an issue.

    2) The commercial viability of these deposits depends on the current market price for the extracted products.

    3) Until relatively recently, there was an adequate supply of oil that could be extracted for only a few dollars per barrel. Natural gas was also very cheap and plentiful.

    4) The supply of easy oil is now falling short of demand, and more costly sources are having to be exploited.

    5) The investment needed to extract and process the more difficult deposits is extremely high, and it takes several years before an investment decision yields product to sell.

    6) Aside from the US strategic reserve, there is very little stockpiling of oil and oil products. Market rigging through hoarding is not a factor, but there is some manipulation by OPEC through production control.

    7) The great bulk of oil trading does not involve the much publicised traders and speculators. It is done by private treaty, often in local currencies, often (but not always) using the market prices for Brent or WTI as a reference point.

    8) The antics of speculators risking their shirts with bets on tomorrow’s oil price has little influence on the price itself.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    This chart also shows the extreme overbought levels.
    The gold/oil ratio is at 6.9 today.
    When oil corrects, the pendulum will swing from oil to gold

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    UT,

    “8) The antics of speculators risking their shirts with bets on tomorrow’s oil price has little influence on the price itself.”

    I am not convinced about no. 8

    From today’s Telegraph
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/22/ccoil122.xml

    “Lehman’s latest report – Is it a Bubble? – says commodity index funds have exploded from $70bn (£36bn) to $235bn since early 2006. This includes $90bn of fresh money. Energy takes the lion’s share. Every $100m flow of investment money into oil lifts crude prices by 1.6pc, it said.”

    When this bubble pops how many hedge funds will go under?

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  • One thing that is becoming evident having listened to various national and local radio stations in the last few days is the significant number of small business callers who are folding month by both primarily because of rising fuel/energy costs.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    techieman,

    Your back.
    What do you think of gold? Elliott wave 5 from August 2007 has started?

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  • sold 2 rent 1

    I’m with you on the oil vs gold price link here and the fact that when oil corrects, as it will invariably do, the money will rush back into gold. Gold has been recovering from its own spike that finished in March but that doesn’t mean it won’t be edging up higher again when the money that went into speculating on oil … goes back into gold.

    I don’t agree either that there is oversupply or that the US government deliberately allows price manipulations. The latter happens more through incompetence than anything – even if they do then try to blame OPEC. But the vast amounts of cash that pulled out of subprime as it triggered the domino rally has to find a home, and it’s found it in oil.

    For now…

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  • no doubt global oil and gold will be on the agenda here:-

    Bilderberg meet at the luxurious Westfields Marriott resort from Thursday, June 5, to Sunday, June 8, at Chantilly, Va., near Washington’s Dulles International Airport.

    The address: Westfields Marriott, 14750 Conference Center Drive, Chantilly, Va. 20151. Phone: 703-818-0300

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    malct,

    Looks like the story claiming Bilderberg had already met in Athens Greece was a possible ruse to misdirect attention from the real scene of the crime.

    Ohhh it’s getting very exciting indeed.
    A Bilderberg meeting right in the middle of Calleman/Lungold’s “fifth night” destruction period
    I wonder how many protestors will attend; and will the videos make it to no. 1 on youtube?

    The “destruction” needs to ramp up significantly now into a blow-off phase if we are to have a CHANGE of CONSCIOUSNESS in July.
    Hope you guys have GOLD?

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  • This thread is a minefield of disinformation. ‘Peak Oil’ is real enough – but it has nothing to do with oil ‘running out’ – as one of its chief proponents, Dr Colin Campbell (of ASPO) has readily admitted.It’s about the world passing its peak of production, which – in the case of rising demand – accelerates the depletion of available, easily recoverable – and therefore cheaper – oil. As the supply diminishes, oil companies are forced to look for oil in more and more inhospitable locations, and with increased exploration and extraction costs inevitably having to be passed on down the chain. Think about having a swimming pool in your backyard – you can just walk out there anytime and take a quick dip. It’s convenient and its cheap. Now think about a situation where the same amount of water is still available, but instead of being in your readily accessible pool, it’s held in cups of water by individuals who happen to live all over the globe. First you have to find them, then you have to travel to them to retrieve the water – and then you have to consolidate your supplies. It’s going to be an expensive process, and probably not really worth the effort. So, just as oil companies can certainly maximise their profits at present, by taking advantage of prices rising against demand – they’re not going to waste time or money trying to find, or extract oil, the cumulative cost of which they will never realistically be able to pass on to the consumer. Which is why none of them are building refinieries. Sadly, there are no viable alternatives – oil shales are vastly more expensive to process, and yield an inferior product, whereas the whole misguided present scheme of trying to ‘grow’ oil, via biofuels, ignores such factors as topsoil depletion, and the fact that fertilisers and insecticides are themselves petroleum derivatives.

    To suggest that this is all a con to drive oil prices up and gouge the consumer, ignores the simple fact that the Saudi’s reluctance to withhold sale of a resource, at the time when its value has gone stratospheric, flies in the face of accepted economic theory – particularly when they’re acutely aware that this increase in price may precipitate demand destruction, or the more rapid migration to alternative energies (however misguided those choices may prove to be in the long term).

    Here’s a recent interview with Dr. Robert Hirsch, author of the US govt’s ‘Hirsch Report’, pretty much laying the issue on the line.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4019#more

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  • MALCT – You are an odious little misogynist. See yesterday’s thread.

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  • By the way, the author of the original Market Oracle piece (Engdahl) happens to be a member of a select group who believe that oil isn’t a fossil fuel at all, but was formed – and is still being created – by some, as yet unexplained process deep within the planet (abiogenic).

    This would appear to be the reason why he has no time for ‘Peak Oil’ theorists.

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  • The simple fact is that there is no future in oil; the sooner we get our heads around that, and start looking for alternative forms of energy the better.

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  • S2R,

    That rosy piece in the Telegraph didn’t mention Russia once; there are some big question marks regarding Russian output at the moment, which after a period of break-neck exploitation now appears to be faltering. That uncertainty is probably a key factor in the current market spike.

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  • All those arguing that you can increase production only by exploiting marginal/expensive oilfields should address Engdahl’s point that substantial new production is already coming on stream in Saudi Arabia and Brazil and that there are huge, relatively untouched but exploitable fields in Iraq, Alaska and the Bakken area.

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  • In addition, the proponents of ‘Peak Oil’ conveniently ignore rapidly advancing well construction, reservoir management and stimulation techniques, which enable more than twice as much oil to be extracted than when oil was first discovered in the late 19th Century.

    http://www.ianrcrane.co.uk/index.php?act=viewProd&productId=11

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  • planning4acrash says:

    There is no proper accountability 4 reporting oil output, its stats are open to wide questioning and manipulation. The prices however, 80% down to booming money supply. All amplified by reporting, peak oil, even if real, is a side 2financiers printing £$s

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  • Peak Oil is the fundamental which drives up the prices – just as immigration, divorces, and cheap credit drove up house prices. But Peak Oil doesn’t necessarily justify an oil price of $130 or $200 or $400 – just as immigrants and divorces can’t justify houses costing 10x incomes. When the market is filled with speculative money, late-arriving speculators tend to get burned.

    @malct and s2r1: Peak Oil is a valid, verifiable theory which has stood the test of time. It was first proposed in 1956 and since then has been demonstrated in individual oil fields and whole countries (including the UK). It’s only a matter of time before the world as a whole peaks. There are more and more new wells built every year, but they are smaller and less productive than the giants of the past. We’re having to run faster every year just to keep up. No major discoveries have been made for some forty years now – even Brazil’s new “Tupi” oilfield is a relative minnow compared to past giants such as Cantarell (Mexico) or Ghawar (Saudi Arabia). Visit http://www.theOilDrum.com for enlightenment.

    @uncle tom: On the Russian question – Russia’s oil industry collapsed after the demise of the USSR, so their oil lay untouched for a decade. In the last decade years they’ve rebuilt the industry and have been pumping oil at full speed. Now that the wells have peaked, Russia’s output is falling again.

    @lierbag – You’re pretty much spot on, thanks.

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  • “The oil price today, unlike twenty years ago, is determined behind closed doors in the trading rooms of giant financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank or UBS. ”

    Oh, that really fills me with confidence!!!! Especially because at least three of the above names lost billions in sub-prime.

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  • planning4 – but oil prices have risen faster than money supply.

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  • ‘In addition, the proponents of ‘Peak Oil’ conveniently ignore rapidly advancing well construction, reservoir management and stimulation’

    No they don’t. The ‘proponents’ include individuals such as Dr. Colin Campbell (of ASPO) and Emeritus Prof. Kenneth S. Deffeyes, of Princeton Uni – both of whom have enough practical experience of oil production and technology, in the service of major oil companies to know exactly what they’re talking about.

    Read the review of Deffeye’s book, ‘Hubbert’s Peak’ in the American Journal of Physics:

    http://www.trincoll.edu/~silverma/reviews_commentary/hubberts_peak.html

    or look at Colin Campbells ASPO organisation site.

    You go on to say: ‘. . . techniques, which enable more than twice as much oil to be extracted than when oil was first discovered in the late 19th Century’.

    As the American Journal of Physics review, referred to above, states:

    ‘Thus, a resource like coal or petroleum, which might have lasted for over a thousand years if annual consumption remained constant, is found to last considerably less than a century when the annual production increases at even a relatively low fixed rate. But more disturbing is the realization, ineluctably following the logarithmic dependence of duration on supply, that the discovery of an oil field or coal vein many times larger than all currently known merely extends the availability of the resource by only a short span of time when measured against a human lifetime (or the time a society would need for the commercial implementation of new energy technology). So even if Saudi Arabia became the 51st state one day, without a radical reform in the consumption of fossil energy Hubbert’s peak would still stand out like Everest, only shifted a bit along the timeline’.

    By the way, planning4acrash is absolutely right; there is no proper accountability for reporting oil output (or held reserves) as Matthew Simmons makes abundantly clear in his book ‘Twilight In The Desert’ – which makes all future economic planning and forecasting for our oil-based society an absolute waste of time. Yes , there is undoubtedly a lot of market manipulation and distortion going on, but Peak Oil is an undeniably serious component of the overall problem.

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  • shipbuilder says:

    I noted that lierbag and drewster are able to back up their conclusions with reasoning and evidence. I too have read the evidence and followed the reasoning, hence I believe them rather than the ‘magically appearing oil’ theories.
    As for whether speculation is pushing up the price of oil – I don’t know enough about it, but am keen to learn.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    This is the information war.
    What do we really know? What is the truth? Which are the lies?

    Four topics we could argue about all day are:
    peak oil
    climate change
    9/11
    NWO

    Peak oil is a reality that will happen from our current level of knowledge (or consciousness).
    But what if our level of knowledge, perception of reality (consciousness) changes?

    What if the abiogenic theory is true?
    What if we find out that new energy technologies have been surpressed by the big energy companies?

    With petrol prices going through the roof there must be many amateur mechanics experimenting with “running your car on water” – an patented idea from STAN MEYER

    This is what Calleman’s fifth night destruction is all about – finding out that the world we live in is NOT what we thought.
    The discovery of the new perception of reality, whatever that may be, is the change in consciousness.

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  • @uncle tom:

    “7) The great bulk of oil trading does not involve the much publicised traders and speculators. It is done by private treaty, often in local currencies, *often (but not always) using the market prices for Brent or WTI as a reference point.*”

    The ‘market prices’ referenced above *are* the prices on the NYMEX/ICE Futures exchanges. If the speculators push up the futures price the private treaty prices follow suit. It doesn’t take many futures trades to modify the price. The futures speculator doesn’t even get lumped with a barrel of oil when the futures option expires! He can still trade it in for cash:

    “ICE Brent Futures is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery with an option to cash settle against the published settlement price i.e. the ICE Futures Brent Index price for the day following the last trading day of the futures contract.” – https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/IPE_Brent_Crude_futures_contract_specification.pdf.

    This is why the oil companies are making such massive profits. If all oil had to be traded on the open market the price would be a lot lower.

    These speculators are ruining our economy. The government needs to take firm action:

    – Futures can’t be cashed in. At the end of the period the owner must collect the oil or pay a penalty (the ‘hot potato’ fix).
    – There needs to be a limit on the gearing
    – There needs to be a limit on the volume of trading and size of positions

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  • shipbuilder says:

    S2R1 – that’s a lot of what ifs – of course the question could be asked at any point in history. Really the only reason you believe that the ‘truth’ will be revealed soon is because your models tell you so. The reality is that this point in history looks similar to many others – the 70’s, for example – no doubt people had similar fears then.
    You claim that for us to find out that the world ‘is not as we think’ would require hundreds of years of history and science to be wrong – that is a staggeringly arrogant and insulting (to qualified historians and scientists) thing to say.
    Perhaps you can enlighten me, but there doesn’t seem to be anything specific in this ‘fifth night’ scenario, other than the masses will change their view of the world.
    You are interpreting it as tying in with various conspiracy theories, yet as I have pointed out in the past, couldn’t (and isn’t it more likely) that the change could simply be a mass move away from materialism, for example? What specifically points towards your extreme interpretation? And why is your interpretation so western-centric, when the majority of the world’s population do not live here? In China of Africa, who in the ‘masses’ cares if 9/11 was a fraud?
    You claim to be open-minded, yet your interpretation of events is as closed as it is possible to be.

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  • S2R1 – the count i was talking about was an intraday count, extending.

    In terms of Gold previously i stated that 870 on the downside would be challenged before 1033 on the upside. That occured, infact i was looking at the 4th wave of one less degree as supportwhich gives 800ish. Basically now a break below 890 and am bearish back down to at least test the low (and probably to reach that 800 target), alternatively should that 890 hold a break above 953, a quick bulltrap and then a march higher are my two scenarios.

    I realise there is some “air” between these two but thats my view at the moment. In terms of trading i am just maintaining whats left of my core holding, i have no inclination to trade around that at the moment. Sorry for not coming back earlier and for not being more sophisticated with entry / exit points. I know your position so i am interested if you are right and we do challenge the highs.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    shipbuilder,

    “The reality is that this point in history looks similar to many others – the 70’s”

    I totally disagree.
    Western debt levels suggest a crash that will make the Great Depression look like a sunday school picnic.
    Throw in a food/natural resource crunch and we have a very unique situation in history.

    “You claim that for us to find out that the world ‘is not as we think’ would require hundreds of years of history and science to be wrong”

    Science/history as like consciousness may not be about right and wrong, but merely about a perceived level of understanding at a specific moment in time.
    Quantum physics is throwing up all sorts of ideas that if proven will turn current scientific thinking on its head.
    As for history, the Zeitgeist film makes a good effort to undermine the historical knowledge of religion.

    “What specifically points towards your extreme interpretation?”

    My belief that evolution/change is exponential and the curve that has been fairly horizontal for 16bn years is going vertical.

    “And why is your interpretation so western-centric, when the majority of the world’s population do not live here? In China of Africa, who in the ‘masses’ cares if 9/11 was a fraud?”

    I think this “fifth night” destruction in 2008 is also about power transfering from the West to the East.
    Whist the masses in Africa don’t care about 9/11 they might express an interest if certain vaccination programmes launched the HIV virus in their countries.

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  • shipbuilder @ 32 – I feel for you because I share your concerns – but you seem to be stuck in an historic left wing box

    set yourself free – the ‘people who have subdued Africa, China, India etc have done it from your country

    We and our predecesors have allowed this to happen – outside US and Poodle Country the rest of the world know 911 is a fraud, they are very angry and fully understand what is going on.

    Have you clocked Silent Weapons for a Quiet War and The Protocols of the Elders of Zion?

    Sometimes we need to be shaken when we’ve fallen asleep in an awkward position.

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  • shipbuilder says:

    S2R1, if you haven’t read, you may have heard of Holy Blood, Holy Grail – the book that Dan Brown ‘borrowed’ his ideas for the Da Vinci code from. Th authors did a lot of research and a lot of work, but still ended up tying together different events and history that had no provable connection, to suit their own interpretation of events, claiming that because they saw these connections, it must be so.
    I feel that you are doing the same thing – you have models, you have conspiracy theories and you have the exponential function, yet nothing solid to connect them together.
    As a result, you will convince no-one – if you have no evidence, people will see through it. You obviously have a lot of energy and will to seek change – it would be a pity if it was focused in the wrong direction.

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  • shipbuilder says:

    Malct, the fact that we have been colonial oppressors is the very real, provable history that I have been banging on about, as opposed to the conspiracy theory. As for the rest of the world knowing that 9/11 is a fraud – with respect, you can’t possibly know that. Again, I think that on the contrary, you are seeing things from a western bubble – the majority of the people in the world have real issues like poverty to deal with

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  • 36. shipbuilder said…S2R1, if you haven’t read, you may have heard of Holy Blood, Holy Grail . . .

    left brain right brain thing going on here

    HPC should be one way

    malct said – I feel for you because I share your concerns

    shipbuilder said – I feel that you are doing the same thing –

    any females monitoring who can help us sad males out here ?

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Re: Shipbuilder, google “loose change” as an intro to 9/11 proof.

    S2R, Where do you get the HIV info from?! I’ve heard the rumours, but never seen any evidence.

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  • p4ac – I looked at the whole 9/11 evidence a couple of years ago – while there are unexplained issues with the official version of events, there are unexplained things about every event – that’s just life. The ‘alternative’ theories convinced me even less – apart from the motives behind them being suspect, every single one starts off by making an assumption, then trying to make the evidence fit. This is not the way the truth is deducted. And of course, even if there did turn out to be any grain of truth in the various theories, that in itself is no evidence of any bigger ‘plan’ for the world.
    As I said before – unqualified people, of questionable motives, are posting theories in the internet about certain events – further still, they are trying to connect these things together into a ‘plot’. Not only is there little evidence to connect the events to the theories, there is even less to connect them together.
    You must surely ask yourself – is your desire to believe blinding you to the reality here? There is plenty of mainstream evidence of government corruption, imperial ambition and so on – better to focus on this first, I feel. Did you read Hegemony or Survival?

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    P4AC,

    RE: HIV in vaccines. Alex Jones has interviewed a few people about it, even scientists who were involved at the time.

    Search on “alex jones aids” on Google video etc.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    shipbuilder,

    “I looked at the whole 9/11 evidence a couple of years ago”

    Calleman/Lugold’s evolutionary model basically says that world consciousness is on a predetermined path.
    My interpretation of this is that it may have been impossible for you to see the 9/11 truth a fews years ago as the mathematics governing the universe would not allow your consciousness to change at that time.

    If you try with the Google videos again you might see the truth in 9/11 now.

    My guess is that you are fighting the change of consciousness really hard now.
    It might be time to “let go” of your previous beliefs.

    Early July will be a major turning point for many people.
    Keep trying… you know you want to… otherwise why do you bother debating these issues most nights.

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  • Yes…. Shipbuilder… Abandon reason, abandon ‘proof’, what can we really know, science is invalid when you’ve changed your consciousness… join us… join us… see the lights… be free… be happy… be an idiot…

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