Wednesday, May 21, 2008

A conservative estimate, but no-one really knows

CML predicts 7% house price fall

''...The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has predicted a 7% drop in UK house prices during 2008. The CML expects there to be 35% fewer property transactions in England and Wales this year than in 2007. ...''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:54 AM (1152 views)
Please complete the required fields.



14 thoughts on “A conservative estimate, but no-one really knows

  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    “Cunningham, senior economist at the CML, said that borrowers coming off fixed-rate deals were “managing the adjustment well”.”

    Really? That would be by spending less money on cars, tv’s,walkmans,xboxes,holidays, clothes, going out etc.

    Real money management that the high street and service sectors will really enjoy …

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I’m not surprised. Anyone watching the stats must have know since last year that the rate of decline will mean the yearly average must fall even if the monthly rate doesn’t get worse. Since the monthly rates are still falling, it will be 100% a double-digit collapse by year end. To remind everyone, we’re only talking 15% for the 1990s crash. Conservative estimates now put 2008-2009 at 15%. My bet is well into the late 20’s as a best case. Expecting 30-40%

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tyrellcorporation says:

    I’ve just launched an austerity campaign in my house (wife is fully on-board and the kids are too young to know what’s going on). My aim (in the face of rising costs for just about everything) is to buy only from Ebay, car boot sales, LIDLs and to only go for some beers once a week. Growing food, eating less, driving less and cancelling gym membership (in favour of skipping in my kitchen and doing press-ups and cycling).Save…Save…SAVE is the mantra – TBH, it’s very addictive. I also have the pleasure of knowing that New Labour’s casino culture is being throttled at source. IMO it’s the only way to combat inflation.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • A month or so ago, the CML was predicting no price falls at all. They were quite insistent.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I suspect this is all part of a “conditioning” process to ease the public into the idea that UK house prices are to marginally fall back in value, the next stage will be a roll out of “it’s worse than we originally predicted” – any hint of an immediate 20%+ fall will potentially be seen as too much for the public to stomach – ease the bad news out a bit at a time.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Tyrell – thrift is good! Have you seen any sites like this before:

    http://www.thisisguernsey.com/ecycle

    Don’t know if you have one for your local area, but I reckon it is a good green/recycling/thrift idea for a business. Sell advertising space. get some coverage in local media. Bingo – beat the recession!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Today the credit crunch slowed the Northen line and so I was late to work. Nothing to do with leaving my cheap “rent trap” later than usual.

    If I was still at school, it would be “sorry Sir, the credit crunch ate my home work”

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Inbreda, I think the only one we have in this area is a branch of http://www.freecycle.org/

    It seems very good although I have yet to do much trading.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I don’t think 7% fall by such and such a date gives people the real news. £40 off per day from the average house value hits home much better

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Didn’t Climate Change start the Credit Crunch? (or was it the other way round?)

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • ** The lenders’ group forecasts that interest rates should also end the year at 4.75%, down from their current level of 5%. **
    Yer right :o)

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    This is madness.

    Let’s assume they are correct – who in his or her right mind would spend £180,000 on an average home, in the knowledge that they will lose £12,000 capital value, pay £1,800 SDLT and pay £11,000 mortgage interest (total bill approx. £25,000) when they can rent a similar house for approx £8000 a year (assuming 4% rental yield)?

    So this will hopefully spark off a glorious self-fulfilling prophecy and house prices will be down by at least a third in a couple of years, bringing them back to their long-run price-to-earnings-ratio.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @jack c: spot on. Slow info spill as it becomes increasingly implausible to bang on about how the ship isn’t sinking when your the last one on it. I expect all but StuAstz to start to accept it. As you say, it’s an easier propaganda story if you can tell the story in increments rather than be forced to come out with a total u-turn of opinion.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @13. growler – just to expand on my comment/thoughts – one of the biggest obstacles mortgage brokers are facing at the moment is surveyors “downvaluing” properties typically by as much as 20% (new build in Leeds is in excess of this) – the slide in prices is real and it is now (IMO) all a question of how the government/media manage the release of the information to the public at large. No big shocks for regulars on this site but that might not be the case for the average Sun reader.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>