April 2008 Archive

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Explores a little known US act which appears to have encouraged subprime lending in the first place. The seeds sown in 1977?!

Mises Institute: The CRA Scam and its Defenders

"The myth that the CRA (The federal government's 1977 Community Reinvestment Act) would not be harmful to bank-industry profits was hidden for years by the Fed-created housing bubble, which allowed for easy refinancing of all the bad debt. But now that the bubble has burst, all those unqualified borrowers whom the government calls "subprime" are defaulting. The bursting of the Fed-generated housing bubble is the reason why the CRA scam was not exposed until now." - So far as I understand, this Act empowered banks to invest in subprime. The article seems to suggest that packaging of debt was a solution to the risk taken on by banks in response to the CRA Act. But, that continual housing booms cycles of house price booms, fed led, let the problem be hidden till now.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:32 PM 3 Comments

Some hard facts for the doubters

treesdontgrowtothesky.com: Trees Don't Grow to the Sky.... Watching as the sun sets on the Irish property market

For anyone doubting the freefall in the Irish property markets. One should also note that in terms of population, wages, housing demand etc. etc. Northern Ireland is similar to many parts of the rest of the UK, and that the Republic of Ireland is one one of the richest economies in the EU.

Posted by shipbuilder @ 10:59 PM 1 Comments

Renowned economist predicts UK to worst hit economically

Times: House prices fall as bank predicts credit crunch will hit UK hardest

Jim ONeill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, who correctly forecast the collapse of the US property market, proclaims that Britain will be the worst-hit of the worlds economies in the fallout of the global credit crisis.

Posted by enuii @ 10:43 PM 2 Comments

Personal Debt

Credit Action: Credit Action Stats May 2008

Last year the debt was increasing by 1 million every 4 minutes now only increasing by 1 million every 5 minutes. Total UK personal debt at the end of March 2008 stood at 1,430bn. The growth rate increased to 8.7% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of ~ 113bn. Total secured lending on homes at the end of March 2008 stood at 1,200bn. This has increased 9.1% in the last 12 months. Total consumer credit lending to individuals in March 2008 was 230bn. This has increased 6.7% in the last 12 months. Total lending in March 2008 grew by 8.2bn. Secured lending grew by 6.9bn in the month. Consumer credit lending grew by 1.2bn.

Posted by ferret @ 09:31 PM 0 Comments

Barratt considering a rights issue?

hemscott: Housebuilders in the spotlight

Persimmon reported last week that it had suffered from "unprecedented tightening in the mortgage market" in March, which "caused a further deterioration of the housing market leading to lower sales volumes and increased cancellation rates." Bovis Homes is the next housebuilder scheduled to report, with an AGM scheduled for May 9. Redrow follows with an interim trading statement on May 13, while Barratt Developments provides an update the day after.

Posted by sold out @ 09:25 PM 1 Comments

Are we the UK or North Korea?

ThisIsMoney: Bank bail-outs to be kept secret

Humphrey Bairstow Orford Saunders, Byron Arthur Repton-Carruthers, Rendleham Barnes-Spicer are 3 naughty 9 year old boys who have all had too much CDO juice to drink. Mervyn, the teacher knows this and tells them to go to the loo before they get in the car for the trip. Filled with immature bravado, all deny they have to go to the loo. And then, as if to prove the point, they begin to drink an extra 10ccs of CDO juice - first Byron Arthur does so, then the incredibly competitive but immature Rendleham Barnes Spicer followed by Humprhey. Predictably, the little jig starts as Rendleham is the first to get caught short. Mervyn makes available a change of trousers for Rendleham, who red-faced has to face his parents with his normal trousers in a plastic bag.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:06 PM 6 Comments

One for bank haters

Telegraph: Bankers would not be punters if they were forced to pay all losses

Some rollicking entertainment from Jeff Randall, articulating what I imagine most of us feel about the cavalier risk-taking bonus-pocketing actions of unaccountable bankers.

Posted by letthemfall @ 08:58 PM 0 Comments

Only one tool, and he's gonna use it!

BBC News: Further cut in US interest rates

''...The Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate from 2.25% to 2.0% as it aims to avoid a possible US recession. It is the latest in a series of rate cuts, which began in September when the federal funds rate was cut from 5.25% to 4.75%. ...'''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:25 PM 7 Comments

Bricks and Slaughter

FT: US house prices

Pity the person who bought a house in Santa Barbara county, California, one year ago. Since then the value of their home has dropped almost $6,000 per week, that is. The median house price there has dropped 34 per cent since March 2007, according to the California Association of Realtors. Will UK shadow the same trend?

Posted by rental john @ 07:16 PM 0 Comments

The Wal-Mart nation

FT: US retailers go after tax rebate billions

US retailers are waging a promotional battle to win a share of the billions of dollars in tax rebates destined for US households as part of the $170bn (86bn) federal economic stimulus package.

Posted by rental john @ 07:08 PM 0 Comments

The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf follows a noticeable hardening in US rhetoric against Iran for meddling in Iraq and playing a destabilizing role in the region

the truthseeker: Deployment of second carrier to Gulf a 'reminder': Gates

you may consider this off topic if you don't believe closing the Strait of Hormuz will affect your personal finances US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said Tuesday the deployment of a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf should be seen as a "reminder" of US military power in the region. But Gates flatly denied that the United States was preparing the ground for military strikes against Iran. "I don't think we'll have two carriers for a protracted period of time. So I don't see it as an escalation. I think it could be seen, though, as a reminder," Gates told reporters here during a visit with Mexican officials

Posted by malct @ 06:27 PM 28 Comments

Would you buy a used car from these guys?

The Independent: Is buy-to-let really dead?

"The market is the best it's been for four years," says Rob Moore who, with his business partner Mark Homer, runs a property investment service, www. progressiveproperty.co.uk and is co-author of The 44 Most Closely Guarded Property Secrets, which aims to demystify property investment. How can they keep a smug face while peddling this crap!

Posted by rental john @ 06:00 PM 0 Comments

Analysis - Nationwide's latest house price figures

MoneyWeek: House prices record first annual fall since 1996

"no amount of rhetoric or grandiose 'special liquidity schemes' will persuade banks to start lending against the value of falling assets without demanding big deposits or charging higher interest rates, or both. The soft landing that so many bulls have been praying for isnt going to happen."

Posted by damien @ 05:51 PM 2 Comments

Was listening to this show in my car earlier today - some good phone-ins.

BBC radio 5 Live: Victoria Derbyshire - Broadcast on 5 live Wed 30 Apr - from 09:00

'Are falling house prices good news?' Winners and Losers.....mostly losers! Reasonable cross section news article and phone-ins on 5 Live this morning....well worth a listen.

Posted by rental john @ 05:50 PM 0 Comments

Expect to see plenty more of these in the near future...

Lancashire Evening telegraph: 3million Blackburn Housing Estate fails to sell

A NEW housing estate in Blackburn worth almost 3million has been fenced off with barbed wire after none of the homes sold in two years... BUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND! ... EVERYWHERE IS FULL OF PEOPLE WHO WANT AFFORDABLE HOUSING!! Need I say more? Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Posted by still_renting_and_laughing @ 05:22 PM 0 Comments

Is Anyone Left?

ftadvisor: Mortgages plc and Wave suspend lending

Merrill Lynch has confirmed that both of its UK lending arms, Wave and Mortgages plc, have temporarily suspended new lending. The news follows the announcement that both Pink Home Loans and The Mortgage Times Group are consulting staff over potential redundancies.

Posted by renting2 @ 05:02 PM 15 Comments

Foreign central banks and investors presently hold $6 trillion in dollars and dollar-backed assets,

signs of the times: Signs Economic Commentary for 28 April 2008

There's no oil shortage; that's another ruse. Speculators are simply driving up the price of oil to hedge their bets on the falling dollar. What else can they do; put them in the frozen bond market, or the sinking stock market, or the collapsing housing market? Profit conditions are under pressure around the world. Resource shortages, basic material price spikes and nationalism are placing great pressure on all net input importers. Rising domestic prices, materials costs and xenophobia rarely advantage far flung MNE operation. see also http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney04262008.html

Posted by malct @ 04:50 PM 2 Comments

"Hot" money has totally distorted the "marketplace" for life-sustaining goods,

Information Clearing House: The Lords of Capital Decree Mass Death by Starvation

The so-called "market" - which is actually a club of super-rich men who distort and destroy everything of value to humanity that they touch - will be the death of us all, and much quicker than through the effects of global warming, which is also greatly accelerated by the ghoulish, greedy rush to grow food for cars rather than people. In such a murderous environment -manipulated purely for the profits of the Lords of Capital. The men who profit from such mass murder use terms like "structural adjustment" and "economic fundamentals" to attach a veneer of rationality to a chaotic system they have created on the fly for the sole purpose of mega-theft. In the end, the Lords of Capital have mastered only one art: the production of overlapping calamities, each more lethal than the last.

Posted by malct @ 04:28 PM 17 Comments

Come on Stuartz, tel us how dis be good for da BTL

Evening Standard: Heading home, half of capital's migrants

Tens of thousands of eastern European immigrants who arrived in London in the last four years have gone home, population experts said today...

Posted by papabear @ 04:09 PM 3 Comments

Doing Well

BBC News: US growth ahead of expectations

The US economy grew at an annual pace of 0.6% in the first three months of 2008, slightly faster than expected.

Posted by btl rules @ 03:30 PM 6 Comments

We'll scweam and scweam until we're sick, and we can you know!!

Bloomberg: King's Bonus `Squabbles' Risk Finance Jobs, BBA Says

"There are other places business can go,'' Angela Knight, the chief lobbyist of the U.K. banking industry, told treasurers at the ACT Annual Conference in Edinburgh today.'' ......so there, you big meanie.

Posted by bystander @ 03:10 PM 5 Comments

Why easy mortgages have gone for good

MoneyWeek: Why easy mortgages have gone for good

The collapse in the number of loans available to borrowers is all about the financial sector's (un)willingness to lend. And this means no going back to normal mortgage conditions anytime soon...

Posted by damien @ 02:26 PM 8 Comments

The Fed won't stop printing money, but is now meant to stop bubbles

FT: Extra powers for Fed aim to cut risk of asset bubbles

"Banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions could find their investment strategies curtailed by the Federal Reserve to reduce the risk to the economy from asset bubbles, the US Treasury said yesterday." Now, where did the present Treasury Secretary used to work?

Posted by sneaker @ 01:01 PM 2 Comments

What, a pyramid scheme ? Surely not ?

Telegraph: Rising house prices do not make us better off

5% this year. Is this a joke ?

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:37 PM 22 Comments

A house of cards

The Guardian: A house of cards

"Despite the lurid headlines, the government must not bail out the housing market: its own process of self-correction should be allowed to continue" cif does tend to attract quite a lot of comments so it might be interesting to check back later and see where the groundswell of liberal opinion is heading. In the past I've found a lot of the comments to be suprisingly pro HPI! Maybe they've all got investment properties they're worried about.

Posted by becky @ 12:31 PM 11 Comments

Are the current fears around the property market affecting you?

Merto: Big Vote: House price panic

Both bearisah options: Yes, I'm staying well clear of the property market at the moment - 34% No, the fear is unnecessary - house prices had to come down - 66%

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:13 PM 2 Comments

FTSE down to 4300 by end of summer????

Mclaren report: April 16 2008 CNBC Powerlunch Europe

Comparing the 1969 bear campaign to now. Could we have a 37pc drop in stocks by the end of summer

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:51 AM 7 Comments

Is a 30% drop in one year a crash?

BBC News: NI house prices face 75,000 drop

"The average price of a house in Northern Ireland will have dropped by 75,000 from its peak by the end of the year, an economist has said. Richard Ramsey of the Ulster Bank predicted the average price of a house would fall to 175,000." And embarrassment all round for the NI 'experts'. Apparently immigration was the driver here in NI - you know the story. Except that a study released today estimated the the immigrant population here is 1%. So were the public lied to?

Posted by shipbuilder @ 11:23 AM 21 Comments

"worst policy mistake in a generation," a former top Fed staffer said.

Wall Street Journal: Fed's Bailout Is Questioned by Ex-Staffer

"The episode will be seen as comparable to "the great contraction" of the 1930s and "the great inflation" of the 1970s, Vincent Reinhart said Monday at a panel organized by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank where he is now a scholar. Until mid-2007, Mr. Reinhart was director of monetary affairs at the Fed and secretary of its policy-making panel, the most senior position on the Fed's Washington-based staff."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:48 AM 10 Comments

Latest summary of debt stats

Credit action: Debt Facts and Figures - Compiled 1st May 2008

Funny how they managed to compile this tomorrow and release it today.! Useful reference data, but they do make the mistake of quoting averages for debt that include the very large number of people who have no interest bearing debt at all. For those who have debt, the averages are very much higher...

Posted by uncle tom @ 10:37 AM 3 Comments

With a keen eye on future profits, Tesco dumps property site

BBC "News": Tesco eyes property website sale

There is perhaps a subtle irony that an estate agent might buy the site - Tesco set it up with the hope of establishing a flat fee for sellers, until RICS successfully whinged that Tesco can't facilitate transactions without being an estate agent (in other words, "Gaah! that could kill us - pleease make them stop!") ...

Posted by paul @ 10:31 AM 1 Comments

At last! Let us quantify the losses for the numpties!

Yahoo: House prices fall by 45 per day - is this the time to selL?

New figures show that the average value of a home in the UK has dropped by 44.39 every 24 hours or 310.73 a week so far during 2008, as the property market slows down. The pace of the falls has accelerated during the past 30 days, with homes seeing an average of 55.40 a day knocked off their value, according to property valuation website Zoopla.co.uk.

Posted by inbreda @ 10:21 AM 17 Comments

Stocks haven't broke through their resistence levels yet.

Market Oracle: Worst is Not Over for Stock Market Falls, Credit Crisis Or Fed Rate Cuts

Commentators and pundits alike have erroneously stated that last week's highs in US equity indices broke important technical levels. The Dow has not only failed to breach above a key trend line resistance of 12,920, prevailing since the October highs but also failed to breach the 50% retracement from the same high to the January lows. Similarly, the S&P500's major resistance stands at the 1,410 trend line resistance acting since the October 10 highs. We remind our readers that these recurring failures are no coincidence but instead a technical failure that is largely in synch with prolonged economic uncertainty.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:04 AM 1 Comments

Following on from previous posting on win investing

Thisismoney.co.uk: Win Investing

There's one born every minute.

Posted by p. doff @ 09:27 AM 2 Comments

The AA: Negative equity not just on your home

Times: Secret tax adds 200 to cost of running family cars

More great news for Gordon as yet another tax marketing gaffe hits the road - so to speak. "The AA said that many people were falling into a negative equity trap, with their cars worth thousands of pounds less than outstanding loans"

Posted by growler @ 09:23 AM 22 Comments

Pop corks, deck the halls with bunting, party like it's 1996...still a long way to go...

Firstrung: UK house prices show first yearly fall since March 1996

"April was another difficult month for the housing market. Falling levels of market activity meant that prices fell by 1.1% during the month and ended up 1% lower than this time last year. April's fall in prices continues the trend of the last six months and reflects the weakening sentiment in the market brought about by poor affordability and tighter financial market conditions. This is the first year-on-year fall in prices since March 1996 and brings the price of a typical house to 178,555, 1,759 lower than at this time last year.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:14 AM 5 Comments

Freefall coming to a postcode near you

Telegraph: UK house prices drop year-on-year for first time since 1996

Ms Earley warned: "Weakening housing market sentiment and demand, unrelated to the financial market turmoil, will mean that we should expect slower market conditions.".... as we all have been sayign here for a long time. The interest rates are a red herring and will not prevent a major HPC. Enjoy the next 3 months, all all of the YoY will be going negative. Lets get this site updated quicker (please) thanks :-)

Posted by growler @ 09:13 AM 1 Comments

first annual house price fall for 12 years....

BBC News: First house price fall since 1996

House prices in the UK have recorded their first annual fall for 12 years, according to the Nationwide.

Posted by matt @ 08:55 AM 0 Comments

UK is being throttled by Labour. Economy going down the tubes!

Telegraph: Advertiser WPP may join tax exodus

One of the world's largest advertising companies is threatening to join the growing number of firms leaving Britain in protest at Labour's complex and expensive business tax regime, it was has been disclosed. WPP, a member of the FTSE-100 index of Britain's biggest companies, is considering moving to Ireland to reduce its 200 million annual tax bill. The move could cost the Treasury up to 40 million in revenue.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:51 AM 12 Comments

The 'get rich quick' brigade move into BTL - the new 'inside track'?

win property investing: WIN Investing

These people seem even more humourless - with far bigger promises - than Inside Track....you know it's the end of the road when websites like this start appearing...... ''....Like to become a investment millionaire, in 3-5 years or less, and never have to work again Like the security of a regular monthly income from just a few hours work a week Like to learn simple proven property investment strategies anyone can use (whatever your background, financial status or credit rating) Like to get rid of your debts once and for all and have a realistic money-making system to help you achieve all your financial goals, FAST...''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:00 AM 11 Comments

Nationwide goes YoY negative!

Press Association: House prices fall 1% in one year

House prices have fallen by 1% during the past 12 months, the first year-on-year fall since 1996, figures show. The cost of a home dropped for the sixth month in a row during April, sliding by 1.1%, as the credit crunch continued to take its toll on the property market. The fall helped turn annual house price growth negative for the first time in 12 years, leaving property values 1% lower than they were in April 2007, according to Nationwide Building Society.

Posted by little professor @ 07:57 AM 35 Comments

Blanchflower calls for interest rates to be slahed to help limit a correction in the housing market

Telegraph: UK house prices now falling year-on-year for first time since 1996

Speaking yesterday, Professor Blanchflower said: " In my view a correction of approximately one third in house prices does not seem implausible in the UK over a period of two or three years if house price-to-earnings ratios are to be restored to more sustainable levels."

Posted by steve g @ 07:33 AM 0 Comments

Nationwide HPI survey reports 1% YoY fall

Nationwide: April HPI press release

April was another difficult month for the housing market. Falling levels of market activity meant that prices fell by 1.1% during the month and ended up 1% lower than this time last year. Aprils fall in prices continues the trend of the last six months and reflects the weakening sentiment in the market brought about by poor affordability and tighter financial market conditions. This is the first year-on-year fall in prices since March 1996 and brings the price of a typical house to 178,555, 1,759 lower than at this time last year.

Posted by steve g @ 07:25 AM 1 Comments

poles go home

REUTERS: Survey shows half EU immigrants to UK have left

"Four in ten of the returned Polish migrants we surveyed think that better employment prospects in Poland would encourage Poles living in the UK to return to Poland for good," it said.

Posted by sold out @ 06:59 AM 14 Comments

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Front Page of the Metro - Blanchflower Blanches

Metro: Houses prices 'may fall 30%'

House prices could fall by 30 per cent over the next few years, a senior Bank of England official forecast. But, despite claims homeowners could see up to 1,000 a week wiped from the value of their properties, the drop would be sustainable, according to monetary policy committee member Prof David Blanchflower. 'Sustainable' - what's the fuss all about. Ohh to see all the cheery faces on those carefree commuters tomorrow.

Posted by castrogtx @ 11:42 PM 0 Comments

"clamouring to get out of Manchester's property market"

Manchester Evening News: City property bubble bursts

Beetham Tower was touted as one of the most desirable addresses in the country by developers and more than 90 per cent of its apartments were sold before construction began in 2005. But just a year after the first residents moved in, 43 out of 219 apartments in the 47-storey building on Deansgate are now on the market with many offering large discounts of up to 40,000

Posted by the poacher @ 11:03 PM 0 Comments

Are fixed rates now about to fall?

Active Mortgage Advice: Unintended Consequences

Interesting view that 50billion liquidity injection actually caused an increase in cost of fixed rate mortgages with plausible reason to think fixed rates may now fall.

Posted by danwebb @ 10:56 PM 0 Comments

Off topic just this once but "I will let you know if I break down"

Evening Standard: Motorists fury as 'profiteering' Shell and BP post record profits of more than 3million an hour.

Consumers are facing huge price hikes in food and utility bills. Petrol prices are rising while oil companies' profits are going sky high. Oil companies should not be profiteering while so many are struggling to make ends meet. So I am going to try it...

Posted by yoyo1 @ 10:55 PM 19 Comments

Politicians have a vested interest in peddling this swindle. It's the latest way of bullying us and picking our pockets.

Campaign for Truth: Eco-loonies reject an inconvenient truth

Most news bulletins these days are little more than party political broadcasts by Greenpeace, who put the "mental" in environmentalists. They're like the lunatics who walk up and down Oxford Street wearing sandwich boards and screaming that The End Of The World Is Nigh. Coleman insists that in a couple of years most of us will wake up and realise that we've been had. It's fair to assume he has some idea of what he's talking about, since - unlike most of the hysterical doom-mongers - he's been a meteorologist all his life. Sometimes you do need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

Posted by malct @ 10:36 PM 36 Comments

What is "large scale"?

Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank Says It Had First Loss in Five Years

Deutsche Bank doesn't plan any ``large-scale redundancies,''

Posted by alan @ 10:08 PM 1 Comments

Pain to last three or four years,

the guardian: HBOS expects three years of pain

The rights issue and fresh credit crunch writedowns had been widely expected in the City, along with a gloomy forecast from the group for the UK economy and house prices. Hornby made it clear that he expected the current market downturn to last "not just for 08 and 09" but for three or four years

Posted by sold out @ 10:02 PM 8 Comments

Comical Ali(stair) made false claims

Times: King denies 50bn lifeline will renew mortgages

Here we go... the truth is 50bn were meant to prop up banks balance sheets and profits... not a lifeline for home owners and BTLs alike (big big laugh)

Posted by confused76 @ 09:34 PM 17 Comments

The writing was on the wall years ago

ThisIsMoney: Curb these property clubs (2005)

I thought this was well worth promoting to the front page - from Rental John in the comments of this Inside-Track-went-bust posting: "INDUSTRY leaders have called for investor protection against property clubs, amid fears of a looming crisis in the buy-to-let flats market. Four of the property industry's most influential bodies have asked for closer monitoring of the unregulated clubs, which often charge thousands of pounds for membership and advice." (December 2005)

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 09:33 PM 5 Comments

And Opec Says Expect Oil At $200 A Barrel?

CNN News: Shell's profit soars to record $9 billion

Despite poverty, starvation, losses worldwide of jobs, homes, bank accounts and a decent lifestyle, the oil barons are profitting quite handsomely. And, as usual, at every one else's expense. Make you boil? When does anyone bother to stop them?

Posted by indiablue19 @ 06:20 PM 11 Comments

CBI - "There is no doubt that consumers are tightening their belts as the mood about the economy and outlook worsens,"

BBC: Housing decline hits High Street

Poor weather, an early Easter and the slowing economy led to the worst month for retailers since November 2005, business group the CBI has said. In an April survey of shops, it found sales of items linked to the housing market, such as electrical and DIY items, were all down from a year ago. The CBI expects sales to fall again in May, but at a slower rate than in April, due to "challenging conditions".

Posted by jack c @ 06:09 PM 10 Comments

Dinner Party Chatter...

Daily Mail: Average property is losing 45 a DAY

... I forget who asked when the topic of dinner-parties would turn to 'how much has your house lost you?' from how much they were making, but hey - here's the answer. (As an aside, I clicked through to this from Deltablow the Troll's 'Massive Rate Reduction' misrepresentation below.) Mu-ah-ha-ha-ha indeed.

Posted by albertini albertino @ 06:00 PM 0 Comments

Sellers advised "be prepared to accept a lower offer"

Citywire: Lorna Bourke: What is your house worth?

House prices are falling, there is no doubt about that. All the house price indices are pointing in the same direction down. The big question is how much have they gone down already, how far will they fall and does it matter?

Posted by jack c @ 05:46 PM 7 Comments

On the day Inside Trash goes under Paragon announces - "the average buy-to-let investor intends to hold a property for around 17 years"

Mortgagestrategy: Buy-to-let investors here to stay

A mass exodus from the buy-to-let market by investors is unlikely, says Paragon Mortgages. While many predicted a flight of investors from the buy-to-let market as a result of Capital Gains Tax reform, and the current instability in the housing market, survey results from Paragon suggest that professional landlords are sticking around.landlords represent the core of the buy-to-let market they are investors that base their purchase decisions on proven tenant demand for long-term returns rather than speculative investment for a quick profit.

Posted by jack c @ 05:31 PM 19 Comments

This is fantastic! Too good to be true! Insane Trap went belly up!!!!!

ThisIsMoney: Buy-to-let giant Inside Track goes bust AHA HAHAH HAHAH

Sorry if I have missed some earlier post. this is the best news of the year. AHH AHHAHH AHHAHAH AHHA HAHHH "Britain's biggest property investment company made its money encouraging people to purchase - at a supposed discount - strings of new-build flats to rent out: a business model that has faltered in the face of falling property values, below average rents and a mortgage freeze" and now is the turn of all those that have invested through Insane Trap AAHHA HAH HAHAHAHHAHAH HAHAHAH

Posted by confused76 @ 04:25 PM 19 Comments

Comical David and the slump that is better than it could have been if things were better than they are

DavidSmith: EconomicsUK - Mortgage approvals 64,000

"Mortgage approvals in March hit a new series low of 64,000, down from 72,000 in February (itself revised down) and an average of 81,000 over the previous six months. Though the figure was weak, it was perhaps not as weak as it could have been given earlier data from the British Bankers' Association" AHH AH HAHAHAH AHHHAH HAHAHHA AHAHHA HAHHA HAHHhAHAHAHHA HAHAHAH

Posted by confused76 @ 04:12 PM 12 Comments

lessons learnt?

London Business School: Crunch time: lessons learnt from the credit crunch crisis

"Considering the damage it has done, what is surprising is just how relatively small the sub-prime market was. In 2006, Moodysrated about $460 billion of assets with some component of sub-prime but it was a very small proportion of the overall global credit market, says Sergio Ravich (MBA93), Senior Managing Director at BearStearns International."

Posted by wojtek @ 03:41 PM 0 Comments

Bit of fun..

Telegraph TV: Livedraw

Also check out the older Livedraws - pretty much on message!

Posted by uncle tom @ 03:22 PM 2 Comments

house prices fall 12.7% most on record

bloomberg: house prices fall 12.7% most on record

don't worry though us has very low employment!..average price in us is about 105,000 for a detached house. uk prices are totally nuts just think its gona crash through the floor much quicker than I thought

Posted by taffee @ 02:50 PM 14 Comments

a social and economic nightmare that will make the last depression look like a stroll in the park.

debtism.com: Getting Ready for Hard Times

WARNING FROM 2006 The USA is leading the Global Economy toward the biggest economic catastrophe ever recorded. Depreciating fiat dollars and legal and accounting defects in US tax and welfare laws are the root cause of the inevitable calamity. There appears to be a growing public awareness that the American Dream is slowly evolving into an American Nightmare. Voices that sound alarms of the impending peril are woefully muted or publicly ignored. author, John T Koraska, MSgt, USAF, Retired, age 70. While in the service (1954 1974), the author was a Communications Intelligence Analyst/Reporter. Although paid by the USAF, most operational duties were under the direction of the National Security Agency (NSA). high quality reference material

Posted by malct @ 02:35 PM 5 Comments

You can polish it, mash it, paint it, dice it, grate it, mould it and apparently sell it - It's still s**t though!

Bloomnerg: Pandit's `Closer to End' Means No Escaping LBO Loans

Banks escaped about $65 billion of LBO commitments in the past four months in part by lending money to private equity firms such Blackstone Group LP's GSO Capital Partners and Apollo Management Inc. Wall Street is getting rid of the debt individually, in packages or placing it into structures such as collateralized loan obligations, which pool loans and slice them into pieces with various ratings to sell to investors. ``They're substituting one credit for another but they're still ultimately on the hook for the debt,'' said Robert Willens, a former managing director Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. who runs a tax-advisory firm in New York.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 02:23 PM 0 Comments

Tip of Iceberg

CNN: Countrywide loses $900M as more loans blow up

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Countrywide Financial Corp. swung to a nearly $900 million loss Tuesday, after the mortgage lender was forced to set aside more money for credit losses as a result of further deterioration in the housing market.

Posted by mark @ 02:17 PM 0 Comments

Mortgage lending lowest since records began

The scams that have been going on throughout the boom come to light

Evening Standard: Fraud and dodgy dealings emerge as property prices fall

Surveyors over-valuing, complacent solicitors, dodgy mortgage brokers... maybe 'Inside Track' and their ilk should watch out, as I'm sure there will be thousands of repossessions following in their wake over the next couple of years

Posted by doom&gloom @ 01:46 PM 5 Comments

Mervyn Gives our Banks a Good Kicking

Guardian: Lure of City money too strong for young, says Mervyn King

Some nice plain speaking: "The governor of the Bank of England issued a stern rebuke to the City today, saying that too many of Britain's most talented young people are being lured into financial careers by the huge bonuses on offer."

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:12 PM 29 Comments

What credit crunch

my finances: No Crisis

Seems like the end of increasing mortgage rates looks like the peak has been achieve and rates will now drop.

Posted by kermit @ 01:08 PM 0 Comments

Prices "slashed" in London

London evening Standard: Advice to first-time buyers and investors: don't do it

This is the most bearish article in the London Evenig Standard I have EVER seen. e.g. Anyone else facing redundancy or even repossession should make every effort to sell before the latter takes place. The experience of the early Nineties is that being repossessed is the worst possible option. My advice to buyers - especially first-timers and investors - is much simpler: don't do it.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:02 PM 5 Comments

First of many

Daily Mail: Massive rate reduction

seems like we are beginning to see some relaxing again.... price to stay high i think..

Posted by deltablow @ 12:57 PM 1 Comments

The Iraq adventure has seriously weakened the U.S. economy, whose woes now go far beyond loose mortgage lending.

NPR Economics News: Joseph Stiglitz on Our 'Three Trillion Dollar War'

The major factors driving up war costs go beyond the number of troops deployed or the operating pace or "optempo" of the war. Since 2004, the average number of military personnel deployed to the region in a given period has grown by 15 percentbut the costs have rocketed by 130 percent. Similarly, the intensity of operations is estimated to have risen by 65 percent during the periodhalf the rate of cost increases. In 2007, private security guards working for companies such as Blackwater and Dyncorp were earning up to $1,222 a day; this amounts to $445,000 a year. By contrast, an Army sergeant was earning $140 to $190 a day in pay and benefits, a total of $51,100 to $69,350 a year.

Posted by malct @ 12:56 PM 6 Comments

The penny's dropped!

The Telegraph: HBOS cash call: will it be enough?

What is also worrying is that the vast bulk of the banking losses declared to date have had absolutely nothing to do with the UK at all and all to do with the situation over the pond. With housing now showing signs of weakness over here as well it is not a great leap of imagination to conjecture at the potential liabilities encompassed by our own mortgage time-bomb and to believe that the big banks will need the cash not just to expand but to survive. Arguments about the fundamentals being completely different between us and the States due to restrictions on the availability of housing stock are correct insofar as this line goes, but the same could have been said of Japan 17 years ago. They live on a similarly crowded island group with just as rabid protection of 'greenbelt' status - bu,

Posted by cheekie charlie @ 12:54 PM 0 Comments

Inside Track in Administration

This Is Money: Buy-to-let giant Inside Track goes bust

Inside Track, the company that promised to turn a generation of Britons into 'property millionaires', has gone into administration.

Posted by jayk @ 12:45 PM 0 Comments

Gwynedd bucking the trend ?

Daily Post: House prices up 9%

Year on year prices up 9%, in Gwynedd North Wales, with a claimed 1.5% growth in March. Has Greenbay been on a buying spree?

Posted by p. doff @ 12:43 PM 3 Comments

A scapegoat on the way to market?

BBC News Online: Mervyn King set to face scrutiny

When Mervyn King appears before the Treasury Select Committee later, it will be the first public opportunity to discuss the 50bn-plus loan scheme for British banks which he unveiled on 21 April. Many said Mr King's focus on "moral hazard" during that early period - the risk that special support for banks now would reward banks who had made reckless decisions in the past - was a reflection of his overly 'academic' approach to the financial markets. Will Mr King 'eventually' have to fall on his sword, or be stabbed in the back?

Posted by rental john @ 12:38 PM 0 Comments

Buffett snaps up Wrigley but still warns of recession

MoneyWeek: Warren Buffett bags a bargain

Warren Buffett is doing deals again - this time for Wrigley - but he still thinks we're facing a recession. Meanwhile, rights issues from RBS and HBoS show that while the government would love to spin its way out of a downturn, the banking sector is facing up to this reality. But while it may be better for the banks to do this sooner rather than later, the dividend will also take a hit - meaning investors should ignore tempting yields, and stay away from bank shares.

Posted by damien @ 12:31 PM 2 Comments

So much for switching to interest only

guardian: Abbey clamps down on interest-only deals

Abbey today become the first major high street lender to clamp down on low-cost "interest-only" mortgages by reducing the maximum loan for such deals to as little as 50% of the property's value

Posted by mken @ 12:29 PM 2 Comments

unbelievable manipulation

bbc news: king wants to put houses in the basket

house prices not in the inflation basket during the boom not being put in the backet. outrageous surely

Posted by taffee @ 11:06 AM 44 Comments

Good explanations of terms here

Safe Haven: Credit Contraction, Economic Bust, and Deflation

"Members of the deflation camp assert that the large-scale contraction of credit happening within the banking system means that deflation is upon us, even if the money supply is expanding. At the same time, another camp is pointing to the breathtakingly rapid growth in M3 money supply as evidence that hyperinflation is a near-term threat. In our opinion, both camps are wrong"

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:33 AM 12 Comments


Reuters (BoE): Mortgage Approvals Drop to Record Low

Figures from the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals -- a leading indicator of housing demand -- dropped to 64,000 last month from a downwardly revised 72,000 in February. That was the lowest number since the current series began in January 1999. It was also the lowest since monthly records started in April 1993, although at that time remortgaging approvals by banks were included.

Posted by camem' @ 10:02 AM 0 Comments

House prices to rise late this year

introducer: Not Market Crash

5% growth in prices predicted the later part of this year

Posted by colin @ 09:53 AM 11 Comments

Squoze and squoze and squoze ...

The Independent: Nationwide doubles the deposit required for new mortgages

I love the following quote in this article: Jeremy Leaf of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), said: "Sentiment is at a very low ebb and will continue to remain depressed while the economy suffers from this unique liquidity blight. The slowdown in prices is directly attributable to a lack of available finance which has hit demand." "Unique liquidity blight": Hahahahaha; Yeah like I get when I spend recklessly on presents over christmas, is that a "unique liquidity blight". What a joker.

Posted by last_days_of_disco @ 09:53 AM 6 Comments

Buy to Let strong

introducer: Buy to Let strong

Constant streams of tenants....

Posted by matthew @ 09:50 AM 10 Comments

HBOS follows RBS with rights issue

FT: HBOS launches 4bn rights issue

Britains biggest mortgage lender, launched its 4bn rights issue on Tuesday as it announced write-downs totalling 2.84bn against impaired securities in its first quarter, and plans to bolster its capital base.

Posted by jack c @ 09:27 AM 5 Comments

RBS, HBOS - whos next?

Citywire: HBOS confirms 4 billion rights issue

HBOS has announced a 4 billion rights issue in a bid to strengthen its capital base and protect its competitive advantage.

Posted by jack c @ 09:24 AM 0 Comments

New deals coming

Housefund: Nationwide first with package

Nationwide is the first to make an attractive package for first time buyers, news is a number will follow in the coming weeks

Posted by greenbay @ 09:07 AM 9 Comments

It's a housing led recession, stupid !

Telegraph: UK job cuts feared in economic slowdown

Take note David Smith. Oh, you are sooooo wrong ! "The conditions are building for an avalanche (or redundancies) - the question is whether there will be a trigger point. I suspect the housing market will hold the key."

Posted by voiceofreason @ 06:53 AM 5 Comments


Telegraph: Matt


Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:17 AM 5 Comments

Inside Track Goes Bust!!!

Guardian: Champion of buy-to-let boom succumbs to credit crunch

Inside Track, the company that spearheaded the buy-to-let investment boom, is to go into administration early this morning. Inside Track blames the credit crunch for its collapse as banks tighten up on buy-to-let lending, effectively ending 100% loans. Profits for the group three years ago were as high as 12m, but internal management accounts for the nine months to January 31 this year show income of just 239,000, with a 97,000 loss in January alone. In early March, Inside Track announced it was ending its workshops as interest in buy-to-let diminished. The last seminar, at Warrington this month, attracted fewer than a dozen people.

Posted by little professor @ 12:40 AM 47 Comments

Monday, April 28, 2008

ERrrrmmm it currently about 2.5%... this might push it to 2.6 maybe

BBC News: Opec warns oil could reach $200

Opec, the oil producing cartel, has warned that the price of crude could keep rising to reach $200 a barrel.

Posted by mattormsby @ 11:11 PM 0 Comments

Losing one in five jobs on Wall Street could have dire consequences for the city's economy

the truth seeker: Wall Street may lose 36,000 jobs

Wall Street, the lifeblood of New York City's economy, could lose over 36,000 jobs because the financial credit crisis has rocked markets and stunned the U.S. economy, estimated James Brown, a labor market analyst with New York state's labor department. "History suggests it's going to be something of that magnitude," Brown told Reuters, noting Wall Street employment peaked at 200,300 in December 2000, nine months before the September 11, 2001 air attacks.

Posted by malct @ 09:05 PM 1 Comments

Poxtons - obstructive actions to keep money in their account?

LandlordZone: Foxtons still did not pay me my FIRST RENT!

Tip of the iceberg? Poxtons on the slide?

Posted by rental john @ 07:53 PM 6 Comments

More gags

Assetz: Good news - Prices are falling

The news today appears to have been rather bad if one only considers good news to be increases in house prices. For those looking to sell or borrow against the value of their house it certainly is, but less so for those looking to buy. While some will groan at the news, not so buy-to-let investors. Lynsey Sweales, director of the buy-to-let centre, a specialist firm, told the Independent that existing landlords are keen on more property investment for precisely that reason. She said: "Our customers are not worried about falling house prices."

Posted by big bad wolf @ 07:15 PM 10 Comments

Your weekly dose of comedy from Mr Lawz

Assetz: Ignore the hype, there is no house price crash

Figures from the latest Assetz House Price Watch, which analyses data from the five main house price indices, suggests that the market is in fact flattening, and not dramatically falling as reported by some. Stuart Law said: "Our analysis of average monthly prices across the main house price indices, combined with averaging these across the prior three months, takes out all of the volatility and statistical errors that are evident in the monthly data. This much clearer picture of market performance and reveal that average annual price growth has now flat-lined at around 0%, with no significant decline. As I have been stating for some time now, the housing market is very unlikely to crash. The fundamentals of supply and demand support this. I stand by prediction of 5% growth in 2008."

Posted by little professor @ 06:50 PM 25 Comments

All good stuff ...

London Evening Standard: Once red-hot property market hits big freeze

A more-or-less identical article was in the sister paper 'London Lite' under the heading "Housing in limbo as sales drop up to 50%". Factoid: "Average prices in [a particular] postcode hit a five year high of 670,000 last year but dipped to about 600,000 in the last quarter"

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 06:21 PM 3 Comments

Auto finance arms feel the credit squeeze

FT.com: Auto finance arms feel the credit squeeze

The effects just keep rippling through... soon they will start rippling back (well they have done already really)

Posted by whiteknight @ 06:14 PM 9 Comments


FT: Brokers warn of further rises in mortgage rates

Until confidence returns and Libor starts to fall, new mortgages will stay expensive, said Melanie Bien at Savills Private Finance. Some lenders may be reluctant to compete for new mortgage assets now that house prices have begun to fall. For some banks and building societies, it doesnt make sense to cut rates to encourage assets on to their books, said a spokesman at one of the banks. Theyre being incredibly careful about their capital to boost earnings and margins. Incredibly careful - that's a new vocabulary for the banks!!!!

Posted by rental john @ 05:45 PM 0 Comments

EC scathing over Brown and Darling's borrowing

Times: EC scathing over Brown and Darling's borrowing

European Commission scathing over Brown and Darling's borrowing The EC will formally rebuke the Chancellor and the Prime Minister for allowing Britains finances to slide further into the red Brussels inflicted a double embarrassment on Alistair Darling today, challenging his economic forecasts as too rosy and launching disciplinary action against Britain for allowing its finances to slide too deep into the red.

Posted by caramba @ 04:35 PM 1 Comments

But wasn t 50bn all we needed to un-clog the mortgage misery?

Times: Nationwide and Abbey turn the screw on mortgage

"Nationwide, the UK's biggest building society, and Abbey, the third-biggest lender, announced a raft of new rules today that will squeeze out borrowers who do not have a deposit of at least 10 per cent of their property's value, after chopping the maximum loan size from 95 per cent to 90 per cent for the majority of deals" Nationwide also announced that it would reject borrowers with 1 million loans, after cutting its maximum loan size from 1 million to 500,000" TIIIIIIIMMMMMBER!

Posted by confused76 @ 04:21 PM 20 Comments

Morley - the dollar could become fashionable again.

fundstrategy: Dowdy currency will be hip again

The dollar slides and investments in American equities made five years ago are worth 20% less than the same investment in British equities. But the dollar could become fashionable again. Over the past five years, the dollar has fallen badly out of favour with investors; falling 22% in real terms against a basket of currencies containing America's main competitors. The dollar has not experienced such a loss of confidence since the mid 1980s. As the dollar's slide has gathered pace, governments around the world have begun to unhitch their currencies from the dollar - even Jay-Z, the hip-hop star has forsaken fistfuls of dollars in favour of euros in his music videos.

Posted by jack c @ 03:37 PM 7 Comments

ITV sounding bearish

ITV News: 'House prices continue to fall'

Plenty of good news from ITV: "The latest falls helped tip the annual rate of growth into negative territory". "Those who do manage to sell their home are having to accept an average of 92.7 per cent of their asking price," "Furthermore, virtually every other element of the Hometrack survey pointed to further house price weakness ahead."

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 03:11 PM 6 Comments

Which way will gold go?

Safe Haven: Precious Points: The Final Cut?

"The dollar rally and the notion commodities have cracked all seem to rest on this idea of the Fed raising interest rates again relatively soon to contain inflation. The fact, however, is there's little to suggest anyone actually wants a stronger dollar, just a stable currency that will make business more transparent. The wave of inflation triggered by the current easy money policy has only just begun to materialize and, because of the consumer's link to interest rates through their home mortgages, it will be all but impossible for the Fed to make any more than token hikes in their target rate. "

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:25 PM 10 Comments

Prices down 5% over last six months!?

BBC: Survey sees house price slowdown

If we take the midpoint of the Nationwide and Halifax indices as at September 2007, HPI was running at 10%-ish. If both indices are now flat y-on-y, this suggests to me that in the six months March - Sept 2007 prices went up 5%, and in the most recent six months they'd gone down 5%. The HPC seems to be getting off to a cracking start!

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:22 PM 3 Comments

HM Treasury Report from 2004

HM Treasury: The UK Mortgage Market: Taking a Longer-Term View

So the warnings were sounded in 2004 to team GB, but I'm guessing they were ignored ?

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:08 PM 1 Comments

House prices could fall 25%, warns Savills

Yahoo: House prices could fall 25%, warns Savills

Estate agent Savills said the worst case scenario would see prices slump 10% in 2008 and another 15% in 2009, although the "super prime" market will avoid a sharp drop.

Posted by mark @ 02:07 PM 4 Comments

Most bearish article I've seen in the Express yet

Daily Express: Homes now cheaper than a year ago

They've disabled comments on the article though!

Posted by pelethar @ 01:53 PM 15 Comments

Deckchairs on the Titanic..

Telegraph: Nationwide plans new mortgage range to help first-time buyers

"which is one of just a couple of lenders to offer deals to buyers with just a 5pc deposit " "First-time buyers with this minimum deposit will pay a fee of just 299 for a three-year fixed rate of 6.45pc" Fees are a relatively new invention - a smokescreen to disguise the fact that borrowers are not really able to afford the loan. - should be banned!

Posted by uncle tom @ 01:25 PM 15 Comments

SCARY-there were only 15,800 repossesions in 1989

scotsman: there were only 15,800 resossessions in 1989

holy cow...we are already double the repos than end of 1989 which was 17 months into the slump. Really scary statistics imo..could we see 150,000 repos at the bottom?

Posted by taffee @ 01:20 PM 17 Comments

Dom Joly versus the Estate Agents

channel five: Dom Joly V House Prices

"The crash is coming" Shouts Dom Joly into a megaphone at the smug owners of yuppy georgian houses in posh Islington. Especially apt seeing as it was filmed in Novermber - whilst the rest of the media was ignorong the scenario. In Episode 3 of Dom Joly's Complainers, 10pm on FIVE as well as taking bad public transport to task, and issuing Parking Wardens with tickets for ruining people's days, DOm goes on a rant about House Prices. He blames Phil, Kirsty and the Media, as well as Estate agents for the mess. He asks why people were prepared to pay 1/4 million on a new build that looks like its made of lego, and takes Foxtons to task for making themselves look like a bar. Watch as he also gets revenge on those annoying branded cars that estate agents all use. 10PM TONIGHT FIVE

Posted by matt @ 01:09 PM 0 Comments

Stark rise in repossessions forecast

Mortgagestrategy: Repossessions set to soar by a quarter

Home repossessions are set to climb by nearly a quarter this year, a report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research warns. The quarterly report, released yesterday under the title Consumer and Housing Prospects, predicts more than 33,000 home owners stand to lose their home in this year alone. The figures represent a stark increase when comparing them with past data. CEBRs predictions are up 23% compared to the repossession figures from last year, and are a massive 300% increase from 2004.

Posted by jack c @ 01:02 PM 1 Comments

Why HBoS should jump at the chance to raise cash

MoneyWeek: Why HBoS should jump at the chance to raise cash

Following Royal Bank of Scotland's record 12bn rights issue, the next in line seems to be HBoS. And the biggest weakness for HBoS is the falling UK housing market.

Posted by damien @ 11:59 AM 2 Comments

Hometrack data goes mainstream

Sky News: UK House Prices Lower Than In 2007

House prices fell for the seventh month in a row during April to leave homes costing less than they did a year ago, new figures show. The average value of a home in England and Wales fell by 0.6% during the month. It now stands at 173,100, with price drops recorded in just over half of the country. That's according to house-price information group Hometrack which says homes now cost an average of 0.9% less than in April 2007.

Posted by stew @ 11:21 AM 0 Comments

March Land Registry Report

Land Registry: March 2008 House Price Index

Wales and England......MoM; -0.4%. YoY; +3.6%. Wales and East Midlands [b]YoY NEGATIVE[/b]

Posted by geed @ 11:14 AM 11 Comments

What to do after the Crash

MSN: How to fix the economy

Last week I talked about what the likely outcome of the housing crash was going to be. And let's make no mistake about it - there will be a housing crash. There's not much that can be done to prevent that now. But what can we do to make a better, more functional economy when we actually start to recover? Has John been reading this site?

Posted by renting2 @ 10:29 AM 15 Comments

Could this be the next move by Gordon to ensure we vote

reuters: Lynchings in Congo as penis theft panic hits capital

KINSHASA (Reuters) - Police in Congo have arrested 13 suspected sorcerers accused of using black magic to steal or shrink men's penises after a wave of panic and attempted lynchings triggered by the alleged witchcraft.

Posted by mark @ 10:14 AM 11 Comments

RBS seen axing 7,000 jobs

reuters: RBS seen axing 7,000 jobs

Royal Bank of Scotland will this week start the integration of ABN AMRO's investment bank in a move likely to trigger the loss of about 7,000 jobs out of a combined total of 28,000, the Financial Times said.

Posted by mark @ 10:10 AM 2 Comments

Oil jumps $1 to record near $120 on strike, worries

reuters: Oil jumps $1 to record near $120 on strike, worries

PERTH (Reuters) - Oil leapt more than $1 to a record high near $120 a barrel on Monday after workers pushed ahead with a two-day strike that shut a major North Sea oil pipeline supplying about half of Britain's oil. Fresh violence in Nigeria and simmering tensions between the United States and major oil exporter Iran also helped to offset the impact of a rising U.S. dollar to boost oil prices.

Posted by mark @ 10:05 AM 6 Comments

Bananas with your republic anyone.

Timesonline: Postal vote fraud threatens to wreak mayoral poll chaos

Labour doing anything to stay in power, absolutely anything. Discuss.

Posted by bystander @ 09:49 AM 7 Comments

House prices to fall to 2004 levels this year alone

Reuters: Are you facing a capital loss on your home?

Finance website Fool.co.uk expects property prices to tumble 20 percent this year, taking the average British property value to 153,400 from 196,000 -- the same level as spring 2004 levels. That means that, on average, people who have bought since then will be sitting on a capital loss. Not all, however, will face negative equity, as some will have taken out a mortgage of less than 100 percent or more of the purchase price.

Posted by little professor @ 09:44 AM 1 Comments

global food crisis is a monetary phenomenon

Market Oracle: US Fed To Blame for Global Food Crisis

The US has been gaming the system for decades; sucking up two-thirds of the world's capital to expand its cache of Cadillac Escalades and flat-screen TVs; giving nothing back in return except mortgage-backed junk, cluster bombs, and crummy green paper. Nothing changes; it only gets worse. But this is different. The world is now facing the very real prospect of "completely avoidable" famine because twelve doddering old banksters at the Federal Reserve would rather bailout their sketchy friends and preserve their spot at the top of the economic food-chain then save the lives of starving women and children.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:30 AM 12 Comments

HBOS, the UKs largest mortgage lender, has said it expects a modest single digit decline in UK house prices this year.

telegraph: HBOS will attempt to raise 4bn

HBOS, the UKs largest mortgage lender, is set to launch a rights issue to raise up to 4bn as it braces itself for an ongoing downturn in the UK economy. The owner of Halifax and Bank of Scotland will make a final decision about whether to push the button at a board meeting today, ahead of its annual shareholder meeting tomorrow in Glasgow. If it goes ahead, it is likely to ask its brokers Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort to organise the rights issue.

Posted by malct @ 08:54 AM 10 Comments

agent says house prices could fall 25%

agent says houseprices could fall 25%: times

its actually happening and now agents will be forced to slash prices to stay in business I have always said its the agents bizaarly who will start and push the crash

Posted by taffee @ 08:30 AM 22 Comments

Yet another milestone!

The Telegraph: House prices now falling year on year

"The first evidence that the average home is worth less than it was a year ago is disclosed in a report today, sparking fears that hundreds of thousands of homeowners could be plunged into negative equity.Over the past month lenders have increased their mortgage rates sharply to new borrowers.The average residential property is now worth 173,100 - 1,500 less than a year ago, claims Hometrack, the property research company.The 0.9 per cent slump is "highly symbolic", say industry analysts, because it is the first time since the credit crisis began that any property index has shown house prices falling on an annual basis".

Posted by onyerhike @ 07:49 AM 1 Comments

Job losses are increasing

Telegraph: Company insolvency climbs 17pc

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, in the first three months of 2008, 3,359 companies failed across the UK - a 21pc jump on the previous quarter and a 17pc increase on the same time last year.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:53 AM 1 Comments

Worth a read

FT: Global adjustment will be long and painful

So this crisis is about to end, right? There are two failsafe ways to justify a solid dose of optimism: define the crisis in a sufficiently narrow way; and, even better, look at the wrong crisis. In that spirit I am happy to state my optimism about the prospective end of the subprime crisis.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:28 AM 1 Comments

Hometrack: -0.6% MoM, -0.9% YoY

Press Association: House prices fall for seventh month

House prices fell for the seventh month in a row during April to leave homes costing less than they did a year ago, figures showed. The average value of a home in England and Wales fell by 0.6% during the month to stand at 173,100, with price drops recorded in 51% of postcodes, according to house-price information group Hometrack. The latest falls helped tip the annual rate of growth into negative territory, with homes now costing an average of 0.9% less than they did in April 2007. At the same time there was a fall in both the number of new buyers registering with estate agents and the number of sales agreed.

Posted by little professor @ 12:13 AM 19 Comments

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Two houses may be almost identical, yet only one will sell

Times: The market: sellers of less-than-perfect homes forced to slash price

Here is a conundrum to test those who think they know what is going on in the property market: an estate agent has two houses for sale, both fine examples of thatched New Forest cottages, both beautifully restored and put on the market at a similar price, at roughly the same time. One is snapped up within a few weeks and sells for more than the asking price after a bidding war between two buyers. The other languishes on the shelf for months. As property prices continue to fall, even the smallest niggles issues that would be overlooked in a stronger market are prompting buyers to walk away or make offers well below the asking price.

Posted by jack c @ 09:48 PM 0 Comments

First RBS, now another one topples

BBC: HBOS 'to consider rights issue'

HBOS, the UK's fourth-biggest banking group, has declined to comment on reports that it is considering asking its shareholders for extra cash. Sunday papers reported that HBOS directors will decide on Monday whether to ask investors for as much as 4bn. Last week the Royal Bank of Scotland said it would pursue a 12bn rights issue to reinforce its position.

Posted by little professor @ 08:52 PM 4 Comments

Take the test, do HPC Prophets have a similar personality type?

Humanmetrics: HUMANMETRICS

Humour me, take the test, I have long thought that HPC prophets have a different personality type, one that makes us not follow the crowd, maybe you could post your results? This test is based on Carl Jung and Isabel Myers-Briggs typological approach to personality. When answering questions, please choose one of two possible answers you agree the most. If you are not sure how to answer then the decision should be based on your most typical reaction or feeling in the given situation. Respond to all the questions to get a reliable result.

Posted by gone-to-colombia @ 08:33 PM 90 Comments

Damn! people are cottoning on to the Lidl Coolness!

Telegraph: Every Lidl helps during credit crunch

As food prices soar and the credit crunch bites, the middle classes are discovering a quirky charm in discount supermarkets they once thought rather below the salt. Dressed in a cashmere sweater and tweed trousers, with a string of pearls around her collar, Marian could be browsing at a farmer's market in the Prigord or the King's Road Waitrose. In fact, she is in Lidl, next to Clapham Junction station, surrounded by pensioners pushing tartan wheelie bags, tattooed men with pencil-point pupils, and mothers in burqas trailing three children under three.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:08 PM 7 Comments

Bank bail-outs to be kept secret

daily mail this is money: Bank bail-outs to be kept secret

"The Bank of England has imposed a permanent news blackout on its 50bn-plus plan to ease the credit crunch Requests under the Freedom of Information Act are to be denied. Details will be kept secret even after 30 years - the period after which all but the most sensitive state documents are released"

Posted by worried @ 05:23 PM 0 Comments


The Wall Street Journal: Reverse mortgages getting better

Tomorrow's reverse mortgage products also will be different, as will tomorrow's lenders, Johnson told the industry gathering. "Our one-size-fits-all product has worked in the past, and I'm proud of it. But it won't work in the future," he said. "We'll have products that target life stages, not just ageing, because borrowers' requirements change as they age so they can have the lifestyles they want. They're looking for a lot more than just reverse mortgages."

Posted by yoyo1 @ 03:19 PM 5 Comments

All good stuff

Daily Telegraph: Citywire: Britain facing one of the worst housing crashes in history

As an anecdote, the landlady came round yesterday 'for a chat' and that's all it was! She asked us whether we intend to renew when our 6 months were up and we said we'd think about if. But we went and viewed another house that's 600 a month cheaper, and I prefer that one anyway.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:15 PM 17 Comments

"It doesn't work like that!"

Times Online: Beware cheap loans with a sting in the tail

Before you rush to snap up a mortgage with a cheap headline rate, check you won't face an extortionate fee. Offer of low rate offset by high fees....which in affect is the same thing to the man in street as a high rate overall. I bet the posters in the window displays a massive sized % sign and teaser rate (in the shape of a cartoon purse no doubt).....that is eyecatching....but you'll need to go to Spec Savers to read the small print at the bottom. Shysters! the lot of them.

Posted by rental john @ 01:52 PM 0 Comments

Britain will escape a repeat of the negative equity crisis of the 1990s

FT: UK housing slump fears overplayed

Britain will escape a repeat of the negative equity crisis of the 1990s unless there is an unprecedented fall in house prices, according to Financial Times analysis that suggests talk of a disastrous housing slump is overplayed.

Posted by wojtek @ 01:48 PM 4 Comments

Long article, but worth a read.

Times Online: The mortgage lenders hall of shame

After lenders refused to pass on their 50 billion bail-out, we reveal whether your bank or building society played fair in the credit crunch.

Posted by rental john @ 01:41 PM 1 Comments

Stockmarkets have a long way to fall yet

MoneyWeek: Weve a long way to fall yet

A new bull market began in March 2003. Or so most people agree. But a longer-term view suggests that the post-2000 bear market isnt actually over yet - and won't be for quite a few years.

Posted by damien @ 12:39 PM 0 Comments

2012 will see the Next Great Pension Robbery

Citywire: Will a pensions revolt follow the 10p tax U-turn?

The proposed automatic National Pension Scheme will see many scheme contributors being taxed at 40% whilst in some cases that effective tax rate could be as high as 100%. Yes, you heard that right; some people could lose all of the value of their pension savings if they are poor enough to be entitled to means-tested handouts when they are retired.

Posted by enuii @ 10:50 AM 19 Comments

Hard landing after hedge fund "mass heist "

Independent: The herd, the hedge fund and the billion dollar rip-off. How we all got mugged

Herd-like behaviour among investors is not simply explained by stupidity. Most asset bubbles are fairly obvious phenomena, even while they are still inflating, yet despite the fact that everyone knows they must eventually deflate, they remain strangely seductive. Nor is this apparent willingness irrationally to ignore the dangers explained entirely by greed: you know it's a bubble, you know it will eventually end, but hey, prices could double again before gravity takes hold.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:28 AM 3 Comments

HBOS on the edge?

Independent: HBOS to reveal new writedowns as investors fear rights issue

Investors will find out on Tuesday the extent of further write- downs at HBOS, owner of the UK's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax, amid concerns the bank will launch a rights issue.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:21 AM 3 Comments

Coment on Bank Bail Out

Active Mortgage Advice: Liquidity Scheme

Don't trust the banks to negotiate a bail scheme out that benfit anyone but themselves. The current 50billion bail out allows banks to dump previous reckless lending without providing any incentive to offer new mortgages at a competitive rate,

Posted by dcwebb @ 10:15 AM 0 Comments

A journalist who is selling to rent

Guardian: Crash course to being mortgage free

He called the crash last time round at the right time, and now plans to do it again. I think he may be about 6 months too late, but a very well written article nevertheless. He also gives us a mention.

Posted by jonb @ 09:57 AM 14 Comments

Rosie, eat many humble pies!

Rosie Millar @ the times: Join me in the new austerity

This was the BTL baroness that was teaching how to get rich quick with property just a few months ago in the Times. AHHHAHHH HAHAHHAHAH HAHHAH HAHAHHA. Hope we ll see her begging for food by Kings Cross, after being repossessed her flats in Islington

Posted by confused76 @ 09:44 AM 15 Comments

33,000 repossessions and the rest.

Guardian: Repossessions set to soar as costs spiral

According to a report today from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), more than 33,000 borrowers will lose their homes once their fixed-rate mortgages, agreed prior to the credit crunch, come to an end and interest costs rise.

Posted by mikelivingstone @ 08:08 AM 0 Comments

Out of love with Bohemian living style that helped developers squeeze out last inches of space

Telegraph: Loft apartments: Have we fallen out of love with lofts?

Interesting article in the sense that it has been written in the first place. Definitely in the property porn style of writing, but could be considered bear food as it states how buyers have fallen out of love with overprices loft appartments. In terms of the depth of journalism very much the same as a fashion rag article, equivalent to well last year we loved brown, but this year it is definitely out. I guess it will get across more easily to some readers.

Posted by mikelivingstone @ 07:13 AM 0 Comments

This will be fun if the Governent gets involved

Telegraph: Industry urges Government to act over Grangemouth strike

Industry wants the Governement to intervene in the Grangemouth strike "at the higest level". Oh to be a fly on the wall in those discussions! Gordon: Come come man I here these money purchase pension schemes are quite good Unite: If you hadn't robbed the pensions funds this might never have happened Gordon: Oh now man, your getting all hot and bothered over nothing, I never worry about my pension Unite: Thats because MP's pension are gold plated idexed linked final salary schemes.. Why don't you lead by example and close the MP's final salary pension scheme! Gordon: Now what good what that do? Unite: It would make you MP's take an interest in economic matters! Oh will Gordon take the plunge?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 07:08 AM 9 Comments


MSN Money: Why oil could hit $180 a barrel

Needless to say, today's petrol would look cheap if oil prices hit $180 a barrel. The good news is that's about thsi price, experts say, it would send global consumption tumbling and oil prices into retreat, as drivers scrambled to find ways to conserve. In other words a deep recession will solve the oil price price - nice solution!! The problem is supply and demand; demand is going up and supply from Russia, Nigeria and Mexico is going down. Bio fuels to the rescue? I suspect not; the choice will be simple food to eat or petrol to driver?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:42 AM 8 Comments

BTL to the rescue

Independent: Buy to let keeps the housing blues at bay

In fact, British landlords are barely breaking into a sweat. "Our customers are not worried about falling house prices they are making use of them to buy more property with enhanced negotiating power," says Lynsey Sweales, director at buy-to-let specialist The Money Centre. "They have experience in the field, owning an average of 7.2 properties each, which means they have an adequate financial cushion." According to the latest buy-to-let index from lender Paragon, average monthly rents reached a new peak of 990 in February.

Posted by little professor @ 12:47 AM 31 Comments

Elliott wave 5 ready to go?????

Market Oracle: Silver and Gold at Critical Juncture

Elliott Wave suggests a final wave 5 up for silver and hence analysts suggest this is only the preceding wave 4 correction. That may well be but the problem is that is a pretty big wave 4 correction in price and time. However, the wave 2 top of November 17th at $16.20 has not been breached (barely) so theoretically another final move up cannot be discounted (though one suspects that heavy selling will be encountered at or near the high of $21).

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:23 AM 2 Comments

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Ity the Mortgage Poor, the Boomerant Poor and the Plastic Poor

Telegraph: Financial crisis: What kind of poor are you?

Can't make my mind up whether all the stereotypes in this article are faux or not, but it's a hilarious read bordering on black comedy and a sad reflection of the position the UK is in these days.

Posted by enuii @ 10:07 PM 5 Comments

No crash

daily mail: Overhyped

Overhyped property crisis...

Posted by greenbay @ 06:48 PM 16 Comments

It's all in the Stars...

Astrological Musings: Britain's biggest banks use astrology!

Christeen Skinner blinks at the screen of her computer and takes another slurp of coffee. Its half past seven in the morning and shes preparing for a crucial meeting with the chief executive of the High and Mighty fashion chain...Christeen is one of a growing, albeit secretive, network of astrologers who work for seemingly conservative British institutions such as high street banks, City investment funds and retailers. Desperate to avoid financial meltdown in the ongoing credit crunch and to spot fashions and consumer trends before they start, these institutions have turned to the stars to divine the future.

Posted by hotfoot @ 04:51 PM 1 Comments

Recap of events in the past few weeks

Telegraph: Humour

Keep clicking on 'previous'

Posted by yoyo1 @ 04:35 PM 3 Comments

It's all going in the right direction

The Independent: Persimmon suspends new projects amid fears of falling prices

I am sure that this ties into something I read on HPC, where it was suggested that when housebuilders stop building it is followed by spiralling house prices. Guess who gets scr*wed(same preople as abolition of 10p tax band)? See-Under the plan, a pet policy of the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, the Government foresees an annual new-build rate of 240,000 homes per year. Last year, the industry brought about 165,000 new homes on to the market. Mr Farley warned that 2008 will be much worse. "It is going in the wrong direction. We could see 110,000 or 120,000 [houses built next year]," he said. How can it be ok to say one thing and do the other in this day and age-scandalous-I for one am sick of it. P.S BOE will put INT Rates up 0.5% on 8th May or sooner!!!

Posted by i-cld-murder-a-blt @ 04:24 PM 6 Comments

It's no surprise that an oil company leads the list of 2007's top profit-makers.

CNN: The Fortune 500's biggest winners

Exxon Mobil, the world's biggest oil company, posted a 2007 profit that was almost twice as much as that of the next company on this list

Posted by mark @ 02:43 PM 1 Comments

Maybe Gordon will bail this pension out? Another 1 trillion of cheap money!!!

Yahoo: Petrol Panic Fear As Oil Refinery Shuts

"People should accept that they will probably be rationed to an amount of petrol to conserve supplies.

Posted by mark @ 02:41 PM 3 Comments

Let's all laugh at the greedy sellers

Guardian: Gazundering ... it's just daylight robbery

We've been mugged! That, according to Guardian Money readers, pretty much sums up what it feels like to be "gazundered". Gazundering is where a homebuyer demands a reduction on the agreed purchase price at the 11th hour, and it often rears its ugly head when house prices are falling. Several readers told us their gazundering horror stories, and here are a selection:

Posted by little professor @ 02:22 PM 20 Comments

So if they don't build and sell houses - what's the business model?

BBC News online: New builds stopped as sales fall

A leading house builder has abandoned plans to build homes on new sites until mortgage conditions improve. North Yorkshire-based Persimmon said the lack of cheap mortgages and a fall in consumer confidence had resulted in a loss of business. Builders sitting on a mass of unsold development land? Question: How does this business model work them?

Posted by rental john @ 11:10 AM 0 Comments

Only aliens can save the BTLers now

FT: Merryn Somerset Webb: Rescue rumours require a reality check

"Anyone who thinks that the worst is past is surely living in the same fantasy world as some of the residents of the Aude: still to come are the bankruptcies, repossessions and rises in unemployment that will follow the end of the housing bubble."

Posted by letthemfall @ 10:36 AM 7 Comments

Not all roses in the rental garden

FT: Rents squeezed by flood of properties on to market

"Rents in some areas could fall this year as agents are seeing a flood of available properties, a drop in corporate lettings, and an unwillingness from tenants to lock into new, more expensive, rental agreements."

Posted by letthemfall @ 10:28 AM 15 Comments

Bullish analysis of the situation....

FT.com: UK housing slump fears overplayed

''...Britain will escape a repeat of the negative equity crisis of the 1990s unless there is an unprecedented fall in house prices, according to Financial Times analysis that suggests talk of a disastrous housing slump is overplayed....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:35 AM 33 Comments

ego home for loads of cash

daily male: eco home for 7 million

allright for sum innit....and bilbo for a neighbour, , my tents drying out nicely now...

Posted by camping @ 07:07 AM 1 Comments

If 50billion buys BoE a 0.6% IR rise, what rise will 100billion buy!

Telegraph: Mortgage rates rise for second time in days

Halifax, which is responsible for two out of every 10 mortgages, has changed all of its fixed rate and tracker rate mortgages to new customers, with a two-year fixed rate deal, for instance, climbing from 6.12% to 6.49%. Some rates have increased by 0.6%, adding 900 on to the annual repayment charges of a 150,000 loan. Rates up from 6.12 to 6.49% or put another way the monthly mortgage bill will increase by 6%

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:51 AM 5 Comments

Part 1 of Pillars of Prosperity - Audio tape

Ron Paul: Has Capitalism Failed?

Suggests that the financial problems we face today are not a failure of free markets and too much capitalism, but are the result of a command and control economy which has ensured that western economies have never experienced free economics and true capitalism. Explains that this is the cause of the 1930's depression and the economic crisis today.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:51 AM 15 Comments

You thought you understood money? Think again


It has been called "the most astounding piece of sleight of hand ever invented." The creation of money has been privatized, usurped from Congress by a private banking cartel. Most people think money is issued by fiat by the government, but that is not the case. Except for coins, which compose only about one one-thousandth of the total U.S. money supply, all of our money is now created by banks. Federal Reserve Notes (dollar bills) are issued by the Federal Reserve, a private banking corporation, and lent to the government.1 Moreover, Federal Reserve Notes and coins together compose less than 3 percent of the money supply. The other 97 percent is created by commercial banks as loans.2

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:45 AM 18 Comments

Friday, April 25, 2008

Homer Simpson gets Free Greenbacks

BBC: US to send out $100bn in rebates

Instead of cutting interest rates further the US starts sending out cheques to stimulate the Walmart Economy. This is the one trick that Gordon Brown would never copy.

Posted by enuii @ 11:14 PM 9 Comments

Housing capitulation in the media!!

Times: Housing gloom: the silver lining

The silver lining for me is very simple. I will buy the same house in 2 years for 30% less!!!! "The storm clouds looming over the housing market grow darker every day. But for some aspiring homeowners there could be a silver lining, with bargains emerging as asking prices tumble and sellers become ever more desperate to get properties off their hands" " Council of Mortgage Lenders predicts that more than 45,000 homes will be repossessed this year, against 27,100 last year" Propertysnake.co.uk, a website that monitors falling prices, says that some desperate vendors have reduced asking prices by as much as 44 per cent as the credit crisis has worsened" this is fanztztaztix!!

Posted by confused76 @ 10:55 PM 3 Comments

This is a tragedy. An entire country conned into property investment!

Times: Rugby players feeling the crunch as property investments tumble

"some of the games finest players have taken a hit in the property market hard enough to make even the stoutest second-row forward double up with pain" lots of muscles but little brain "Vainikolo has invested in a couple of properties in the southern hemisphere and a couple in Britain. They like the touch and feel of property, they understand the mechanics of it, Mr Battersby said" Battersby and his cronies should be jailed!

Posted by confused76 @ 10:48 PM 3 Comments

Sanity has been restored, justice has been served!

Times: Banks pull the plug on buy-to-let landlords

"The era of the amateur landlord has all but ended, with banks effectively refusing to lend to new entrants to the buy-to-let market. Thousands of existing landlords also face huge increases in the cost of remortgaging, experts said yesterday. First-time landlords, including parents eager to buy a house for their student children, will now find it almost impossible to enter the housing market"... priceless!

Posted by confused76 @ 10:41 PM 4 Comments

Eye-watering rates downunder

The Australian: Double Whammy for Australian borrowers

AUSTRALIAN home borrowers are doing it tougher than their British and US counterparts as the global credit crunch and surging domestic inflation push rates even higher. ANZ has the highest of the variable rates, along with St George Bank, at 9.47 per cent. NAB is at 9.46 per cent while Westpac is at the bottom of the ladder at 9.37 per cent. It comes as this week's high inflation numbers in Australia dampened hopes for an official rate cut, while the banks continued to lift rates, irrespective of the Reserve Bank leaving the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent. ... Inflation at 7.845% ... How much is the AUD really worth?

Posted by mken @ 09:33 PM 1 Comments

Interest Rates up for Savers

guardian.co.uk: Nationwide ups rate as it seeks savers

Nationwide building society increased the interest rate paid on one of its savings bonds yesterday to 6.6% as Britain's savers were enjoying a bonanza because of the credit crunch. Banks and building societies are desperate to raise more funds because the crisis has closed off international money markets. This has seen a savings war break out between building societies as they push up rates to attract more deposits. Nationwide upped the interest rate it pays on its one-year, fixed rate e-saving bond to 6.6% significantly higher than the 5.99% interest it is charging those taking out mortgages.

Posted by plato @ 08:17 PM 7 Comments

Who is your favourite chick?

Bricks Chick: Housing market: the experts' views on property prices

"All confidence has gone from the market and so there is no incentive for buyers to move now, unless there are matters of birth, marriages, death or divorce. This state has been brought on by the difficulties in securing mortgage funding, fears of redundancy, the credit crunch, non-domicile tax changes, the cost of fuel, the cost of living - the list is endless. But if Gordon Brown doesn't know what is happening in the economy, what hope do we have?" YIEIIIEIIEIEIEIIEPIEIIEIEIIEIAH HAAHAHH

Posted by confused76 @ 08:13 PM 15 Comments

U.N.: Soaring food prices 'global crisis'

CNN: U.N.: Soaring food prices 'global crisis'

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon calls for immediate action to quell rising food costs.

Posted by mark @ 04:10 PM 8 Comments

Time to throw the money counters out of the temple, again

timesonline: Archbishop of Canterbury criticises rich over credit crunch

"Dr Williams and other bishops around the world are becoming increasingly concerned at the growing gap between rich and poor as the credit crunch bites, causing difficulties for the poor and first-time buyers but leaving many in the worlds financial centres still enjoying large bonuses and barely affected by the economic downturn." ... Whatever happened to ethics?

Posted by bystander @ 03:53 PM 19 Comments

Pushing a piece of string

FT: Ministers given warning about 'unrealistic' target for new homes

The homebuilders have well and truly thrown in the towel (see article). "However, Caroline Flint, [the very tasty] housing minister, appealed to housebuilders not to be driven by short-term problems. "It is essential - and in their own interest - for housebuilders to base decisions on the economic fundamentals and longer-term trends." Er ... since when it committing commerical hari kiri in homebuilders' own interest?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:50 PM 18 Comments

No cheap mortgages - Oh dear

Telegraph: UK house prices will fall almost 20pc in next two years

"Nor will further interest rate cuts feed through to the rates offered by mortgage lenders to new borrowers, it said."

Posted by letthemfall @ 03:29 PM 1 Comments

Surely just another 50bn would do the trick

Telegraph: Cheltenham & Gloucester raise rate again

One of Britain's biggest mortgage lenders has raised its rates for the second time in three weeks.Mortgage experts said the move highlighted how the Bank of England's pumping of 50 billion into the financial system earlier this week had failed to "stop the rot" in the mortgage market.The country's largest house builder also warned yesterday that the worst mortgage conditions in 30 years were causing havoc. Cheltenham & Gloucester, the fourth-largest mortgage company, is putting up its rates for new customers, some by as much as 0.6 per cent.

Posted by jack c @ 02:57 PM 4 Comments

London is different from other parts of Britain because...

Evening Standard: Global toll rises to 47,000 as more London jobs lost

It just means that prices in London will rise in single digits from now on. Nothing to worry about folks! Don't panic, don't panic...

Posted by brian2 @ 02:14 PM 7 Comments

What ... ! Another One?

Edeus exits mortgage orgination as staff cut: ftadvisor

Edeus has announced it is temporarily dropping out of the mortgage orgination market and is cutting its workforce by half. Wonder how temporary that would be then?

Posted by renting2 @ 01:11 PM 2 Comments

Dresdner Kleinwort - The wheels are coming off the eurozone economy,"

Telegraph: Euro dives as wheels fly off eurozone economy

The euro has suffered its sharpest drop in four years as a blizzard of weak data from Germany, Belgium, France, and Spain spark fears that economic contagion may be spreading from the Anglo-Saxon world to Europe. Spain's business federation warned that Spanish unemployment will rise by 500,000 by the summer unless the government takes "valiant measures" to offset the housing and construction crash. "For every dwelling not built, two workers will lose their jobs," said the group's president, Gerardo Diaz Ferran. The IMF has cut its eurozone growth forecast three times since October.

Posted by jack c @ 12:45 PM 28 Comments

Rosie Millard: No more spend, spend, spend

BBC: This Week

9 mins 30 secs in. Rosie Millard has a "package" on how the middle classes are suffering. She's then on the sofa with Charles Kennedy bleating on about her 50,000 debts and worried about her mortgage reset coming up in October. She neglected to mention her BTL portfolio for some reason. When Charles Kennedy started saying the root of the problem was the commedy mortgages given out at the behest of the banks and that common sense has been telling people (even his junior staff) "for years" this is wrong, Andrew Neil seemed to cut him off.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:29 PM 16 Comments

Another bit of reality bites in realty

Money Week: UK house builders want a bail-out

I've got a business selling pet rocks which has been hit by the credit crunch. Can I have a bail-out too?

Posted by dark_horse @ 12:21 PM 0 Comments

Another succesful PPP from the government. Who knows? They could roll this out nationally and the Privatise it!

BBC: Prisons drug trade 'worth 100m'

An estimated 100m worth of drugs are being traded in prisons each year, an ex-prison service worker has said. Former National Offender Management Service drug treatment head Huseyin Djemil said the Prison Service had no idea of the size of the drugs market. Question is "is this man on drugs himself? Or where has he been for the last 10 years?"

Posted by stevie dee @ 11:54 AM 0 Comments

from last month but good as a 'Sub-prime for dummies'

The New York Times: Cant Grasp Credit Crisis? Join the Club

Raise your hand if you dont quite understand this whole financial crisis. It has been going on for seven months now, and many people probably feel as if they should understand it. But they dont, not really. The part about the housing crash seems simple enough. With banks whispering sweet encouragement, people bought homes they couldnt afford, and now they are falling behind on their mortgages. Good article....

Posted by rental john @ 11:42 AM 0 Comments

Time for another look at this......as intro to this website

The Consumerist: Don't Buy Stuff You Can't Afford

Found great website here....some nice stuff, articles not in the mainstream news, etc... Enjoy.

Posted by rental john @ 11:31 AM 0 Comments

Holier than thou....I think not!

Guardian online: Barclays basks in glow of not being RBS

Here is the bravest, or most foolhardy, statement we've heard from a bank chief executive for a while. "I recognise that when some banks miscalculate risk then the reputation of the whole industry is tarnished," said Barclays' John Varley.

Posted by rental john @ 11:23 AM 0 Comments

Reality Check

Mortgages.co.uk: Buy-to-let investors set to expand portfolios

"Professional landlords will expand or maintain their buy-to-let portfolio in coming months, a new survey has found." Now for real life story - I just bumped into an acquaintance I haven't seen for months. He's a serial BTLer who started 2 years ago, now has 40 odd properties scattered across the UK and is connected with a cartel. He left work Nov 2007 to grow his empire. I asked if he was still expanding. "Only if there's a 20% discount on it. Can't get mortgages anyway, and tenants are falling behind with rent cos of inflation. Upshot is I'm having to get another full time job to make up the shortfalls."

Posted by renting2 @ 11:08 AM 25 Comments

Another article on the avalanching situation....

ThisIsMoney: Persimmon building freeze hits Footsie

Britain's largest housebuilder said the 'unprecedented tightening in the mortgage market' has savaged business in the past three weeks as banks and building societies rein in lending. Stop building overpriced boxes......OK! {As a diversion see this on youtube.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFSLUJ8SIbc&feature=related }

Posted by rental john @ 11:00 AM 0 Comments

A warning from history: Or merely a blueprint for the future?

Wikipedia: Khmer Rouge

I have placed this link on HPC, in light of concerns of food shortages, the financial turmoil and the general apathy of our current political system. Although the Khmer Rouge was a fairly shortlived affair, and their doctrines extreme. I would argue that the same fate is being played on the UK poplation (less overtly), vis-a-vis debt, student debt, diminishing standards of living - QOL. Breakdown in society, etc, etc. "In power, the Khmer Rouge carried out a radical program that included isolating the country from foreign influence, closing schools, hospitals and factories, abolishing banking, finance and currency, outlawing all religions, confiscating all private property and relocating people from urban areas to collective farms where forced labor was widespread. The purpose of this"

Posted by stevie dee @ 10:56 AM 0 Comments

Instead of Daily Mash How about Jeremy Clarkson

autotrader: Jeremy Clarkson's most embarrassing moments

Just a light hearted article to stop you worrying about the impending houseprice crash

Posted by mark @ 10:12 AM 2 Comments

Many a true word spoken in jest!

Daily Mash: System no longer works, confirms UN

"Meanwhile, the banks are borrowing money from taxpayers so that they can then lend the same money back to the taxpayers at a higer rate of interest than they borrowed it from them in the first place. Seriously, is it just me?" I am a taxpayer and a tenant. So that means I am paying extra tax to subsidise my landlady's mortgage. Thanks a lot, Nulabour.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:05 AM 7 Comments

Keep those rates up

Telegraph: Northern Rock's Ron Sandler is right not to pass on rate cut

"Doesn't the Chancellor understand we need to dissuade people from borrowing more? Has he missed the fact that the credit crisis was caused by there being too much debt?" Quite. Now all the banks have to do is keep savings rates up too.

Posted by letthemfall @ 10:02 AM 14 Comments

Fuel Supply Fears As Oil Refinery Closes

Yahoo: Fuel Supply Fears As Oil Refinery Closes

The offshore oil industry body Oil and Gas UK warned that this could cost an estimated 50m a day in lost production - with the Treasury taking half that hit.

Posted by mark @ 09:49 AM 10 Comments

The question is a serious one because the U.S. Federal Reserve is pumping new dollars into the global economy at an astounding pace.

Tehran Times: A rising euro threatens American dominance

As the dollar continues its relentless six-year slide against the euro and other main currencies, the question is being asked more and more: what would it mean if the dollar ceded its global dominance to the euro? What about Americas political power in the world? A continuing fall in the dollar means a fall in the global purchasing power of all its foreign assistance, whether for humanitarian, economic or military purposes.

Posted by malct @ 09:30 AM 12 Comments

Property Snake gets a Mention!

Evening Standard: Website lists bargains as prices slither downwards

The standard talks about bargain hunters using propertysnake to monitor prices, but what's more significant I believe, is that 27-30% price drops seem to be quite frequent and are affecting all values of property across London - all within a few months. I therefore, think that price reductions over the next 12-18mths will be in the 50-60% range for real bargains.

Posted by layers @ 09:26 AM 17 Comments

Absolute must read

Kitco: Hyperinflationary Depression

This guy predicts Hyperinflationary Depression followed by a Great Depression. "It is too late to stop it. The political forces and the Unfunded Liabilities would prevent the powers-that-be from ending the money-printing process, and in fact, would grossly accelerate it. This would result in a hyper inflation (400 percent inflation or more), and the eventual total destruction of the dollar. Suddenly America would find its money totally useless. Store shelves would be empty, gas would go through the stratosphere, and Americans would suffer through the greatest threat since the Great Depression of the 30s"

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:17 AM 18 Comments

This has been happening for the last few years.

BBC: Court orders to secure loans rise

All those TV 'deals' which roll all your debts into a new 'cheaper' mortgage were not devised to lower your monthly payments per se. They were devised to transfer un-secured lending to secured lending so the risk shifts entirely onto the consumer monkeys. Needless to say they've been very popular as most sheeple are financially illiterate and simply stare wide-eyed at the monthly repayment figure. "There has been a sharp rise in the number of banks trying to secure loans and credit card debt against borrowers' properties, figures suggest. The number of lenders seeking court orders to secure personal debt against property hit 131,644 in 2007, representing a 42% rise year-on-year. "

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:42 AM 6 Comments

Sales down 50%, mortgage approvals down 50%, anyone see a pattern developing?

Firstrung: NAEA admit depressingly low sales as house sales crash by 50% over Easter holiday period

Property sales decreased further in March with on average 7 sales reported per agent, down from 8 in February 2008. In comparison to the same time last year when 14 sales per agent were reported, this figure is depressingly low for the beginning of the Summer period and are similar to figures expected during the Easter period. The good news is that within the last few days there are some reports of an increase in activity which may be as a result of the Government and Bank of England's clear desire to find ways around the credit crunch.

Posted by converted lurker @ 08:39 AM 14 Comments

Housebuilding cartel attempt to restrict supply

times online: Why build houses if the mortgages arent available?

Despite the Bank of Englands move to pump liquidity into the system last week, there is no sign of mortgage conditions easing. Even if things do improve, Mark Hake, at Merrill Lynch, doubts that it will bring much short-term respite. This is because there is growing evidence that potential buyers are postponing purchases in anticipation of further price falls. Housebuyers are also nervous about the possibility of losing their jobs John White, Persimmons chairman, went as far as to say that present conditions were possibly even worse than in the early 1990s.

Posted by sold out @ 08:24 AM 5 Comments

But Gordon said there would be 3 million new homes

Times: Persimmon stops new site building as sales fall

Shares across the housing sector slumped yesterday after Persimmon revealed that it would stop building homes on new sites until mortgage conditions improved, while speculation grew that Barratt may be forced to raise capital through a rights issue. Persimmon, which is Britain's biggest housebuilder, said today that sales in the first four months of the year had fallen by 24 per cent.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:15 AM 9 Comments

Has the ONS finally been caught cooking the books

Times: High Street's boom figures under question

City economists have lined up alongside the British Retail Consortium, and senior retailers to attack figures from the Office for National Statistics that proclaim a consumer shopping bonanza has been underway since the new year. The ONS has insisted that underlying growth in retail sales remains robust. Note the words 'underlying' and 'robust', favourite Darling & Broon speak.

Posted by enuii @ 12:01 AM 9 Comments

Thursday, April 24, 2008

It is madness to try to re-inflate a bursting bubble

London Evening Standard: Don't lead first-timers astray

When house prices start to fall in this country, they typically keep on falling for at least three years, though it feels much longer. This being the case, it is quite astonishing that the Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his Chancellor Alastair Darling both seem constantly to be urging banks to free up the mortgage market and start lending again to first-time buyers. Absolutely the last thing first-time buyers should be doing at the moment is rushing to buy - if they wait, their dream house can only get cheaper. Government should leave well alone. It is madness to try to re-inflate a bursting bubble.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:22 PM 6 Comments

American Express - "Don't leave home without it".

Bloomberg: American Express's Profit Falls 6% on Consumer Loan Defaults

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card lender, said first-quarter profit fell 6 percent as more borrowers failed to repay their debts. American Express, Capital One Financial Corp. and Discover Financial Services shares have dropped more than 25 percent in the past year. Analysts say the lenders underestimate how much rising U.S. unemployment will hurt consumers' ability to repay debts. Employers cut 80,000 workers from payrolls in March, the third straight monthly reduction and the biggest in five years.

Posted by jack c @ 10:16 PM 2 Comments

The Biggest Rights Issue in Europe

THE SCOTSMAN: Shareholder to RBS bosses: 'You're paid as superhumans, but you're clearly not'

An audience brimming with indignation that belied their advancing years accused directors of "unbelievably bad management". Shareholder John Steen was more abrupt when he told the meeting he would like the board to reconsider its entire remuneration policy, saying they were paid salaries "above anything the rest of us can only dream of". He went on: "You guys are paid as though you were superhuman, and it's very clear that you're not." Twelve months after his confident performance, Sir Fred was more reluctant to take centre stage and it was halfway through the meeting before he spoke to the crowd. This lot are definitely in trouble

Posted by plato @ 08:24 PM 13 Comments

You may want to be aware of this

THE INDEPENDENT: BT customers hit by 'sneaky' 2,000 per cent price increase

BT has been accused of "sneakily" switching millions of customers to a new tariff where they will have to pay up to 2,000 per cent more for their calls. Nationwide, phone bills are expected to jump by at least 300m as a result of the rises in line rental and weekday calls, which came into force on 1 April. On 1 February, BT wrote to 10.8 million people on the BT Together 1 package telling them: "At BT, we're always looking for ways to give you value for money", and informing them they would, in future, receive free weekend calls on the Unlimited Weekend Plan. But the small print in a leaflet contained details of above-inflation price rises. Looks like they have a different view of inflation.

Posted by plato @ 06:50 PM 2 Comments

America's Money: In their own words

CNN: America's Money: In their own words

Across the nation, the deepening economic downturn is fueling anxiety among everyday folks. See what's got them worried and how they're coping.

Posted by mark @ 05:52 PM 2 Comments

Start listening at 2:46:50...

BBC 5 Live: Breakfast Show

...and listen to John Wrigglesworth; he wants a 200BILLION BAIL OUT !?!!??

Posted by arseburger @ 05:30 PM 3 Comments

Oh great......

Timesonline: Rationing of rice hits Britains Chinese and curry restaurants

Rice is being rationed in Britain as shopkeepers limit supplies to their customers to prevent hoarding. Restrictions on sales in Asian neighbourhoods are reported as emergency measures are taken by governments worldwide to combat the soaring cost of rice and prevent outbreaks of food rioting. Tilda, the biggest importer of basmati rice, said that its buyers had resorted to restricting their customers to two bags per person. It is happening in the cash and carries, said Jona-than Calland, of Tilda. Its to stop people from hoarding. I heard from our salesforce that one lady went into a cash and carry and tried to buy eight 20kg bags. Related Links

Posted by lvmreader @ 05:22 PM 19 Comments

Another stealth Tax

Chronicle and Echo: Developers face 20,000 tax for each property

Developers who want to build major housing projects in Northampton could soon be forced to pay a 'roof tax' of 20,000 per property. Just what we need, a tax on property. It would appear though that this is already in place in Milton Keynes !!! "The idea of a roof tax was first pioneered in nearby Milton Keynes where the level was set at 18,000 per property in 2005. It now stands at 18,500."

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 04:46 PM 1 Comments

Why the housing crash will topple Gordon Brown

MoneyWeek: Why the housing crash will topple Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown knows his political survival depends on house prices not falling. It shows that if you hitch a ride on a bubble when its on the way up, you should be prepared for when it inevitably pops...

Posted by damien @ 04:10 PM 13 Comments

Relocation Relocation!

CNN online: You can't pay them enough to leave

YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio (CNNMoney.com) -- When the city of Youngstown, Ohio, proposed incentives to move people out of declining neighborhoods, it sounded like a good idea - in theory. Interesting article - could be read as 'economic cleansing' or 'concentration 'zones''......NWO!

Posted by rental john @ 04:06 PM 0 Comments

USA - 'at the current sales rate, it would take 11 months to sell the supply of homes on the market at the end of March'.

CNN online: New home sales at 16-year low

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 468,000, which is down slightly from February's 471,000. However, at the current sales rate, it would take 11 months to sell the supply of homes on the market at the end of March. Given the large number of homes on the market, Anderson estimates that home sales are not likely to pick up for several more months .....I think he means several more years!

Posted by rental john @ 04:00 PM 0 Comments

100 sexiest women

Sky news: Kirsty Allsop 'Location' Star Homes In On Sexiest List

TV presenter Kirsty Allsop has been named as one of the 100 most sexy women in the world. You know you would, doomsters!!

Posted by btl rules @ 02:12 PM 17 Comments

Starbucks model cannot survive house price crash?

BBC News: Starbucks hit by housing slowdown

The demand for expensive coffee has been hit by the US housing slowdown and economic downturn. How many other "business models" will be affected. Is there a link to Harvard MBAs?

Posted by mken @ 02:07 PM 17 Comments

Has the Credit Crunch hit Blair too?

News.com.au: Blair caught on train without ticket

FORMER British prime minister Tony Blair has been caught travelling on a train without a ticket or any cash to pay the fare.

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:30 PM 21 Comments

"The Patchett family have finally given up on buy-to-let"... many more to follow!!

Telegraph: Landlords are feeling the pinch

"The couple rent out four one-bedroom maisonettes in the area. When remortgaging one property at the end of a two-year fixed-rate deal in January, the Patchetts saw the repayments on their 94,150 interest-only loan rise from 384 a month to 459 a month, compared to a monthly rent of 575. Suzanne, 44, a financial controller, said: "If we had stayed with the same lender we would have paid another 2,500 in fees, but mortgage broker L&C found us a 5.85 per cent deal with Bristol & West with no fees. "All four properties are now on five-year fixed rates because of the high bank and building society fees."Since the credit crunch the margins are too tight. It is not viable for us to invest in buy-to-let properties"

Posted by confused76 @ 01:02 PM 33 Comments

Potential for Japan-style recession

Citywire: Barclays chief raises spectre of Japan if banks become too scared

John Varley, Barclays group chief executive, warns rival banks and investors in the sector that they risk creating a Japan-style recession if they become too risk averse.Varley warns: 'The example of the Japanese economy between 1990 and 2000 illustrates what I'm talking about. The Japanese banks' sense of risk aversion overtook the financial system, and that led to a decade of economic stagnation, as the banks stopped lending

Posted by jack c @ 12:14 PM 16 Comments

Oh dear, more woes for the Banks

BBC: Banks lose overdraft charges case

The UK's biggest banks have lost a test case about overdraft charges. A judge has decided that the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) can apply consumer contract regulations to decide if bank overdraft charges are fair or not. But Mr Justice Andrew Smith said the judgement did not necessarily mean the charges are unfair. Further hearings are expected which may delay the cases of thousands of claimants trying to reclaim their charges arguing they are too high.

Posted by jack c @ 12:04 PM 14 Comments

UK in recession by 2009?

MoneyWeek: The UK will be in recession by next year

The economic imbalances in the UK are as severe as in the United States. Jeremy Batstone-Carr looks at the ongoing credit crisis, the mortgage market, employment and savings levels, and the problems in the public sector, and finds that the UK is rapidly heading for recession.

Posted by damien @ 11:42 AM 10 Comments

woevvy woevvy thexy

Yahoo: Presenter beats Moss in sexy poll

Her new calling post HPBoom now that Ch4 will give Allsop her HPC P45? Shows even all the chavs watch property porn these days and have dubious, quirky taste.

Posted by geed @ 11:33 AM 29 Comments

No mention of CPI here.

BBC: The end of cheap clothes is near

"And, yet again, the root cause of their problems can be found in America." Its all America's fault we won't let this affect our low inflation and rate cutting agenda.

Posted by cheekie charlie @ 11:10 AM 0 Comments

China's booming economy could be running out of steam literally.

new scientist: China down to 12 days of coal stocks

At the end of a cold and stormy winter, the country has just 12 days of coal reserves at most power stations. Some provinces, including Hebei, bordering Beijing, have less than a week's coal left. This is a record low, the state electricity regulatory commission revealed on Tuesday. It is often claimed that China builds a new coal-fired power plant once a week but the IEA figure suggests that it in fact builds two, assuming a typical plant size of one gigawatt. more here:- http://www.sott.net/articles/show/154448-China-down-to-12-days-of-coal-stocks

Posted by malct @ 11:08 AM 6 Comments

Sub-prime Litigation "Tsunami"

Reuters: US subprime lawsuits pick up steam in 2008--study

"The report said there were 170 subprime-related civil cases filed in federal courts in the first three months of 2008, which translates into almost two cases a day including weekends. In comparison, there were 278 subprime lawsuits brought in all of 2007 in federal courts."

Posted by blister soul @ 11:07 AM 0 Comments

Gold/silver bull not over

Safe Haven: Gold and Silver Chart Bonanza!

"First I would like to debunk some of the reasons given why the bull run in precious metals is over" 1) The Fed will be done cutting rates. 2) A recession means lower demand and consumption, which in turn pushes down inflation. 3) Precious Metals are in a bubble

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:50 AM 30 Comments

Buy gold and silver as world economy implodes

The Telegraph: This bear growls on

"Far from being the shock absorber, Europe may prove to be the accelerator of this post-bubble denouement. Once you add Europe to the Anglo-Saxon and Japanese sick list, you reach 60pc of world GDP, and two thirds world demand. This leaves the global boom on tenuously narrow ground. Who is going to buy all those exports from China? Who is going to keep pushing commodity prices into the stratosphere? This bear growls on."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:46 AM 15 Comments

And another one bites the dust

BBC News: Credit Suisse loses billions

Credit Suisse has reported a loss for the first three months of the year, hit by its exposure to the credit markets. The bank made a net loss of 2.1bn Swiss francs ($2.1bn; 1.0bn) after writing down 5.3bn Swiss francs in mortgage securities and big buyout loans.

Posted by afrobaggie @ 10:21 AM 0 Comments

The myth of housing under-supply

Defaqto: The myth of housing under-supply

the UK, the idea that house prices go up in value seems to be so entwined into the British psyche that we sometimes dont even question this reasoning. We make assumptions about how the house will rise in value, in the same kind of way we assume the sun will rise tomorrow. Capital Economics has released a report suggesting that actually many homes in the UK are under-occupied, and maybe, therefore, the argument that house prices are likely to be driven upwards over the long-term is contradicted by this finding.

Posted by michael baxter @ 09:27 AM 3 Comments

This film is just 1.5mins long and a great intro

housepricecrash: CNBC: A transfer of wealth from the poor to the wealthy

shift change handover for those who missed the nightshift

Posted by malct @ 09:26 AM 3 Comments

Wow! Persimmon stops all new developments

Bloomberg: Persimmon Home Sales Drop 24%, Defers Site Openings

Persimmon Plc, the U.K.'s largest homebuilder by market value, said sales have dropped 24% so far this year and new development has been halted because of sliding demand. Revenue dropped to 1.37billion from 1.8billion pounds and volumes have declined 18%, the York-based company said today in a statement. "It is difficult to predict when the market will improve,'' the builder said in today's statement. ``Against the current backdrop, we have postponed the commencement of scheduled new sites until the mortgage market improves.'' Persimmon dropped the most in five years in London trading.

Posted by little professor @ 08:56 AM 26 Comments

Are the sheeple finally getting the message?

ThisIsMoney: Crisis halves the housing market

The housing market has halved in a year, according to a series of reports. It emerged yesterday that house sales through estate agents are down 50% and the number of Britons taking out a mortgage has collapsed by 46%. The National Association of Estate Agents said its firms sold an average of seven homes in March, compared to 14 last year. One firm, from Essex, said: 'Agents in the county are using comments such as "dire", "apathy" and "miserable". 'There are now clear signs of redundancies and offices closing together with a strong feeling that this market is similar to 1989 (the last crash).' House prices are predicted to fall about 20% over the next two years.

Posted by little professor @ 08:37 AM 16 Comments

Mortgage demand dropping. I'm shocked

Guardian: Mortgage demand at lowest level since Labour won power

"A breakdown of the BBA data showed that the end of the house price boom has prompted a 30% year-on-year fall in equity withdrawal"...Err so hold on, someone is still mewing? Hmm I wonder if they are using the "mewed" cash to pay for their increase in mortgage costs...

Posted by pagaman @ 07:17 AM 1 Comments

Will BoE please BTL and let inflation rip?

Telegraph: Bank of England's dilemma: A house price crash or soaring inflation

Which would you rather face: a recession and house price crash or years of soaring seventies-style inflation? Two options; one nasty dilemma for the Bank of England. In particularly stark and simple terms, this is the question tearing a major split through the Monetary Policy Committee, which decides interest rates. As one central banker said, inflation is like toothpaste - easy to squeeze out of the tube; almost impossible to shove back in again. Expect more food riots!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:52 AM 36 Comments

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Eastern economies decoupling tosh

BBC: Satyam profit growth disappoints

All top IT Indian companies failed to meet forecast. These are very big companies with minimum of 50,000 employees and also registered in NYSE and a part of NASDAQ. All the tosh about decoupling of the US economy is a big tosh. Ask one question where does India and China sell to...US. And if US stops buying within few months Indians and Chinese will stop buying from us in Europe. And the circle continues.

Posted by deepak @ 11:03 PM 4 Comments

California foreclosure "surge": Up 327% from '07 levels

Los Angeles Times: LA Land

The number of California homes lost to foreclosure in the first quarter surged 327% from year-ago levels -- reaching an average of more than 500 foreclosures per day -- DataQuick said in a report, warning that the widening foreclosure problem could "spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans."

Posted by becky @ 10:59 PM 1 Comments

Very short movie, introducing Ron Paul

CNBC: A transfer of wealth from the poor to the wealthy

Thanks Malct. I thought this relevant for the front page. I'll be posting a similar audiotape on Sat morning. This film is just 1.5mins long and a great intro to a great man who freely espouses the monetary principles I've been discussing recently.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:09 PM 17 Comments

The difference between the asking price and selling price increasing

FT: Property market suffers further falls in sales

Property sales remained sluggish in March, with both the number of agreed sales that fell through and the difference between the asking price and selling price increasing.According to the latest figures from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), the number of property sales decreased further in March to reach an average of seven sales per agent, down from eight sales the month before. In comparison, 14 sales per agent were reported during March 2007.The percentage of sales agreed that fell through also increased between February and March, rising from 8.6 per cent to 10.3 per cent.

Posted by jack c @ 10:01 PM 5 Comments

Poeple are scared about rising food prices

Guardian: Spectre of food rationing hits US

The spectre of food rationing arose in America today as retailers began imposing limits on rice and flour sales following bulk purchases by customers alarmed by rocketing global prices for staple foods. Wal-Mart's cash-and-carry division, Sam's Club, announced that it would only sell a maximum of four bags of rice per person to prevent supplies from running short. The owner of one restaurant in Oakland told a local television station that the price of a typical sack of rice had risen from $20 to $40 in a matter of weeks. Expect to see the army at Tesco's soon!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 09:48 PM 7 Comments

The financial turmoil coupled with the strong euro has convinced many families to pull money out of their property overseas

times: Credit crunch hits homes in the sun

The financial turmoil coupled with the strong euro has convinced many families to pull money out of their property overseas Homeowners are repatriating millions of pounds of equity from their second properties in Europe to take advantage of the strong euro, the governments recent capital-gains tax (CGT) changes, and to protect themselves from the global credit crunch. The soaring euro is also making life difficult for prospective buyers. Foreign Currency Exchange, a broker, said 10 clients a day are backing out on overseas purchases, often because they are being forced to find a bigger deposit due to the weak pound. In the past eight months alone, a 200,000 property has become 27,690 more expensive, according to foreign-exchange firm HiFX.

Posted by chris @ 09:43 PM 0 Comments

Vince Cable talking mostly sense

Yorkshire Post: Vince Cable: The banks got themselves into this mess. Why should we bail them out?

Bank shareholders should do any bailing out. They took the profit in good times after all. Urging banks to share the costs of mortgages in trouble. "This responsibility should be enforced by a statutory obligation on both parties to submit to an independent financial assessment by an agency like the CAB and for lenders to offer a range of payment alternatives so as to keep families in their homes involving share ownership and rental arrangements with an equitable sharing of losses."

Posted by voiceofreason @ 09:02 PM 9 Comments

Closer to home....property develop jumps ship on redeveloping former Tesco site

Shropshire Star online: Developer pulls out of 7m deal

Hopes of building more than 100 homes on the site of a former supermarket in Shrewsbury have been dealt a blow after a second developer pulled out of a deal to buy the land. Morris Homes was due to buy the old Tesco site at Arlington Way in a deal worth nearly 7 million. Brief online story...also Persimon are developing a large site just north of Shrewsbury - after an initial flurry of activity last year - it's all looking a 'pretty vacant'. Just the tip of the iceberg!

Posted by rental john @ 06:45 PM 5 Comments

Oil spike fuels airline fears

CNN: Oil spike fuels airline fears

Huge writedowns at Delta and Northwest, and liquidity worries at United, show the industry is in trouble yet again.

Posted by mark @ 06:17 PM 2 Comments

Interesting pie chart

Angry renter: Online petition

This is a rant site for US renters opposed to tax dollars bailing out home owners and lenders. The pie chart at the top is interesting, as it shows that 17.5% of mortgages are either in default or foreclosure - more than I expected at this stage.

Posted by uncle tom @ 05:36 PM 15 Comments

RPI - 3.8%, CPI 2.5% Teacher pay rise 2.45%

timesonline: 8,000 schools could close in tomorrow's national teachers' strike

It is about time one of the Unions began to stand up for their members. It is shameful that the government have got away with delivering below inflation wage increases to the nurses and teachers to name but two. Teachers pay has increased by 19 per cent in real terms since 1997............... But the NUT argues that with the retail price index running at 3.8 per cent, the 2.45 per cent settlement for next year represents a pay cut. It is amazing that statistics about pay increases of 19% in 11 years is used as a stick to bash the NUT, but when you consider that HPI has been running at 180 - 270% it puts it into perspective. When will the media support the British People rather than protect the interests of an inept and deceitful government, headed by an unelected clown.

Posted by bystander @ 04:19 PM 20 Comments

Guess it was a dumb idea to give them $1.5bn last month eh

FT: Ambac hit by $3bn subprime charges

Gee, I guess they ain't so AAA after all...... Ambac Financial, the worlds second-largest bond insurer, on Wednesday posted a wider than expected first-quarter net loss, hurt by $3.1bn in charges related to subprime-related securities. The first quarter net loss of $1.7bn, or $11.69 a share, compared with a net income of $213m, or $2.04 a share, in the same period a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a loss of $1.51 a share in the first quarter.

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:08 PM 1 Comments

GE's Immelt: Housing Great Depression

CNN: GE's Immelt: Housing Great Depression

General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt says the housing crisis is the worst since 1930s' economic depression.

Posted by mark @ 04:03 PM 0 Comments

More financial alchemy? This has to stop - the same mistakes are being made again!

Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley Raises $2.5 Billion for Real Estate

Morgan Stanley, like Blackstone Group LP and Lone Star Funds, is raising money to take advantage of a drop in asset prices following the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market. MS plans to invest $30 million to $100 million of equity per investment, mainly in commercial property assets including offices, hotels, stores and industrial buildings. ``There's a dearth of investors for that part of the capital structure in the U.S., so you can achieve returns you haven't been able to achieve for a decade in the U.S. in mortgage debt,'' he said. ``We've looked at buying from people that have originated the debt and own it,'' said Carrafiell. ``We've also been approached by banks to team up with them to provide that slice of a new mortgage they're about to write"

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 04:03 PM 0 Comments

Americans getting off their butts?

CNN: Backlash grows against the housing bailout

The website Angryrenter.com, launched just last week, has a vitiation demanding that Congress not pass any bailout programs that reward risky borrowing and lending. To wit: "Let the free market sort it out!"

Posted by holding out @ 03:55 PM 17 Comments

Poor little rich guy

Press Association: Guy Ritchie laments property market

English natives are being priced out of the property market by new money being invested from abroad, film maker Guy Ritchie has warned. Ritchie, married to American singer Madonna, said it was almost impossible to buy a house in central London without 10 million. He has been making a film inspired by the way the capital has changed due to "new money" coming into the UK. "There hasn't been a property correction here for 20 years," he told Empire film magazine. "House prices don't go down, they just go up. And the natives of England are sort of being left behind "

Posted by little professor @ 03:52 PM 5 Comments

CPI is of course the best measure ..............

BBC: Family food shop up '15 a week'

The highest food costs since 1945 have added 15 to a weekly supermarket shop for a family of four in the UK, new research suggests. Comparison website MySupermarket.co.uk says a basket of 24 staple items including tea bags, milk and eggs costs 15% more than it did 12 months ago. The findings are based on its price comparisons of certain everyday items at Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda. A white loaf was up more than 20% at 65 pence at Tesco and Sainsbury's.

Posted by jack c @ 02:24 PM 23 Comments

Don't leave your house unattended for too long!

RIA Novosti: Police is Southern Russia say 'house stealing' is normal practice

A villager in south Russia's Astrakhan Region has been detained on suspicion of stealing his neighbor's house, which is common practice in remote areas, a local police spokesman said Monday. The spokesman said the hapless house owner, who had been away for four months, reported the theft to police after he returned home to find his house gone and just the foundations remaining.

Posted by afrobaggie @ 01:11 PM 7 Comments

Mortgage lending enters prehistoric territory

Firstrung: Mortgage approvals across all sectors begin to crash due to evaporation of credit

Gross lending weakened again in March and is expected to continue to weaken as approvals for all forms of mortgage lending have declined further.Net mortgage lending was lower in March reflecting weaker gross lending The annual growth rate has stabilised around 13% in recent months. All forms of mortgage approvals weakened in March and at 129,300 were at their lowest since September 2000. Approvals for house purchase were the lowest since the series began in September 1997. Approvals for remortgaging, though weaker than recently, represented close to 50% of total approvals.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:04 PM 3 Comments

Speculation is mounting that ...................

Guardian: Will Barclays and HBOS have to tap up investors next?

Speculation is mounting that Barclays and HBOS will need to follow Royal Bank of Scotland in tapping shareholders for cash amid pressure from regulators on banks to plug an estimated 37bn hole in their capital cushions. Barclays and HBOS are expected to tell the City within days whether they need to bolster their financial position and increase their write-downs for losses in toxic investments following the record-breaking 12bn rights issue from RBS.

Posted by jack c @ 12:58 PM 12 Comments

Roof caves in on housebuilders as London banks suffer

Financial Times: Roof caves in on housebuilders as London banks suffer

Barratt's shares down 7% so far this morning... Haven't checked other housebuilders but presumably they are taking a caning as well.

Posted by quoth @ 12:55 PM 0 Comments

Dig up!

BBC News: Brown Defend U-turn on 10p Tax

In what will be seen as a U-turn forced by Labour rebels, the chancellor said he would assess the loss to pensioners aged 60-64 and childless people. The compensation deal will be unveiled in the autumn and backdated to April.

Posted by afrobaggie @ 12:55 PM 10 Comments

Yet another one bites the dust

Mortgagesolutions: Elephant places subsidiary into liquidation

Elephant Loans & Mortgages Plc has placed one of its operating subsidiaries, Elephant Loans Ltd., into liquidation as part of an ongoing restructure. The firm will now conduct its trading activities through another subsidiary, Elephant Loans (Direct) Ltd.

Posted by jack c @ 12:31 PM 1 Comments

No silver bullet for the liquidity crisis

Citywire: Mortgage lending sinks 46% in 12 months, BBA says

Mortgage lending sank further into the doldrums with mortgage approvals to buy houses falling by 18% in March, according to the British Bankers Association. The figures from high street lenders show a 46.2% slump in approvals for house purchase mortgages from March 2007. Approvals to buy house fell to 35,417 in March form 43,147 in February, a dramatic decline from 65,841 in March last year. Even remortgages have been hit with a 13.6% fall in approvals in March to 60,503 from 69,997 in February.

Posted by jack c @ 12:15 PM 14 Comments

Gold not so overbought now

Safe Haven: Encouraging Action for Gold Bulls

"Now, this correction could go on awhile longer and I don't consider a downside target between $800-$850 to be out of the question, but we may only end up seeing a time (sideways) correction in gold much without much more downside in terms of price."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:50 AM 12 Comments

House purchase loans approved -43.7% compared with a year earlier!

British Bankers' Association: March figures for the main high street banks

Marchs net mortgage lending weakened and all forms of mortgage approvals declined. Credit card lending increased slightly as other unsecured lending weakened. Personal deposits grew more strongly than in recent months. Lending to financial companies continued around trend. All forms of mortgage approvals weakened in March and at 129,300 were at their lowest since September 2000. Approvals for house purchase were the lowest since the series began in September 1997.

Posted by my 2 cents @ 11:43 AM 0 Comments

More destruction please - WE ARE not ready for CHANGE yet

Market Oracle: US Fed Takes Money From Main Street to Give to Wall Street

In essence, Federal Reserve has reallocated money from Main Street to Wall Street. This massive shift of funds to Wall Street aways from producing sectors of U.S. economy has some strong implications. U.S. recession will be deeper and longer. Rather than allowing system to purge itself of weak financial institutions, Federal Reserve is providing them with special funding. Money has been shifted from goods and services producing sectors to non productive financial entities.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:33 AM 2 Comments

Approvals 46% down on March

BBC: Slump in bank mortgage approvals

If this carries on you will be able to count them on one hand.

Posted by paul @ 11:17 AM 0 Comments

Mortgage approvals slump

daily mail: Mortgage approvals slump to lowest level since records began as banks warn loans could get even more expensive

"The number of approvals has fallen by 46 per cent in 12 months with just 35,417 passed for house purchase in March, according to the British Bankers' Association (BBA). "

Posted by worried @ 11:07 AM 0 Comments

Why a global recession is a possibility

MoneyWeek: Why a global recession is a possibility

"...there is enormous connectivity between all the worlds economies... it would be wrong to assume that the present financial crisis, whose epicentre is the United States, couldnt be followed by financial and economic crises elsewhere."

Posted by damien @ 10:15 AM 4 Comments

MPC minutes show disunity

BBC News: Bank split on move to cut rates

Six wanted a cut of 0.25%, two wanted no cut and Danny boy wanted 0.5% Has there ever been a three way split before?

Posted by uncle tom @ 09:54 AM 6 Comments


Share prices (BBC): Market data - Alliance and Leicester

It's not just B & B who are in trouble...

Posted by uncle tom @ 09:48 AM 1 Comments

Modern-day Rachmans watch out New Liebor is out to get you (and not before time)

ePolitics: MPs to debate rental market

"Clear evidence of families with children - in particular single women with children - who have to move just about every six months" ... "people complain about the housing repairs and the next thing they find that their tenancy isn't renewed". Grasping BTL landlords watch out, the labour Left (god bless them) is resurgent as Broon's grip weakens and they are about to make it a lot harder to push your weight around. (That's on top of the tax bill that will shortly arrive).

Posted by montesquieu @ 09:45 AM 18 Comments

The British real estate market is on life support

information clearing house: Enough With The Cuts, Already

Rising Libor puts the Fed and the Bank of England in a tough spot. The $100 billion liquidity-injection is the biggest bailout in the BOE's history, and it was granted without public input or Parliamentary authorization, just like the Bear Sterns transaction. The bankers call the shots while the public picks up the tab. The BOE's action puts to rest the idea that the worst is behind us. It isn't; in fact, recent estimates suggest that the losses to the banking system could exceed $1 trillion. There's still a lot of carnage ahead.

Posted by malct @ 08:07 AM 17 Comments

Try 50 trillion next time.....

Times Online: Mortgage lenders warn that higher rates here to stay

''...Mortgage rates will continue to rise and may not return to the low rates seen last year, despite the banking sector bailout announced this week, lenders told the Chancellor yesterday....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:02 AM 0 Comments

Banks 50bn rescue plan will allow BoE to keep interest rates higher!

Telegraph: Bank of England hawk sees inflation risk if interest rates cut

Hopes that the Bank of England will slash interest rates have been undermined after a key policymaker hinted that the Bank's rescue plan for credit markets will free it up to use rates to fight inflation.

Posted by munimula @ 07:17 AM 0 Comments

German bank sues UBS for dumped 'toxic' loans

Telegraph: UBS 'dumped its loans on us' - client

UBS bankers dumped half a billion dollars of "toxic" sub-prime mortgage securities on a client to boost revenues and secure their "extraordinary bonus payments" with no regard for the consequences, a letter of claim seen by The Daily Telegraph alleges. German regional bank HSH Nordbank is suing the troubled Swiss giant, claiming that it lost at least $275m (138m) in a scheme devised by UBS bankers "to enhance [their own] results".

Posted by munimula @ 07:13 AM 0 Comments

The ANZ Bank has dramatically widened its provision for bad debts as a major investment bank has warned of cracks appearing in the Australian economy.

peter martin: Cracks" in the Australian economy

"Cracks" in the Australian economy I can hear it slowing.

Posted by chris @ 04:46 AM 1 Comments

Current LIBOR rates are underpricing default risk

The Market Oracle: LIBOR Interbank Market Stays Frozen Despite Bank of England 50 Billion Bailout

Whatever spin the government puts on the conditions attached to the swaps, the fact is that bad debt that cannot be priced by the market IS being put up as collateral against as good as cash bonds. Therefore the banks can literally walk away from the bad debts, leaving them on the governments balance sheet.

Posted by inthedelhi @ 02:54 AM 6 Comments

Flawed UK Bank Model MKII?

Guardian: B&B says more customers struggling to pay mortgages

Bradford & Bingley admitted this morning that more of its customers are struggling to pay their mortgages as the economic slowdown bites but claimed that the buy-to-let market is still buoyant.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:48 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Even less money to waste on Mortgages

Times: Era of cheap food ends as prices surge

Families have been warned that the prices of basic foods will rise steeply again because of further acute shortages in the commodity markets.

Posted by enuii @ 11:11 PM 9 Comments

The price of gasoline is consistent with current inflation

Ludwig Von Mises Institute: Economics 101: The Price of Gas

Adjusted for inflation and tax, gasoline prices should actually be higher than they are today. "First, we need to take into account inflation. The result of the Federal Reserve printing too much money is a loss of purchasing power of the dollar: something that cost $1.00 in 1950 would cost about $8.78 today. As for gas prices, in 1950 the price of gas was approximately 30 cents per gallon. Adjusted for inflation, a gallon of gas today should cost right at $2.64, assuming taxes are the same." But taxes have risen considerably, meaning that, adjusted for inflation (inflated money supply) gas is cheaper now than it was in the 1950's.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:21 PM 13 Comments

This is Significant

Cheltenham & Gloucester: Buy-to-Let policy changes from C&G

IGNORE THE LINK. See the first post

Posted by renting2 @ 09:09 PM 9 Comments

Mumbai, Dubai, Shanghai - or goodbye

Times: Market downturn forces executives to quit London and New York

Rich bankers are leaving the City... how can house prices possibly stay flat?

Posted by confused76 @ 08:50 PM 3 Comments

Just above assetzz sh*te

findaproperty: House Prices To Drop 20 Per Cent?

"Capital Economics also take issue with those citing strong economic fundamentals as supporting house prices." ......sound economic BS, from GB and AD, don't you just love anagrams???

Posted by bystander @ 08:49 PM 0 Comments

What an *rze

findaproperty: The Only Way Is Up?

"Out of the 150 economists, estate agents and property experts predicting a gathering storm his was the lone voice decreeing brightness on the horizon." ...............need I say more???

Posted by bystander @ 08:46 PM 4 Comments

Maybe there is something in 2012 after all...

NewsMonster: Britains's Biggest Banks use astrology to play the markets

At the moment, he says. Mars in Cancer is in opposition to Pluto in Capricorn. This indicates a polarisation of opposing sentiments turmoil, in other words. This cycle ends around 6th April. Sentiment will then recover and will turn down in early August. That phase will last for 4-5 weeks. There will be another shake in October. We have an interesting four years ahead of us.

Posted by afrobaggie @ 08:24 PM 4 Comments

U.K. Home Prices Drop

Bloomberg: U.K. Rightmove Home Prices Drop on Dearth of Credit (Update2)

Some choices cuts, for the bears amongst us! A lack of home loans is likely to push house prices down further, Bank of England Chief Economist(WELL WELL BLOW ME DOWN) Annual house-price inflation in the U.K. slowed to 1.3 percent, the lowest since July 2005(SO FAR)! RICS said last week that price declines are the most widespread since their survey started in 1978.(BUT IT IS NOT CHRISTMAS YET) In the northwest of England, prices dropped 1.4 percent. The next-biggest decline was in London, where all but five of 32 districts fell in April(BUT I THOUGHT LONDON WAS TOO GOOD FOR SUCH INFERIOR THINGS AS HP DEFLATION). It's pretty bad out there said one EA(GOOD I HOPE IT GETS A LOT WORSE!!!) Credit costs have surged in Britain since money markets froze up last year(TWO WORDS-GREEDY BA#ST~RDS)!!!

Posted by i-cld-murder-a-blt @ 08:10 PM 4 Comments

Cost of Living Starts to Hit

M&G investments: Households behind on energy payments

Almost seven million households are in debt to their energy suppliers, new research suggests. Just over a quarter of customers (26%), or 6.8 million, owe an average of 114 to their supplier, a survey for price comparison service uSwitch.com found. Figures from regulator Ofgem show two million customers are in debt repayment programmes to energy companies, while Citizens Advice has reported that energy debt cases have risen by a third. Just a bit of news to round off the day.

Posted by plato @ 07:46 PM 9 Comments

Let the govt take over your mortgage

BBC: 'Sale and rent' aid plan on homes

People in Wales struggling to pay their mortgages will be given official help to stay in their homes by the Welsh Assembly Government. It will enable housing authorities to buy properties and rent them back to the previous owner for a "reasonable" sum. Until now, only private companies could run "sale and rent back" schemes

Posted by little professor @ 06:39 PM 7 Comments

could this lower property prices and rents???

guardian: Poland tries to lure back UK emigrants

The Polish government is planning a massive advertising campaign in the UK media calling for emigrant Poles to return to their homeland. Polish government officials are planning the UK media ad campaign as they bid to lure back the estimated 1 million Poles who have left for the UK since the country joined the EU in 2004, according to today's edition of Polish daily newspaper Polska

Posted by waitingtobuy @ 06:33 PM 2 Comments

This looks like taxpayer bailout!

BBC: Homeowners to get 'mortgage help'

Homeowners will have enough support to ensure that their homes are not repossessed, the government says. The comments came after key mortgage industry figures met Chancellor Alistair Darling and Housing Minister Caroline Flint at 11 Downing Street.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 06:28 PM 32 Comments

High oil prices don't cause long term inflation!


The adobe document is a speech by Timothy Besley of the MPC to the Canadians. It's a bit beyond me. I got bored at the point where they said high oil prices don't cause long term inflation! There are some other good points such as how they expect inflation to come down as the effect of increasing energy costs sort of vanish from CPI!. Anybody else want to read this and put up a sensible comment?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:40 PM 11 Comments

What What What

BBC: Homeowners to get 'mortgage help'

Chancellor Alistair Darling he's brilliant aint he.....

Posted by mattormsby @ 05:35 PM 0 Comments

Mr Blanchflower, do you hear me???

Yahoo France: BCE could increase interest rates if necessary

The Banque de France Governor declared that the BCE could adjust rates to make sure that inflation gets below 2% in 2009. Luxemburg declared that the central bankers should ask themselves each month if an increase in rates could be justified. "Nobody in BCE is talking anymore about a decrease in interest rates" said an anonymous source in the BCE". Look down the drain! What is it??? A 20 note... The era of cheap stuff comming from abroad might be over for some times here... Sad. Haven't heard Blanchflower crying for rates cuts for a few days... I start to feel concerned about his health. Anybody heard from him? At least that will help to bring back the theory of foreigners buying properties in the UK to justify the supposed gap between demand and supply.

Posted by olivier @ 05:25 PM 0 Comments

A state of panic has taken over the oil markets, analysts say

BBC: Oil hits $118 for the first time

Oil prices have touched fresh highs as traders bet that violence in key producing nations would hurt supply. US light, sweet crude rose 57 cents to cross $118 a barrel, before dropping back to $117.77, while Brent crude peaked at $115 a barrel. The rises were supported by fears of further attacks on pipelines in Nigeria and oil cartel Opec's refusal to raise quotas to curb rising prices. Comments that it will raise production in 2012 failed to dampen sentiment.

Posted by jack c @ 04:43 PM 18 Comments

The bond markets seem to be pricing fixed income investments as if the economy were facing Armageddon

fundstrategy: Judgement day

The economy is facing Armageddon. This is what the prices of corporate bonds are telling investors. The spreads on investment grade bonds are pricing in default rates that are four times as high as the previous peak since 1970. This should not be surprising. The corporate bond market has been battered by the credit crunch over the past 10 months. Liquidity has dried up and forced sellers have driven spreads wider.

Posted by jack c @ 04:25 PM 0 Comments

UK economy and Sterling to come under more pressure

fundstrategy: Managers display deep pessimism over British economy

Global fund managers are taking an aggressively underweight position in British equities, according to the latest monthly survey from Merrill Lynch. It is not clear to what extent the extreme pessimism on the British outlook is motivated by concerns over economic growth and to what extent worries about sterling are responsible.Managers seem to have an extreme dislike of sterling. It has already fallen more than 13% against the euro over the past six months - comparable to the drop against the Deutschmark when Britain was forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992. It has also fallen 17% against the yen over the same period. Despite these falls, a net 52% of managers still say that sterling is overvalued.

Posted by jack c @ 04:12 PM 3 Comments

Copper prices going up?

reuters: UPDATE 2-Chile Codelco losing $10 mln a day due copper strike

more inflation, this time it will affect cables, ipods, washing machines and other items that use copper in the manufacture....... expect these to be taken out of cpi next...lol

Posted by mark @ 03:58 PM 3 Comments

Many problems with mortgage bailouts

CNN: Many problems with mortgage bailouts

There are calls for the government to help homeowners at risk of foreclosure. But some experts think a mortgage rescue could cause more problems than it solves. Robert Shiller, a Yale economist who has long argued there was a bubble in home prices, thinks the plan will do little to stop the slide in housing prices. The runup earlier this decade, fed by low interest rates from the Federal Reserve and lax underwriting standards by lenders, created a bubble that hasn't yet completely deflated.

Posted by mark @ 03:44 PM 0 Comments

US open: Markets assaulted by bad news

Yahoo: US open: Markets assaulted by bad news

The day had got off to a dreary start with news that Carlyle Capital, a fund run by private-equity firm Carlyle Group, was on the point of complete collapse after it defaulted on about $16.6bn in loans. It (Frankfurt: A0MLX5 - news) sparked fears that CCC's creditors might dump their holding onto the market, weakening it even further.

Posted by mark @ 03:42 PM 0 Comments

Summer of Strikes starting Thursday

BBC: Week of strikes

Three strikes in a week as refuse workers, teachers and oil refinery staff all plan to walk out.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 03:33 PM 12 Comments

Market snapshot

Times Online: UK mortgage market by numbers

50,000 repos expected this year ... 3m people to remortgage this year ... 30-50% rise in monthly remortgage payments this year ... 721 mortgages withdrawn in last 2 weeks ... 6.04% average best buy 2 year fix

Posted by necko @ 03:08 PM 0 Comments

European lenders fear UK, Ireland and France will be worst hit by property devaluation

Property Week: Europes banks 'most cautious' on property in UK, Ireland and France

European banks are 'most cautious' about lending in property markets in the UK, Ireland and France. Saying they could be hit more than other European countriesby a fall in property prices.

Posted by iain oneil @ 02:53 PM 0 Comments

Can Ben Bernanke stop the credit crunch?

MoneyWeek: Can Ben Bernanke stop the credit crunch?

Lesson for the BoE? As long as Ben Bernanke tries to follow Milton Friedman's ideas on injecting liquidity, he risks destroying not only his own reputation, but the economy as well...

Posted by damien @ 02:36 PM 0 Comments

Short back and sides, Sir?

Guardian: King's saved the banks but will he save homebuyers?

Banks will rebuild their profits. They say mortgage costs set to remain high for some time.

Posted by letthemfall @ 01:27 PM 3 Comments

Shakira and PM in harmony

MSN: We are saved - Thank You GB

I know this is off topic but made me laugh. Well ..says it all really. Last one out of Britain turn the light out! What about a song ' these lips don't lie'! Of course Brown when he was given power said no more SPIN ... Then Shakira was asked if she feared she was being "used" by politicians like Mr Brown to boost his popularity, and she leapt to his defence. "Absolutely not," she said. "I think he is a man with wonderful intentions and who is also very pro-active and who has been working very hard for this issue of education

Posted by waitingfor hpc @ 01:05 PM 1 Comments

Bank of Englands clever swap shop

Financial Times: Bank of Englands clever swap shop

There's a lot of misinformed nonsense being talked in the press about the SLS. A lot of it is being regurgitated on here by people all too keen to jump on the Bank. This FT editorial is a good summary of what it actually does... clue... it's not what Alistair Darling would like it to be.

Posted by james @ 12:11 PM 0 Comments

They're doomed...

BBC News: Arrears up at Bradford & Bingley

"More than half of the bank's home loans have been made to buy-to-let landlords. " Say no more..

Posted by uncle tom @ 11:58 AM 22 Comments

Very True..........................

The Times and The Sunday Times: 50bn bailout: blame the Government

It's governments, not careless bankers, who got us into this mess. Those who caused our problems owe it to us to try to get us out.

Posted by sold up just in time @ 11:45 AM 0 Comments

Ooh boy!

Reuters: Florida luxury home market shows signs of wear

The surprisingly healthy market for oceanfront mansions and palatial condos in Florida, one of the most toxic states in America's housing meltdown, may finally be showing some cracks. While many luxury properties are selling briskly thanks to Europeans and Canadians pouring their strong currencies into Florida, billionaire Donald Trump recently dropped the price on a Palm Beach mansion by 20 percent, and some market watchers say the U.S. housing woes have finally touched the wealthy.

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:02 AM 0 Comments

Do Not Hit Link But Look At This!

BANK OF ENGLAND: I sent a complaint yesterday - and got a reply!!!

See first comment for reply!

Posted by waitingfor hpc @ 10:52 AM 45 Comments

Bradford & Bingley in the doo-doo (part 2)

Citywire: Virgin bid speculation steadies Bradford & Bingley

The market is rife with rumours that Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group is preparing a bid for Bradford & Bingley (B&B). The rumours enabled the bank to trade flat in a market where most bank shares were falling fast in the wake of Royal Bank of Scotland's rights issue. The rumours come as the bank announces that margins are under pressure as a result of the credit crisis, as well as revealing further losses in its structured finance portfolio. It did however demonstrate that it has grown its deposit base throughout the problems.

Posted by jack c @ 10:51 AM 3 Comments

Why 50bn isnt enough to make banks cut mortgage rates

MoneyWeek: Why 50bn isnt enough to make banks cut mortgage rates

Despite the 50bn injection, banks are not there to help prop up the housing market. It doesnt matter how much money the government tries to force through the system - mortgage rates won't be coming down anytime soon.

Posted by damien @ 10:48 AM 1 Comments

Abandon Ship

Debts hitting hard as so many pay for excesses of past years

Firstrung: Wannabe middle class aspirants living on working class wages

We're all middle class now... or so we thought. How many Brits who classify themselves as middle class are actually working class by financial standing..? 15 million wannabe middle class Brits are in denial of their true working class status, and instead are turning to debt to finance their lifestyles. In their attempt to keep up with the 'upper middle class', middle class wannabes are supplementing their income with a combination of secured and unsecured loans totalling nearly 35 billion.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:30 AM 3 Comments

Buy to let mortgage lending officially died yesterday

Firstrung: Buy to let mortgage lending officially dead as Abbey calls time on industry

Abbey has finally withdrawn from the buy-to-let market in order to focus only on residential business. The lender says it is part of a re-organisation in order to keep rates in line with market moves...A release from the lender says the current residential range will be withdrawn at 10pm on April 21. Full applications must be submitted by this time in order to secure a booking on the product.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:28 AM 6 Comments

The 50bn+ is to avoid depression, not to save housing

Bloomberg: BOE Has 'Slim' Chance of Helping Loans, Goodhart Says

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King's offer to swap bonds for mortgage securities won't fulfill the government's promise to help homebuyers, former policy maker Charles Goodhart said. ``The likelihood of getting the mortgage market going again is slim,'' said Goodhart, a founding member of the Monetary Policy Committee and now a professor at the London School of Economics, in a telephone interview yesterday. ``This just prevents things from getting worse. It's a backstop.''

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 10:25 AM 2 Comments

Bradford & Bingley in the doo-doo

FT Alphaville: Bad news, BTL demand remains strong

B&B is the market leader in Buy-to-Let mortgages which offer customers 100-1000% gearing into a declining asset class where none of the risks of leverage have been explained. BTL also offers investors a huge negative carry trade with average net property yields in the UK being 3.75% and mortgage finance now coming at almost double that. Self Certified mortgages (liar loans as the Americans appropriately call them) where B&B takes no income verification at all are at best going to see the income of the borrower be at its weakest when the collateral value is at its weakest as overtime and bonuses diminish with a weakening economy.

Posted by little professor @ 10:24 AM 3 Comments

So, there'll be no need for new capital for Barclays then...

IHT: Jan 23 2008: Barclays says no real change in exposures

Barclays said on Wednesday that if problems linked to its exposure to the credit market crisis had materially changed since an update two months ago, it would have announced them. Barclays made a 1.3 billion pound writedown for losses on securities linked to the U.S. subprime housing crisis on November 15 and outlined its remaining exposures in the collateralised debt obligations market and other areas. "If there was anything materially different from then we'd have to make a report," Bob Diamond, president of Barclays and head of its investment bank arm, told CNBC television.

Posted by lvmreader @ 10:17 AM 4 Comments

Are the home builders going bust?

Share prices (BBC): Market data

Check out some of the share prices for the big home builders - Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Barratt etc. Mostly these guys share prices are down by around two thirds over the last year, yet the median view taken by the City for house prices is still for no more than a modest fall. Can these guys weather a house price fall of more than 20%? I have my doubts..

Posted by uncle tom @ 10:16 AM 5 Comments

Gilts market may be hit by bank bail-out - Ya think?!

Telegraph: Goldman Sachs warns on gilt market after BoE's bail-out

Goldman Sachs has advised clients to take out "short" positions on British 30-year Gilts before a rash of new issues by the Government floods the bond market. The closely watched US investment bank said it was concerned about the "heavy supply of longer-dated paper" likely to weigh on the price of British sovereign debt. The bank has closed its "short" positions on the pound after raking in bumper profits on the precipitous slide in sterling since the Northern Rock debacle. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Gilt surged from 4.43pc to 4.71pc last week, one of the sharpest moves in recent years. They are now 67 basis points above German Bunds, and 88 basis points above US Treasuries.

Posted by lvmreader @ 10:05 AM 4 Comments

Shareholder bail out now required to complimemt BOE bailouts

Times: Mervyn King: RBS 'will be first of many banks to make cash call'

More British banks are poised to tap shareholders for billions of pounds in emergency capital, Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, revealed yesterday. As Royal Bank of Scotland put the finishing touches to a 12 billion rights issue, expected to be announced today, Mr King hinted strongly that RBS would be the first of many. Im pleased that banks have recognised the need to raise capital. I expect we will see more of it in the coming weeks, he said as he announced details of the Banks plan to loosen the paralysed money markets with a 50 billion injection of fresh liquidity.

Posted by jack c @ 09:40 AM 5 Comments

RBS unveils the largest rights issue in Europe.

FT: RBS unveils record 12bn rights issue

RBS today unveiled emergency plans to repair the damage the credit crisis has wrought on its balance sheet by raising 12bn from shareholders and 4bn by selling assets, including its insurance arm.Unveiling the largest rights issue in Europe, RBS said it had ditched its strategy of operating a more thinly capitalised balance sheet than rivals.

Posted by jack c @ 09:36 AM 0 Comments

CAB and Shelter may talk the talk but they wont offer you a home when you are repossessed and evicted

stop repossessions: Does Alistair Darling Want You To Be Repossessed?

Maybe the Government, along with the usual middle class do gooders at the Citizens Advice Bureau (CAB) and Shelter actually want you to be repossessed and lose your home? Surely, that cant be right?

Posted by malct @ 09:12 AM 8 Comments

Paul (who is still in the GOP race) is the only pro-freedom, anti-war, anti-corporatist, anti-income tax, anti-Federal Reserve candidate in the race

321GOLD: Why the Public Can't Think Straight

I am sometimes asked if I see a turnaround in the near future; have the stock and housing markets hit bottom yet, have the many financial crises shown signs of easing, will prices for oil and food and metals and other commodities soon return to the drastically more affordable levels they were at only recently. My answer is "not likely." Furthermore, the trend of government interference to "help" with such problems is reliably making them worse and creating new problems,

Posted by malct @ 08:56 AM 2 Comments

Loving the bubble......

BBC News: Bank move has an immediate effect - 0.1% from Abbey

''...The Bank of England's plan to ease the credit squeeze has had an immediate impact with one of the UK's largest lenders cutting rates on some deals. ...''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:52 AM 8 Comments

Going begging again

BBC: Lenders to discuss mortgage woes

Chancellor Alistair Darling and Housing Minister Caroline Flint are to meet mortgage lenders later today to urge them to do more to help struggling borrowers. Mr Darling will ask the industry to find ways to prevent those in trouble from having their homes repossessed. It follows his backing of a 50bn Bank of England plan to allow banks to swap mortgage debts for government bonds.

Posted by little professor @ 08:18 AM 17 Comments

House Price Inflation shrunk my Pay Packet

BBC: Four in ten staff 'may quit job'

Surprise surprise, 25% increase in pay coupled with a 200% increase in house prices over the last few years and hey presto ... a demotivated workforce. "More than four in ten UK employees are considering quitting their job in the next year, YouGov research for Investors in People suggests. A lack of motivation at work is cited as a major problem, with unreasonable workloads, feeling underpaid and a lack of career path being blamed. "

Posted by voiceofreason @ 08:15 AM 7 Comments

"It is pretty small beer," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist for the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

BBC: Darling backs 50bn bank bailout

Bail-out? The BBC's business editor Robert Peston said the primary purpose of the scheme was to prevent another Northern Rock, not to try and bring down mortgage rates. "Or to put it another way, taxpayer support is being provided to minimise the risk of huge future losses for taxpayers from another banking collapse."

Posted by malct @ 08:11 AM 6 Comments

Bailout means banks will not come clean

independent: Vincent Cable: Don't be fooled... the banks aren't victims of bad luck

The Government's deference and indulgence to the banks is extraordinary. ... bank executives fear asking their shareholders for money rights issues since they risk being sacked. It is easier to rattle a begging bowl in Whitehall and ask the Government for the money. They have. If there is to be any departure from the traditional terms on which the Bank of England lends to the banks there must also be tough, binding, explicit conditions not vague assurances.

Posted by mken @ 08:09 AM 2 Comments

How Surprising

Daily Telegraph: Mortgage costs unlikely to come down despite Bank of England's 50 billion bail-out

Mortgage costs are highly unlikely to fall despite an unprecedented 50 billion emergency bail-out for Britain's banks and building societies, homeowners have been warned. This will be exacerbated by GB/AD asking the lenders to be soft on those who fall behind. This will cost the lenders and that extra cost will need to be soaked up from everyone else.

Posted by renting2 @ 07:37 AM 4 Comments

surprise surprise


surprising outcome then...not!

Posted by fun 4 now @ 07:15 AM 2 Comments

Police looking for 15% pay rise!

BBC News: Original News Article

Of all the cheek! Someone needs to let them know that inflation is only running at around 15% The public servants need to be setting an example, eh Gordo!

Posted by flintster @ 06:52 AM 0 Comments

not the last , i am sure

the guardian: Abbey raises rates after Bank's 50bn bail-out

abbey raises it rate...bailout?

Posted by fun 4 now @ 06:51 AM 5 Comments

Financial strain increasing......

BBC News: Olympic cost plans 'unrealistic'

''....The government was "entirely unrealistic" in estimating the cost of hosting the 2012 Olympics, a group of MPs have said. At the time of the bid, costs were estimated at just over 4bn, but last year the budget was put at 9.325bn.....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:12 AM 3 Comments

Inflation and the spectre of negative seigniorage

Ludwig Von Mises Institute: Two Cents on the Penny (That Are Now Worth Almost Four)

The cost of producing a penny is now 1.7 cents it costs nearly two pennies to make one. Why is the price of zinc going up? Has there been some dramatic shift in the mining industry or a sudden catastrophe? No, because in comparison to many other of the world's currencies and commodities, the price of zinc has not risen. Instead, it is the falling value of dollars themselves that is causing the price to go up. The greater the supply of a good, the less value each individual unit of that good will have. This is known as the law of marginal utility. Applying this law to money leads to the conclusion that when the mint prints more dollars, the value of existing dollars will decrease, and thus it will take more dollars to purchase metals.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:08 AM 6 Comments

Monday, April 21, 2008

Slippery slope

Reuters: Sterling slides, mortgage plan fails to impress

Sterling fell 1.5 percent against the euro on Monday as soft UK house price data reinforced jitters about the health of the economy and a Bank of England plan to ease credit market strain failed to impress. Annual house price inflation in England and Wales slowed to its weakest level since mid-2005 this month as a survey from property website Rightmove showed.

Posted by alan @ 07:36 PM 0 Comments

great blog

theRatandMouse: various HPC articles.....

Nice topics....but how long before it is getting the blame for negative sentiment from Krusty....the same as HPC?

Posted by rental john @ 07:35 PM 1 Comments

Slightly old article - but worth a second read....

Telegraph online: Can we blame it all on Kirstie Allsopp?

......Why not....Rent it out.....Do it up and sell it for a profit. What could possibly go wrong? I wonder what else Ms Moir can see in her crystal ball....?

Posted by rental john @ 06:59 PM 2 Comments

The truth behind the trade off?

The Times Online: Mervyn King predicts more banks will raise capital

Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, said today that more UK banks would follow Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in raising fresh equity as he unveiled details of his plan to inject 50 billion of liquidity into the paralysed banking system. Mr King hailed the new bonds-for-mortgages scheme as the best way of improving liquidity in the banking system and restoring confidence and insisted that it was not a bailout. He said: "This is not a bailout for banks. The objective is not to protect the banks. It is to protect the public from the banks." Yeh - right!

Posted by rental john @ 06:44 PM 1 Comments

It's going to be long long summer....

The Times Online: Sellers forced to drop asking prices on homes

Annual house price inflation in England and Wales has slowed to its lowest level since mid-2005 as April suffered its first month-on-month fall in asking prices in six years. According to figures by Rightmove, the property website, the annual rate of asking-price increases slowed to 1.3 per cent in April, down from 5 per cent in March, as the impact of the credit crunch on mortgage availability continued to bite. The average asking price in April fell by 0.1 per cent on March to 239,521. This signalled the first decline in April, typically a strong month for property sales, since 2002 and compares with a 0.8 per cent month-on-month rise in March. ***the trickle before the flood?***

Posted by rental john @ 06:40 PM 0 Comments

You would have thought these guys were smart! Guess NOT!

The Times Online: UBS admits list of errors before key meeting

UBS this morning detailed a catalogue of failures that contributed to a $37.4 billion (18.8 billion) writedown, including the rushed set-up of its hedge fund business, overaggressive growth plans and a lack of risk management. Guess there will be more of the same as more and more European and Asia banks come clean....watch this space.

Posted by rental john @ 06:31 PM 0 Comments

What a naughty boy

CityWire: First vulture fund circles home repossession market

About 100 million in City funding is being sought to back the launch of the UKs first vulture fund to specialise in repossessed residential property. Property group Assetz is negotiating with property fund managers to back the scheme, and was sourcing repossessed properties at a rate of around 200 a month through bridging finance specialists, private clients and other agencies, said chief executive Stuart Law. Distressed sub-prime sellers unable to re-finance were emerging across all property types he said, with the typical purchasing price around 15% to 20% below recent market value.

Posted by little professor @ 05:33 PM 18 Comments

But, but, strong economy, sound fundaments, full employment!

The Times: Big companies set to fight global crisis with job cuts

Britains top 350 companies plan to cut spending and jobs and to dispose of assets as they struggle to cope with the credit crisis, but only a few are considering cutting dividends, according to a survey by Deloitte, the accounting firm

Posted by cheekie charlie @ 05:26 PM 0 Comments

The goddess of BTL is a con artist

ThisIsMoney: The truth about 'broke' Rosie Millard

She published columns in the Times propping up BTL because of her huge vested interests. " A 900,000 Grade-II* listed Georgian home in one of Islington's most exclusive residential squares. A 600,000 four- bedroom Victorian house in Hackney. Two buytolet loft-style apartments near Liverpool Street worth a total of about 600,000" AH AHHAHAHHAH HAH Islington and the City... these will be the areas worst affected by the crash!!!

Posted by confused76 @ 04:51 PM 12 Comments

End of Rosie's BTL empire dreams

ThisIsMoney: Former BBC presenter's 40,000 debt

Rosie Millard was living like a millionairess - without the money to pay the bills. 'Cheques bounced daily'.

Posted by confused76 @ 04:41 PM 10 Comments

In the words of Confused76....MUAHAHAHAHA

Times Online: Abbey pulls out of buy-to-let mortgages

''...Abbey has stopped selling buy-to-let mortgages to landlords, blaming "recent market moves" for a raft of measures announced today that will also penalise some residential borrowers. ...''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:25 PM 29 Comments

The markets are detecting the Fed's inflation policy

Market Oracle: Fed Interest Rate Cut Could Spark Bond Market Panic Selling

"When the Fed and Washington radically altered the rules of U.S. finance last month, they placed in jeopardy huge positions that had been put in place to hedge against and profit from systemic crisis. With the end of "Stage one" arises a major short squeeze in the Credit, equities, and derivatives markets. And when it comes to contemplating the scope and ramifications of today's "hedging" activities, we're clearly in Uncharted Waters. It is not beyond reason that a disorderly unwind of "bearish" Credit market positions could incite a mini bout of liquidity, speculation, and Credit excess that exacerbates Global Monetary Instability - while Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two of the Crisis."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:09 PM 3 Comments

Enough already! (as they say in New York)

Bloomberg: Carlyle, Deutsche Bank Seek to Raise $500 Million CLO

Carlyle Group, the world's second largest private-equity firm, is raising a $500 million collateralized loan obligation to buy high-risk, high-yield debt being sold by banks at discounted prices, according to people with knowledge of the plan.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 04:04 PM 1 Comments

Government believes it is necessary to protect itself from the prospect that house prices could fall by up to 30%

Citywire: Bank of England 50bn bail-out leaves lenders exposed to housing crash

The Government's plan to restore liquidity to the banking system marks a 50 billion intervention into financial markets but aims to minimise taxpayer risk. The nature of the scheme shows that the Government is seeking to insulate itself from the risk of the housing market falling by between 10 and 30%.

Posted by lukeskywalker @ 04:02 PM 3 Comments

Interesting view from Citywire editor on BOE intervention

Citywire: Bank of England 50bn bail-out leaves lenders exposed to housing crash

The Government's plan to restore liquidity to the banking system marks a 50 billion intervention into financial markets but aims to minimise taxpayer risk. The nature of the scheme shows that the Government is seeking to insulate itself from the risk of the housing market falling by between 10 and 30%.

Posted by jack c @ 03:50 PM 0 Comments

Good explanation for us simple HPC folks

Youtube: House Prices Fall Worldwide

Hello. I'm Bernard Hickey with the daily briefing from interest.co.nz...youtube item...

Posted by rental john @ 03:47 PM 0 Comments

Tulips From Amsterdam-just Replace Tuilps With Houses

investopedia: tulips from amsterdam

scary how similar all bubbles are and how they all end...not with government bail outs normally!

Posted by taffee @ 03:44 PM 1 Comments

To bail out a $681 trillion derivative scheme with taxpayer money is obviously impossible.


When the smartest guys in the room designed their credit default swaps, they forgot to ask one thing what if the parties on the other side of the bet don't have the money to pay up? In December 2007, the Bank for International Settlements reported derivative trades tallying in at $681 trillion ten times the gross domestic product of all the countries in the world combined. Somebody is obviously bluffing about the money being brought to the game, and that realization has made for some very jittery markets. To bail out a $681 trillion derivative scheme with taxpayer money is obviously impossible. As Michael Panzer observed on SeekingAlpha.com: As the slow-motion train wreck in our financial system continues to unfold, there are going to be plenty of ill-conceived rescue attempts.

Posted by malct @ 03:44 PM 12 Comments

Stuatz comedy club comments at their all time best

ifaonline: House prices will recover this year - Assetz

House prices are falling on a monthly basis but the Special Liquidity Regime, announced today by the Bank of England, will bring the market back to normal by September, according to Assetz. It is now an excellent time to grab a bargain before the summer, when finances are likely to start to improve, increasing demand across the board and driving prices upwards again.

Posted by jack c @ 03:28 PM 17 Comments

Bank of America misses forecasts

CNN: Bank of America misses forecasts

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) saw net income plunge to $1.21 billion, or 23 cents a share, from $5.26 billion, or $1.16 a share, in the year earlier period.

Posted by mark @ 12:50 PM 0 Comments

Extra funding will not re-inflate the housing bubble

MoneyWeek: Can Alistair Darling save the housing market?

Alistair Darling, who clearly missed his true calling as a plumber, wants to 'unbung' the British banking system. I suppose you could call it money down the drain

Posted by damien @ 12:12 PM 37 Comments

at least 100 billion for it to really actually make a difference to the solvency position of banks,

Bloomberg: Buiter Says U.K. Banks Need $200 Billion Aid From Bank of England

``The mortgage market has to shrink,'' Buiter said. ``We've had an unsustainable housing boom. If we get 50 billion pounds of net mortgage lending this year, that would be ample to sustain mortgage financing at a reasonable level.'' more here: http://www.sott.net/articles/show/154071-Buiter-Says-U-K-Banks-Need-200-Billion-Aid-From-Bank-of-England

Posted by malct @ 12:01 PM 3 Comments

Good News is Bad News

BBCNEWS: Worried shoppers 'turn to cash'

Worried shoppers are increasingly spending with cash instead of credit cards, a survey by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has suggested. A survey of 17,000 shops found cash was used for 60% of transactions last year - up from 54% in 2006 - and accounted for about a third of all money spent. The BRC said it showed a reluctance by people trying to control their finances to spend money they did not have. Director general Stephen Robertson said cash was "alive and thriving". Another reason to remove cash from citizens?

Posted by plato @ 11:52 AM 13 Comments

Its not just Mortages, Credit Cards loans can be swapped as well.

BBC: Banks' big bailout

Scroll down a little for Peston's update at 10:40, the comments in Peston's recent articles covering the bail out say it all really. This hasnt gone down well with the public. Riot anyone!

Posted by geed @ 11:42 AM 12 Comments

Scrap the Green Belts and sack the Planners

Audacity - Let's Build: Forget Eco-towns - Let's follow the example of Britain's Gypsies

Green Belts have stopped the proper growth of housing, or so it seems. The Planners and those bods in City Hall are just so out of touch with what "normal" pepole want, even the Gypsies are getting in on the Act. However it may not be the traditional Romanies, more like the Free-Spirits of the 60's getting older and wanting to settle down. "Since the 1969 Skeffington Report planning decisions also rest heavily on local views - giving "not in my back yard"-ers a veto on new homes. " etc.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 11:20 AM 3 Comments

Chasing their losses......

Daily Mail: 50billion taxpayer funded bail-out for banks could be doubled

''...The City was holdings its breath today to see if the dramatic 50billion cash injection to the banks is enough. There was speculation it could be doubled to an eye-watering 100billion if necessary to stave off a collapse in the housing market....'' Make no mistake, the cost of housing has become EVERYTHING to this government. Nothing else matters.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:15 AM 1 Comments

Letter from Bootle

Telegraph: The credit crunch and how to ease then end it

Summarises some of the points we have discussed here. Bootle advises that low interest rates are the solution rather than the current bailout. He optimistically assumes that inflation will stay in check. Well, he did write "The Death of Inflation". Plenty of the comments disagree. We are at an interesting point - if interesting is not too euphemistic.

Posted by letthemfall @ 10:51 AM 6 Comments

From the horse's mouth..

Bank of England: Special Liquidity Scheme

Forget the Janet and John stuff at the beginning that the rest of the press is reporting, and check out the pdf link to the Market Notice. Note the prohibition of 'synthetic' securities - is this the real problem in the banking system? But also note that US mortgage backed securites are NOT excluded...

Posted by uncle tom @ 10:03 AM 17 Comments

"Could"? "Could"?

Rightmove: April house price index

Scroll down to the chart at the bottom of page one, which shows BoE interest rate changes. Priceless. I also like this statement "Lack of confidence amongst banks in the credit worthiness of each other could create a 'correction overshoot'". They're banks, for crying out loud, if they don't trust each other, why should the taxpayer?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 09:55 AM 6 Comments

Fake Ferraris

CNN: Fake Ferraris

Off topic...but interesting Fake Ferraris In Italy, a group of rogue mechanics made Toyotas and Pontiacs look like Ferraris. what next? lol

Posted by mark @ 09:23 AM 4 Comments

The trillion-dollar mortgage time bomb

CNN: The trillion-dollar mortgage time bomb

how will this affect the UK?

Posted by mark @ 09:16 AM 2 Comments

It begins

The Oil Drum: Europe: Grangemouth: Calm urged over potential refinery shutdown

Friends are amused at my collection of retro clothing and joke that I should be transported to the 1970's. I say that I'm just anticipating the inevitable and that we are already here. This could send us to a three day working week if it cascades down and Unions start doing their job, standing up for workers in the face of rising prices and rampant money printing to protect wealthy b(w)ankers at the expense of the working man. Prices will finally be allowed to go through the roof and the Unions will be blamed. The refinery produces about 10% of our fuel, and we only have about 70days of stored fuel, particularly after the explosion at Bouncefield rendered one of England's largest fuel stores inoperable. Is that part of the plan?

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:01 AM 2 Comments

More pain to come

Guardian: Forecasting group warns of pain for UK economy

The British economy is facing two years of sluggish growth in the wake of the global credit crunch unless the government takes decisive action, according to the Ernst & Young Item Club. The economic forecasting group describes the outlook for the housing market and the high street as "bleak" and about to get "a whole lot worse", Although the economy has remained relatively buoyant so far this year, our reliance upon international banking markets means it is only a matter of time before it slows, This is going to be a rapid, painful adjustment and it will mean a rough ride for a substantial proportion of the population.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:56 AM 14 Comments

The risk of negative equity means now is a good time to rent

Guardian: Is now a good time to rent?

Morgan Stanley reckons that 1.2 million families could be plunged into negative equity in the next two years as house prices fall by as much as 25%. If you're in Glasgow, Manchester, south-east London or Birmingham, you're more likely to be among the 75,000 households Experian predict will go into negative equity this year. The Abbey suggests that if house prices are about to fall, while interest rates remain high against inflation, it might be financially astute to rent short term. Meanwhile, rents are soaring, according to Paragon Mortgages' BTL index for March. Great for landlords (average rental income in February rose 5.2% over the past quarter), but glum for new tenants (rents went up 15% over the year and the trend is upwards). Uhm rents up 5.2% but IR up a lot more!!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:50 AM 10 Comments

Is the Halifax Building Society in trouble.

The Times: From The Sunday TimesApril 20, 2008

I just rang the Halifax as I had to pay my company insurance. The system was down. When they spoke again they said that their systems had changed. I basically had to do an electronic transfer which I do all the time. It used to be immediate but now it appears that I have to wait two days for the money to leave my account and this is for everyone in the Halifax. I asked them for some evidence that I rang them as it was an important transfer and they would not guarantee that. They just said that although I rang at the weekend they would not start the payment till Tuesday. Could this be a cash flow problem Why would they just change something that had been in place for the last 30 years. Its like they need to check what is going out for some reason??

Posted by sasa1502 @ 01:07 AM 8 Comments

Rightmove: -0.1% MoM, +1.3%YoY

Guardian: UK house price growth slows to 3-yr low

Annual house price inflation in England and Wales slowed to its weakest level since mid-2005 this month as April suffered its first month-on-month fall in asking prices in six years, a survey showed on Monday. April usually sees a rise of around 2.8% The annual rate of asking price increases slowed to 1.3% in April from 5% in March, Rightmove said. On the month, prices were 0.1% lower. Last month, Rightmove reported that asking prices rose by 0.8%.

Posted by little professor @ 12:21 AM 2 Comments

Peston's view

BBC: Mervyn bends - and how!

The Bank of England will on Monday morning perform what some will see as one of the greatest u-turns in its 300 year history. Having been far more conservative than the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in the way that it provides financial support to banks, it will announce what may be the world's most ambitious and generous plan to pump money into the banking system. The Bank of England will offer banks the opportunity to swap their mortgages for rock-solid Government securities. When the dust settles, the proposal will spark controversy.

Posted by little professor @ 12:05 AM 14 Comments

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Nero fiddling, Rome burns...when will the plebeians revolt?

Firstrung: Sing along with the common people, sing along and it might just get you through

One of the benefits of having your own bit of internet 'space' to occasionally fill is that when something grates you can use that space as a cathartic release in order to lance your nagging grievances. Wordsmiths and "sophistication" (in the true sense of the word) go hand in hand. Naturally when you're involved in journalism, at any level, you begin to quickly identify how cleverly politicians in elevated positions use their sophisticated power of words in order to implant ideas and reinforce their beliefs. Neuro-linguistic programming is a fascinating subject and one that couldn't possibly be done justice in the small space of this blog. 'The Power of Words' in order to manipulate thinking and control behaviour is an art politicians have practised and perfected since ancient times. m

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:22 PM 7 Comments

A way to make money on our predictions?

Intrade: Prediction Markets Site

Intrade, is The Prediction Market where you can buy and sell "shares" in financial, political, weather and other important subjects. Incorporated in Ireland, Intrade has been featured on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Fox, Fortune & others. Copyright 2007, all rights reserved.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:47 PM 0 Comments

Join Your Union!

Ludwig Von Mises Institute: Can Unions Cause Price Inflation?

This article argues that unions can only have a short term affect on some prices, that in reality, central banks cause inflation by printing money, as seen with bank bail outs & recent irresponsible lending. Turn it on its head, & you realise that Unions stop banks from printing money by fighting against the falling standards of living experienced by its members when banks cause inflation by printing money. They are the working man's last line of defence against the type of lax monetary policy we see today. So, Thatcher destroyed Unions to stop them from getting in the way of the bank's aim to control money supply & print cash at will, for their own benefit & to the perverse result of facilitating a larger debt based state machine. She was protecting state and bank, not economy.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:25 PM 35 Comments

You're saved BMV is here

guardian.co.uk: It's always sunshine and profits at the property show

House prices are falling at their fastest rate for years, chartered surveyors are downbeat about the future, and overseas, property values are tumbling in one-time investment hot spots such as Spain and Florida. But buy-to-let landlords and holiday home purchasers had a chance to forget the gloom last weekend at the Property Investor Show. In the permanent artificial lighting of Birmingham's NEC, the few visitors who turned up were told it was perpetual property sunlight - in Liverpool, Derby, Barnsley and Scunthorpe, as well as more exotic locations such as Malaysia, Mongolia and Peru. The secret of no-money-down loans lies in three little letters: BMV. Could be a BTL Revival. Is it about to happen all over again?

Posted by plato @ 07:55 PM 9 Comments

Lest we forget.....

Daily Mail: The wheeler-dealer aged 102 takes out a 25-year mortgage

Apologies for posting old news (March '07), but I think it's important to remember just how ridiculous the lending situation had got pre-credit crunch. If Broon/Darling think we're ever going to return to this state of affairs again then they are beyond help. I look forward to seeing the rest of these companies withdraw from the market. Goodbye Preferred Mortgages, we hardly knew ye!

Posted by blister soul @ 06:32 PM 0 Comments

Why U.K. Banks Need $200 Billion Aid From Bank of England

SOTT.net comments on Bloomberg article: Buiter Says U.K. Banks Need $200 Billion Aid From Bank of England

Former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter said the central bank will need to offer loan swaps to financial institutions of at least 100 billion pounds ($200 billion) to kick-start the U.K. mortgage market.-bloomberg. SOTT comments:The UK is about to copy the US and have taxpayers bail out the banks. It's being dressed up as a means of helping the borrowers but the reality is it's a desperate move to keep the banking system propped up.

Posted by cybervigilantes @ 03:59 PM 0 Comments

Why ?

Sunday Times: Alistair Darling plans unprecedented 50bn bank bailout

Alistair Darling is preparing to announce an unprecedented 50bn bailout of Britain's banking system in an effort to save the housing market from collapse.

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:06 PM 36 Comments

That crash word again

Independent: Lenders lock out new borrowers amid fears over housing crash

"This is all about Abbey protecting itself against negative equity," Ray Boulger from broker John Charcol, said. "Higher-value property often falls further than lower-value housing so lenders want borrowers to have more of a buffer in place."

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:03 PM 4 Comments

20 percent drop in Bath

Observer: Snooping around: Homes reduced in price

... and still no takers.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:35 PM 5 Comments

Will this medicine give us "the runs"?

Bloomberg: Bank of England to Detail Swap Plan for Easing Credit

Darling said ``One analogy is someone who has gotten dose of food poisoning and in some aspects that just has to work its way through the system,'' ... ``We can help the process and the Bank of England's measures tomorrow will help the process, which in turn will help the housing market.''

Posted by alan @ 02:28 PM 4 Comments

House prices drop in 6 seconds

BBC: Andrew Marr Show

Classic "... we've been on air 5-6 seconds, and already your house is worth less than when we started"

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:40 PM 5 Comments

Sterling takes a pounding and the slide isn't over yet

MoneyWeek: Sterling takes a pounding and the slide isn't over yet

Sterling has hit an 11-year low against a basket of major trading partners' currencies, and looks set to continue to underperform against the euro and the dollar. Whats more, the direct investment inflows stemming from the boom in M&A activity were a key prop for sterling in recent years, and these have now gone into reverse.

Posted by damien @ 01:29 PM 1 Comments

Would a crash be a bad thing ?

BBC Radio 4 Any Questions ?: Would a housing crash be neccessarily a bad thing ?

The truth is gradually coming out ... 17 mins in. Broadcast on Radio 4 Sat 19 Apr - 13:10 Panellists include Ken Clarke, Frederick Forsyth, Angela Eagle and David Laws.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:11 PM 2 Comments

Peter Hitchens speaks out!!

The Mail on Sunday: Why should we be angry that houses are getting cheaper?

Peter Hitchens is like John Redwood. I can't agree with everything he says, but at least he says what he means.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:53 PM 6 Comments

Insolvency is the real problem

Observer: A warning to the banks

A significant article, highlighting the arrogance of the banks and the Govt's fear of falling house prices. Two revealing quotes: Re US: "It has certainly helped to bring down the spreads between Treasuries and riskier mortgage loans, and begun to calm down the markets, but house prices are still plunging. " 'I think the problem here is that we're still emphasising liquidity problems and are moving to a solvency crisis. You can give banks extra money, but they may still not want to lend.' "

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:13 PM 3 Comments

Further utility price rises possible

Observer: Utilities at risk from debt timebomb

A little off topic, but another example of concealed problems lurking as a result of all the debt. An antidote to the optimism of some economists. Inflation ready to spring.

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:56 AM 8 Comments

You have to laugh or cry about this one


So here we have it, private money printed to fund public private partnership (to pay for schools, railways, you name it) has been used to inflate build costs, in turn justifying a higher tax grab to pay interest on loans from private banks who print money from thin air. Now that the bubble is popped, low & behold the office of ?fair? trading announces that the building trade has operated as a cartel. Is this a smoke screen for the banking cartels who printed the money that made inflated prices possible in the first place? Or have I missed something?! Why "expose" builders now? Is it because the government has benefited from the housing bubble? Only if the government is representing banking interests. No? Then how did Tony Blair bag a ?500k? "job" (pension?) from JP Morgan.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:40 AM 4 Comments

Greed is good for nothing.

Guardian: Now super-rich face a backlash as credit crunch hits home in America

The 'American dream' of unashamed wealth and the opportunity for all to acquire it has reached a crisis point before: in the Depression, the oil shock, in the 'greed is good' Eighties and the madness of the dotcom bubble. But America's relationship with wealth - uncomfortable as it has sometimes been - has always been built on the same foundation. Even as charted in the salutary tales of Fitzgerald, Steinbeck or Wolfe over the decades, or in the endless fascination with Howard Hughes and the fictional Ewings of Dallas, the aspiring masses never quite lost their admiration for blatant enrichment, nor the elite their pride in it. Now, however, all that appears to be changing.

Posted by charlie brooker @ 07:02 AM 0 Comments

Suppliers go bust as Tesco haggles harder

Telegraph: Tesco has food for thought as prices rise

Last year Watts watched helpless as the price of wheat, cardboard, petrol and labour rose. Watts costs rose be 31%. In order to remain sustainable he increased the price he charged customers. Premier Foods, also saw its materials bill rise 19%. Higher demand for wheat and rice in Asia and a poor global harvest are behind the rise. Rising prices have added an estimated 600 to a family's annual grocery bill. UK's supermarkets, where Britons spend 120bn a year are at the end of the food chain meaning that they have a crucial role to play in the pricing crisis. Tesco's suppliers have complained that they have been unable to pass rises on to, resulting in them absorbing the cost and in some cases going bust! In short not a sustainable business model. Expect more increases soon!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:03 AM 10 Comments

House prices to fall 10% this year and 5% next year - Yippeee

Telegraph: House price falls wont send the UK into a recession

Strange thing happens when some people comment on house prices. There is something close to an inversion of the logic that is applied to other economic issues. When food prices go up - this is considered bad news. But when house prices go up, this is considered good news. But in many ways houses and food are similar - they are both necessities that you need to buy for as long as you live. Falling house prices are treated as thought the plague has been spotted. Derivatives contracts priced off the Halifax national house price index currently price in a 10 per cent fall in 2008 andaround a 5 per cent fall in 2009 (what about 2 bed flats?). A 10% fall will reduce GDP by 1%.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:39 AM 13 Comments

Nothing new just reinforcing what we know

Guardian: UK consumers face 'rapid and painful' downturn

Consumers should be braced for a 'rapid, painful adjustment' as Britain's buy-now-pay-later economy faces up to a new era of straitened credit. 'This is going to be a rapid, painful adjustment and it will be a rough ride for a substantial proportion of the population. We are facing a massive sea change in the balance of the economy, 'It will be particularly painful for those that have recently stepped onto the housing market ladder and those coming off cheap two-year fixed mortgages.' All hopes now rest on are exporters!!! Do we have any left?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:17 AM 0 Comments

Creative Finance vs Sanctity of Contracts

Guardian: 'Mortgage holidays' for hard-up homeowners

Well, there's an election coming up: "Homeowners facing the threat of repossession could be offered 'mortgage holidays' from their payments and other deals to keep them under their own roof under proposals to be discussed at a government summit this week."

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:09 AM 7 Comments

Well, bet on a crashing market then buy from a t*sser estate agent

Wall Street Journal: Hedge funds Paulson trades up

Last year, hedge-fund manager John Paulson pocketed billions by betting the housing market would collapse, but in the Hamptons, hes just listed his three-acre retreat for $19.5 million, more than 50 percent above what he paid for it two years ago. The founder of Paulson & Co., managing roughly $32 billion, recently bought a 10.4-acre lakefront compound less than a mile away for $41.3 million. The seller was Rodney Propp, chairman of a Manhattan property firm.

Posted by lvmreader @ 12:09 AM 1 Comments

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Delusion, delusion, delusion

Times: Rosie Millard's Dinner party conversation turns to property and the credit crunch

We are going to have to get used to a brave new world. Negative equity, I salute you. Well, at least well go down with vigour, if go down we must."

Posted by confused76 @ 11:56 PM 4 Comments

Clingons on the starboard bow

Times online: Boldly going into uncharted territory

Prices fell 7% in Germany this YTD and no boom to push them up either.

Posted by waiting for the crash @ 10:26 PM 5 Comments

Darling's dilemma?

Bloomberg: Buiter Says U.K. Banks Need $200 Billion Aid From BoE

"Former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter said the central bank will need to offer loan swaps to financial institutions of at least 100 billion pounds ($200 billion) to kick-start the U.K. mortgage market".

Posted by alan @ 10:24 PM 1 Comments

Long winded, but gets the message across...

Yahoo! Finance: Why Homebuyers Can Afford To Be Patient

The point is, you don't have to rush onto the market. You can take some time to improve your finances. You can take your time to find the right property at a bargain price, whether that shows up in one year or four. You don't have to buy the first property you see at the listed price.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 09:01 PM 6 Comments

Gordy, you can't always get what you want...

Times: Chaos fears over strike at refinery

Fake low inflation, declining real value of salaries, unprecedented attacks of pensions, 6 million people on benefits in the UK, widespread benefit frauds, highest level of taxation ever, crumbling infrastructures, lost ownership of critical banks, power stations, roads, rails to French, Spanish, Germans. The dustbin of history is ready for Gordy and his clowns (Ed Balls first into the chute) the house price crash is the catalyst.

Posted by confused76 @ 07:15 PM 16 Comments

New York Globex: Gold manipulation at new levels

Market Oracle: Why Gold Was 'Hacked' Friday- and How

A $35 price drop in gold coupled with the secretive launch of a brand new, super fast, 33 trades per second global trading platform for gold. What a coincidence!

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:14 PM 8 Comments

Tragical Ali: taxpayers' money used as life support for BTL!!!!!!!!!!!!

Herald: Credit fall out lands on buy-to-let. YIEPEEE!

Smart people to drop the Pound and leave the UK before the country turns really nasty. "For landlords facing a hike in interest rates, Private Sector Leasing schemes Landlords looking for certainty could be thrown a lifeline by the growth of private sector leasing (PSL) schemes in Scotland. In return for handing over their property to a council for three, four or five years, landlords get a guaranteed monthly rent - even if their property is empty.Rents typically match what a landlord would get on the private market, less the fee a management agent would take - typically 10-15%.Where landlords who opt for PSL come out better is that in addition to the guaranteed rent, all legal and final redecoration costs will be paid for by the scheme"

Posted by confused76 @ 07:03 PM 1 Comments

Landed gentry see same trends as HPC bloggers.

Belfast Telegraph: Ailing UK property market is unlikely to hit bottom in 2008, predicts Grosvenor

The Duke of Westminster's property group, Grosvenor, warned yesterday that Britain's commercial property market was unlikely to recover this year and that real estate returns were likely to slow globally. Also....see www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/breaking-news/ireland/article3588844.ece

Posted by rental john @ 06:39 PM 0 Comments

Comical Ali

Telegraph: It's tough out there, but the good times will return

Need there be such dramatic predictions about the property market? We need commonsense alongside financial realism. It has been claimed that Britain is more vulnerable than the US to a collapse in residential property values because our level of personal debt is higher. I disagree. Even if average values fell 20 per cent this would less than negate the average increase during 2003 alone. First-time buyers are not disappearing. They comprised nearly a third of purchasers last year with an average 20 per cent deposit, usually thanks to parents and grandparents ploughing their property gains back into the market. The buy-to-let sector is strong and growing. Almost 50 per cent of landlords plan to buy more, to take advantage of dipped prices.

Posted by little professor @ 06:33 PM 7 Comments

Some good points, some bad points.

John Redwood: If they can manage 50 billion now, why not before the run on the Rock?

I don't agree with everything he say's but he does make some intersting points.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:23 PM 3 Comments

You didn't meddle on the way up, Gordon...

Monevator: Hands off our falling house prices

Soaring prices of staples like wheat are making the headlines as the worst thing since unsliced bread, so why are soaring house prices seen as a good thing? We all need somewhere to live, just like we all need somewhere to live. Now prices are falling, the Government should leave them be. Anything else would be self-interested hypocrisy.

Posted by the investor @ 05:09 PM 2 Comments

First 10 minutes on houseprices

BBC Radio 4: Now Show

You have to laugh Crash acceptance in BBC land

Posted by mken @ 04:35 PM 0 Comments

Another bash at HPC.co.uk

Telegraph: Apocalypse now? I don't think so

t seems there is quite a cabal of people in his court. They congregate online at a website called housepricecrash.co.uk, where they exchange views on why it is better to rent than to buy, and place bets on how long it will take before prices slide back to mid-1990s levels. I wouldn't recommend the site to anyone looking for a balanced take on the market: many of its users seem to have a positive vendetta against homeowners.

Posted by little professor @ 04:24 PM 24 Comments

For VI's....Keep watching over and over to be convinced


First time around I was still cynical - after 24hrs I was convinced!!!! NOT.......LOL

Posted by rental john @ 03:34 PM 3 Comments

We dont want to repossess homes worth less than their mortgage

BBC: Mortgage help demand for jobless

Surprise, surprise, mortgage lenders are asking the government to give the masses of potentially unemployed more assistance with their repayments.

Posted by enuii @ 03:26 PM 6 Comments

Level headed editorial comment (dated 18th April)

FT: Banks ask for help

Whatever his troubles, Mr Brown can have little desire to go down in history as the author of what might well prove the biggest misselling scandal in UK history. The government should take no action to sustain either the housing market or any particular level of lending. But it does make sense to help make the market for existing asset-backed securities less illiquid. A proposed scheme to swap such securities for government bonds needs to be brought to early fruition, provided the credit risk remains with their current holders. Yet the government should also tell bankers it believes in the market economy. Prices, it should explain, can go down as well as up, just as terms of lending can tighten as well as ease. It has no interest in rigging the housing market. It would probably fail .

Posted by rental john @ 03:22 PM 0 Comments

What the hell ! house prices reducing

The Guardian: Snooping around

Anna Tims discovered three homes reduced in price, more fuel for the fire, this article was in the glossy weekend magazine, just goes to show how quickly sentiment can change

Posted by pintail @ 03:03 PM 0 Comments

Buy this weekend's FT. Pages 2 & 3 cover the UK subprime defined "worse than the US". The crash is here!!!

FT: Find how your area is exposed to Bye-to-let and "non-prime" mortgages. AHHAHHAH HAH AHHAH

UK housing: areas to watch (hint: Central London is the worst of the worst with BTL concentrations of 20% to 28%)

Posted by confused76 @ 01:52 PM 0 Comments

House prices increase by 200% as wages increase by 25%, case closed

Firstrung: First time buyers witness house prices increase by 200% in a decade

UK House prices for first time buyers throughout the UK have risen a staggering 200 per cent in a decade, the annual Roof Affordability Index has revealed...The index, seen as the most comprehensive yearly data on house affordability, shows the average first time property price has rocketed from 52,674 to 159,494, with house price to income ratios doubling from 1.72 to 3.4. The figure is even higher in London with first time buyers facing a crippling 250 per cent rise to almost 260,000. The devastating report, in the latest Shelter ROOF magazine, confirms the fears that first time buyers are facing the hardest ever battle to buy their first property.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:32 PM 1 Comments

Falling houseprices a good thing

Telegraph: Why is everyone worried about house prices?

A good antedote to the Kirstie article in today's Telegraph: "If you study media reporting of our current economic discontents, you notice something strange. Rising fuel costs, utility bills, startling food price increases are represented as bad. But house price increases are considered good. The headlines about the housing market are all about falling prices, and they invariably contain words like "gloom". Why? Gloom for whom?"

Posted by bigbang @ 01:16 PM 0 Comments

Bit of hard data to put in with all the speculation...

Alexa.com: Alexa Web Traffic Rankings

The chart shows a continual decrease in traffic to property websites in the last 5 months of 2007, but holding steady so far for 2008. Note the v.recent increase of traffic to HPC

Posted by househungry @ 01:02 PM 0 Comments

Put your money where your house is

FT: Stump up the deposit

Posting more than my share today (yes, I should get out more). The BTL carry trade losing its attractions as bigger deposits and fees needed on top of rising rates. Given that these characters pay interest only on loans, remortgagers are going to have to pump more cash into their get-rich-quick investments, even as their value falls. Oh dear.

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:55 PM 0 Comments

Banks: we're in the money...

FT: Matthew Vincent: Time flies but houses sink

This article suggests that the money being thrown at the banks will have less impact on mortgage lending than the banks' balance sheets. While house prices fall, bank shares will rise. Economic incompetence richly rewarded. Buy banks?

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:31 PM 1 Comments

Welcome home GB

Times: Cartoon

Bearing in mind our present feelings about our PM's wisdom, I thought you might enjoy this Morland cartoon

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:35 AM 4 Comments

The credit crunch sinks its teeth into the economy

Property woes increase as slowdown bites: Independent

CML sounding gloomy now - and crying for a bailout, naturally. Bad conditions for commercial property -> bad economy -> unemployment -> house price falls....

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:18 AM 1 Comments

Subprime Britain is like the US

FT: Subprime map of Britain adds to concerns

Britain may be more at risk of a US-style housing slump than previously thought, according to the first detailed UK map that shows where subprime mortgage lending is concentrated.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:08 AM 1 Comments

Forget SubPrime, Alt-A is much larger, and its imploding too!!


Biggest Financial Meltdown in human history guys and girls.. watch this guy, he explains how big and precarious the Alt-A mortgage market is. SubPrime is a picnic compared to whats coming!

Posted by khayl @ 09:26 AM 2 Comments

Bad news causes share prices to rise; why?

Guardian: Banks are top risers despite RBS rights issue

The City decided to look on the bright side yesterday despite the prospect of yet more bad news in the banking sector. Banks ended among the top risers yesterday, recovering from earlier losses after traders fretted over reports of a possible 12bn rights issue from Royal Bank of Scotland. Can somebody please why the worst news causes the share price to rise. I cannot believe that the banks have told us all their bad news!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:45 AM 19 Comments

The figures are getting bigger

Guardian: 50bn move to unlock mortgage market

The BoE is preparing to unveil a plan to inject 50bn of funds into the financial system. The government is expected to issue bonds which lenders will be able to exchange for packages of mortgages lodged with the Bank as collateral. The 50bn may not be as much as the lenders were hoping for!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I think there should be a new law that forces all the media to put the zero's behind the pound sign 50,000,000,000!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:31 AM 11 Comments

Krusty blasts HPC.co.uk

Telegraph: Locating the cause of the property crisis with Kirstie Allsopp

With her meandering curves and no-nonsense approach, Kirstie Allsop was voted one of the world's sexiest women. She lives in not one but three small flats, bought at different times, with a huge painting in the hall saying, "Why Rent When You Can Buy?" The people she finds most irresponsible are those who are trying to whip up fear. "There is a website called Housepricecrash.com and I am their deadliest enemy. They all rent and have a vested interest and enjoyment in watching others suffer. That's sick. Schadenfreude is absolutely disgusting and a terrible trait. There has been overpricing in some areas but this is not America. We are not going into freefall unless we panic ourselves into it."

Posted by little professor @ 01:21 AM 75 Comments

Bank chiefs warn YOUR home is overvalued by 30 per cent

This is London: House prices 'will crash soon': Bank chiefs warn YOUR home is overvalued by 30 per cent

House prices are 30 per cent too high in the UK and could soon crash, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday. After a decade-long housing boom, it fears Britain is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to suffer a devastating price collapse.

Posted by robin @ 12:18 AM 0 Comments

Friday, April 18, 2008

Incompetence funded by ... pension funds, e.g. you and me

Economist: And the cupboard was bare

EVER since the emperor bought new clothes, there have been few instances of self-delusion quite as stark as that of cavalier British bankers at the start of 2008. Just as rivals in America and other parts of Europe were writing down billions on their investments in dodgy mortgage loans and frantically raising money, the bosses of Britains biggest banks were instead blithely increasing their dividends in a blustery display of financial strength. I heard on the BBC that RBS is looking to be the first in line because there are fears that the markets will run out of money. Depressingly it was also said that our pension funds e.g. in the end you and me, have an interest in keeping the banks afloat. Oh, yes, and Sir Fred won't be sacked because he has to manage the complex merger.

Posted by mken @ 11:29 PM 0 Comments

Bookies are not often wrong

Ladbrokes.com: House price odds

UK House Prices 2008 To rise: odds =9 To fall by less than 10% = 2 To fall by at least 10% = 1.83 To fall by at least 20% = 7 This could be a useful hedge for those buy2letters out there and tax fee.

Posted by johnybaby @ 10:45 PM 0 Comments

The shape of things to come

Bloomberg: Spain Approves Stimulus Package as Housing Slumps

The Spanish government approved 18 billion euros ($28 billion) of emergency tax cuts and spending to shore up an economic expansion undermined by a slumping housing market and the global credit shortage. The measures, passed by decree today and enacted immediately, will provide a 400-euro tax rebate to all workers and pensioners, part of 10 billion euros of outlays this year. The remaining 8 billion euros are earmarked for next year.

Posted by alan @ 10:36 PM 10 Comments

A Lesson in Seige Defence from Commander in Chief Law

Assetz: Buy-to-let remains a bastion of strength

Friday night posting: "If buy-to-let is a castle, being assailed in mediaeval-style by a huge army, firing flaming arrows (or should that be negative headlines?) and attempting to batter down the door with the "credit cruncher" siege engine, then it appears to be a fortress that is withstanding the attack very well. Indeed, the latest survey suggests many within those thick walls will soon be riding out to make some more conquests."

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:19 PM 11 Comments

Government 'cooking' the books!

BBC News: Government plan to bail out banks

I couldn't believe what I was reading when I first looked at this article. There cannot be a more blatent disregard to the all the hard working, prudent members of society. What a scandal, this paragraph captures the scam in one... 'the lending programme could open up the Treasury to accusations of creative accounting by opposition parties by limiting the maturity of the bonds to one year, but allowing the lending facility to be in place for three years.'

Posted by loneranger @ 10:15 PM 0 Comments

If there is something, it had better be now.....

CBS News: Bush: U.S. on Verge of Energy Breakthrough

(AP) Saying the nation is on the verge of technological breakthroughs that would "startle" most Americans, President Bush on Monday outlined his energy proposals to help wean the country off foreign oil. Less than half the crude oil used by refineries is produced in the United States, while 60 percent comes from foreign nations, Bush said during the first stop on a two-day trip to talk about energy. Some of these foreign suppliers have "unstable" governments that have fundamental differences with America, he said. "It creates a national security issue and we're held hostage for energy by foreign nations that may not like us," Bush said.

Posted by lvmreader @ 10:08 PM 11 Comments

Tell the Telegraph what you think

Telegraph: What hope is there for the housing market?

Your chance to say how much prices will fall and spread some more anxiety. "What is more interesting is that all the estate agents I have spoken to over the last 2-3 months blame the media - TV and the press - for the crisis; on one day they predict large drops in prices, and the next day it actually happens."

Posted by bobed @ 08:15 PM 0 Comments

The Fed is printing money to clean up the housing bubble, which was fueled by the money it printed to clean up the Internet bubble. The only question is what kind of bubble the new money will inflate.

Baltimore Sun, USA: Bet on oil as the newest bubble

Hmm, somebody got the picture here, unusually rounded reporting from the press about the merry go round that is our unsustainable inflationary based monetary policies of the west, Where is Jesus, when you need him to chase away the money lenders!!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:13 PM 9 Comments


Guardian: Londoners lower prices in bid to sell homes

Miles Shipside, the commercial director of Rightmove, said: "It is highly unusual to see a fall in April. Spring is traditionally the peak season for new sellers to launch their properties on to the market at more optimistic prices, as gardens are looking their best and time is on a seller's side.

Posted by quiet guy @ 07:27 PM 15 Comments

Canada to reignite housing market?

National Post: Canada's housing boom is 'officially over'

Even though the central bank has slashed its key interest rate to 3.50% from 4.50% since December, mortgage rates have come down only about half as much. Banks are facing higher funding rates themselves and have been reluctant to pass on the savings fully. Many economists expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates another half a percentage point on Tuesday, perhaps invigorating the spring selling season, which could prove to be the key test for the Canadian housing market going forward.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 05:23 PM 0 Comments

Sensible words in the Times (unbelievable!)

Times: Scandal of luring first-time buyers

"the problem is not global. It's British. House prices in Britain, at six times average earnings (ACTUALLY IS 10!!) are too high. That's it. We all know that, we've known it for years. Property prices are nonsensical, exorbitant, unaffordable, immorally inflated by investors and a shortage of available land space to build new homes, exploited by a greedy City" but how about affordability, new economy, immigrants, divorces, the students and the ever falling interest rates!

Posted by confused76 @ 05:23 PM 9 Comments

Brian Bloom talks sense again

Market Oracle: Causes of Global Food Crisis- Time for Honesty!!

The 3 causes are: (1) Biofuels Security Act of 2007 (2) Overpopulation (3) Global warming, which was caused by unusually high solar flare activity which, in turn, gave rise to widespread droughts across the face of the planet. (Solar flares inhibit cloud formation).

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:55 PM 8 Comments

Corruption is all we can say now.....

reuters: We're paying record amounts of needless tax

As this labour bunch want more and more, people understand the system less and less..

Posted by mark @ 03:10 PM 4 Comments

Citigroup to cut 9,000 jobs after posting loss

reuters: Citigroup to cut 9,000 jobs after posting loss

The job cuts are in addition to 4,200 announced in the previous quarter. Citigroup said it ended March with about 369,000 employees.

Posted by mark @ 03:08 PM 3 Comments

Credit crisis will crunch real economy

MoneyWeek: Credit crisis will crunch real economy

Not too long ago, some analysts were still claiming that the financial turmoil would have scant impact on the real economy. But the effects of the credit crisis are now clearly kicking in.

Posted by damien @ 02:33 PM 2 Comments

Swiss banks biggest losses

Spiegel: Swiss banks suffer the most

(in german I'm afraid) Analysis from Peter Dixon of commerzbank in London - essentially says that following countries/banks have following percentages of global "known" writedowns so far: USA (47 %) Swiss (17 %) German (15 %) British (5%) In relation to corporate size, Swiss banks have lost the most.40% of their book value. According to report UK banks will be badly affected by any downturn in property. Or as also seems likely to me, we are only beginning to see UK banks reporting any kinds of losses.

Posted by mken @ 02:20 PM 6 Comments

Not strictly news - but wanted to highlight this - OUCH!

Property Snake: 50% off in SW1

Site is linked from HPC. Sorry - not strictly a news blog......but wnated to highlight this headlinerr on Property Snake, and its steady price decline since May 07, also the delisted / listed status makes satisfying reading - as the song says - sometimes you got to hold' em... sometimes you got to fold'em Was the original price too excessive? HELL YES! Is the latest price affordable - not quite but we're getting there. www.bushells.com/search/details.php?whatrec=454&areaID=0&nobed=0&price=0&sortby=1&perpage=5&buyorlet=1

Posted by rental john @ 02:17 PM 7 Comments

HPC news article nearer home

BBC website news: 'Struggle' for first-time buyers

The housing boom of the last decade has priced many first-time buyers out of the UK property market, according to the charity Shelter. While I fully respect the work of Shelter and similar charities......I have to say 'No SH#T Sherlock!' Also - see this on youtube....ride 'THE BUBBLE'..... www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl3Z6MXYe_4&feature=related

Posted by rental john @ 01:25 PM 1 Comments

Same statistics, different spin

The Times: Spring housing misery as mortgages levels fall

"Misery"? "Joy and rapture that housing is becoming more affordable", more like!

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:22 PM 2 Comments

Credit crunch kills another lender

Firstrung: Credit crunch claims another victim as the roof finally caves in on sub prime lender Rooftop

Rooftop Mortgages has blamed unsustainable market conditions for its decision to finally close down its operation. The UK based sub prime subsidiary of US bank Bear Stearns has informed mortgage brokers that its entire range will be withdrawn at 5pm today with a view to winding up the operation completely by July 2008...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:11 PM 2 Comments

Are central banks really to blame for the housing bubble?

MoneyWeek: Are central banks really to blame for the housing bubble?

News of Royal Bank of Scotland's rights issue raises hopes of the credit crunch ending. Its a nice thought. But even if this marks the beginning of a clear-out, theres a long way to go.

Posted by damien @ 12:10 PM 5 Comments

Manhattan property defies gravity

BBC: Manhattan property defies gravity

Property prices in Manhattan have soared 41% at the start of this year, defying the US economic slowdown. Despite belt-tightening and record losses at Wall Street banks, demand for luxury dwellings was strong, said the association of New York estate agents.

Posted by sarcasticmike @ 11:47 AM 0 Comments

And now for the costs of the bailout -- socialized, of course

The Times: Treasury bond scheme depresses gilts prices

As Treasury bonds decline on fears that the government will flood the market with debt in order to bailout mortgage lenders, the cost of government borrowing is rising. This cost will have to be made up through higher taxes or reduced government spending on other priorities.

Posted by richc @ 11:42 AM 11 Comments

It's accelerating!!! Hold tight

CNN: UK housing market has dropped 'alarmingly' in recent weeks - Citigroup

'The update from Taylor Wimpey yesterday, combined with other industry discussions, has confirmed the housing market has dropped alarmingly in recent weeks,' the broker said. 'How much is mortgage availability versus consumer confidence is unknown, but we can see no 'magic bullet' or quick fixes to correct the current woes.'

Posted by crutchley @ 11:08 AM 0 Comments

Was this Brown's trade off?

Financial Times: RBS rights issue

The news and media will be full of this today.....but ask yourself.....Was this the trade off between the banks and Gordon Brown in order to agree the mortgage book to government bond trade off? Be interesting to watch the other BIG banks over the next few days....for more of the same.

Posted by rental john @ 11:03 AM 0 Comments

Ride the curve!

Youtube: UK House Prices Plotted to a Roller Coaster

If you have a spare 3 mins or so - this gives you a new angle on the housing bubble......'what a ride!' I rode this ride during the late 80's and early 90's.....when owned by Lawson's Travelling Circus.......didn't feel too queezy then, but the new owners will get my cleaning bill! (please watch to the end....)

Posted by rental john @ 10:56 AM 0 Comments

Gross mortgage lending down 17% YoY

CML press release: Gross lending slows in first quarter

Gross lending normally increases by around 20% between February and March, but this year the increase was only 5%. Wait for the Express to hail this as a market recovery..

Posted by uncle tom @ 10:22 AM 8 Comments

More brown stuff hitting the fan in the US!

Bloomberg: Auction-Bond Probes Widen; New York's Cuomo Subpoenas 18 Firms

Probes into the collapse of the auction-rate securities market are widening as state regulators from New York to Washington scrutinize how Wall Street peddled the bonds to investors and issuers. ``To have subpoenas and the threat of criminal investigations raised suggests that somebody has made up their mind that there really are abuses there,'' said Donald Langevoort, a former Securities and Exchange Commission attorney who now teaches securities law at Georgetown University in Washington. ``It certainly suggests something more than regulatory curiosity.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:03 AM 0 Comments

Just a reminder

Guardian: Great depression

Pictures of events during the great depression. Just so we all know what to expect.

Posted by inbreda @ 09:59 AM 1 Comments

mmm..surely not

When the shoe shine boy is giving recommendations it is time to get out

nebusiness.co.uk: Anyone can do it, says bus driver millionaire

A Former bus driver has plans to build a multi- million-pound online estate agency business after making a splash in property investment. Ronnie Davison quit his job driving buses for Arriva in Redcar in 2006 after building up a property portfolio worth 5m and is now using the profits to launch online venture Ultimatehomesandfinance.co.uk Ronnie was bitten by the property bug in 2003 after acquiring his first buy-to-let house in Redcar, before purchasing another 55 North East properties in four years, which he has since leased out or refurbished and sold at a profit. He said: "If I can do it, then anybody can do it. Looking back, everything has gone so fast since quitting my job as a bus driver and Im now looking forward to growing the new business.

Posted by jack c @ 09:12 AM 18 Comments

The Mail must be wrong - Gordon & George told us yesterday live on US TV that the UK has low inflation

Daily Mail: The REAL cost of inflation: The Mail's Cost of Living Index reveals food prices rising at SIX times official figure

The true, devastating scale of rising prices is revealed today - by the new Daily Mail Cost of Living Index. It shows that families are having to find more than 100 a month extra this year to cope with increases in the cost of food, heat, light and transport. According to the Consumer Price Index, inflation is running at only 2.5 per cent. Yet the Mail's index finds that food costs alone are rising at 15.5 per cent a year - more than six times the official rate. And there are double-digit increases in other "must-pay" essentials such as petrol, gas and electricity. Many families need to find more than 1,200 extra a year just to stand still.

Posted by jack c @ 08:50 AM 21 Comments

Analysts stressed that this was not something that should worry people with accounts at any RBS banks.

BBC: RBS 'prepares fundraising plan'

But RBS is unlikely to be the only bank considering going to the market for extra capital. Bradford and Bingley denied widespread reports at the weekend that it was planning to raise money in the same way. The global credit crunch has meant banks worldwide are keen to shore up their capital positions - and it is thought others may follow RBS's move.

Posted by malct @ 08:25 AM 6 Comments

serve the people....wot ever!

A person talking frank. Great how he really stops the interviewer from talking BS, and the interviewer seems to know that he's trying to spout BS when he's stopped. Worth a little listen.

youtube: Jim Rogers: Jim Rogers: FED is using taxpayers money to buy BS maseratis

"The first two banks in America failed,, they (Greenspan & Bernanke) are setting up the failure of the Federal Reserve"

Posted by planning4acrash @ 07:34 AM 5 Comments

Worth a read

FT: Let Britains housing bubble burst

A good article that argues that house prices should be left to fall. However, I am not sure that he is correct in thinking GDP will remain postive. One quote "It is high time the British realised a people cannot become rich by selling ever more expensive houses to one another".

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:23 AM 10 Comments

Here we go

Telegraph: Merrill and Citigroup wield axe as 3,500 City jobs set to be cut

Citigroup is preparing to make about 2,400 cuts in its 12,000-strong London office on top of 900 planned redundancies at UBS and a further 400 at Merrill Lynch. Citi's announcement could come as early as today and Merrill is expected to inform UK staff, where 400 of the 4,500 London positions are expected to be cut, on April 28. Who said it wouldn't happen here?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:13 AM 0 Comments

Only 3%?

Telegraph: Inflation to top 3pc, says Bank of England chief economist Charles Bean

Inflation is likely to rise above 3pc later this year as a weak pound exacerbates rising commodity prices and labour costs in China pick up, the Bank of England's chief economist has warned. Charles Bean said that the MPC was "walking a tightrope" between attempting to stimulate growth as the credit crunch bites and allowing inflation to take off. Since August, the pound had fallen as much as it did after it crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, boosting exports (err what exports!) but increasing import costs. Using the traditional economists' rule of thumb that a one percentage point fall in sterling is equivalent to a quarter point cut in interest rates, he said the recent fall was equivalent to a three percentage point cut in interest rates.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:08 AM 12 Comments

RBS plans 12billion rights issue

Telegraph: Royal Bank of Scotland Chief Sir Fred's future on the line

Royal Bank of Scotland is planning a rights issue of up to 12bn to shore up its weakened balance sheet. The move comes after months of speculation that the UK's second biggest bank would have to appeal to shareholders for money. RBS has consistently indicated that it would not have to do a rights issue. RBS has decided to tap shareholders for capital due to worsening sub-prime writedowns and its already fragile tier one position, which makes it the most leveraged of Europe's banks. Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are arranging the rights issue. Analysts estimate that RBS needs to raise 5bn-12bn to repair its balance sheet and also expect a dividend cut. The move is believed to have been prompted by further sub-prime provisions on top of the 2.4bn already reported.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:58 AM 13 Comments

RBS has consistently indicated that it would not have to do a rights issue.

TELEGRAPH UK: Sir Fred Goodwin's job as chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland looked under threat last night following revelations that the lender is planning a rights issue of up to 12bn to shore up its weakened balance sheet.

RBS has decided to tap shareholders for capital due to worsening sub-prime writedowns and its already fragile tier one position, which makes it the most leveraged of Europe's banks. Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are arranging the rights issue and RBS wants it fully underwritten.Analysts estimate that RBS needs to raise 5bn-12bn to repair its balance sheet and also expect a dividend cut.

Posted by chris @ 04:07 AM 0 Comments

Of 1,000 men and women polled, 59 per cent said the UK had too many immigrants and almost half - 49 per cent - wanted foreigners to be encouraged to leave.

daily mail: Two-thirds of British residents fear violence as migrant tensions rise

This was up from 12 per cent in 2005. Some 58 per cent said parts of Britain feel like a foreign country.

Posted by chris @ 01:31 AM 0 Comments

This was so obvious too....

Yahoo News: More parents struggle to tell children about job losses

Why are people shocked about this?

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:03 AM 0 Comments

It was so obvious.........

Yahoo News: Teens turn to thrift as jobs vanish and prices rise

NEW YORK - The souring job market and rising costs of the usual teenage indulgences a slice of pizza, a drive to the mall, the hottest new jeans are causing teens to do something they rarely do: be thrifty.

Posted by lvmreader @ 12:58 AM 2 Comments

bursting will be good for us

ft: Let Britains housing bubble burst

What has happened to British phlegm? Instead of greeting news of falling house prices and tightening lending with aplomb, people shriek that the sky is falling. Steven Crawshaw, chairman of the Council of Mortgage Lenders, warns that it is a real possibility . . . that net lending in 2008 could reach only half last years level unless additional funds become available. "policymakers should respond only to clear market failures"

Posted by mken @ 12:19 AM 0 Comments

Scathing and insightful

Times: Scandal of luring first-time buyers

Gordon Brown is acting immorally by asking for rate cuts that could lead to negative equity. Property prices are nonsensical, exorbitant, unaffordable, immorally inflated by investors and a shortage of available land and exploited by a greedy City. All those buying a property have known this for the past five years at least. Nothing could be more immoral, then, in the current climate, than using government efforts and taxpayers' money to encourage first-time buyers to enter the market, in order to stabilise the dodgy situation that banks and incautious borrowers have got themselves into. How dare a man who has lectured us all ad nauseam about prudence, year after year after year, now use our money to bail out the profligate?

Posted by little professor @ 12:16 AM 13 Comments

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Rents falling in some cities

ft.com: Buy-to-let sector feels pinch of oversupply

Rents are tumbling on some city centre flats as buy-to-let investors pay the price for oversupply. The news will make uncomfortable reading for investors who bought into the boom in development of buy-to-let flats in these city centres, only to find that capital values and now rental income are falling.

Posted by cynicalsoothsayer @ 11:49 PM 1 Comments

Decade of cheap credit and MEWing ends ...

ThisIsLondon: Council tax rises highest in Kingston

...and only now people start looking at the real increases and whats gone on.

Posted by whiteknight @ 11:47 PM 0 Comments

Britain's second biggest bank is to make a plea to the City to try to raise billions of pounds to help shore up its finances, which have been hit by the global credit crisis.

The Telegraph: Royal Bank of Scotland in fresh cash plea

The Royal Bank of Scotland, which owns NatWest, is to launch a rights issue for at least 5 billion. It is the first major British bank to concede that it needs large amounts of extra money and it is expected to trigger a wave of others appealing to shareholders for help. However, the move, disclosed by City sources to The Daily Telegraph is expected to lead to pressure on Sir Fred Goodwin, one of the City's most respected bankers, who may now face calls from RBS shareholders to step aside as chief executive. The move by RBS could lead to pressure on Sir Fred Goodwin to step aside as chief executive.

Posted by micasasucasa @ 11:26 PM 0 Comments

Jobs to go in the City

Standard: Bloody day in the City: 1,300 jobs axed

"The City bloodbath began today as two financial giants axed 1,300 jobs. Bankers suffering in the credit crunch were also prepared for the figure to double tomorrow. UBS announced it would cut 900 staff at its Liverpool Street headquarters by June and Merrill Lynch said it would shed 4,000 jobs worldwide. Sources said that up to 400 of its 4,500 London staff would go. Employees of Citigroup, the world's biggest bank, are now preparing for the axe as sources said it was likely to lay off 1,000 London staff when its first quarter results are published tomorrow" I feel sorry for those who are losing their jobs but the City bubble could not continue forever

Posted by confused76 @ 11:14 PM 2 Comments

Standard & Poors US home price indice

Standard & Poors US home price indice: Standard & Poor

If there is any justice in the world, it is going to go down like a lead balloon!! First two short paragraphs after the chart sum it up nicely. But I watch on with bated breath for the UK.

Posted by i-cld-murder-a-blt @ 10:25 PM 0 Comments

Sold, 370k in the backburner and I'm gonna resurect cardboard city on the Southbank!

Banksy: Welcome 2 London, innitt!

From one of the threads, worth a plug!! Credit to 51ck-6-51x.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 07:57 PM 4 Comments

Update Update Update

guardian.co.uk: The Bank of England mortgage plan

What is the Bank of England planning to do? After intense lobbying by the banking industry, the Bank is drawing up a plan that is intended to make it easier for mortgage lenders to raise money. Why? The authorities have realised that the credit crunch is having an impact on the mortgage market, where loans are being withdrawn or offered at higher rates despite cuts to the official base rate. It is also affecting the amount of lending to small and large businesses which could exacerbate any slowdown in the economy.

Posted by plato @ 07:25 PM 8 Comments

TDX report out today - Total UK unsecured debt is 1.3 trillion more than the total for all of the rest of the EU put together.

Citywire: Personal debt will trigger property collapse

Its not the same this time round. How many times have we heard that? Mortgage pundits reassure us that with full employment homebuyers wont get into difficulties and repossessions will be nowhere near the 78,000 a year seen in the property collapse of the early nineties. But while the optimists no doubt take comfort from the fact that UK unemployment fell by 39,000 to 1.61 million in the three months to the end of February, nobody seems to notice the elephant in the room. Just as the regulators had no idea of the extent of banks off balance sheet financing and failed to identify the trigger for the credit crunch which ensued so everyone is concentrating on the wrong consumer figures.

Posted by jack c @ 07:24 PM 13 Comments

Oh, I think we could call this a crash.

Los Angeles Times: California freefall: Home prices down 26% in February

"In the San Fernando Valley, losing a home to foreclosure is now almost as common for families as buying a home"

Posted by fofp @ 06:32 PM 0 Comments

Good stuff. Figures seem to stack up.

The Times: One UK home in 10 'to fall into negative equity'

Morgan Stanley's analysts said: "Our base case is for a 15 per cent fall in nominal prices over two years... our bear case looks for a 25 per cent decline over two years.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:05 PM 14 Comments

ML yet to specify how many jobs will be axed in the City of London.

Guardian: Merrill Lynch to cut 4,000 jobs

Merrill Lynch, the US investment bank at the centre of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, is to axe 4,000 jobs - one in 10 of its workforce, as it continues to count the cost of its involvement in the products at the heart of the credit crunch. The firm, known as the "thundering herd", reported a first quarter loss, after taking an additional $9bn in write-downs for sub-prime mortgages, loans and other risky assets, of $1.96bn (980m). This contrasts with $2bn of profits in the first quarter of last year. Shares in the bank fell 1.7% to $44.12 in early trading on Wall Street this afternoon.

Posted by jack c @ 03:55 PM 4 Comments

Last one out please turn off the lights

this is london: Bloody day in the City as 1,300 jobs are axed... and another 1,000 workers could go tomorrow

The cuts are the first confirmation of the scale of the job losses facing the City, estimated this week at 40,000 by JP Morgan more than one in 10 of all workers.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 03:49 PM 6 Comments

Vacant Homes in U.K. Prove Speculator Nightmare

Bloomberg.com: Vacant Homes in U.K. Prove Speculator Nightmare as Losses Mount

Bloomberg - Richard Lee spent 5.3 million pounds ($10 million) buying 20 rental homes across the U.K. with just 150,000 pounds of his own money. Today, the properties are worth about 60 percent less and owned by the banks that financed the purchases.

Posted by leeds-bozz @ 03:36 PM 0 Comments

Nothing new, the usual propaganda

LandlordExpert: First time buyers facing eternal renting nightmare

"(psssst - someone tell the press that buy to let is the main beneficiary, not casualty!) Published this week in a report by the charity Shelter, it showed the average first time property price rose from 52,674 pounds to 159,494 pounds over the past decade"

Posted by confused76 @ 03:31 PM 6 Comments

Oversubcripition to money auction

Bloomberg: BOE Received Most Bids in Three Months at Auction

The Bank of England said financial institutions bid for 50 billion pounds ($99 billion) in its weekly auction, the most in three months, as a worsening shortage of credit increased the need for central bank funds. The Bank of England offered 13.7 billion pounds in today's sale, it said in a statement in London. That made the operation more than three times oversubscribed. Total bids were the most since Jan. 10.

Posted by crash n burn @ 02:59 PM 9 Comments

ITV Lunchtime News today - HPC fully underway

ITV News Specials: On The Edge: Stories from credit crunch Britain

The credit crunch, rising prices and a falling housing market are pushing tens of thousands to the edge. ITV have a series of reports tracking the lives of families caught up in the financial turmoil described by the International Monetary Fund as the worst since the great depression Todays feature was presented by ITV News Consumer Editor Chris Choi on how the credit crunch is biting - presumably we'll get a re-run on tonights main ITV news bulletins.

Posted by jack c @ 02:42 PM 0 Comments

London house prices slumped already by 15%

LSE: Hamptons MD: London house prices down 15%

I like the "Free mortgage quote" link at the top of the article; where there's sh1t there's brass eh.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:31 PM 1 Comments

Shout It From The Rooftops

FTAdviser: Rooftop Mortgages to close

And another one bites the dust. Rooftop Mortgages is to withdraw its entire product range at 5pm tomorrow (18 April) in view of winding up the business by the end of July.

Posted by renting2 @ 02:22 PM 3 Comments

Shout It From The Rooftops

FTAdviser: Rooftop Mortgages to close

And another one bites the dust. Rooftop Mortgages is to withdraw its entire product range at 5pm tomorrow (18 April) in view of winding up the business by the end of July.

Posted by renting2 @ 02:22 PM 4 Comments

Shout It From The Rooftops

FTAdviser: Rooftop Mortgages to close

And another one bites the dust. Rooftop Mortgages is to withdraw its entire product range at 5pm tomorrow (18 April) in view of winding up the business by the end of July.

Posted by renting2 @ 02:22 PM 1 Comments

Discount rate dilemma neatly laid out

ConservativeHome: Why the taxpayer will lose on the ... mortgage securities swap scheme

Good logic by Dr Andrew Lilico over at ConHome... If the BoE offers to pay too much for the mortgage crap, they are subsidising the banks at the expense of the taxpayer. If the BoE offers too little, then either a) the banks won't take up the offer, or b) people will see this as a sign that not even the BoE has any confidence in the housing market, thus exacerabting the price crash. It's lose-lose time, folks!

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:50 PM 10 Comments

Why Gordon Brown is not fit to be PM

The Times: What not to do in a Crisis

Although this article is from the careers section of the Times it shows very clearly why Gordon Brown is not fit to be Prime Minister. He is guilty of pretty well all of the mistakes its possible to make in dealing with a crisis. These include passing the buck, digging oneself into a hole and burying ones head in the sand.

Posted by cassandra @ 01:05 PM 2 Comments

George Osbourne congratulates GB on his stupidity, but says he'd have done it quicker

BBC News: George Osbourne supports mortgage plan

I didn't quite see all of this this morning, but the basic crux of it was George Osbourne's only criticism of GB/AD's idiotic plan to bail out poor lending and borrowing with taxpayers' money was that he didn't do it sooner. You don't expect in-depth questioning on BBC breakfast TV, but the banality of the interviewing, without the slightest suggestion that there might be anything wrong with swapping junk mortgages for (effectively) cash was unbelievable. Shows how biased the BBC still is towards the property market, and how little difference there is between Labour and the Conservatives. Vince Cable is the only MP I can think of who has any kind of understanding of economics, but I have a feeling that Nick Clegg might be doing his best to undermine that.

Posted by eyeoftheweasel @ 01:01 PM 22 Comments

Surprise surprise, the housebuilders aren't to be trusted

BBC News: Building Firms Rigged Contracts

The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has accused 112 construction companies of rigging bids for contracts. It said the firms colluded among themselves while bidding for contracts, leading to customers, such as local authorities, having to pay too much. The regulator added that in a few cases firms entered into agreements whereby the successful tenderer would pay a sum of money to those that lost out. It said 40 firms had admitted price fixing, and 37 had asked for leniency.

Posted by matt @ 12:58 PM 0 Comments

UK Tax Payer is now bailing out the whole UK banking sector

Market Oracle: Bank of England Prepares to Ramp Up the Money Printing Presses

"Banking stocks soared on the news, which is not surprising given the fact that the UK Tax payer is now providing the banks with billions in as good as cash securities in exchange for illiquid junk securities. Perhaps Gordon Browns next election winning 'bright idea' will be to make up the difference for all home owners that go into negative equity during 2008 ? "

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:01 PM 20 Comments

It is the Debt, Stupid! (That will dictate the direction of the inflation rate).

Market Oracle: US Actual Inflation Trend Heading for Stagflation or Deflation?

The housing bubble postponed the deflationary depression of the Longwave and its burst will usher in the inevitable. The incessant interventions from the Fed and the USG will dampen the severity but they will also prolong the depression by postponing the adjustments that need to take place, especially, 30-50% drop in home prices, nationally, and more in the bubble areas. Bankers' mischief (imprudent loans and financing) never fails to bring on economic and financial catastrophes, according to Schumpeter. Needless to say, the bankers' mischief attained new heights in recent years. One wonders what the Fed and the USG were doing. Isn't it amazing that these things get worse over time in subsequent cycles? Crooks learn from history (how to do it) and the general population doesn't

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:52 AM 0 Comments

Adrian Ash from Bullionvault

Market Oracle: 40 Years of Real Interest Rates and, 80 Years of Dow/Gold Ratio

Crude oil, rice, Gold , the Euro, wheat, emerging market bonds, copper...anything that's not stamped with the all-seeing eye of the Dollar looks a great bet once again. The Federal Reserve has seen to that, driving the real returns paid to cash down towards a three-decade low.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:35 AM 0 Comments

Oil prices have surged to almost $115 a barrel

The Telegraph: Oil surges as investors hunt an 'anti-dollar'

"Hot money funds are also playing a role, trading oil as a sort of "anti-dollar". Crude is moving in reverse lockstep with the greenback, pushing ever higher (with double or triple leverage) as the dollar reaches fresh lows against the euro. Surging oil prices are in turn stoking inflation, causing investors to bet yet more on oil futures as an inflation hedge. "This has entered a vicious spiral," Dr Lasserre said"

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:24 AM 14 Comments

More on the LIBOR 'fiddling' by banks.

Bloomberg: Money-Market Rates May Rise on Threat to Ban Banks From Libor

Money-market rates may rise after the British Bankers' Association threatened to ban members that deliberately understate their borrowing costs. Participants have complained that banks may be submitting inaccurate information amid the global credit squeeze, Angela Knight, chief executive officer of the London-based association, said yesterday. The BBA will exclude banks that give misleading quotes and plans to speed up a review of the daily ``fixing'' process by which borrowing costs are determined, it said.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:23 AM 0 Comments


BBC News: First-time buyer survey region-by-region

I couldn't believe it when I saw this on today's news page. Prices have started falling and the Brown Bullsh1t Corporation write an article about how they've risen by about 200% between 1997 and 2007. Aren't they supposed to be reporting today's news. It's 2008 guys!

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:18 AM 12 Comments

Gordon is naive and desperate: the banks are doing the right thing

Times Online: For once banks aren't being greedy

Camilla Cavendish in the Times says that the attitude of the banks is correct and it's Gordon Brown who has it all wrong. Banks are trying to recapitalise their balance sheets by raising interest rates on loans and that's exactly what they should be doing as they were overstretched on a weak capital base during the lending boom. Now is the time for them to pull back and act responsibly. GB telling them to do otherwise is just naive desperation.

Posted by an bearin bui @ 10:17 AM 0 Comments

Brown's attempt at alchemy

Telegraph: Gordon Brown: Banks must admit the truth

Important article this. The idea is to turn the base paper of mortgage securities into gilts. But - a big but - the taxpayer must not take on the risk. How they might achieve this I am not sure. If the banks know that all the others still carry this particular can, will it make any difference to confidence? Lots of other interesting snippets - Libor underestimates interbank lending rate; BTL lenders pulling our (Hurray); Halifax ups its 2 yr fix.... And our favourite politician quoted again.

Posted by letthemfall @ 09:56 AM 7 Comments

BTL Market 'Unraveling'

Bloomberg: Vacant Homes in U.K. Prove Speculator Nightmare as Losses Mount

Richard Lee spent 5.3 million pounds ($10 million) buying 20 rental homes across the U.K. with just 150,000 pounds of his own money. Today, the properties are worth about 60 percent less and owned by the banks that financed the purchases. // Buy-to-let investors who were behind on their mortgages by three months or more increased by 25 percent to 7,584 in the fourth quarter, according to the London-based Council of Mortgage Lenders. Repossessions rose 26 percent to 1,247.

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 08:54 AM 42 Comments

Interesting article from yesterday's Times - worth a second L@@K

The Times: US housing market faces record number of defaults

Printed version was headed ' Las vega leads losers in US housing market slump'... 234,685 American homes entered foreclosure in March, a 57% jump, representing 1 in 538 households....

Posted by rental john @ 08:46 AM 0 Comments

corruption and greed in the building trade.....no way!!!

timesonline: OFT names 112 building firms in bid-rigging scandal

How long until the serious fraud office start to name solicitors and EA's as well????? This makes those explanations of high demand, limited supply etc total and utter B*ll*cks

Posted by bystander @ 08:42 AM 8 Comments

Blast from the past: 2000

BBC News: Farewell to housing boom and bust

A clutch of recent data suggests the UK property boom is cooling. One well-known economist believes that house buyers have now seen the last of rapid rises and falls in prices. Roger Bootle, of Deloitte & Touche, says house prices will now rise 4-5% annually, slightly higher than the general level of prices. "The end of the boom and bust in the housing market will help to bring greater stability in the economy as a whole. After all the ups and downs of the past 25 years that would be a major prize to have won," he added. Merrill Lynch's Michael Taylor said: "The lessons of the housing market boom and bust do appear to have been learnt ... double digit house price inflation does appear to be in the past."

Posted by little professor @ 08:38 AM 9 Comments

Is LIBOR accurate? - An interesting and significant question. GB will do everything humanly possible to influence their findings and not let LIBOR increase.

Telegraph: Libor credibility questioned as credit crunch deepens

The British Bankers' Association has brought forward a review into how it sets the pivotal London Interbank Offered Rate amid mounting concerns over the credibility of the measurement. The association yesterday revealed it was re-assessing how it calculates Libor - a benchmark measurement that filters through the economy, affecting mortgage and other interest rates across the lending system.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:37 AM 2 Comments

Another Nail in the Coffin For Buy to Let

The Times: Business Article

Does anyone know what percentage of Buy to Let Mortgages this comprises?

Posted by orwell @ 08:03 AM 2 Comments

London may lose 40,000 City jobs as a result of the sub-prime crisis and global credit crunch, according to analysts at JP Morgan Chase.

TELEGRAPH UK: City may lose 40,000 jobs, predicts JP Morgan

JP Morgan's new estimate came from its property team, rather than its economists, who said in a note: "We expect a potential 40,000 job losses in the City and minus 16pc rental growth."

Posted by chris @ 12:26 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Now the blame game gathers momentum

Citywire: Who's to blame for the housing bubble?

The story of the UK housing market the real story, the bit with the heroes and the villains is, like the markets indices and headlines, in a state of constant flux.......................developers and the buy-to-let investors who, galvanised by the bull market, mesmerised by the glittering profits, have pumped air into the creaking bubble like theres no tomorrow (which, for some of them, there probably wont be)?

Posted by jack c @ 10:29 PM 2 Comments

Summary of how we got here and what we now need to do

John Redwood Blog: One Cheer for Gordon?

While I am not a fan of John Redwood he does have some interesting views.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 09:19 PM 3 Comments


BTL comedy at it's best

Mortgagestrategy: Financiers urge landlords to release equity

Cardiff-based property financiers Kingswood Associates is calling on landlords and businesses to release finance from their properties while there is still time. It suggests that by using equity built up in a buoyant market to purchase extra properties during a period of uncertainty, landlords can grow their portfolio at a much greater rate, acquiring properties at a lower price.

Posted by jack c @ 07:10 PM 2 Comments

Crash! Burn! Crash! Burn

City A.M.: London House Prices have fallen 15%

I can't find article on their website, but it kicks off with "The London property market was dealt a further blow yesterday after the managing director of [Hamptons] said he believed prices had already fallen 15 per cent in the capital ... Mark Anderson ... told City A.M the London housing market had reached 'unsustainable' levels at its peak last summer and prices were now falling."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 06:38 PM 23 Comments

14th June 2007 - The bears have been proved wrong

Economist: Signs of the beast

But many will be wary of getting too bearish too soon, given that market blips in May 2006 and February this year were quickly reversed. The bears have been proved wrong before... But the recent rise in bond yields may indicate that this benign scenario is coming to an end. The worry is that real (after-inflation) yields have been rising. The real yield is the price that balances the demand and supply of savings. So higher yields indicate a change in this balance, perhaps because Asian banks are losing their enthusiasm for American Treasury bonds or because more money is going into the real economy, through higher capital expenditure.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:19 PM 5 Comments

Mentioned elsewhere on HPC but now the main headling on BBC

BBC: Government plans to help UK banks

The Bank of England is poised to launch a new lending programme for UK banks in an effort to break the logjam in the credit market, the BBC has learned. Final details are still being worked out including the scale of the plan and the exact terms. But it will be similar to moves in the US, will be backed by the Treasury and could be launched as soon as next week.

Posted by jack c @ 06:10 PM 41 Comments

Casinos laying off staff!!! Now then Gordon, about that SuperCasino...

Detroit News: MGM Mirage layoffs blamed on penny-pinching vacationers

MGM Mirage Inc., the largest casino operator on the Las Vegas Strip, told more than 400 middle management employees they would be terminated immediately in a cost-saving move, the company said. The decision will save $75 million annually and came after the company saw weakness since August at its properties, which include Bellagio, MGM Grand, Mirage and Mandalay Bay, spokesman Alan Feldman told The Associated Press on Monday. The move is the largest and swiftest by a casino operator in the current economic downturn, although the use of so-called "extra board" employees such as dealers and busboys who take fill-in shifts as needed has been down citywide.

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:32 PM 1 Comments

But everything is OK. Really. Dubya says so.

Harpers: The next bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash

1. I will use the familiar term bubble as a shorthand, but note that it confuses cause with effect. A better, if ungainly, descriptor would be asset-price hyperinflationthe huge spike in asset prices that results from a perverse self-reinforcing belief system, a fog that clouds the judgment of all but the most aware participants in the market. Asset hyperinflation starts at a certain stage of market development under just the right conditions. The bubble is the result of that financial madness, seen only when the fog rolls away.

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:24 PM 5 Comments

But everything is OK. Really. Dubya says so.

Foreclosure Pulse: Bank repossessions in NY up +597%

The implication: while significantly more homeowners are falling into foreclosure, there is an even bigger increase in the number of homeowners already in the process who are losing their homes to foreclosure whether through the typical foreclosure sale mechanism or whether by pre-empting the public foreclosure sale through what is called a deed in lieu of foreclosure. The year-over-year increase in bank repossessions was even more dramatic in some states: 619 percent in Arizona; 597 percent in New York; 557 percent in California; and 464 percent in Florida.

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:23 PM 0 Comments

There is nothing wrong with it its not illegal, But its ugly.

new york times: Wall Street Winners Get Billion-Dollar Paydays

Hedge fund managers, those masters of a secretive, sometimes volatile financial universe, are making money on a scale that once seemed unimaginable, even in Wall Streets rarefied realms. One manager, John Paulson, made $3.7 billion last year. He reaped that bounty, probably the richest in Wall Street history, by betting against certain mortgages and complex financial products that held them.

Posted by malct @ 04:04 PM 0 Comments

Saving Wall Street with a trillion-dollar bailout of bad mortgage debt

counterpunch: A Trillion Dollar Rescue for Wall Street Gamblers

If the move to a Unitary Executive of unfettered presidential power frightens you, America's radical right turn to Unitary Finance should compound your fears--and your debts as well. The financial events of the last two weeks of March 2008 demonstrate that the "economic royalists" and "money changers" whom Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) drove from the temple of finance have returned to mismanage our economy into dire straights of unprecedented risk--debt creation, euphemized as "leveraging" and "wealth creation." oh but that's OK it's over there not here

Posted by malct @ 03:55 PM 1 Comments

The hits just keep coming!

Yahoo News: Housing construction falls sharply in March

WASHINGTON - The construction of new homes plunged in March to the lowest level in 17 years, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. ADVERTISEMENT Housing construction dropped by 11.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000 units, a much bigger decline than economists had been forecasting. Building permits also fell in March, signalling even more problems ahead for the beleaguered housing industry.

Posted by yt1 @ 03:25 PM 0 Comments

Guide to Gazundering Anyone?

Motley Fool: Capitalise On House Price Falls

You can almost smell the fear. "The Royal Institution Of Chartered Surveyors has just published its gloomiest view on house prices since the records began in 1978." "You may think such a practice (gazundering) is unethical or even immoral. But in a market where prices are falling rapidly, I think it is understandable." This will become standard practice unless the deal goes through in days.

Posted by renting2 @ 03:21 PM 12 Comments

Money market turmoil keeps EU Treaty out of the news

The Scotsman: Stop deceiving British people over EU treaty

"The banks-induced turmoil in the money markets has expunged any further media reference to the Lisbon treaty, which the House of Commons treacherously approved recently. This is the treaty that surrenders the last vestiges of British national sovereignty to the European Union. This is the treaty that the government mendaciously asserts is markedly different from the European Constitutional Treaty, upon which the British people were promised a referendum."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:37 PM 7 Comments

The big issue on any currency is if its rate of depreciation is so fast that it scares away all capital

NaturalNews: Meltdown of U.S. Dollar Underway as China Dumps the Currency

Chinese Central Bank Vice Director Xiu Jian said that his country is planning to shift much of its $1.4 trillion national currency reserve from dollars to more stable currencies, such as the euro or Canadian dollar. After these comments, the dollar fell to record lows relative to other currencies -- the lowest ever against the euro, the lowest in a generation against the British pound, and the lowest in 57 years against the Canadian dollar.

Posted by malct @ 01:55 PM 6 Comments

Ahh, at loast the truth comes out!! (PDF file)

Google: SubPrime Explained!!

An explanation of the Sub Prime crisis that everyone can understand!

Posted by benali @ 01:20 PM 0 Comments

Money for Nothing Property for Free - that's what the man says

property investment secrets: How Anyone Over 18 Can Easily Retire In 7 Years... And Be Wealthy For Life!

found this (big) advert on the Soros page below - ah hem! Hi Andy Just finished your book... and have decided to immediately read it again! It was full of invaluable information and as a total novice in the buy-to-let market I found it fascinating. I really enjoyed the book and I am already scouring the local papers property section for some good deals. Regards Graham E. It doesn't matter what other so-called "experts" say... the truth is you never need to sell your investment properties to make your money - yep! You read that right! I'll show you exactly why you will make more money by NOT selling, and why only amateur investors sell!

Posted by malct @ 01:12 PM 7 Comments

more people should be standing up and shouting. If not, we may very well be doomed.

huffington post: My Conversation with George Soros

I heard George Soros say Big mistake, Bubbles and Bailout. I have another B word for him. Bull Butter (actually 2 words) Not everything that is legal is ethical. Not everything that is ethical is legal. This is an absolute truth that used to be understood and is nowadays dismissed as old fashioned.

Posted by malct @ 01:02 PM 2 Comments

Lincoln prices lose 6m

Lincolnshire Echo: Main story

Fantastic. Local papers are reporting falls. Keep up the good work Gordon Brown. As long as he bahaves as a clown, the confidence in the market will drain. And I will get richer profiting from the misery of idiots.

Posted by swisstoni @ 01:02 PM 1 Comments

Wait For It...........For My Next Trick...........

mortgagestrategy: Warning to PM over small lenders' survival

The UKs biggest banks and building societies have warned the government that smaller mortgage lenders could be forced out of the market entirely unless the government intervenes. The warning that smaller lenders may be forced to stop all new lending ... Now what would you do faced with the same threat........I mean problem?

Posted by plato @ 12:55 PM 6 Comments

Did greed create the credit crunch?

MoneyWeek: Has greed created the credit crunch?

'...is it any wonder that people developed a speculation expectation? This fed into an entitlement mentality...that tainted every rung of the credit ladder. A lot of people wanted to buy and flip, whether it was houses or stocks or commodities. So other people lent to people to enable buying and flipping..."

Posted by damien @ 12:34 PM 15 Comments

Auction house compiled data reveals trends outside other indexes

Allsop & EIG: Residential Auction Property Investment Data

51ck-6-51x: "Since almost all auction sales are paid for by cash they are not included in much of the other compiled data we see. I would point to graphs 7 & 8 especially."

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 12:32 PM 7 Comments

Subprime was only the beginning

Slate.com: Here Comes the Next Mortgage Crisis

"California is to mortgage lending what Chicago is to pork bellies. For years, that meant it was a place with soaring house values; today, the foreclosure rate across the state is twice the national average and going up fast. Riverside County, outside Los Angeles, may be the foreclosure capital of the country, with a rate close to six times the national average. And housing prices are in freefall." This is the first time I've come across the use of the word "homedebtor" instead of homeowner.

Posted by seldon @ 12:29 PM 0 Comments

Immaculate injection

BBC: No easy answers to the credit crunch

Downing Street insists that Gordon Brown's morning meeting with the bosses of Britain's leading banks was "routine". It is a fair bet that the bankers pressed for urgent help to resolve the credit crunch, and the prime minister stayed on the fence.

Posted by holding out @ 12:27 PM 0 Comments

weak currency vs strong currency= Inflation lies

Bloomberg: European Inflation Accelerates More Than Estimated

Question: How can a country with a very weak currency that imports almost everything have inflation of 2.5%, while a coalition of countries with a very strong currency, that imports and exports and trades with itself, have inflation of 3.6%? Answers on a postcard to Gordon 'Oliver' Brown c/o the peoples republic of Zimbabwe, office of creative statistics.

Posted by bystander @ 12:19 PM 0 Comments

Is this a buy signal then????

The Telegraph: Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo warn 'delusional' investors on stocks

"Wall Street faces the growing risk of an equities bloodbath in coming months as the credit crunch spreads to the wider economy and earnings crumble, according to a pair of grim reports issued by Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo." We all know Goldman do the opposite to their public statements. I am sure they will be buying on the dips over the summer. Loads more IR cuts to prop up stocks when they fall.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:14 PM 0 Comments

Euro breakup ahead???

The Telegraph: Berlusconi plans Paris-Rome axis to humble European Central Bank

The last time Mr Berlusconi was in power, two ministers from his coalition partner 'La Lega Nord' called for a return to the lira to escape the constraints of the euro system. While he did not endorse the comments, he appeared to relish their effect on his enemies in Brussels and Frankfurt.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:02 PM 6 Comments

possibility of government attempting to inflate its way out of a recession

Market Oracle: Housing Market Worst Since 1978- Heading for April Apocalypse?

Britains housing boom has been one of the biggest in the western world and it is highly likely that once the dust settles in some 2-3 years time, it will turn out to be one of the biggest housing busts in the west. The Housing bust of 2008 will be followed by a sharp slow down in economic activity during 2009 towards recession. Gordon Brown's government is running on borrowed time as the clock ticks towards a 2010 election deadline and thus there is a strong possibility of the government attempting to inflate its way out of a recession which will lead to a sharp fall in sterling accompanied by much higher than expected inflation during 2009 and 2010 than the current inflation rate which is expected to fall towards the government target by November 08.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:52 AM 0 Comments

Bond market says a recovery

Market Oracle: Forget the Credit Crisis Headlines, Listen to the Bond Market!

The collective message of the bond market is one that is being almost entirely ignored by the financial press. While millions of investors are caught up in the past, cowering under their beds waiting for the next financial bomb to drop, the bond market is screaming to all that will listen, The worst is over the economy will improve!

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:36 AM 9 Comments

Serves them right

The Times: Thousands to have usual credit lines cut off

"Almost 600,000 people will be unable to refinance their debts this year after finding their usual lines of credit cut off, forcing them to go bust or sign expensive bankruptcy-lite agreements". Somebody already posted the Guardian article, this is just The Times' spin on things for comparison.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:25 AM 4 Comments

Stop Press - Bank of Mum and Dad to bail out the economy

thisismoney: 'Bank of Mum & Dad' to donate 223bn

With lending criteria drastically tightening and house prices - despite any falls - still remaining well out of reach for many first-time buyers, the 'Bank of Mum & Dad' is to be called upon even more, according to new research. In the UK some 5.5m parents have already given 116bn to their children to help get them onto the property ladder. But another 10m are preparing (YEAH RIGHT) to donate almost double that at 223bn says Heartwood Wealth Management, an independent financial adviser.

Posted by uncle chris @ 11:23 AM 9 Comments

Got Gold?

Market Oracle: Protect Your Wealth from Wall Street Liars

"Few seem to remember that Wall Street is not a non-profit community driven by altruism or any sense of service. They would gladly cheat you out of your entire life savings if their actions were legal, or at least not prosecuted. In the last two to three years, the lies, deception, misdirection, false reporting, corruption, and grand fraud will be the topic of historical accounts for decades"

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:17 AM 2 Comments


Mirror: Mortgage lender Halifax snubs Gordon Brown's plea

The Halifax confirmed last night it was RAISING the cost of some of its most popular mortgage deals by 0.5 per cent from today (16th April 2008). Its two-year fixed rates will increase from 6.09 per cent to 6.59 - adding 46 a month to repayments on a 150,000 loan.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 11:06 AM 1 Comments

Brown waffles on - but will it make any difference

Telegraph: Bank of England set to act on mortgage crisis

Some interesting points here. Libor remains steady at about 1% above base. Latest 15bn auction of 3 month funds undersubscribed; reason believed to be that banks short of AAA mortgage paper as collateral and want to hold on to their good stuff because they hope the Bank will accept the rubbish later. Will any of this dodgy business work? In these situations the antics of govts and banks are often futile. We shall see.

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:03 AM 3 Comments

Spains in trouble but the outlook for the UK is far worse

MoneyWeek: Spains in trouble but the outlook for the UK is far worse

Britains not the only place feeling the squeeze, as the Spanish economy is also taking a hit from the end of its housing boom. But anyone who thinks that Spain is in trouble should be far more worried about the UK - we're much more exposed to the credit crunch...

Posted by damien @ 10:55 AM 0 Comments

Brilliant Forecast!

Axis of Logic: The Parlous Condition of Britain's Economy!

This forecast and analysis was written four years ago! Shame Gordon Brown didn't read it!

Posted by prescience @ 10:07 AM 0 Comments

Dubious measurements, just like CPI

BBC News: UK unemployment falls by 39,000

''...UK unemployment fell by 39,000 to 1.61m in the three months to the end of February, government figures show. ...''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:58 AM 19 Comments

The announcement that Shire, the UK's third largest drug company and a member of the FTSE 100 elite, is upping sticks and moving offshore is yet another headache for Gordon Brown and his chancellor

telegraph.: Shire's first to flee UK taxes - but may not be the last

move will send shock waves through the Treasury and spark fears that where Shire leads other FTSE 100 constituents will follow. Vodafone reportedly looked at a similar move in 2000 and others tipped as likely candidates to move offshore include BP and GlaxoSmithKline - some of the UK's largest taxpayers.

Posted by chris @ 09:20 AM 7 Comments

VIs complaining about biased reporting

BBC Radio 4: HPC mentioned on Today Programme

About 8.45 ish this morning - e.g. 15 mins into the audio clip. HPC gets a mention! This time a fine selection of VIs talking about the "real world" - in which there is no crash being falsely reported. I don't remember any questioning of "fair" reporting when house prices were going up. Where were the reports of the media talking up the market then?

Posted by mken @ 09:04 AM 12 Comments

JJB and Ethel Austin stores to close

Independent: JJB Sports chain to close 72 stores

The retail chain JJB Sports said today it will shut 72 stores by the end of the month as it looks to recover from a sharp drop in profits. JJB's closure move is the latest blow to the UK high street after discount clothing chain Ethel Austin went into administration yesterday. The Merseyside-based company, which has 300 stores and employs around 2,800 people, is continuing to trade while Menzies Corporate Restructuring looks for parties interested in buying the business. With tighter credit conditions causing shoppers to review spending plans, the British Retail Consortium yesterday reported a sharper-than-expected fall in March sales.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:48 AM 6 Comments

Disturbing Degrees of Debt

Guardian: Trouble looms for Britons racking up 25bn problem loans

The number of people struggling with their debts looks set to double during 2008 as the clampdown on lending will limit their refinancing options, according to a report published today.

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:32 AM 2 Comments

Iran has received 75 percent of the proceeds from its oil sales in euros and the remaining 25 percent in the Japanese currency, yen.

IanCrane: Iran shifts oil sales away from dollar

In an interview with The Financial Times, Hojjatollah Ghanimifard said that over the past three months, Iran has received 75 percent of the proceeds from its oil sales in euros and the remaining 25 percent in the Japanese currency, yen. Could this be why the euro is holding up for now?

Posted by malct @ 08:26 AM 20 Comments

Inflation, devaluation what does it all mean???

Timesonline: Tempus: Home truths

Check out the comments at the bottom. Others are beginning to question GB's motives.

Posted by bystander @ 06:49 AM 6 Comments

It's perfectly simple, Gordon, you have a boom and then you get a slump. It happened in 1992, and it's happening now!

Times Online: Unemployment looms large as crunch bites deep

''...Mortgage lenders are continuing to raise their rates as fears grow of massive job losses in the City and on the high street.....And in the most dire forecast so far of the impact of the worldwide credit squeeze it was predicted that as many as 40,000 workers in the City could lose their jobs....'' The UK economy is in a very fragile state, we all knew it. All it took was a shock, and we will face a huge recession.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 05:37 AM 11 Comments

The latest statistics paint an even more pessimistic picture than many economists had predicted after a decade-long boom in construction hit the buffers in recent months.

times: Sun is setting on economic boom in Spain Spain's economy is slowing more sharply than expected after the implosion of the country's property bubble, triggering widespread gloom and rekindling talk that it could leave the single European currency.

The Spanish Government has announced plans to spend 10 billion (8 billion) a year in an economic stimulus package intended to soften the blow of a looming housing crisis

Posted by chris @ 02:57 AM 3 Comments

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The first 40,000 are not enough

Reuters: JP Morgan sees City losing 40,000 jobs

"Total job losses in London's City financial district are likely to hit 40,000 due to fallout from the U.S. subprime crisis and global credit crunch, analysts at JPMorgan said on Tuesday, doubling their previous estimates." The era of making money by shuffling paper is probably over. Financial types will have to make money from here by actually being smart and good at their jobs. Everyone knows that there is a "talent shortage" so let's speculate that this City cut-down will be at least as savage as the early 90's.

Posted by sneaker @ 11:38 PM 0 Comments

Lower interest rates could raise the already high prices of energy and food, which are already triggering riots in developing countries. In order to offset the inflationary impact of higher imported commodity prices, central banks in those countries may r

wallstreetjournal: It's time for the Federal Reserve to stop reducing the federal funds rate, because the likely benefit is small compared to the potential damage.

The rise in the U.S. inflation rate, and the adverse effects in emerging market countries, might be defensible if lower interest rates could significantly stimulate demand and reduce the risk of a deep recession. But under current conditions, reducing the federal funds interest rate from the current 2.25% by 50 or 75 basis points is not likely to do much to stimulate demand.

Posted by chris @ 10:54 PM 2 Comments

Yep - but being pushed has the same effect.

Guardian: I'm not quitting! Says Brown

PM will be shortly departing from T5, after losing all of the taxpayers money in a great automated debt baggage system under T5. When a PM starts having to make these kinda comments then it getting serious in the Labour party. It must be turmoil in the NULabour camp. Biggest Labour defeat in decades approaching.

Posted by waiting for the crash @ 10:14 PM 10 Comments

What options are available?

BBC: No easy answers to the credit crunch

"It is a fair bet that the bankers pressed for urgent help to resolve the credit crunch, and the prime minister stayed on the fence. But if the government did decide to take more action - what options does it have?"

Posted by alan @ 10:03 PM 5 Comments

Correction may become a crash - by the only man in politics that knows what he is talking about

Liberal Democrats : Vincent Cable: Real danger that house price correction may become a crash - Cable

Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor, Vince Cable said "It is clear that we are now seeing a major and long-overdue correction in the housing market. However, there is a real danger that with rising personal debt and high inflation, this correction may become a crash."

Posted by beachbum @ 09:42 PM 6 Comments

Should this old geeza be able to what he likes on his land? the council thinks otherwise

BBC News: 'Mole man's' 300,000 repair bill

A pensioner who created a labyrinth of tunnels under his house over 40 years has been forced to pay 300,000 for repairs carried out by a council.Excavations by William Lyttle, 77, who is also known as the mole man, almost caused the property in Mortimer Road, Hackney, east London, to collapse. It is understood Mr Lyttle inherited the 20-room four-storey detached property from his parents. The house, which is dilapidated, could be worth more than 1m if renovated. In 2001, his digging led to a 15ft-wide hole in the public footpath.

Posted by landedgentry @ 09:17 PM 5 Comments

More good news.....

MSN: Are we facing a perfect finincial storm?

The Perfect Storm was the name of a book about an extraordinary combination of meteorological events that produced a perfect storm of the coast of Newfoundland that sank a normally storm-proof fishing boat. Observers are becoming increasingly worried that an equally extraordinary combination of events is setting the scene for a perfect storm to hit financial markets. Even an objective look at what is happening is not reassuring.

Posted by tc @ 08:57 PM 1 Comments

Stick this in your pipe Darling ... Love Halifax

Times: Halifax raises mortgage rates by 0.5%

Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage provider, is set to increase rates on some of its most popular mortgage deals by 0.5 per cent from tomorrow, despite a quarter point reduction to the UK interest rate last week. From Wednesday, Halifax will increase one of its two-year fixed mortgage rate deals from 6.09 per cent to 6.59 per cent, adding 46 a month to borrowers' repayments on a 150,000 loan.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:57 PM 19 Comments

And what of that silver lining? Those homeowners who bought many years ago will be able to weather even a house price crash, given how far their property price has risen - unless, that is, they have increased the size of their mortgage through mortgage eq

TELEGRAPH UK: Mortgage malaise spells tough times ahead for middle-class Britain

The truth is that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has lost control of monetary policy. Before the credit crunch began, a cut in Bank rates would have been immediately reflected in mortgage rates.

Posted by chris @ 08:28 PM 0 Comments

The investment banks have so far avoided the ignominy of being the first to announce redundancies yet all have quietly leaked hundreds of staff. In the next few weeks, a big round of cuts are expected.

TELEGRAPH UK: UK economy faces tough times as credit crunch hits big City spenders

This weekend, new figures from the Centre of Economics and Business Research predict that nearly 30,000 jobs will be slashed over the next few months. Big banks including Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are expecting to cut more next week. Some commentators are expecting far more, perhaps even the worst slump since the early 1990s

Posted by chris @ 08:21 PM 0 Comments

Relocation relocation - sell that inner London pad (while you can) and head north

Shropshire Star: 1m-plus guide price for estate

On a lighter note..... Thinking of quitting the rat race? Look what you could buy in my local area....

Posted by rental john @ 07:53 PM 2 Comments

Express front page...

Daily Express: Prices soar at fastest rate for 17 years

Shame it's not house prices they're talking about this time :p

Posted by little professor @ 07:14 PM 10 Comments

My landlord wont happy about this

Standard: Average London home drops by 13,000 in a month

"More than 13,000 was wiped off the price of the average home in London in a single month, according to official figures. The 3.75 per cent fall - the biggest since government records began six years ago - saw prices drop from 351,315 in January to 338,109 in February" YIEEPIEEE

Posted by confused76 @ 06:20 PM 16 Comments

One Social Cost of Housing/Debt Based Money Supply

telegraph: Hundreds of schools sold to developers

Up to 300 schools have been effectively "lost forever" under Labour - with almost 200 more expected to be sold in coming years. The disclosure follows the publication of a Government-backed study which showed nearly half of all neighbourhoods have lost services such as surgeries, schools, post offices and shops over the past four years. Hundreds of primary schools have been sold off to housing developers in the past 10 years as local councils cash in on rising land prices.

Posted by malct @ 05:43 PM 12 Comments

Another Financial Instrument Bites the Dust

Bloomberg: Swaps Tied to Losses Became `Frankenstein's Monster' (Update1)

"What was intended as a way for lenders to protect against defaults spawned a market covering $45 trillion of bonds and loans where no one knows how much is traded and speculators who bet on deteriorating credit quality end up forcing that reality." First Warren Buffett compared derivatives to WMDs, then Investment Banks and submerged Dead Bodies floated up to our consciences, now Frankenstein's Monster - what next!

Posted by layers @ 05:31 PM 0 Comments

Foreclosures jump 57% in March

cnn: Foreclosures jump 57% in March

The housing bust continues to take its toll, with over 50,000 homes lost to foreclosure. Nevada once again leads the nation in defaults.

Posted by mark @ 05:27 PM 0 Comments

Heavily Edited ToryGraph onLine

telegraph: Wachovia to raise $7bn as crunch bites

Wachovia, the fourth largest US bank, is also set to cuts its dividend and axe jobs as part of a financial restructuring plan devised to combat the continuing credit crunch. This article is on the front page of the business section of today's Telegraph But the online version has been heavily edited eg online - The bank is the latest in to tap financial investors to bolster its capital position. printed - The bank is the latest in a long line to tap financial investors to bolster their capital position, and the first to report in a week that is expected to see tens of billions of dollars of write-offs as a string of banks report. it is much worse than this. Does anyone have an earlier version of the article before it was whitewashed? Worth buying the telegraph

Posted by malct @ 05:25 PM 3 Comments

A Portent for the UK?

New York Times: Retailing Chains Caught in a Wave of Bankruptcies

"The consumer spending slump and tightening credit markets are unleashing a widening wave of bankruptcies in American retailing, prompting thousands of store closings that are expected to remake suburban malls and downtown shopping districts across the country." The UK Retail and supporting industries will very likely suffer a similar fate with more potentially 1000s to go too. Cannot see how just about every industry will be touched by this typhoon of CR support. Maybe the over-shoot for HPC will be greater than 60% in some areas?

Posted by layers @ 04:36 PM 5 Comments

Bet the BBC stick this bit of news between dolly the cow and the largest poodle ever .

Bloomberg: Pound Falls to Record Versus Euro as U.K. Housing Slump Deepens

Britain's currency is set for a long-term decline against the euro and the yen as the nation's economic outlook deteriorates, said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Capital Markets in London. .says it all doesn't it. If speculative hedge funds have decided the pound will fall, it will fall, no matter what GB or Merv does.

Posted by bystander @ 03:43 PM 18 Comments

A slice of Northern Rock anyone??

Bloomberg: Bankruptcies Rise in Crunch for Firms `That Should Have Failed'

Amazing how the title doesn't read: "Bankruptcies Rise in Crunch for Banks `That Should Have Failed' " .......since banks aren't allowed to fail. A case of the haves and the haven't got a hope.

Posted by bystander @ 03:37 PM 0 Comments

have your say at bottom of page

reuters: Interest rate cut too little, too late?

Thursdays cut in interest rates should come as some relief to hard-pressed borrowers, under the cosh from the credit squeeze which has seen lenders raise their rates, cut maximum loan-to-values and tighten lending criteria. Those on tracker rates that mirror movements in the base rate will, of course, see a reduction in the amount of interest they pay. Others, though, are at the mercy of their lenders.

Posted by mark @ 03:07 PM 1 Comments

MGM Mirage to cut 440 jobs:

reuters: MGM Mirage to cut 440 jobs:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Las Vegas casino operator MGM Mirage (MGM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has said it is cutting 440 jobs, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, signaling the effect of a slowing economy on the casino industry.

Posted by mark @ 02:51 PM 0 Comments

Credit Crunch: 40k City Jobs To Go

Yahoo: Credit Crunch: 40k City Jobs To Go

Job losses in the City of London as a result of the international fallout from the credit crunch are expected to be around 40,000, according to analysts.

Posted by mark @ 02:39 PM 16 Comments

Just talking the talk....nothing more!

BBC News: Brown 'standing firm' on economy

We get ''...will not be diverted from the "right long-term decisions" for the UK's economy even if they are "unpopular in the short term...'' then ''...[the economy was] safe for them over the next few months..." talk talk talk.....

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:26 PM 4 Comments

Bail 'em out Brown trying to save his skin

Telegraph: Mortgage stakes high as Gordon Brown banks on crunch meeting

40bn is want the banks want. Yes, we (ie home owners with Gord on their side) have a constitional and human right to cheap money.

Posted by letthemfall @ 01:45 PM 11 Comments

Why sub-prime debt matters

MoneyWeek: Why sub-prime debt matters

If sub-prime debt is such a tiny part of global debt, why does its demise have such widespread consequences? Martin Spring explains why the economy is not going to bounce back any time soon, despite the recent market rally....

Posted by damien @ 01:33 PM 0 Comments

A bailout with taxpayers' money

Telegraph: David Cameron attacks Gordon Brown over credit crunch

Look at the smiley face on John Varley as he walks into no.10. John sold his Chelsea mansion at the peak, a year ago. Maybe another blogger can find the link. Why should we pay for the mess into which these i@iots have plunged the country?

Posted by confused76 @ 01:14 PM 0 Comments

House builder pulls out of scheme as it struggles to get credit

Property Week: Housing slump blamed as Edward Ware Homes pulls out of Gloucester scheme

Edward Ware Homes has pulled out of plans to redevelop the Greyfriars site in Gloucester blaming "adverse changes in the housing market"!

Posted by georgina peach @ 01:07 PM 0 Comments

So, forget political manipulation and banking corruption, its the hormones stupid.

BBC "NEWS?!?!?" Is this news?!: Hormones 'may fuel market crises'

Hormone surges among City traders could be partly responsible for driving "boom and bust" economics, say researchers. --- This is the worst propoganda I've seen yet. To think, we pay for this rubbish! - A whole spew of nonsense today on the Beeb.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:54 PM 9 Comments

UK inflation figures 'fudged' again for March!!

BBC News: UK inflation held steady in March

I am tired of reading about these 'fudged' figures, there is no way inflation is holding at 2.5%. This statement is ludicrous: 'The ONS said a sharp drop in furniture inflation offset a rise in air fares and transport costs.' So, I buy a sofa say every five years at 500 but spend 50 per week on petrol. Let's do the math, 52 weeks x 50 = 2600 per year or 13000 every five years vrs 500 every five years for a sofa. Its not rocket science ONS, if you cant work this out then you are obviously not fit for the job in hand IMHO!!

Posted by loneranger @ 12:48 PM 1 Comments

The Government's Solution? More Debt!

Guardian: Brown promises more help for borrowers

Downing Street today promised further action to help borrowers as new figures showed that house prices are falling at their fastest rate since records began 30 years ago.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:33 PM 8 Comments

Tip of the iceberg?

BBC: Estate agent offices to be closed

An estate agent has announced it is closing two branches in south west Wales and shrinking a third because of the credit crunch. But the fundamentals are good!....So why are the rats jumping ship?

Posted by rental john @ 12:15 PM 11 Comments

Front page of Guardian website

The Guardian: Market is a Pyramid Selling Scam

The British property market is a pyramid selling scam. It's a confidence trick that is falling to pieces. First-time buyers unite you have nothing to lose but a mortgage of five times your salary.

Posted by ladyb @ 12:06 PM 25 Comments

Brown blames, Oil producers, Banks, Commodity Prices, US Sub-Prime and The French (I made that last one up!)

Bloomberg: Brown, Bank of England Work to Ease Credit as House Prices Fall

Arch Bogeyman Steven Crawshaw: "The Council of Mortgage Lenders says the tightening of the U.K. mortgage market can be reversed if the Bank of England injects more cash into financial markets and if the Treasury supports homeowners behind in mortgage payments. Underpinning those borrowers in serious and short-term financial difficulty to help minimize the level of repossessions is a clear spend-to-save policy,'' Steven Crawshaw, chairman of the lobby group that represents 157 lending companies, said in a speech on April 11. ``Yes, it has a short term cost. But it delivers tangible longer term returns from helping people.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:50 AM 12 Comments

More fundamentalsound institutions

Telegraph: B&B and A&L unsustainable

Bradford & Bingley may have successfully batted away suggestions that it was plotting a rights issue but this has done nothing at all to stem concerns about its funding lines. Today leading broker JP Morgan argues that both B&B and fellow mortgage bank Alliance & Leicester are unlikely to be sustainable business models in the longer term.

Posted by holding out @ 11:32 AM 0 Comments

The outlook for house prices is the worst in 30 years

MoneyWeek: The outlook for house prices is the worst in 30 years

While everyone has been focusing on the credit crunch, the real economy is taking a kicking, as high street sales and house price fall. But there are also still some interesting investment opportunities out there, says John Stepek.

Posted by damien @ 11:29 AM 0 Comments

Stick or twist ?

5 Live: Don't move!

Recently, quite a few people have taken time out of their day to bark the following at me: "You're buying a house?!!?? You must be mad!!!! The big move happens this week. The reason I'm happy to go ahead with it is that sometimes, regardless of what MIGHT happen, if you're looking for a home rather than a short term investment, then you think differently about it. I bought the place from an investor keen to offload it because he feared a crash. If that crash comes, I'll just sit it out and hope my "house doctoring" makes it an attractive sale years down the line. If you're selling or buying, tell us about your situation.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:06 AM 15 Comments

Got to pick a pocket or two, or threee...

Firstrung: Mortgage fees double over past 12 months as best fixed rate deals have average fees of 1,478

Application fees on the best buy fixed-rate mortgage deals have nearly doubled in the past year, analysis from mform.co.uk shows. It is urging borrowers who will have to shop around for a new deal to focus on the true cost of their loan taking into account fees as well as the initial monthly payment... With up to 116,000 people each month coming to the end of their fixed rate mortgage deals, many of them are likely to be in for a shock when it comes to choosing a new mortgage because the level of fees charged has risen substantially since they took out their last deal. Over the last year alone, the fees on the five most competitive two year fixes have moved from an average 999 to 1,478. And for three-year deals the average fees have moved from just 578 to 1,132 now.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:03 AM 1 Comments

France - Inflation up 0.8% in March, 3.2% YoY

Yahoo France: Une inflation de 0,8% en mars, et de 3,2% sur un an

Euro gained 15% of value compared to the Pound in the last year but surprisingly the French inflation (and most of the Euro zone countries) is worse than the British one. Some cynical commentators could hint that GB should give a few economic lessons to the French... not... Sorry for the article in French. It doesn't give that much information appart from the fact it's the worse inflation in France since November 1991. Anyone for buying a property in Normandy?

Posted by olivier @ 10:34 AM 0 Comments

Trailing, Experimental Govt. Index Sees 6.7% rise YoY (!!)

DCLG: House Price Index Headline Findings - February 2008

Yep - you read right. As of Feb-08 The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) reckons prices were up 6.7% from a year earlier. It does show a fall from Jan-08 to Feb-08 of 1.6% though.

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 10:14 AM 8 Comments

PDF of RICS Report

RICS: RICS Housing Market Survey March 2008

Interesting Comments From the EAs

Posted by wdbeast @ 10:13 AM 4 Comments

Inflation unexpectedly holds steady in March

Reuters: Inflation unexpectedly holds steady in Mar

The main inflation rate unexpectedly held steady in March, official data showed on Tuesday, suggesting strong price pressures further up the economic pipeline have yet to be passed on to consumers. The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent on the month, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 2.5 percent. Analysts had expected a monthly rise of 0.6 percent for an annual rate of 2.6 percent.

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 09:52 AM 28 Comments

End of the road...

Telegraph: House prices decline at record levels

''...use prices are experiencing their most widespread decline since records began because of the fallout from the credit crisis, a report released today shows....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:04 AM 32 Comments

''A. significant crash in prices remained unlikely '' - I'll wait and see, thank you!

BBC News: Housing gloom 'worst in 30 years'

''...Confidence in the UK housing market fell in March to its lowest point in 30 years, according to a closely watched survey of property surveyors. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (Rics) said that 78.5% more surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices in March....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:00 AM 9 Comments

"Brown meets leading bankers as fears grow over mortgage lending freeze" - Shouldn't Brown have had that meeting, um, maybe in 2003, when it was clear that IR's were beginning their upwards rout?!?!

Guardian: House prices fall at fastest rate since 1978

House prices are falling at their fastest rate since records began 30 years ago as the mortgage lending freeze continues to undermine the housing market, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says today.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 02:29 AM 20 Comments

So far, only a handful of lenders have said they will reduce their SVR

Independent: Darling embarrassed as Northern Rock fails to pass on rate cut

Darling, you don't be embarrassed, be afraid of walking the streets of London. That 110bn you gambled was a big chunk of this country's future. Shame on you.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 02:17 AM 3 Comments

Blimey, and she looks like such a sensible lady, that's one expensive 1bed flat!

International Herald Tribune: U.S. housing collapse spreads overseas

"We know we're already in negative equity," said Emma Linnane, a 31-year-old university administrator. She bought a cozy, one-bedroom apartment in the Dublin suburbs with her fianc, Paul Colgan, in May 2006, at the peak of the market. They paid 365,000, or $575,000 - at least $100,000 more than it would fetch today.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 01:44 AM 18 Comments

Stop the bailout

NationalBubble: Stop the bailout

This site is dedicated to stopping the government's planned bailout of the housing market. A bailout requires responsible Americans to pay for the acts of greedy bankers, mortgage brokers, flippers, and over-extended homeowners. In other words, the government wants you to pay for the blunders of others who knew, or should have known, better. The UK needs a similar effort before Crash Gordon and Alistair Darling head further down this route

Posted by dave @ 01:10 AM 3 Comments

Investors failed to read the small print and are getting burned

Financial Times: Tranche warfare breaks out over CDOs

Sorry it's a bit technical. --- "Downgrades of some of the bonds backing CDOs are triggering little-noticed event of default clauses, which often allow senior noteholders to take control of all the income. Senior noteholders can then accelerate payments from the CDO, which leaves other investors with the prospect of no interest payments for months or years, and also gives them no say in whether or not the instrument should be liquidated. Investors agreed to terms which give senior noteholders control following certain triggers because they thought these were never going to happen. The fights between tranche owners is another example of how little attention investors paid to the exact terms and conditions in the rush to complete CDO deals."

Posted by drewster @ 12:56 AM 3 Comments

Economics and oil

theoildrum.com: Gail Tverberg's Talk: Expected Economic Impact of an Energy Downturn

Comments (46) Well, I disagree that oil is purely going up for reasons of peak oil. It is definitely partly a result of printing dollars. BUT, the peak oil issue means that oil will continue to attract hot money, because potential gap between supply and demand make it a safer investment, and that is rare in today's climate. Hense, it takes on a similar aspect to Gold. Scarcity stops corporations and governments from flooding the market to lower prices. Trust markets, not governments!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:52 AM 4 Comments

Comedy piece in the FT

Financial Times: For Gord's sake, why wont banks lend to each other?

Gordon says to bankers: "As I see it, were in the same leaking boat. People accuse you of having fuelled the financial crisis by overplaying your hand during the good times and now theyre losing confidence in your ability to sort it out. Well, join the club. Where you have investors, I have voters. Theres a limit to how long I can bang on to the press about how I remain vigilant and am never complacent, before somebody points out I could do that without leaving my bedroom. Why should I have a quiet word with the Bank of England about kick-starting the mortgage-backed securities market, or lean on the Financial Services Authority to go easy on regulation, if all youre going to do is hoard the surpluses from interest rate cuts or use them to reward shareholders?"

Posted by drewster @ 12:39 AM 2 Comments

Monday, April 14, 2008

Profits at Bear Stearns down 79%

BBC News: Profits at Bear Stearns down 79%

Beleaguered US investment bank Bear Stearns has revealed that its net profit fell 79% in the three months until the end of February. In the process of being bought by JP Morgan Chase after its near collapse, Bear Stearns made a net profit of $115m (58m) in its fiscal first quarter. Net revenues at Bear Stearns declined 40%, again compared to the same time a year earlier, to $1.48bn. Expected job cuts

Posted by stew @ 11:42 PM 0 Comments

Even Jonathan Maitland has given up BTL

ITV: Flat Broke

Title says it all really.

Posted by captain sensible @ 11:37 PM 5 Comments

Rates predicted to be put on hold for Australia

Every recession has a silver lining

BBC Front page: Tesco tipped to see profit up 10%

Tesco is expected to announce a 10% rise in annual profits when it releases its latest yearly results on Tuesday. With between 78,000 - 3,000,000 homeowner facing negative equity (rough figures depending on political adjenda), the mother of all monopolies ramps up the pressure on joe public in order to achieve an even better balance sheet than the previous megalithic extorsionate year. Can anyone tame the beast??????

Posted by damocles vs sisyphus @ 11:19 PM 1 Comments

If You Think You've Got Problems

CNN News: Riots, Instability Spread as Food Prices Skyrocket

There are riots of food supply and prices from Bangladesh to Haiti, to Egypt, and an accompanying discussion among the "food ministers" what has caused low production and poor supply, especially to poorer nations. Some say that shifting farming to ethanol producing products to outrun increase in oil prices is to blame. Others say it's the climate changes and drastic weather conditions that have wiped out entire crops. Whatever it is, Famine is here to roost and looking uglier every day. What do you do if a kilo of rice costs half your daily income? Experts say this has set back the global fight against poverty at least seven years already. And prices in some regions have escalated 75% in two months. Terrifying.

Posted by indiablue19 @ 10:55 PM 1 Comments

Foxtons staff "left"

London Evening Standard: Home sales slump 'will shut down 4,000 estate agents'

Tony & Guy will be suffering next ... "New figures have revealed that dozens of staff have quit jobs at Foxtons, one of London's most lucrative property shops. At least 63 staff left the company in February alone following poor sales figures." And still, they're trying to break "road ceiling prices". The simple bunch just won't learn. Like a fat old punch drunk boxer.

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:54 PM 7 Comments

National Landlords Association - BTL mortgage cash back offer

Mortgagestrategy: NLA launches free sourcing service

The National Landlords Association has launched a service that allows all landlords to source competitive buy-to-let mortgages from the most popular lenders. The free service, NLA Mortgages, is designed for property investors looking to expand their portfolios or remortgage current properties. For example, a buy-to-let mortgage of 250,000 would earn 625. Any NLA members wishing to remortgage five or more properties at the same time will receive a guaranteed 0.275% of the loan value. Therefore, a remortgage portfolio of 2m would attract a cashback of 5,500.

Posted by jack c @ 09:49 PM 12 Comments

Not Just an American Bubble Bursts

The New York Times: Housing Woes in U.S. Spread Around Globe

House price crash America, Ireland, UK, Spain,.....

Posted by baudot @ 08:52 PM 0 Comments

Huge foreign debt, rampant inflation, tumbling currency. Sounds familiar ?.

Times Online: Iceland puts the freeze on krona speculators as economy boils over

For anyone that can't remember 15% interest rates here's a sobering article.

Posted by baudot @ 08:49 PM 0 Comments

Uses lots of interesting graphs to demonstrate that the Fed is directly responsible for the boom and bust. This is what one would expect from a Moneterist organisation, but most HPC bloggers would tend to agree, I think.

Mises Institute: Did the Fed cause the housing bubble?

The connection between these moves (interest rate cuts) by the central bank, versus the pumping up and popping of the housing bubble, seemed to be more than just a coincidence. On the contrary, it looked like a classic example of the Misesian theory of the business cycle, in which artificially low interest rates lead to malinvestments, which then require a recession to correct.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:38 PM 27 Comments

More Jingle Mail

MSN: Homeowners who just walk away

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently estimated that about 45% of foreclosures in 2007 were on private, near-prime or government-backed mortgages. And that means plenty of people who thought they were fine are facing catastrophe, never expecting that their homes would be worth less than the purchase price." These are probably the true victims here. I don't see any bail out for these people though! Obviously no rich friends in high places.

Posted by renting2 @ 08:34 PM 0 Comments

Tonight 8:30pm : Feeling the Pinch

BBC: Panorama: Feeling the Pinch

BBC Business presenter Declan Curry meets one family hit by the credit crunch who faced with a mountain of debt are now struggling to sell their home.

Posted by doomwatch @ 06:11 PM 14 Comments

Reality Check in Manchester Residential Market

Crains Manchester Business: Vulture fund will rent nests to key workers

This is an article that describes how the Residential Ventures Fund (www.acorncapital.co.uk) is assisting Key Workers to rent affordable property in the North of England. We are trying to create some good out of the lunacy that has driven the residential market in the North of England;a market that is leaving a lot of pre-crash investors nursing some big losses.

Posted by philip coen @ 05:29 PM 0 Comments

Stability and Prudence. Brown's Housing Boom gone Bust

Evening Standard: Home loans: it's looking even worse

Today Gordon Brown declared that "every effort of mine, every day that I wake up" is about steering the economy away from recession.At every point whenever there were world downturns, people ask the question, can the British economy come through this? I understand that people ask the question. But we are on the side of the home owner and business owner."

Posted by yoyo1 @ 03:55 PM 29 Comments

Vince Cable Video - Speaking common sense?

BBC: Banks to be 'held responsible'

4 minute long video. VC speaking common sense, rather odd considering he is a politician.

Posted by geed @ 03:52 PM 9 Comments

Check out the likely London losers

Evening Standard: The negative equity map

The London postcodes at greatest risk from the housing crisis can be revealed today. Tens of thousands of home owners across the capital will be plunged into negative equity this year if property prices fall by 20 per cent.

Posted by what_goes_up @ 02:35 PM 0 Comments

Can we call it a Conspiracy yet?!

Newsweek: What Power Looks Like

"...Geithner said the Fed brought together the leaders of the world's 14 major financial firms, from five countries, representing 95 percent of all the activity in global markets" "...Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein "jokingly called them 'the 14 families,' like in 'The Godfather'," says Geithner "...6,000 will continue to play the greatest role of any group on the planet in defining our times." Well, I'm sure they'll only have our best interests at heart!

Posted by layers @ 02:16 PM 0 Comments

Property auctioneer sets up special repossessions team to cope with expected demand!

property week: Savills prepares for rise in repossessions

Savills has set up a new receivership team ahead of an expected increase in the number of commercial property owners defaulting on loans. Repossessions have always been a large part of residential property auctions, but they are rarer in the commercial sphere.

Posted by georgina peach @ 01:23 PM 0 Comments

Crunch Time For Brown As Crisis Grows

Yahoo: Crunch Time For Brown As Crisis Grows

The Conservatives have turned up the heat on Gordon Brown over the economic crisis, saying his reputation for handling the UK's finances is "in tatters". Their attack came as a poll suggested 68% of voters are "not confident at all" in the Government's ability to deal with the present turmoil. The Financial Times/Harris survey also found the Prime Minister was less trusted on the issue than any other major Western European leader.

Posted by mark @ 01:15 PM 9 Comments

Prices down 10% according to Hamptons

The Economist: Housing Market: The bubble bursts

When even the venerable Economist says that "the fall in house prices may be both deep and prolonged" you know it's bad news. Depending on your perspective, of course... :-)

Posted by dark_horse @ 01:01 PM 22 Comments

Prospects for markets

JPMorgan: How will the crisis change markets?

- Not strictly news, but none-the-less relevant! The financial crisis will affect market structure and pricing for at least a decade. After major crises, market participants focus intensely on not making the same mistakes again. The crisis zone becomes lower-risk for a long time, even as investors move leverage elsewhere such as EM and commodities. The current crisis results from 3 sources of excessive risk taking credit in housing, leverage, and maturity transformation. Maturity transformation outside the US regulated banking world reached $5.9 trillion last year, or 40% of total bank deposits. Central banks extension of liquidity to broker-dealers and securitised world is permanent, and will be followed by regulatory control. Bank incentives to...

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 12:56 PM 5 Comments

Shame really, they provide such a valuable service (not!)

thisismoney.co.uk: Fear of closure for 4,000 estate agents

A third of Britain's estate agents could be forced to close this year as the number of house sales plunge. Predictions made by the biggest network of independent estate agencies, Movewithus, estimates that around 4,000 of the country's 12,000 property businesses will shut by December.

Posted by landedgentry @ 12:29 PM 9 Comments

At the Credit Crunch Coalface: credit pushers et al finding life tough

Times Online: Credit Crunch Means Longer Hours, Fewer Deals, More Stress

Article in the Times interviews various parties to the housing boom to see how the credit crunch is impacting on their business. The bank manager says: "My main frustration is that people dont always fully understand the issues and tend to become worried by headlines. We have seen requests from savers to split their balances across providers so that they are separately covered by Financial Services Compensation Scheme but we try to reassure them that it is unnecessary". Yeah, sure it isn't. My sympathy is short - except for the poor debt counsellor who is experiencing record volumes of calls for help.

Posted by an bearin bui @ 12:18 PM 0 Comments

A few valid points

Times Online: There is no crisis. Buying your own home is a luxury, not a right

"This is another way of saying the best thing the government can do is leave the housing market well alone. The house price bubble is in large measure politicians doing. To that extent the current shock can be laid at their door."

Posted by paul @ 11:53 AM 17 Comments

Run away!!!

BBC: Bank denies cash-raising reports

Bradford & Bingley has denied reports that it is planning to go to the market to raise extra cash to see it through the credit crisis. Bradford & Bingley is Britain's biggest buy-to-let lender - says it all really.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:44 AM 4 Comments

HP Crash on the way!!!!

New York Times: Housing Woes in U.S. Spread around globe

Dublin apartment worth $100000- c50000 less and dropping !

Posted by johnnyp @ 11:35 AM 7 Comments

What Ikea can teach us about boom and bust

MoneyWeek: What Ikea can teach us about boom and bust

Recent comments from Ikea's president confirm what most of us have known all along - you can't eliminate the business cycle. To get rid of the bust, you also have to get rid of the boom. And as booms make everyone feel rich, no one wants to do that

Posted by damien @ 11:16 AM 4 Comments

Raw material inflation tops 20%

BBC News: Producer prices at 17yr high

This is the early warning data on inflation that the BOE takes very seriously. Cutting rates further will be very hard to justify with these stats in the background.

Posted by uncle tom @ 11:14 AM 5 Comments

Great Perspective from NYT on HPC across europe and how it will be worse than the US

New York Times: Housing Woes in U.S. Spread Around Globe

The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, with real estate prices swooning from the Irish countryside and the Spanish coast to Baltic seaports and even parts of northern India. This synchronized global slowdown, which has become increasingly stark in recent months, is hobbling economic growth worldwide, affecting not just homes but jobs as well. In Ireland, Spain, Britain and elsewhere, housing markets that soared over the last decade are falling back to earth. Property analysts predict that some countries, like this one, will face an even more wrenching adjustment than that of the United States, including the possibility that the downturn could become a wholesale collapse.

Posted by crashosaurus @ 11:00 AM 1 Comments

Where's that Spring bounce gone : April Asking prices down

home.co.uk: Sellers Begin to Price to Market

"The 2008 Spring-bounce in the UK housing market is conspicuous by its absence. Market sentiment is deteriorating along with consumer confidence. Since the tippingpoint in August 2007, mortgage credit for buyers has been increasingly difficult to secure as more and more deals are withdrawn from the market. Understandably, home sellers are therefore becoming increasingly desperate to sell and a minority have begun to make small cuts in their asking prices, although most properties are still priced according to last years credit market."

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:11 AM 6 Comments

US and EU.....mistakes and errors again?

The Telegraph: Our global warming rage lets global hunger grow

America - the world's food superpower - will divert 18pc of its grain output for ethanol this year, chiefly to break dependency on oil imports. It has a 45pc biofuel target for corn by 2015. The EU has targeted a 5.75pc biofuel share by 2010

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:07 AM 27 Comments

You have to feel sorry for these people... not a chance!

EveningStandard: I bought at the top of the market - and I don't regret it

"So was I mad to buy when prices looked set to tumble? There are times when I lie awake in bed listening to the neighbourhood crackheads baying like animals and I think I've lost my marbles. That's when I resent the 2,500 a month I have to fork out to live across the street from them. But there was one good reason to buy into a housing market at boiling point - to stop renting and start looking out for my own future instead of paying into someone else's pension fund" AHAH AHAHHAHH AHAH AHH HAHHAAH HAHHAHA

Posted by confused76 @ 09:28 AM 34 Comments

If only teh UK included the same inflationary measures - this would all be someone elses problem

Forex Factory: Finnish March inflation accelerates to 3.9 percent

"HELSINKI (Thomson Financial) - Finnish consumer prices rose 3.9 percent in March, accelerating from February's 3.7 percent, official figures from Statistics Finland show. The agency said inflation was driven mainly by the rising house prices, rents and energy costs." .....look and learn GB, look and learn

Posted by bystander @ 08:57 AM 0 Comments

This could be a laugh! - Highly significant for BTL too.

Telegraph: House prices face threat from wave of buy-to-let selling

Buy-to-let landlords will have to raid their savings and inject extra capital into their homes, under an obscure clause in their mortgage contracts, if house prices continue to fall. Housing experts have long worried that a flood of buy-to-let properties on the market could have a devastating effect on house prices. The International Monetary Fund is already predicting a 10pc fall this year. Under the terms of the contract, if a 100,000 home with an 85,000 mortgage falls in value by 10pc the landlord has to find another 8,500 to maintain the lender's maximum 85pc loan-to-value rate - even though there is still 5,000 of equity in the property.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:52 AM 8 Comments

Wilson Bowden Developments up for sale again

FT.COM: Barratt eyes sale of property division

"Barratt, one of the UKs biggest housebuilders, is considering the sale of its commercial property division in order to reduce the debt incurred in the 2.2bn ($4.3bn) acquisition of Wilson Bowden last year.". So things are really that bad !!!

Posted by jj @ 08:11 AM 0 Comments

Gross deception by BoE

Market Oracle: Bank of England Applies Eggertsson Theory to Interest Cut

"The BofE is encouraging higher inflation (by cutting rates and raising rhetoric) to offset deflationary symptoms that they do not wish to acknowledge in the statement or wish to have discussed openly. This is an attempt to front run deflation. " "I'll put it this way. If you feel you need to cut rates, engendering an inflationary expectation and are then relying on a recession or slowdown to keep inflation in check at a lower level, you are not really expecting inflationary forces in the medium term. " -I just converted 2500 sterling to yen, on reflection this was a bad time to do that.

Posted by stillthinking @ 07:35 AM 5 Comments

Inflation spike

Bloomberg: UK Inflation Rate Probably Rose to 11 Month High in March

Some inflation data with comments that the spike is soon to end i.e. before the end of this year.

Posted by stillthinking @ 06:52 AM 0 Comments

Rush to get out?

Canada Immigration: Visa Processing Times

The world average to process a visa application to Canada is 6 months for the fastest 30% of applicants. For the UK this is a whopping 26 weeks. Seems to me that the only explanation for this is a spike in demand, because the application is in english after all, so we should not take 3 times longer than Nairobi or Islamabad. Bottlenecked due to demand.

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:14 AM 5 Comments

This is huge!! BTL will have to inject extra capital into their homes, under an obscure clause in their mortgage contracts

BREAKING NEWS: House prices face threat from wave of buy-to-let selling

Both Bradford & Bingley and HBOS-owned Birmingham Midshires, the two largest buy-to-let mortgage providers, each with 20pc of the market, require customers to top up their initial deposits if falling house prices mean the size of their mortgage rises above 85pc of the value of the home. THIS IS F@*KING GREAT NEWS!!

Posted by confused76 @ 01:07 AM 27 Comments

Yet another mis-selling story... rip off Britain!

ThisIs Money: Equity release pensioners debt shock

He took out a drawdown mortgage with Prudential in February. This lets him take out 98,000 in stages over the next 25 years against the value of his 300,000 house. Nick is using the money to renovate his house, rewiring it and installing heating. 'I will draw a few thousand pounds each year to help pay living costs between now and when I turn 65 and can collect my State pension,' he says. 'It would be different if I had to think about children or a family and preserving an inheritance for them. I understand how this debt is going to grow rapidly.' Bankrupt Britain!!

Posted by confused76 @ 01:04 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, April 13, 2008

The conspiracy people blame this lot for the credit crunch

BBC News: Bilderberg: The ultimate conspiracy theory

"The idea that a shadowy clique is running the world is nothing new. For hundreds of years people have believed the world is governed by a cabal of Jews. "Shouldn't we expect that the rich and powerful organise things in their own interests. It's called capitalism."

Posted by sneaker @ 11:24 PM 0 Comments

Get the Plywood Out

Times: Caught in the crunch 4,000 estate agents could be forced to close

As the B of E prepares to accept 'a wider range of assets as security for loans' in return for easier and longer loans. The Times reports that of the estimated 12,000 estate agents in the UK, at least 4,000 will close by next year.

Posted by enuii @ 11:20 PM 10 Comments

Something for the masses

Mail On Sunday: Credit crunch forces Anthea and Grant to cancel their summer ball

"...in a telling illustration of how deeply the credit crunch is biting, Anthea Turner and Grant Bovey yesterday admitted the financial crisis had forced them to cancel this year's summer charity ball." "Mr Bovey, 46, who owns a property development business called Imagine Homes, which depends on the highly volatile buy-to-let market, yesterday denied that he and his 47-year-old wife had been personally hit by the economic downturn."

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:51 PM 9 Comments

Scotland bankruptcies set to rise as laws simplify writeoffs north of the border

FT: Scots to face bankruptcy explosion

Scotland will face a flood of consumers declaring themselves bankrupt as newly introduced laws allow people to write off their debts for just 100, experts have warned. With many Scots struggling to cope with the impact of the credit crunch, experts predict a deluge of personal bankruptcies in the coming months. Nick Robinson, chairman of the Scottish Independent Insolvency Practitioners, said while the new rules on bankruptcy were well-intentioned, they were likely to be "exploited" by many facing a mountain of personal debt.

Posted by jack c @ 09:41 PM 3 Comments

The cat is out the bag: Expect house price falls to accelerate

MSN Money: House Price Falls In Your Area

Falling house prices, so long predicted, are now with us in earnest. According to the Nationwide house price index, prices have been falling for five months, and the annual rate of increase is down to 1.1% in March, the lowest figure since 1996. However, we should expect price falls to accelerate over the next year or two as a slowing economy and a tighter mortgage market make themselves felt on prices that are already high relative to incomes. Except for the bottom end of the market, none of that will be changed by the recent quarter point rate cut by the Bank of England.

Posted by matt @ 08:40 PM 0 Comments

First article in this week's Spectator

The Spectator: Browns Debt to Society

Good whole-page first article from Saturday's edition.... "A German economist visiting Britain was recently said to have declared himself baffled that a report about rising house prices was deemed to be good news. In Germany, he retorted, inflation in house prices, like inflation in food or energy prices, would be considered quite the opposite... Only now are [the UK voters] discovering just how much of their economy is on a precarious edifice built on fatal foundations of debt."

Posted by pendulum @ 08:40 PM 12 Comments

It's not that bad, no really, it's all fine.

Times: Unaffordable house prices and the credit crunch

Contrary to popular belief, it was only in the second half of last year that house prices in Britain became unaffordable. Even then, according to the Lombard Street Research index, which looks at prices in terms of mortgage rates as well as household income, the problem was not as great as a decade and a half ago. A correction of about 10% over two years should be enough to make them affordable again. It should not take too long before the banks regain the willingness and ability to lend. Despite the credit crunch, mortgage rates here are far from the double-digit levels of the early 1990s. Another crucial difference concerns the labour market, which has been fairly resilient so far.

Posted by little professor @ 07:46 PM 32 Comments

Short term weakness?????

Bloomberg: Pound Declines Against Euro Amid Rate Speculation

Can someone please tell me what the ECB use to measure inflationary pressure and how it is dfferent for the BoE? I cannot see how/ why inflation in Club Med is so much higher than in the UK when the euro is so strong, surely basic economics would show that a weaker currency woud infact mean that The UK would have much higher inflationary pressure than the Eurozone, or does the ECB include HPI?????? AN EXPLANATION WOULD BE WELCOME.

Posted by bystander @ 06:40 PM 17 Comments

B&B - Lets see, how can we dress this up!!!

BBC News: Bank denies cash-raising reports

Bradford & Bingley has denied reports that it is planning to go to the market to raise extra cash to see it through the credit crisis.....Hang on I seem to remember another bank saying they weren't in trouble, ahh yes I remember it was an little known outfit called NORTHERN ROCK

Posted by mr cobblepot @ 05:07 PM 0 Comments

Philippine property firms look closer to home for sales

reuters: Philippine property firms look closer to home for sales

"My salary is limited so I placed the house on hold," said 31-year-old Paz who has been working in Hong Kong for nearly 8 years. "But the longer I'm putting it on hold, the more that prices of construction materials are rising."

Posted by mark @ 04:36 PM 2 Comments

Proof that you cannot fool all the people, all the time

Telegraph: Record plunge in support for Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown's personal support among voters has fallen faster and further than that of any Prime Minister since political polling began, it has emerged. His personal rating is now minus 37, down from plus 48 in August, a plunge even more severe than that suffered by Neville Chamberlain in 1940 after Germany's invasion of Norway.

Posted by uncle chris @ 04:21 PM 18 Comments

Government fiddles while the price of houses burns

Observer: Government fiddles while the price of houses burns

The baleful 'For Sale' signs do not carry a health warning, but they should. House prices can go down as well as up. And however smart you are, the impact is universal, despite everybody hoping that somehow, someone else will suffer the pain.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:29 PM 18 Comments

Matt's on a roll...

Telegraph: Matt

Yet another little classic..

Posted by uncle tom @ 02:25 PM 3 Comments

Crash isn't from easy credit.

Guardian: 1929 Once More

This article outlines an argument that easy credit did not cause the house price crash but that -both- were consequences of earlier financial liberalisation of the banking sector in the 1970s. Equally this presents (to me easily pursuaded as usual) that government and consumer profligacy were absolutely necessary to postpone the crisis of deflation. Stands out also in the bold statement that inflation is currently very low and accordingly debt payments are very high. Interesting views on the slow process to the current situation.

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:13 PM 5 Comments

Global inflation really kicks in, and the little people feel it first

BBC News: IMF head gives food price warning

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that hundreds of thousands of people will face starvation if food prices keep rising. Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that social unrest from continuing food price inflation could cause conflict. There have been food riots recently in a number of countries, including Haiti, the Philippines and Egypt.

Posted by khayl @ 01:45 PM 0 Comments

Bradford & Bingley preparing a rights issue

Gordon Brown to meet banks in summit over mortgage crisis: Telegraph

This is the first UK bank preparing to resort to a rights issue, following Swiss and American banks. And as we like a little schadenfreude: ' "The persistence of the credit crunch and downturns in the UK and world economy signal that the City will suffer worse job losses than during the dotcom crash," the CEBR will say.' All that "talent".

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:44 PM 8 Comments

Set those recorders - features HPC's Jonathan Davis

ITV1: Flat Broke: Tonight

Jonathan Maitland leads an investigation into the risks involved in buying houses with the intention of letting them out. The reporter learns that many landlords are struggling financially and unable to find either tenants or buyers for their properties, leaving many threatened with bankruptcy. Monday 14th April on ITV 1 from 8:00pm to 8:30pm

Posted by jack c @ 12:10 PM 10 Comments

Writing exclusively for the News of the World, the PM says openness would calm the turmoil that has seen mortgage payments soar and house prices plummet

News of The World: Banks must come clean - Plea over credit crunch

Gordon Brown today calls on High Street banks to own up to the scale of their bad debts to halt the credit crunch. Mr Brown writes: "If the world's largest banks could come together quickly and agree as a group to come clean about the potential bad debts they face, we could reduce the uncertainty and risk they face and restore confidence back into the markets." He is promising extra government help if banks and other lenders come clean. His intervention shows the financial crisis is fast becoming a political one too.

Posted by jack c @ 11:38 AM 17 Comments

Davis Smith has a go at us

Times: Gloom reigns but world is not about to go pop

Since the credit crisis broke there has been a respectable position, now taken by most economists, that this would be the trigger for a significant house-price correction. I certainly considered that in August-September. We should distinguish that, of course, from the obsessives you can find in the internets darker corners, who have been wrongly predicting an imminent crash for years. But, without shooting the messenger, it seems to me that Halifaxs figure gave us an object lesson in how not to interpret statistics. When a number is so far away from the norm, we should treat it as odd. The statistics may have been distorted by home information packs (Hips), smaller samples than usual, or by the lenders own valuation policies.

Posted by little professor @ 09:44 AM 26 Comments

loks like the banking crisis has only just begun

timesonline.co.uk: US banks reveal FRESH $15 BILLION loss

the figures are just unbelievable ....mind blowing in fact...where will it all end????

Posted by taffee @ 08:50 AM 27 Comments

A Voice From the Past Coments on the Crisis

Telegraph: Alistair Darling is not to blame for the pain to come

Norman Lamont: "A city fund manager of my acquaintance tracks the number of stories in newspapers about the economy as an indicator of turning points in the economy. His graph must have had a sharp spike in recent weeks."

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:30 AM 12 Comments

HPC.co.uk gets a mention

Guardian: Living in a bubble didn't make us rich

Amid the horror-struck headlines at the prospect of a substantial fall, we are in danger of missing an important point: high property prices are not a good thing. Most homebuyers have not genuinely become richer as a result of the runaway property market. But there has been relatively little outcry because the property boom has made homeowners feel richer. While they could borrow against the equity in their houses, people have been able to shrug off rising tax bills, utility costs and paltry pay rises; their lifestyles have decoupled from their earnings. You only have to dip into websites such as Housepricecrash.co.uk to get a sense of the resentment and exclusion felt by those who cannot afford to buy.

Posted by little professor @ 01:31 AM 10 Comments

Cancelled? No, postponed until 2050

Mail: Credit crunch forces Anthea and Grant to cancel their summer ball

"We didn't feel it would be fair to ask people to donate huge amounts of money at a time like this. It's nothing to do with our financial situation. We spend a lot of money on the event every year but there is no financial crisis for us. I am sitting in our 5m chateau in Megeve in the Alps right now. I will sue anyone who says that Imagine Homes is in financial difficulty. We are 20 per cent owned by HBOS and we have huge profits that have yet to materialise. AHHAHAH We have huge tower blocks in Canary Wharf and various other sites that will generate huge amounts of money. AHAHHAHA difficult disagree with such solid arguments, but read about this pr*ck's losses at the end of the article

Posted by confused76 @ 12:44 AM 13 Comments

Why bail out the property portfolio holders who created the bubble in the first place??!!!!

BBC News: Banks must pass on cuts - Darling

"If you can pass on those interest rate reductions, if you can help homeowners, help businesses, that will help all of us get through a very difficult time." Muppett!! How can our great financial political leader not see that the bubble needs deflating. Portfolio owners are in it for the long term anyway according to most daily rags, so let them sweat it our for a while. Is it me or does anyone else think it scandalous that, we the tax payers should continue to bail out these greedy, self centred idiots! I can't listen to this rubbish any longer!!!!!

Posted by loneranger @ 12:05 AM 2 Comments

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Predicted by LVMReader over 2.5 years ago...

Bloomberg: Largest U.S. Municipal Bankruptcy Looms in Alabama

There is a solution to this - it is very simple and UK Central Government has been aware of it for 3 years.... They're talking more about Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy in Jefferson County, Alabama, the home of the largest city in the state, Birmingham. Who can blame them? The county is now being whipsawed by an ill-thought-out debt policy and the collapse of the bond insurers. Credit-rating downgrades all around have triggered a series of events that are no longer in the county's control, leaving it at the mercy of securities firms that have little room for maneuver themselves. This has produced a steady series of stories in my new favorite newspaper, the Birmingham News, all about how the county is preparing to declare bankruptcy any day.

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:02 PM 3 Comments

Dr Josef Ackermann can hire me for 5 times Tony Blair's JPMorgan salary

BBC News: Bankers try to learn crunch lessons

And I promise not to violate human rights or lie any nations into war either. Dr Ackermann said the industry has undergone "dramatic changes" in recent years including globalization and the growth of structured products that have spread risk but they have not improved stability."It's a very complex issue. It involves risk management rating agencies, accounting principles, "market architecture" and business models. We need to analyse the situation thoroughly. "If there are clear deficits in certain areas, for example, in the case of mortgage originators in the US, then some more regulation may be needed. But overall, I think the current regulatory framework is strong enough. Basel 2 is an important step in the right direction."

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:00 PM 0 Comments

Brown preaches to Financial Illiterate using their Weekend Newspaper of Choice

Reuters: UK's Brown vows new measures to pass on rate cuts

"Although the Bank of England has cut rates in recent months, the banks have not always been passing those reductions to their customers," Brown says in tomorrows News of the World. Brown has instructed lapdog Finance Minister Alistair Darling to lecture the main mortgage lenders next week on 'new measures'. I hereby suggest any new lending is based firmly on a maximum of 4x salary for when interest rates rise again once inflation grabs the UK by the neck in May.

Posted by enuii @ 10:43 PM 6 Comments

Who's got who by the short and curlies?

BBC Front Page: Banks must pass on cuts - Darling

Chancellor Alistair Darling has urged mortgage lenders to pass recent interest rate cuts on to homeowners. Sounds like Crash & Co are attempting to point the finger of blame and play straight face poker with a busted flush!!

Posted by damocles vs sisyphus @ 09:11 PM 12 Comments

Strong words indeed

Herald: Don't kid yourself - the housing slump really is here

HOW OFTEN must I say it? Falling house prices are a good thing, not a bad thing. It was property madness that got us into this financial mess in the first place, and the credit crisis will not be resolved, will not begin to be resolved, until house prices start to become more rational. That means house prices must come down. Average UK house prices of over eight times average earnings are unsustainable, morally and financially. Most home owners, sitting on large paper gains, know and accept this; many have the decency to be embarrassed about it. Brown leant on the governor of the Bank of England to cut interest rates by announcing, falsely, that "Because we've got low inflation we can cut interest rates." A housing "collapse" is necessary and unavoidable.

Posted by little professor @ 08:33 PM 13 Comments

G7 - Economic Outlook - bearish

Bloomberg: G-7 Signals Concern on Dollar's Slide, Weaker Growth

The officials downgraded their outlook for the world economy from that of two months ago, blaming the U.S. housing recession, credit-market turmoil, commodity prices and inflation pressures.

Posted by alan @ 05:48 PM 0 Comments

We're already seeing big falls in many cities

Telegraph: House prices down in half of all postcodes

House prices have fallen in nearly half of all postcodes in England and Wales compared with a year ago, raising fears that tens of thousands of home owners could be plunged into negative equity. According to Hometrack, the areas that have seen the largest falls are Swindon with prices down six per cent in some areas; Doncaster, down five per cent in many postcodes; Bristol, down six per cent; Plymouth, down five per cent.

Posted by uncle chris @ 04:41 PM 12 Comments

Mortgages for Ostriches

Telegraph: More bury heads in interest-only mortgages

One in three mortgages is now being taken out "on the never never" and interest-only home loans have doubled in popularity during the last five years, The Daily Telegraph can reveal.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:18 PM 12 Comments

It was only a matter of time...

The Guardian: How to sue your surveyor if the valuation is wrong

"The solicitor was well connected to the developer, and failed to tell buyers that similar flats in the same condition were selling for half the price. The valuer was complicit in this."

Posted by francis @ 10:31 AM 0 Comments

UK on a knife edge

Times: Lending market crisis will leave thousands of owners in the cold

A perfect storm is coming: housing crash, City job losses, political crisis & blame game, pound devaluation, decline in UK Norths Sea oil and gas production... can anyone here help me with a good news?

Posted by confused76 @ 10:25 AM 33 Comments

Be afraid! - he now wants to use taxpayers money to subsidise mortgages!

telegraph: Alistair Darling pledges action on mortgages

Darling: He said: "I want to do everything I possibly can to help the mortgage markets because it is not just important for first time buyers, but for the wider economy." While more radical options such as subsidising mortgages for those most in need are still far off, his tone suggests they are no longer regarded as totally unrealistic.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:52 AM 34 Comments

Nice of them to lead the way down ...

Reuters: UK commercial property values fall in March - CBRE

"British commercial property values fell 1.2 percent in March, taking the market's total loss since last summer's bull market peak to around 16 percent, CB Richard Ellis Group Inc said on Wednesday".

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 09:45 AM 0 Comments

Desperate Bricks Chicks

Times: There are still opportunities in buy-to-let

Is buy-to-let dead? No, but it is gasping for air. Amateurs are no longer willing to invest because many have made fundamental errors, such as buying properties that were not going to let, or at inflated prices. Professional investors can now buy at prices that are regarded as realistic. Those with a portfolio of more than five homes are usually able to negotiate special deals with lenders.

Posted by little professor @ 09:44 AM 3 Comments

Poor BTLers

The Times: The party's over for buy-to-let investors

For many years buy-to-let investors have enjoyed juicy annual returns on the back of low borrowing rates and a boom in UK property prices. But over the past eight months the outlook for buy-to-let property has shifted from very sunny to decidedly gloomy. First, the growing evidence that house prices are falling means that one vital prop to the buy-to-let property business - the prospect of capital gains to add to rental income - has now been knocked away. Secondly, the impact of the global credit crunch has made lenders in the UK much more wary of advancing money to buy-to-let borrowers . They have withdrawn many buy-to-let deals and jacked up the interest rates and the size of deposits required on the remaining ones.

Posted by little professor @ 09:41 AM 0 Comments

It's different here

Independent: Darling: We will not face homes slump like America

Britain will not follow America into a housing crash, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, predicted yesterday. Speaking to an audience in Washington before the G7 meeting, Mr Darling said that while the world was facing "the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression", the fundamentals of the British economy were "sound". There "were key differences between the UK and United States housing markets which mean that the UK housing market is unlikely to experience problems in the way that the property market in the US has been affected", he said.

Posted by little professor @ 09:32 AM 10 Comments

Strewth - Oz is finished

Asian Times: The Black Death of financial collapse

The financial and economic crisis now upon us is by far the most menacing of the past century - even more so than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is not just a "subprime" crisis; it is systemic - affecting the entire financial system. It is also global, affecting various countries in various ways but affecting them all. In achieving a certain "globalization", we have been uniquely successful in globalizing collapse, chaos and misery. It is a globalization which, in our short-sighted negligence, we never envisaged.

Posted by lvmreader @ 12:20 AM 5 Comments

Friday, April 11, 2008

Incoming inflation - Best buy some gold

Telegraph: IMF warns of 'fire and ice' threat to the world

The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the world economy is trapped between "fire and ice" - the threat of slumping growth and of rising inflation. Opening the IMF's spring meetings, Dominique Strauss-Kahn told ministers coming to Washington that there was only limited time to repair the financial system after the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Speaking with oil prices at record highs, he declared that "inflation may be back" and warned the relentless rise of food prices would hit efforts to reduce poverty in Africa and Asia.

Posted by pixel8r @ 09:20 PM 19 Comments

The crunch of credit is sounding louder again

John Authers: The end of the beginning of the credit crisis: FT

CDS spreads widening again, inter-bank lending getting stickier, massive bad debts still sitting there. Which means credit tightening - and we all know what happens then. John Authers - finger on the pulse as ever.

Posted by letthemfall @ 09:08 PM 1 Comments

Fast forward to 03:42 to see "Fun and Frivolity" with Brown and Darling

Youtube: Headcases Episode 1

This is the sort of thing I'd only post on a Friday night. Best quote: Alistair Darling to Gordon Brown: "You came bottom in Heat magazine's 'What's cool Survey', behind Gonnorhea, Paedophilia and Jade Goody".

Posted by paul @ 08:23 PM 0 Comments

30% drop, for sure...

Kitco: British Ounce, US$, Toppled by Tumbling Home Prices

Economic events in the United States often provide a preview of whats around the corner for the British economy. Both countries run large external trade deficits, and much like the US, the British economy has been expanding on little else than the availability of easy credit and asset price inflation in the housing market.

Posted by harold @ 06:49 PM 0 Comments

Talk of a House Price Crash gathers momentum in main stream press

FT: Why Gordon Brown is to blame for the housing crash

A tea-spluttering moment this morning when I read Anatole Kaletsky in The Times. Until recently the papers economics guru was a bull on the UK economy/housing market (accurately as it turned out). Today, perhaps inspired by the latest IMF report, he was talking about price falls of up to 30 per cent.

Posted by jack c @ 06:00 PM 11 Comments

Damning predictions for the Euro

Forexfactory.com: The Demise of the Euro

"Despite core inflation in the euro zone of only 2.4% and a slowing global economy, the Germans insist that the European Central Bank maintain a tight monetary policy. In direct opposition to Germany, the Latin bloc, joined by Ireland, wants the ECB to lower interest rates." .......with forex traders discussing this how long before the Euro meets it's maker??? Interesting comments posted beneath. Lots to ponder............although I admit, totally off-topic, so apologies.

Posted by bystander @ 05:52 PM 3 Comments

Is it spiralling out of control

FT: Wage settlements suggest impact of inflation

Wage settlements began to creep up this month, suggesting inflationary pressures are feeding through to pay packets.

Posted by holding out @ 05:39 PM 2 Comments

One in the eye for the xenophobes


There is no evidence that foreign migrants are being given precedence over local people in the allocation of social housing, according to new research. The authors say that neither qualitative analysis of local authority policies, nor an examination of patterns of tenure give any evidence to support claims that recent migrants get preferential treatment. In fact 90 per cent of people living in social housing were born in the UK. Most new migrants, particularly from new European Union member states such as Poland, cannot claim entitlement to social housing. The report also dismisses suggestions of queue jumping or abuse of the system.

Posted by little professor @ 05:30 PM 4 Comments

Negative equity here we come.

Sky News: Don't Get a Mortgage at the Moment

A good honest video report by Sky News, with real advice and not the usual spin from those with a vested interest. A few more like this and first time buyers are going to get the message!

Posted by buyatthebottom @ 04:40 PM 0 Comments

Don't worry about inflation...

Bloomberg: US Consumer Confidence hits 26 year low.

...this is the problem. Hell/handcart.

Posted by stoatgobbler @ 04:26 PM 0 Comments

Enjoy the rally while it lasts

MoneyWeek: Enjoy the bear market rally while it lasts

A wave of optimism has propelled markets off their mid-March lows. But the confidence seems misplaced as credit continues to tighten, and company earnings look set to disappoint.

Posted by damien @ 04:16 PM 4 Comments

Financials take note!!!!

Bloomberg: Subprime Forces Insurers to Reduce CEO Pay More Than Hurricanes

"Boards are holding CEOs accountable for $38 billion of subprime losses by slicing their salaries and bonuses by an average 20 percent, according to regulatory filings from companies in the S&P insurance index." ...........are we as British subjects not board members of UK PLC and as such, I would like to remove any state benefits, compensation and pension from GB and TB who have failed to steer the good ship Britania on a stable and true course. Also as a member of the board of UK PLC I would like Applegarth to give back every penny of his share options that he sold shortly before the news of the capital desert was 'scooped' by the BBC. In addition I demand that Mr King sticks to the real remit and combats inflation before bailing out his mates. All in agreement say; 'AYE')

Posted by bystander @ 04:16 PM 1 Comments

CML starts pleading hysterically for BOE intervention

FT: Lenders warn of sharp falls in mortgages

Mortgage lending could fall by half this year unless the Bank of England immediately frees up additional funds, warned the Council of Mortgage Lenders on Friday. The organisation said there was a real and immediate need for broader based action than we have seen to date. It thought lenders were hoarding funds as they were concerned over access to future funding. In October the CML predicted a 15 per cent slowdown in net lending in 2008, from 108bn to 90bn. Its forecast has deteriorated as borrowing demand has since significantly exceeded the industrys capacity to supply funds. It is... a real possibility...that net lending in 2008 could reach only half last years level unless additional funds become available, said Steven Crawshaw, chairman of the CML.

Posted by jack c @ 04:05 PM 9 Comments

Thousands to be laid off in City

HereInTheCity.com: More Jobs Go As Firms Tighten Their Belts

The next few weeks don't look like being a great time to be working in the finnacial markets.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:50 PM 10 Comments

Typically clear-sighted article by Anne Ashworth

Times Online: Banks must heed the property lessons of the 1990s too

"It is too early to typify the mood of the slowdown, although one thing is certain - homebuyers are as angry today as they were in 1990". If anger isn't a mood, I'm a Dutchman. And the article continues in the usual confused fashion. Complete drivel, but it seems clear at least that dear Anne is facing up to the idea of the HPC.

Posted by flash harry @ 02:36 PM 1 Comments

The British Ounce toppled by Housing Waves

Financial Sense US site: The British Ounce toppled by Housing Waves

Apart from the fact the pound sterling has now got the diminutive moniker "the british ounce", this is a really good read. "Bank of England pursues currency devaluation". Says it all. "asset based economy" is a good one. "rarely can countries devalue their way to prosperity" seems reasonable to me. Some good charts.

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:34 PM 5 Comments

Latest FT House Price Index out today

FT: UK house prices flat in March

UK house prices were flat in March, marking it as the fourth month out of five where almost no growth at all was seen in the market, according to the FT House Price Index. On an annual basis, house price inflation was at 5.4 per cent last month, down from 6.1 per cent in February. February was the only month in the past five to show house price growth. The latest data paint a slightly less gloomy picture than was presented by housing indices compiled by Nationwide and Halifax but confirm an overall picture of a softening market.

Posted by little professor @ 11:57 AM 21 Comments

The base rate falls but mortgage rates go up

MoneyWeek: The base rate falls yet mortgage rates are still rising

While the Bank of England cut its base rate yesterday, at least three mortgage providers actually raised their interest rates for borrowers. The credit crisis is now beyond central banks' control, writes John Stepek.

Posted by damien @ 11:37 AM 5 Comments

BTL action moves to the auction houses, at last!

Times: Is buy-to-let dead? No, but it is gasping for air

Gary Murphy, head of auctions for Allsop, says that their sales are as busy as ever: We have seen a shift from the amateur to professional investors. Amateurs are no longer willing to invest because many have made fundamental errors, such as buying properties that were not going to let, or at inflated prices. Professional investors can now buy at prices that are regarded as realistic. ahhhh when auctioners start speaking on newspaper I can smell the undertakers are really around the corner... AH HHHAHAHH HAHAH. BTLers rotten in hell!

Posted by confused76 @ 11:31 AM 1 Comments

Repossession, repossession ?

Guardian: Repossession, repossession

House prices in Britain are tumbling. So what will happen now to all those TV shows that have succeeded on the back of the property boom? Jon Henley reports

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:30 AM 29 Comments

Looks As Though House Prices Are Going Down

msn: The rate cut won't mean cheap mortgages

In other words, with consumers unable to spend more, and banks unwilling to lend more, it'll take a lot more than a couple of rate cuts to make people start buying houses again - a substantial fall in house prices should do the trick. And it looks like that's just what we'll get.

Posted by frank @ 10:28 AM 0 Comments

ECB in open conflict with the International Monetary Fund

telegraph: Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, said the ECB had its head in the sand.

ECB hawks defiant as storm gathers The European Central Bank has again refused to join Anglo-Saxon peers in cutting interest rates, defying ever-louder calls for action as the economic storm clouds gather over Europe.Europe risks a replay of the ERM crisis in the early 1990s when Germany raised rates to fight inflation, causing mayhem in those parts of the ERM bloc that were already in a downturn - Britain, Italy, Sweden. There is no escape valve this time.

Posted by chris @ 10:08 AM 1 Comments

Food for thought

Market Oracle: Is an International Financial Conspiracy Driving World Events?

Was Alan Greenspan really as dumb as he looks in creating the late housing bubble that threatens to bring the entire Western debt-based economy crashing down?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:52 AM 15 Comments

China - next mini bubble????

Market Oracle: Buy Chinese Stocks Like Crazy!

Will the next mini bubble be in Chinese stocks.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:48 AM 6 Comments

As BoE cuts rates, banks raise them

Times: Consumer crunch bites despite cut in base rate

Two things from this article. First, the main point of the article: "The rate cut would normally bring the cost of mortgages down. Instead, four of the biggest banks ignored it and increased charges on a range of loans, adding about 150 a month to a typical mortgage." Not sure exactly where the figure of 150 comes from (is that if they were coming off a 2-year fixed from 06, or is it compared to the cost of mortgages yesterday?) But it's a lot of money to suddenly have to find every month. Second point, which I find much more interesting: "Worryingly for the Bank [of England], many businesses cited financing costs as a key pressure a sign that the credit squeeze is fuelling inflation even as it saps economic activity." (Northern) Rock - BoE - Hard Place

Posted by night @ 08:34 AM 3 Comments

Express sets the interest rates

Daily Express: Rate will plunge to 3.5%

INTEREST rates could fall as low as 3.5 per cent next year, saving cash-strapped homeowners hundreds of pounds off their monthly mortgage bills. Slashing the cost of borrowing would bring much-needed relief for homeowners already struggling with mortgages and rocketing oil, food and energy bills. Most of Britains biggest lenders said they would be passing on the full cut immediately to customers.

Posted by little professor @ 08:30 AM 18 Comments

The Banks Have to Build Up Their Capital

Guardian: Home loans to cost more despite rate cut by Bank

Britain's largest mortgage lenders were last night accused of fattening their profits at the expense of increasingly stretched homeowners as two leading firms ignored the third interest rate cut from the Bank of England in five months and pushed through price increases on some of their most popular home loan offers.

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:18 AM 4 Comments

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Already ramping another cut. Will you look at the figures?

timesonline: May rate cut in doubt as inflation fears rise

"Prices for imported goods jumped by 1.2 per cent in February alone, lifting the annual pace of increase into double-digits at 10.4 per cent - the highest since September 1993." ..........The annual pace of imported inflation to 10.4%, surely this is a little above the CPI figure of 2.5% (b*llsh#t). This new raft of rises will take a month or two to seep into the consumer chain, so maybe squeeze another cut in before then, when CPI (b*llsh#t) figure demands a couple of letters to the chancellor. March CPI due out soon will be very interesting. GB will be wanting to massage the figures so perhaps high usage products like nose hair removers will have dropped in price enabling Crash to say CPI has gone down. Personally I am expecting a 'jump' to 2.7-9%, and break through 3% in April.

Posted by bystander @ 10:06 PM 4 Comments

Tinfoil, CHECK, Ammo, CHECK, Canned Food, CHECK

PrisonPlanet: Survivalism Goes Mainstream As Middle Class And Wealthy Fear Breakdown Of Society

The traditional face of survivalism is that of a shaggy loner in camouflage, holed up in a cabin in the wilderness and surrounded by cases of canned goods and ammunition. It is not that of Barton M. Biggs, the former chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley. Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food, Mr. Biggs writes. It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson. Even in America and Europe there could be moments of riot and rebellion when law and order temporarily completely breaks down. Survivalism, it seems, is not just for survivalists anymore.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:46 PM 16 Comments

Tapis breaks $115

upstreamonline.com: Some stats

Slightly old article, but worth a mention, re: inflation, gold prices, interest rates, etc. Most watch Brent (UK) and light sweet crude (USA), prices, but TAPIS is a good weathervane. Its the price of oil in Singapore, and a benchmark for Australia, NZ. It was the first to breach $100, quite some time before UK and USA prices did. Remember that gold soared when that happened, as it will when other thresholds are met. Oil is headed above $115 within the next month. And Gold will breach its previous high in that wake, and the UK's decision to cut rates will look increasingly STUPID!! Much worse than the single 0.25 cut in 2005.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:37 PM 2 Comments

Able owners may quit upside down loans

Orange County Business Journal: Walk-Away Borrowers: Latest Mortgage Mess?

Townhomes for sale in Fullerton: OC defaults up 146% in January, February to 4,091. Stalling home prices have brought a new worry for lenders: borrowers who might walk away from their loansnot because they cant pay, but because they dont want to. You Walk Away LLC in Carlsbad offers to help people walk away from their homes. The companys Web site says it will help delinquent borrowers by getting lenders to stop calling and by getting them off the hook from owing anything on the property. People are realizing its not that bad, said Chad Ruyle, a founder of the company and a lawyer for five years. For about $1,000, You Walk Away sells kits to people across the country, counseling them on their foreclosure options.

Posted by mken @ 09:12 PM 1 Comments

Give a Banker an Inch and he will want a Mile

Telegrath: Bank of England will need to cut interest rates further, experts say

The graph in the article shows the average house price at 9x the average salary yet Micheal Coogan of the Council of Mortgage Lenders insists that Bank of England needs to coordinate successive base rate cuts with further injections of more widely available liquidity!

Posted by enuii @ 08:16 PM 7 Comments

From ladder to snake

Yorkshire Post: Is this the end of the housing ladder?

the property market emerged from the devastating crash of the early 1990s a very different beast. Home ownership became a Holy Grail, and an undignified stampede to be first on the property ladder began. Many banks and building societies tried tempting first-time buyers through their doors with 100 per cent mortgages, others offered to pay deposits and all lived by the mantra that a mortgage was the greatest financial asset you were ever likely to have. It didn't stop there. Phil, Kirsty and Sarah Beeny showed us even the financially illiterate could dabble in the investment game. Checking property pages became a weekly pastime and while common sense told us otherwise, many refused to admit the bubble could ever burst. But burst it has.

Posted by little professor @ 08:12 PM 2 Comments

Shock horror - currency devaluation leads to more expensive foreign holidays!


Always good for a laugh, here is today's headline. Ah, but rate cuts are a *good* thing, are they not?

Posted by fed up @ 07:38 PM 0 Comments

What next for the Euro?

Bloomberg: Trichet Not Ready to Cut Rates Even as Risks Mount

Trichet said. ``The firm anchoring of medium- to longer-term inflation expectations is of the highest priority.'' The euro dropped against the dollar, falling from a record $1.5913 before Trichet spoke to $1.5727 at 6.45 p.m. in Frankfurt.

Posted by alan @ 07:05 PM 10 Comments

Two current topics - one Matt

Daily Telegraph: MATT

Saw the Matt posting the other day.....here's another. {Sorry, couldn't find a nice picture of Beeny or Krusty....}

Posted by rental john @ 05:59 PM 0 Comments

10 minutes of informative viewing

BBC: Today's Working Lunch

From the off (1) Interest cuts & implications (2) The spectre of "Negative Equity" (3) The plummeting Pound

Posted by jack c @ 03:43 PM 2 Comments

This chart says it all

Times: Mean house price divided by disposable Income per head

Well I don't see disposable income rising, so I guess this chart says it all. Comments from Krusty, or is she in hiding in Devon ?

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:36 PM 3 Comments

Greenspan on "Housing bubbles"

FT: Alan Greenspan: A response to my critics

On March 17, Alan Greenspan wrote an article for the FT entitled We will never have a perfect model of risk, in which he argued: We will never be able to anticipate all discontinuities in financial markets. He concluded: It is important, indeed crucial, that any reforms in, and adjustments to, the structure of markets and regulation [do] not inhibit our most reliable and effective safeguards against cumulative economic failure: market flexibility and open competition. The article attracted a number of critical responses in this forum. For example, Paul de Grauwe wrote: Greenspans article is a smokescreen to hide his own responsibility in making the financial crisis possible. (Read all the responses.)

Posted by jack c @ 03:24 PM 5 Comments

About time

BBC News: Bring it on

The drop in house prices might be a disaster for many home-owners, but some first-time buyers see it as a godsend.

Posted by submedia @ 03:11 PM 5 Comments

Want to know the future, just look at America in 2006

USA Today: Lenders foreclosed on about 7,700 homes in Denver last year

This is shocking, 7,700 foreclosed in 2006, officials expect 11,000 this year, but whats worse is someone has google mapped them all for Denver. Check it out!! There is the credit crunch justified in one image, zoomed down to each house... The biggest issue to me, is the prices they foreclosed at are averaged at $200,000, this is only half the average value of houses in the UK!!!

Posted by axxo @ 03:00 PM 5 Comments

Finally a report for those who benefit from falling house prices

BBC: Bring on the property crash

...includes quotes from FP, and perhaps other HPC posters - will you own up?

Posted by mark @ 02:39 PM 1 Comments

Three good homes for your savings

MoneyWeek: Three good homes for your savings

As the economy continues to stumble, savers need to be on their toes to ensure that their cash still generates a decent return. A look at three ways you can put your money to work.

Posted by damien @ 01:54 PM 0 Comments

Stop Buying Stuff

red2black.org.uk: Stop Buying Stuff

Captures it all nicely. Hilarious.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:46 PM 10 Comments

The 'D' word rears its ugly head

the Guardian: We are in the worst financial crisis since Depression, says IMF

The US mortgage crisis has spiralled into "the largest financial shock since the Great Depression" and there is a one-in-four chance that it will cause a full-blown global recession, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday. I dont really visit HPC site so much now that we are obviously on the way down but thought you lot might be interested in this

Posted by pintail @ 12:22 PM 6 Comments

Why the banks make business fume

FT.com: Why the banks make business fume


Posted by whiteknight @ 12:14 PM 4 Comments

Inflation above target but base rate cut anyway

BBC: Bank lowers interest rates to 5%

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has cut interest rates to 5% from 5.25% to spur the economy in the face of a global credit crunch. It is the central bank's third cut in interest rates since early December.

Posted by jack c @ 12:01 PM 30 Comments

Bull and bear cases for the dollar

Market Oracle: Has the US Dollar Bottomed?

Good article presenting bull and bear cases for the dollar. The biggest case for a rising dollar is a crisis in euroland - which should hit sooner than later

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:44 AM 0 Comments

Elliott wave 5 starting soon

Market Oracle: Gold and Silver, Preparing for the Next Launch

"We are a long way from having to be concerned about an exit strategy from our gold and silver positions. For those of you who worry about tops, I'll share my exit strategy with you. When 2 ounces of gold or 10 ounces of silver are equal in value to the daily quote for the Dow industrials, I'll start making plans to sell most of my metals, and I'll buy blue chip stocks or real estate with the proceeds. Today the ratio between gold and the Dow is 13.6 ounces of gold or 700 ounces of silver versus the Dow. That is a long way from my exit. "

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:19 AM 7 Comments

Bullionvault's Adrian Ash could be right here.

Market Oracle: IMF Gold Sales- Rich West Sells Gold; Asian Nations Sell US Dollars?

Has there really been a "secret deal" to allow central banks of Beijing and Japan to buy gold in exchange for a continued policy of stockpiling of Dollars and T-bills?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:04 AM 0 Comments

The rich are wise people, what do they know we don't?

reuters: Private banks feel sting as crisis hurts the rich

ZURICH (Reuters) - An abundant flow of rich people's money into private banks is rapidly evaporating and dashing hopes it can balance out subprime damage in other parts of their businesses.

Posted by mark @ 10:52 AM 1 Comments

Includes fun on-line poll ...

LabourHome: Affordable Housing

Have Labour put an end to boom and bust? Answer 'Yes' or 'No'.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:06 AM 6 Comments

5 Worst Postcodes for high LTV

FT.com: UK banks seek more BoE borrowing

All pretty standard doom and gloom until the last two paragraphs "Separately, Experian, the personal credit rating group, has identified five postal codes in the UK where the average home loan is 90 per cent or more of the median home price and which are most vulnerable to negative equity in a downturn."

Posted by mike @ 10:00 AM 3 Comments

EU competition police a bigger threat to energy security than the Kremlin

The Telegraph: The UK needs to rethink its 'romantic' energy policy or face disaster

Dr Bernotat, who heads Germany's power giant e.on, is no shrinking violet. Last year he lashed out at Brussels, calling the EU competition police a bigger threat to energy security than the Kremlin.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:45 AM 0 Comments

And what does the BBC think will happen to rates this time?

BBC "News": Bank tipped to cut interest rates

What's the point of lowering rates right now apart from making an empty gesture?

It is because of the Bank of England's ineptitude that the money market is now repricing risk, and the LIBOR has become disconnected from the central bank rate. If the Bank of England had not decided to "adjust" its inflation measure a couple of years ago (its a bit late now), and there had not been a policy of targeting house prices with rate cuts (every time house price inflation dropped below 9%) then we would not be in the mess we are in now.

"Our inability to see into the future is because we don't want to take responsibility for it" Stewart Brand

Posted by paul @ 08:43 AM 55 Comments

Time out for reflection

Amazon via HPC resources: Customer Reviews

SAMPLE REVIEW 5 of 15 people found the following review helpful: Discussion Banned, February 27, 2006 By Random - See all my reviews I have lurked on this site for a while and recently as it becomes clear that house prices have started to move up again (especially in London) the moderators at HPC have started to ban all new bulls. This means that anyone who expresses an opinion that prices are moving up is banned. The site is a complete joke. Get on with your life and if you want to buy something do it or at least get advice from somewhere other than HPC

Posted by malct @ 08:28 AM 13 Comments

Preventing the next HPC

BBC: Peston's Picks: Osborne and the next crunch

".....Well, Osborne believes that the monetary authorities in our case the Bank of England need to take greater account of inflation in the price of houses and other assets when endeavouring to promote economic stability."
At least the Tories are talking about solving the house price problem (i.e. reckless lending problem) once and for all.
This should be the new topic for HPC.co.uk
Maybe we need to register www.preventingafuturehousepricecrash.co.uk !

Posted by voiceofreason @ 07:41 AM 24 Comments

Euro anyone?

Independent online: The currency crunch

"The euro's surge may spur new theories from economists that the currency of the eurozone will become the main international unit of currency as early as 2015" Not one mention of the crisi being played out in Ireland, Italy, Spain etc. Now they ramp the Euro. Looks like the media are beginning to sell the idea of the UK jopining the Eurozone already.

Posted by bystander @ 07:09 AM 11 Comments

Here we go again.

Timesonline: Mortgage costs will rise even if Bank of England cuts interest rate

"Banks are continuing to increase mortgage rates despite expectations that the Bank of England will cut the base rate by at least a quarter-point today. " This should read: "Banks are continuing to increase mortgage rates BECAUSE of expectations that the Bank of England will cut the base rate by at least a quarter-point today."

Posted by bystander @ 06:52 AM 1 Comments

Britain could be hardest hit by financial crisis, says IMF

telegraph: Britain could be hardest hit by financial crisis, says IMF

Britain could be hardest hit by the global credit crisis as banks in this country have racked up bigger losses than anywhere else in the world, a new International Monetary Fund analysis shows. The IMF expects British banks to lose more than 20 billion - equivalent to three per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) - from the international meltdown in sub-prime mortgages

Posted by worried @ 06:48 AM 0 Comments

UK and world facing the biggest financial shock since the Great Depression, says IMF

daily mail: UK and world facing the biggest financial shock since the Great Depression, says IMF

"The world is facing the biggest financial shock since the Great Depression, warns the International Monetary Fund. In its most startling report of modern times, it says the meltdown "has inflicted heavy damage on markets and the financial institutions at the core of the financial system"

Posted by worried @ 06:44 AM 0 Comments

Housing-market woes spread to Britain

economist: The Bust Begins

FOR years the housing market in Britain has defied gravity. For a few months in 2004 and 2005 house prices moderated, before taking off again. But now, finally, tighter credit and overstretched household budgets are pulling prices down.

Posted by mken @ 04:14 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

House armageddon

Times: House prices: disaster ahead

"conditions in the British housing market today are broadly similar to those in America a year or two ago. The question is whether the Bank of England and the Government will respond to the housing downturn as energetically as the Federal Reserve Board, the White House and the US Congress. The American Government has risen to the challenge of the credit crunch and housing crisis; the test for British institutions has only just begun" Absolute Tosh!

Posted by confused76 @ 11:38 PM 7 Comments

Oil up; inflation next

Reuters: Oil roars to record over $112 on U.S. inventory drop

Oil surged to a record high over $112 a barrel on Wednesday after a government report showed a sharp drop in U.S. inventories ahead of the summer driving season. How long can we continue to ignore the high oil price?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 08:38 PM 4 Comments

str 2007 beat them to it (and made a fool of me)

FT: Prices are now lower than a year ago, says Halifax

str 2007, I can but grovel! NB, re your username, I sold-to-rent in January 2008. Do I get a prize for being closest to the wire? Do you think the sell-to-renters will be boasting to each other in future about when they biled out?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:48 PM 12 Comments

IMF to sell one eighth of its vast gold reserves to plug its budget deficit

Telegraph: Fund to sell gold reserves to plug budget deficit

The International Monetary Fund is to sell an eighth of its vast gold reserves in a deal with the big powers to plug its budget deficit and reform its bloated structure, ending years of high living. After lording it over the world for the past 50 years - ordering every improvident state from Britain, Argentina and Indonesia to slash costs - the fund is now on the receiving end of bitter medicine.

Posted by jack c @ 07:20 PM 17 Comments

Set your recorders: Wednesday Apr 9th 20:00

Channel 4: Property Ladder new series starts tonight

Beeny's back with a new series of the thinking man's property porn. Will this be the series in which it all finally turns nasty? Or if it's been recorded before the credit crunch, will rampant HPI save the bumbling amateurs from ruin as usual?

Posted by little professor @ 06:21 PM 22 Comments

Slow down in world growth; but no recession

BBC: IMF slashes world growth forecast

Global economy is gloomy but it is predicted that it is unlikely to result in a recesssion. There is a strong trend between GDP and house prices. The bulls out there will argue as there is no recession, any house prices will be on the minor correction side as opposed to crash??

Posted by giant ant @ 05:06 PM 1 Comments

Decent mortgages are still out there.... sort of...maybe

bbc: HSBC's mortgage offer bucks trend

Britain's biggest bank, HSBC, is trying to lure tens of thousands of mortgage customers whose fixed rate deals are expiring with other lenders.

Posted by giant ant @ 05:03 PM 2 Comments

Can't call it a recession yet...

BBC News: Broader, deeper, longer slowdown

"The UK has been hoping that as consumer spending slows, a weaker pound would boost manufacturing exports to other countries, thus rebalancing the economy" - and flocks of pigs will soar on high...!

Posted by uncle tom @ 04:38 PM 18 Comments

And there goes the pound

BBC: Pound falls to all-time euro low

The HPC in the US trashed the dollar.
The HPC in UK is/will trash the pound.
Question is, how low will sterling go against the Euro?
Or rather how much pain can the Eurozone take ?
It is almost as if inflation has been exported by the Anglosphere to the countries that manufacture stuff. Germany and China.

Posted by voiceofreason @ 04:23 PM 17 Comments

The most affected states are

LA Times: Bankruptcy filings jump 30%

From Bloomberg News April 5, 2008 An increase in March bankruptcy filings is another indication that the U.S. economy is in recession, led by states where the housing boom turned to bust. More than 90,000 bankruptcy filings were made in March, the highest since insolvency laws became more restrictive in October 2005, according to statistics compiled from court records by Jupiter ESources. Filings in March were 30% above the pace in 2007. Rising bankruptcies, together with mounting foreclosures and fewer jobs, are further signs the biggest housing slump in a generation is hurting consumers and businesses. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week for the first time acknowledged that the economy might be facing a recession and vowed to act to cushion the slowdown.

Posted by malct @ 03:21 PM 2 Comments

Should we feel sorry for estate agents?

BBC: Should we feel sorry for estate agents?

They will only get my sympathy if the thickies realise they need to start prcing DOWN to survive. That's Poxtons stuffed then.

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:11 PM 17 Comments

Yet more charts I'm afraid

The Market Oracle: UK House Prices Plunge Over the Cliff

During the boom years the City of London as the worlds financial centre contributed disproportionately to UK GDP growth, and this growth has been reflected in the degree to which London House Prices have been bid ever higher. However during the current credit crisis, London will experience the deflationary impact of the lack of liquidity as bonuses dry up for city workers and huge job losses occur as banks and financial institutions curtail their lending. The UK Housing market is on track for a significant drop in house prices going into 2010 of as much as 33%. March's 2.5% price drop will be followed by a further sharp fall in April 08, This will be the trigger for house price crash headlines across much of the UK media.

Posted by malct @ 02:54 PM 0 Comments

I like the comments after completion

Guardian: Mortgage quiz

"You scored 9 out of a possible 10 Good show. You'll ride out the crisis" Too bldy right I will Guardian - I'm a long term blogger on HPC!!

Posted by inbreda @ 12:32 PM 5 Comments

Radio 1 is in on it

Radio 1: House price falls: cause for concern?

In the 1990s housing slump, tens of thousands of home owners fell into that kind of negative equity, which in turn led to a rise in repossessions. For the moment at least, only the most pessimistic pundits think that there could be a repeat of that situation.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 12:23 PM 14 Comments

Return to saner prices after Decade of Debt

Telegraph: Return to saner prices after Decade of Debt

Even a 30pc fall in house prices would only get us back to 2004 price levels.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 12:21 PM 24 Comments

Dont believe Gordon Brown the housing market is in big trouble

MoneyWeek: Dont believe Gordon Brown the housing market is in big trouble

Gordon Brown is trying to portray last month's 2.5% house price fall as "containable". But politicians cant prevent things simply by going into denial - the truth is that prices have much further to fall.

Posted by damien @ 12:18 PM 6 Comments

Falling Pound to effect House Prices?

OneStopView.com Blog: Sterling Hits Record Low Against Euro of Below 80p

Is this another big sign that the UK is bracing itself for a replica of USAs economic situation? Are there worser times ahead? Will the property market nose dive? The Euro hitting record highs against the sterling is little good news to encourage those from the UK, add to that recent figures from the Halifax Bank stating a 2.6% drop in house prices and Abbey being the last mortgage provider now to withdraw 100% mortgages. It all shows signs of a recession. now we await the increase of unemployment which will be the final nail into the last ten years of growth the UK has seen.

Posted by eve green @ 11:27 AM 10 Comments


Telegraph: Matt

He has a wonderful gift for hitting the nail on the head

Posted by uncle tom @ 11:14 AM 3 Comments

It's back to the world of proper saving and borrowing for homes and the better for it

The Independent: It's back to the world of proper saving and borrowing for homes and the better for it

"Think of the mighty Halifax, who until today was predicting that house prices would not fall this year. We all get house prices wrong."

Posted by becky @ 10:03 AM 2 Comments

Putting an end to boom-and-bust

Conservative Home: Time to look at Land Value Tax?

Here was my bright suggestion, which went down like a cup of cold sick, but there you go. For a more left wing spin, see the Labour Land Campaign's Manifesto. I had a hand in that as well, tee hee.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 09:57 AM 18 Comments

Houses Worth Less Than The Bricks They Are Made Of


BRITAIN'S houses are now worth less as homes than they are as individual bricks, it was claimed last night. Estate agents say most homeowners are dispensing with their services and instead dismantling their houses and selling them bit-by-bit at car boot sales or down the pub.

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:37 AM 5 Comments

Advice: If you own excess property sell it (if you can)

Channel 4 News: House price fall: what's the effect? - Studio discussion

Watch Cathy Newman's report which also includes a studio discussion with Melanie Bien from Savills Private Finance, Ed Stansfield, a property economist at Capital Economics, and Jonathan Davis of the website housepricecrash.co.uk (which describes itself as a counterbalance to the huge amounts of positive spin on the property market) offer their views on the housing market. Brilliant comment at the end by Jonathan Davis - Nice one.

Posted by crashwatcher @ 09:25 AM 17 Comments

It believes the UK is especially vulnerable to the economic slowdown

SKYNEWS: UK House Prices Set For Huge Slide?

Did you hear that Gordon? Now what were you saying yesterday? The International Monetary Fund has warned that the country is heading for a slide in the housing market similar to that now causing heartache in America. It thinks that millions of homeowners face an increase of 3,000 or more in their yearly mortgage bills because of the credit crisis. And it believes that the number of people having their homes repossessed could double. . . . and SKY's Murdoch seems eager to help it all go t^$ up, or down, whatever.

Posted by malct @ 08:56 AM 9 Comments

Well he would, wouldn't he?

BBC News: Darling 'optimism' on UK economy

''...The Chancellor, Alistair Darling has defended his forecast after UK economic growth was downgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). ...'' Dress it up anyway you like, we are heading for a full-blown recession.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:56 AM 5 Comments

Mainstream Movie Issue Gathering Pace

SKYNEWS: Housing Gloom As Prices Plummet

House prices fell by 2.5% in March, the biggest monthly fall since the last housing crash in 1992. Britain's biggest lender, the Halifax, says the fall is more than six times higher than analysts' predictions. Business correspondent Joel Hills has more.

Posted by malct @ 08:50 AM 2 Comments

Gold corrects but money supply surges

Safe Haven: Gold Thoughts

"You do want to own Gold for the final ride to more than US$1,500, but getting on the train at the right station can increase the pleasure derived from the ride."

Great graph of US M2 v gold. Money supply is still surging but gold is correcting. Nowandfutures.com who monitior US M3 shows the same crazy monetary expansion.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:48 AM 29 Comments

I don't think anyone undersatands

SKYNEWS: Why Mortgage Deals Are Disappearing

Last time there was a queue at a bank, it was savers desperate to get their money out. Now the queue is of customers trying to get a mortgage. Even the Co-op is closing its books. The Co-op Bank's Chief Executive, David Anderson, joins Jeff Randall

Posted by malct @ 08:44 AM 0 Comments

Current account deficits have reached extreme levels across much of the ex-Soviet bloc

The Telegraph: Eastern Europe 'in danger of a hard landing'

Eastern Europe faces the growing risk of a ''hard landing" as the world's financial crisis spreads wider, with serious spill-over dangers for Scandinavian, Italian and Austria banks that have lent heavily to the region, the IMF has warned.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:41 AM 0 Comments

Bank of England to reduce interest rates this week?

SKY NEWS: Pound Hits Record Low Against Euro

The pound has hit a record low of 80p against the euro in trading today. It come after a warning from the IMF that house prices in the UK could nosedive by 10% this year. The warning followed a survey by the Halifax which showed the biggest monthly drop in the value of UK homes in over 15 years.

Posted by malct @ 08:40 AM 1 Comments

Financial crisis deepens

The Telegraph: IMF bites the bullet as crisis deepens

Yesterday's GFSR was among the gloomiest reports that has ever been published by the IMF - an institution that is hardly renowned for hyperbole.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:38 AM 0 Comments

LSE economist fails property economics course

FT: A fall in property prices that kicks away the ladder

An attempt to construct a VI case against falling prices worthy of Anne Ashworth or David Smith, by an LSE economic history lecturer. No prizes for spotting that by denying a mortgage to finance an overpriced seaside flat the impecunious young couple are being spared capital loss and extra interest costs compared with renting and waiting until sensible prices are available, while economic Darwinism ensures the loss is borne by the older Muppet family, though justice suggests that it ought to fall on VIs that caused the price bubble to begin with. Also no prizes for noting failure to discuss the impact of net migration on housing demand, or the minimal role of new building in determining house prices when set alongside the availability of finance.

Posted by mark @ 01:30 AM 0 Comments

HSBC steps up to the plate

FT.com: HSBC to match existing mortgages

No comment. Audacious is an interesting choice of phrase.

Posted by whiteknight @ 12:28 AM 24 Comments

A celebration

sizzlefizzle.com: Its Official, the Market has Turned

I won't make a habit of posting satire cartoons on the main page, but I wanted to mark this day of 2.5 monthly falls with a statement of the bleeding obvious! Clearly, as my previous post shows, I won't be happy until the entire Fiat currency system is finally put to bed, bit this is at least the beginning of a glimmer of hope for the good folk of housepricecrash.co.uk

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:24 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

House price fall: what's the effect?

Channel 4 News: Channel 4 News

Britain's largest mortgage lender, the Halifax, today reported an average 2.5% fall in the value of homes during March. The last time there was a bigger slump in monthly figures was September 1992. In Particular Watch Cathy Newman's report which includes a studio discussion with Melanie Bien from Savills Private Finance, Ed Stansfield, a property economist at Capital Economics, and Jonathan Davis of the website housepricecrash.co.uk (http://www.channel4.com/player/v2/player.jsp?showId=11665) Brilliant advice for people with spare property at the end - brilliant last word by Jonathan!

Posted by crashwatcher @ 11:15 PM 0 Comments

As 100% mortgages end inflated house prices are taken with it

Firstrung: Why first time buyers should celebrate the end of the 100% mortgage

Whilst there was the customary wringing of hands and 'sympathy wailing' for first time buyers in the press, is there perhaps a contrarian viewpoint that deserves an audience in relation to the demise of the 100% mortgage? Should this event actually be a cause of celebration for the vast legions of disenfranchised and priced out first time buyers? Abbey have finally announced they would be putting their 100% mortgage offer to rest. Abbey actually entered the much riskier 100%+ market much later than their competitors, as late as summer 2007, pulling that particular mortgage offer in February once the effects of the credit crunch began to impact on their lending decisions. However, their '100% withdrawal' was a milestone

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:49 PM 4 Comments

Mortgage approvals still on steep downward curve

Firstrung: CML predict mortgage approvals for house purchases will continue their 30% decline throughout 2008

The February figures relate to completions of transactions started several months ago. More recently, there has been consistent evidence of tightening in lending criteria which will lead to shrinking pipelines of new business as the recent Bank of England's credit condition survey made clear. We expect this process of further tightening in lending criteria to continue in the second quarter as lenders respond to the challenging market conditions.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:46 PM 0 Comments

These Muppets will have to get a real job now!!!!

The Times: Capital One cut UK workforce by 40 per cent

Big impact in Notthingham esp. those flats!!! Capital One, the US credit card provider, will cut its British workforce by 40 per cent after announcing plans to lay-off 750 workers. The North Carolina-based company said that the jobs would be moved from its UK call centres and account servicing division and transferred to India and other countries. Capital One said last June that it would cut 2,000 staff worldwide, leaving it with about 27,000 employees. The company expanded rapidly in Europe in recent years and is thought to have come under pressure in the UK in the past year as default levels have risen and new restrictions were imposed on the penalty charges that can be applied to credit card customers.

Posted by eagle @ 10:41 PM 2 Comments

More rate-cutting propaganda

To understand boom and bust, you must understand money.

The Mises Institute: Money, Banking and The Federal Reserve

Did you ever ask the question as a kid, what is money? I did, and didn't get a good answer, until recently. For those who don't know, this is one of the many films that explain how our monetary system creates booms and busts and devalues the money in your purse to the profit of a small group of bankers. This system has been around since the end of the middle ages. It boomed ever since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Given the small concentration of wealth it causes, it should be no surprise that there is an elite group who have an agenda.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:27 PM 5 Comments

I think we will be seeing these headlines in the UK within 3 months

Irish Independent: Property crash hits asking prices by up to 7pc

ASKING prices for houses in some of the country's most affluent areas have plummeted by a massive 7pc in the space of just three months, according to a new survey published today. The report reveals property prices in the leafy suburbs of south county Dublin tumbled by an average of 40,000, or 6pc, in the first quarter of 2008.

Posted by john kane @ 10:21 PM 1 Comments

Government set to plead with banks to keep the party going.

Times: Rate cut demanded as property prices slide

Caroline Flint set to urge Council of Mortgage Lenders to extend mortgage repayment durations to enable homeowners to make smaller payments so the government can continue robbing Joe Public blind!!

Posted by enuii @ 10:08 PM 9 Comments

Housepricecrash gets a mention on the BBC

BBC: Will mortgage queues return?

So much house price news today I'm surprised this hasn't been spotted. Includes (about 2/3rd down) "For Jonathan Davis, from housepricecrash.co.uk, reality is now coming into line with his longstanding prediction of a big fall in prices." together with some of his predictions for the future.

Posted by duncan @ 07:24 PM 4 Comments

Food price rise to impact on HPC?

TheStar.com: UN: Food riots 'warning sign'

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates The recent outbreak of food riots is a warning sign that rising food prices could cause unrest and instability across the world, the UN's top humanitarian official said Tuesday. Apologies if some feel this is off topic, but why no mention in the domestic press??

Posted by renting2 @ 07:09 PM 14 Comments

Open the Champaign

BBC NEWS 24: Brown seeks to calm housing fears

The prime minister said a 2.5% fall in March, recorded by the Halifax, should be seen in the context of 10 years in which property prices had risen 180%.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 06:39 PM 27 Comments

EA recommends stampede to the exits ...

London Lite: Asking prices slashed as home sales slump to lowest since 1995

Miles Shipside of Rightmove said ... "... in the current market sellers should price below their competition to avoid a larger price drop later in the year."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 06:36 PM 9 Comments

Coraline Flint - Missing the point!

Moneymarketing: Govt to set up working group on credit crunch next week

I like the last paragraph - discussing the enviroment and credit crisis in the same breath! What people need is affordable housing.....not this twaddle! Bring on the price correction.

Posted by rental john @ 06:12 PM 0 Comments

Buyers refusing to buy until we hit the bottom

BBC: Further fall in US housing sales

Houses still dropping. Buyer waiting despite huge rate cut. These buyers are wiley characters spending their money in their own best interests instead of jumping in asap to prop up the US housing market.

Posted by hubbers @ 06:07 PM 1 Comments

Vince Cable latest on HPC

Moneymarketing: Cable says fall in house prices just the beginning

Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor Vince Cable believes the 2.5 per cent fall in house prices recorded by Halifax is only the start of a market downturn. He says: "These figures confirm the market was overvalued and due a painful correction. But we are only at the early stages of a market fall. The wheels are clearly coming off Browns economic wagon.

Posted by jack c @ 05:59 PM 4 Comments

So much for an independent Bank of England

Reuters: Brown says rates can be cut as house prices tumble

House prices fell sharply in March, hardening expectations of an interest rate cut this week and prompting unusually blunt remarks on rate policy from Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose popularity has slumped. In unusually forthright comments, Brown told the BBC: "Because we've got low inflation we can cut interest rates." At 2.5 percent, inflation is in fact above the 2.0 percent target level that Brown set for the Bank of England.

Posted by little professor @ 05:52 PM 18 Comments

Getting the measure of things?

Telegraph: IMF: Financial crisis costs will near $1 trillion

This is the second recent analysis that suggests the true cost of the US credit crisis will be in the order of a trillion dollars. Moreover the IMF has no particular interest in playing the numbers up or down, so it will be taken seriously. Getting the measure of the problem is the first step to recovery - but only the first step...

Posted by uncle tom @ 04:19 PM 4 Comments

Lenders Expect Reduced Credit Availability in Q2

Bank of England: Credit Conditions Survey

That means a further reduction in credit from the already tight conditions we have now. Chart 1 shows the large drop in expected credit availability. Chart 3 shows the expected increase in spreads.

Posted by also sold to rent @ 03:58 PM 0 Comments

Libor Falls

The Times: LIBOR Falls

The Bank of England will pump an extra 5 billion into the financial system in a further move to boost liquidity and today hinted it may re-consider the type of assets UK banks can use as collateral.

Posted by giant ant @ 03:34 PM 2 Comments

Credit crunch costs '$1 trillion'

BBC: Credit crunch costs '$1 trillion'

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that potential losses from the credit crunch will reach $945bn (472bn) and could be even higher.

Posted by hubbers @ 02:45 PM 1 Comments

Nearly there, nearly there ...

Halifax Bank of Scotland: Historical Data Spreadsheet

House prices down 4.4% between Q3 2007 and Q1 2008 (not seasonally adjusted), or down 1.9% if seasonally adjusted. (click on 'historical houseprice data'). On either basis, prices are still up 1.2% y-o-y.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:40 PM 6 Comments

It's all okay then

BBC News: Brown seeks to calm economy fears

Gordon Brown has said the UK is well placed to deal with global economic crises, after figures showed a sharp decline in house prices.

Posted by needahouse @ 02:21 PM 4 Comments

Panic spreads through headlines

EveningStandard: House price bombshell

Warning of epidemic of repossessions. The 2.5 per cent fall in the Halifax index last month is the worst since September 1992 when property prices crashed. Up until today, Halifax was predicting prices would remain steady. It was far more drastic than the 0.5 per cent decline feared by City economists and piles pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates on Thursday. Analyst Seema Shah at Capital Economics described it as a "stunningly large drop", adding: "There is a clear risk that this housing market correction will be sharper and deeper than we currently expect." Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight, said of the 2.5 per cent fall: "This is a very worrying figure and it comes before the latest escalation of the credit crunch."

Posted by confused76 @ 02:09 PM 41 Comments

Even Auntie admits it

BBC News: House prices 'see sharp decline'

House prices fell by 2.5% in March, the biggest monthly decline since September 1992, much more than many analysts had forecast, the Halifax has said.

Posted by max @ 02:01 PM 0 Comments

Massive house price drop is supported by strong fundamentals

Citywire: House prices drop 2.5%, most in 15 years

House prices drop 2.5% in March but don't worry Martin Ellis, Halifax Chief Economist says: 'Sound economic fundamentals are supporting house prices. A strong labour market, low interest rates and a shortage of new houses underpin housing valuations'. 1.1% annual growth, only a few more of these and it will be YOY negative.

Posted by wyldman100 @ 01:00 PM 0 Comments

Bitten in the fundamentals

Telegraph: UK house bubble is bursting and it's serious

Just in case you hadn't noticed.

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:44 PM 23 Comments

some editors talking about homebuilders being a good buy just now.

321GOLD: This week in 'The Room'

This week finds me writing from Room 2218 of the infamous Jekyll Island Club. The hotel's adjective comes from a secret meeting held here in 1910 involving some of America's most powerful men. - fast forward - some editors talking about homebuilders being a good buy just now. Homebuilders? Surely you jest, I thought to myself as I listened to the presentation. But then, Steve Sjuggerud, editor of the highly popular and widely read Daily Wealth, discussed how, in a typical housing collapse, the shares in the homebuilders will go down by as much as 75% to 90%, a level that would make it seem hard to get hurt. But the more important thing is that when they rebound from those depressed levels, they can go up by as much as 300% to 500%.

Posted by malct @ 12:38 PM 0 Comments

Bit more Iceland bashing.

Telegraph: Fear of Iceland bail-out could signal new future for the IMF

Since its inception after the Second World War, the International Monetary Fund has never seemed more archaic. But the credit crisis could revive its role as lender of last resort.

Posted by holding out @ 12:30 PM 15 Comments

Logica massive job cuts

Independent: Logica set to take axe to UK jobs

UK workers to be replaced by off shore "resources".

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:19 PM 4 Comments

....going, going....gone. HPI goes YoY Negative - bit moment

Defaqto iabn - Inevestment and Business News: UK Anniual House Price Inflation goes negative

"The only real surprise is in how quickly it has happened. House prices fell by a stunning 2.5 per cent in March, according to the latest Halifax index the biggest monthly fall since September 1992."

Posted by notlongnow @ 12:16 PM 1 Comments

Gold down in deflationary period ?

Moneyweek: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/44984/how-will-the-federal-reserves-actions-affect-the-price-of-gold.html

When I look at the policies that central banks are adopting today, everywhere, I see an inflationary epidemic that is feeding on itself and confirming the bull market in gold.

Posted by holding out @ 11:47 AM 5 Comments

Few surprises here

BBC News: Mortgage lending hits 16 year low

"We expect this process of further tightening in lending criteria to continue in the second quarter as lenders respond to the challenging market conditions," So no end in sight - will the headline read 'all-time low' next month?

Posted by uncle tom @ 11:35 AM 6 Comments

Quick! Throw some cash at the problem!

Aboutproperty: Goverment annoucnes assistance for first time buyers

Housing minister Caroline Flint has announced the government is to offer new grants to first-time buyers in order to assist this vulnerable group onto the housing ladder. Responding to a severe correction in house prices - with Halifax today reporting house prices dropped 2.5 in March - Ms Flint today announced first-time buyers will be eligible for assistance grants of up to 1,500 in value.

Posted by little professor @ 11:20 AM 12 Comments

Atishoo! Atishoo! We all fall down!

Independent: Housing market tipped to weather credit crunch

Chris Wood, vice president of the National Association of Estate Agents, is optimistic... He said the length of time it took to sell a home had increased from between 28 to 49 days to around 60 to 70 days, while sellers were generally accepting around 10% less than their asking price. He said: "House prices are dipping but we are not seeing the market go into terminal decline. There's no mass panic that we saw in the 1980s and 1990s. The market is catching its breath. It has a sniffle, rather than influenza."

Posted by big bad wolf @ 11:09 AM 3 Comments

The end of an era - the 100% mortgage is no more

MoneyWeek: The end of an era - the 100% mortgage is no more

As Abbey takes the last widely-available 100% mortgage off the market, credit is set to become even more expensive - which means anyone who thinks UK house prices are heading for a soft landing is delusional...

Posted by damien @ 11:09 AM 3 Comments

Halifax data shows year-on-year house price fall

Monevator: Halifaxs UK house price index plunges 2.5% in March; falls year on year

Halifax's -2.5% fall for March data out today is even worse if looked at year on year. Average house prices have fallen by around 3,000 since March 2007, but the bank focuses instead on 3 month periods, enabling it to claim a small rise.

Posted by the investor @ 10:41 AM 0 Comments

If you sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind

The Guardian: The only surprise is it came as a surprise

Britain's property bubble was just as excessive as that in the US, and the full impact of the credit crunch will only be felt over the next six to nine months. The decline in house prices would be exacerbated by any rise in unemployment, and given the pivotal role that the property market now plays in the UK economy, longer dole queues as a result of falling mortgage demand and weaker consumer spending are now a very high risk indeed. Some City analysts believe prices could fall by 10% in 2008 and by a similar amount in 2009: in the light of today's new figures those do not look like outlandish forecasts.

Posted by timelash @ 10:39 AM 0 Comments

The beginning of the end....

Times: Biggest house price plunge for 15 years

''...House prices in Britain plunged last month by the worst figure since the housing crisis in the early 1990s. Halifax, the countrys largest mortgage lender, revealed today that March prices dropped by 2.5 per cent, the biggest monthly fall for 15 years. That took the annual three-month rate of house price inflation down to 1.1 per cent and the average house price to 191,556. Analysts had forecast a monthly fall of 0.4 per cent and an annual three-month gain of 2.3 per cent....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:18 AM 91 Comments

Pathetic waste of money!

BBC: Extra help for first-time buyers

'We are making the dream of a new home more affordable for thousands of low-income first time buyers' (Prime Minister Gordon Brown). How about reinstating the 10% lower tax band you idiot, that'll make the dream of home ownership more possible. Why do Labour insist on making 'working for a living' harder whilst at the same time increasing State reliance? Labour really are the nasty party when it comes to destroying social mobility and creating it's own dependant client state.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:43 AM 21 Comments

I'll drink to this news! :)

Telegraph: Credit crunch forces end of 100 pc mortgage

The 100 per cent loan has been in existence for 20 years and its withdrawal will make it even harder for first-time buyers to secure financing. A year ago there were 158 100 per cent mortgages available, according to MoneyFacts, a personal finance publisher. From Thursday there will be none. Andrew Hagger, of MoneyFacts, called it "a milestone". Ray Boulger, at the mortgage brokerage John Charcol, said: "Abbey's decision is significant. From Thursday, if you haven't saved up for a deposit, or if you haven't got parental support, it will be impossible to get on the housing ladder."

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:31 AM 4 Comments

Now we're talking!

BBC News: House prices 'see sharp decline'

House prices fell by 2.5% in March, the biggest monthly decline since September 1992, said the Halifax. The latest monthly figure from the UK's largest mortgage lender was significantly worse than average analyst predictions of a 0.4% fall.

Posted by cornishman @ 08:30 AM 33 Comments

Much larger than expected monthly fall in prices

Reuters: House prices fall in March

2.5% off in a single month - according to a City friend of mine, the markets were expecting no more than 0.5%.

Posted by tastingstars @ 08:28 AM 1 Comments

All is not ship-shape

Bristol Evening Post: Debts threaten 40,000 Bristol homes

Nearly 40,000 Bristol families are so deep in debt they face having their homes repossessed, it has been claimed. New figures show people in the south of the city are in the biggest trouble. I visited Bristol last week. they are still buildind 1 - 2 bedroom flats like they are going out odf fashion. But no-one is buying them!

Posted by onyerhike @ 08:14 AM 2 Comments

Shopkeepers sing the blues

timesonline: Jobs fear as British Retail Consortiums pleads for interest rate cut

As I wrote in a blog yesterday: " However expect bleating from retailers who will blame high interest rates for their poor product range and business models. Bail out the banks, but don't forget the retailers who have also been riding high on the wave of cheap debt, and now need to reasses their approaches." ....its like I can foretell the future and have mystic powers, NOT, samo, samo. Whats the date? Its time for VI's to make themselves heard, aided by the IMPARTIAL British Media

Posted by bystander @ 08:03 AM 2 Comments

Experts? Oh dear. We must be really stuffed then.

FT.com: Experts start to see light in credit gloom

Alarm bells start going off when "experts" start declaring things .. thats all.

Posted by whiteknight @ 12:31 AM 3 Comments

Have some of that...... it's 2002 all over baby!

CNBC: Merrill to cut 10-15% of non-broker employees

Merrill Lynch is planning to cut between 10-15% of its non-broker employees, reports CNBC and Reuters. The layoffs could impact up to 7,000 employees. This is down from earlier reports circulating that up to 25% of employees could be let go. The layoffs are due to occur in May.

Posted by lvmreader @ 12:03 AM 1 Comments

Monday, April 7, 2008

"From dream home to house of terrors"

The Times: Abbey scraps 100% mortgages, buyers will need big deposits

First-time buyers lacking a sizeable deposit will no longer be able to secure a mortgage deal. Abbey, Britains third-biggest lender, is the last big bank to abandon 100 per cent mortgages loans that cover the entire purchase price of a property. FTBs will need to save 7,500 for a 5% deposit on the average home in addition to 1500 stamp duty and arrangement fees. The move came as Barclays withdrew most of its popular fixed rate deals. 2 years ago, buyers could choose from over 120 deals offering 100%+ mortgages.

Posted by little professor @ 11:05 PM 9 Comments

Looks at some of those demand increases...

FT.com: Refinery fire pushes oil higher

When people talk about prices falling because demand falls... hmmm... demand falls where?

Posted by whiteknight @ 09:06 PM 9 Comments

Business collapses up 8.5% Q1 '08

The Publican: Business failures rise as credit crunch tightens

The number of UK business failures has increased for the first time in more than a year, as the credit crunch tightens its grip on the economy. According to global data group Experian the number of business collapses increased by 8.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2008, the first increase recorded since the end of 2006.

Posted by blister soul @ 08:26 PM 4 Comments

End of the "affordability" joke!

Times: Abbey shuts door on 100 per cent mortgages

Abbey launched its 100 per cent mortgage last June. In a letter to brokers, it said it was introducing the deal because "we recognise that many of your clients cannot afford to provide a deposit on a new home, meaning that they are often unable to secure a mortgage. Abbeys new 100 per cent mortgages provide a solution to this." Ray Boulger, of John Charcol, another mortgage broker, said: "Presumeably Abbey either no longer recognise this or if they do no longer wish to provide a solution."

Posted by confused76 @ 08:04 PM 9 Comments

Another Credit Squeeze

myfinance.co.uk: UK credit card limits cut by 3.1

Brits have seen their credit card limits cut by 3.1 billion in the last six months. Since November, 1.8 million credit card customers have seen their credit limits slashed by an average of 1,600, according to new figures from MoneyExpert.com. In February Egg cancelled the cards of 161,000 customers which it deemed to be a high risk, and many other card companies are now taking similar action with borrowers in their 20s most likely to see limits cut. "Credit card companies are becoming stricter in who they lend to and the amount of money their customers can borrow," said Sean Gardner of MoneyExpert. Overstretched consumers might look to resort to credit in a bid to make ends meet but they should not rely on it as a way of keeping spending."

Posted by plato @ 07:56 PM 8 Comments

They said no moves should be taken to increase the supply of houses when the market is diving.

nzherald: House prices 30 per cent over-valued, risk large fall - BNZ

BNZ said the boom was mostly due to over-exuberant demand factors. There was an improvement in incomes and some speculative behaviour as well.

Posted by chris @ 07:12 PM 3 Comments

Another LTV 'correction'.

Mortgage Introducer: Future Slashes LTVs

Future Mortgages has dramatically reduced the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) amounts for its full First Mortgage Product Range. Down by at least 10%.

Posted by renting2 @ 04:05 PM 0 Comments

All is now well in the UK Banking system !!

Mortgagestrategy: Fitch says UK banking system "very strong'

Fitch Ratings has called the UK banking system "very strong" in its most recent Bank Systemic Risk report. The report, issued today, says the Northern Rock episode was an isolated event and that the system retains its "very strong" rating because no other large bank in the UK has had its individual rating downgraded.

Posted by jack c @ 03:43 PM 2 Comments

The new T5 cardboard city...!

Evening Standard: A long cold night of misery at T5

OK, not related to HPC but I though it at an interesting allegory to the current financial mess. T5 is meant to be the future of airports, and just like our 'sophisticated' 21st Century Financial system, the reality is one of misery. "Snow led to more than 140 flights cancelled" - what, what, what? I live near Heathrow and it didn't settle near me! Shows how fragile the system really is.

Posted by layers @ 03:06 PM 12 Comments

Anthony Hilton - leader in today's Standard

Evening Standard: Can he do anything to halt the housing slump?

Unless you have lived through one, it is hard to imagine how brutal house price corrections can be. When prices are falling, people refuse to sell unless they have to. On the other side, people don't buy because they cannot raise the cash - and the few who can, drive hard bargains. Houses which changed hands for 1.3 million in 1988 could be bought for 650,000 in the depths of the housing bust five years later. In the mid market, a 500,000 home bought in 1988 would fetch 300,000 in 1993. Yet that barely shows in the statistics of the time, nor does the correction before that, in the mid 1970s... So don't be fooled by official figures which deal only in fuzzy averages. House-price statistics are as unreliable as estate agent's promises.

Posted by sa711 @ 01:44 PM 25 Comments

Scots desperate to avoid the inevitable

Scotland on Sunday: Teresa Hunter: Why the Bank needs to cut the interest rate by 0.5%

Scottish press still bullish on housing market but signs of desperation are showing, in this artice the author contradicts herself nicely. Summary; Cheap credit has caused this mess so lets make more cheap credit to fix it!, Sounds like a plan....NOT

Posted by geed @ 01:21 PM 2 Comments

Iran is the bull in the china shop

Telegraph: British fear US commander is beating the drum for Iran strikes

British officials gave warning yesterday that America's commander in Iraq will declare that Iran is waging war against the US-backed Baghdad government. A strong statement from General David Petraeus about Iran's intervention in Iraq could set the stage for a US attack on Iranian military facilities, according to a Whitehall assessment. 04/07/2008 Iran Calls For OPEC to Stop Selling Oil in US Dollars Conflict . Strait of Hormuz . Shipping . Oil . consumer goods . jobs . economy . houseprices. Connect the dots, replot the graphs, redraw the charts, man the lifeboats! s2r1 could be wrong! There may not be time for an information war!

Posted by malct @ 01:10 PM 11 Comments

Just To Let You Know

BBCNEWS: HSBC loses customers' data disc

The HSBC banking group has admitted losing a computer disc with the details of 370,000 customers. The disc was lost four weeks ago after being sent by courier from the bank's offices in Southampton. The customers' details included their names, dates of birth, and their levels of life insurance cover. However, there are no addresses or bank account details and HSBC said the customers' exposure to potential fraud was limited. "We are looking into it and basically it has got lost from A to B," said an HSBC spokesman.

Posted by plato @ 12:38 PM 5 Comments

we could have abolished income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax

The Adam Smith Institute: Tax Freedom Day 2008

The UK's Tax Freedom Day will fall on June 2 in 2008. That means that average Brits are spending more than five months of the year working for the Chancellor, rather than working for themselves. Government spending is set to reach 600 billion 10,000 for person in the UK, and twice as much as in 1997. If public spending had only grown in line with inflation since then, we could have abolished income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax by now, leaving the taxpayer 200 billion better off. When you factor in government borrowing the picture is even worse Tax Freedom Day does not come until June 14. Click here to visit our Tax Freedom Day website.

Posted by malct @ 12:38 PM 14 Comments

Another winter of discontent

The Guardian: Another winter of discontent

"The banks can't ignore parallels with the 1970s; they've gained unfettered power and acted with supreme recklessness"

Posted by becky @ 12:04 PM 3 Comments

Is the business cycle really inevitable?

MoneyWeek: Is the business cycle really inevitable?

The boom and the bust are lemming-like waves of folly, argues Sean Corrigan. By having banks that control both deposits and loans encourages the creation of debt and, therefore, the wheel of fate that is the business cycle. Does the current system really live up to the principles of free-market capitalism? Or do we need another Depression before we seriously review the way weve structured our financial world?

Posted by damien @ 11:54 AM 8 Comments

Greenspan says he is puzzled

FT alphaville: Don't blame me, guv; The 'Span hits back

Alan Greenspan has hit back at critics who blame the Fed under his leadership for causing the US housing bubble by keeping interest rates too low for too long in the early 2000s, saying the evidence of any link between monetary policy and the bubble was statistically very fragile.

Posted by malct @ 10:22 AM 10 Comments

Financial press starting to recognize the obvious

Financial Times: Central banks must care about house prices

"So what should a central bank do? It should seek to stabilise a broad price index, which should include not only oil and food but also a realistic measure of property prices. By this I do not mean a rental component but some element of the residential property market itself. In the UK, the all-items retail price index is one such measure (since it includes mortgages). I know that broad inflation indices are annoying from a central banks perspective. Those indices do not react well to policy action. But the goal of monetary policy surely cannot be to make life easy for central bankers." And who was it that switched the inflation target from RPI to CPI?

Posted by richc @ 09:57 AM 10 Comments

Stephen King has gone mad

Independent: Stephen King: From Pope Pius VII to the credit crunch, market failure lives on

He says that the only way out of the credit crunch is to raise the age of retirement and states, that a solution is to give financial education to the masses and create more regulations, that banks are not to blame, that they are innocent bystanders of market forces!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:26 AM 9 Comments

10 bottles of water, and one bottle has poison in it

information clearing house: Fed Up: Bernanke joins G-7 to Stem Global Financial Meltdown

If you have 10 bottles of water, and one bottle has poison in it, and you don't know which one, you probably wont drink out of any of the 10 bottles; thats basically what weve got here. Bulls-eye. O' Neill's answer is the best yet for explaining a complex situation in simple terms. The term subprime is a red herring; it is used by the media to minimize what is really going on. The meltdown in financing extends across the entire range of mortgage-security products. No loan-type has been spared. The wholesale market for anything connected to mortgages is frozen and the details are being intentionally withheld from the public.

Posted by malct @ 09:09 AM 3 Comments

How ironic is it that the jewels in the crown of British motoring have been sold off to the Jewel in the Crown of the former Empire

321GOLD Smirking Chimp: Sour Sixteen - or, The Dirty Diaper Theory

In the months preceding the Los Angeles Riots of 1992, there was a palpable level of tension in the air, as if one knew something was going to blow, and when it did the level of destruction that winter was the worst man-made destruction of an American city since the Civil War. What is different now is that China and India have awakened over those 16 years from being third world countries whose consumer products were novelty goods at Pier One to now being flat-out competitors. It was disclosed this week that GM sold more Buicks in China than they did in the United States in 2007. Jaguar and Land Rover were sold to Tata Motors of India. because neither BMW nor Ford could figure out how to make a profit off them?

Posted by malct @ 08:33 AM 0 Comments

Reality is finally setting in

Guardian: Batten down the hatches: this is the big one

These are strange times for the MPC. In the face of such a shock to the economy as this credit crunch, it has to be wondered whether any of its forecasting models are of any use. It is about mentality - the fear and greed syndrome. House prices are not going to drift quietly sideways over the next few years while average earnings catch up. They are going to fall sharply. I would be surprised if they don't fall by a quarter or more over the next two years.

Posted by pendulum @ 08:22 AM 13 Comments

smaller players being merged into the bigger players, or else swept away;

The Market Oracle: The Real Reasons for the Credit Crisis

One thing experience has taught is that every notable market crash, panic, bear market or financial crisis is the result of careful planning and forethought by the monetary authorities. As the economist Dr. Stuart Crane was fond of saying, Things [in the monetary world] don't just happen to happen. They happen because they were planned to happen. And it's no coincidence that in every case, a financial crisis always yields the following results: 1.) Greater consolidation within the banking and financial industry with the smaller players being merged into the bigger players, or else swept away; 2.) Greater regulator powers for the monetary authorities.

Posted by malct @ 08:08 AM 1 Comments

According to Strauss-Kahn, central banks around the world are constrained in their ability to battle the growth risks by high commodity prices

ft: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of The International Monetary Fund, warned that market turmoil will take a serious toll on world growth and called for government intervention at a global level to tackle the ongoing credit crisis

I really think that the need for public intervention is becoming more evident," according to the FT. Government intervention, Strauss-Kahn said, would act as a "third line of defense" to support monetary and fiscal policy. Strauss-Kahn also said the credit crisis was not a problem only in the U.S. "The crisis is global,Strauss-Kahn called for efforts to be made on loan restructuring, the FT reported. He said "With respect to the banks, if capital buffers cannot be repaired quickly The IMF this week will revise down its global economic forecasts to below the current private and official consensus, he said, according to the FT. "The forecasts we are going to release in a few days are not very optimistic.

Posted by chris @ 12:36 AM 0 Comments

Roger Bootle explains the coming crash

Telegraph: Tide has turned on ludicrous house-price over-inflation

..and considers a new affordability measure that shows that prices are at their least affordable. "But this will not be a minor adjustment. In the early 1990s house prices fell for four years. This bubble has been bigger so it is perfectly plausible that prices will fall for longer than that. But can it really be worse than the early 1990s? Some factors are different. Unemployment will not rise as far and the economy will not be as weak. But this time round we have the credit crunch and the downturn will be exacerbated by the flow of buy-to-let properties released on to the market - particularly now that capital gains tax will be only 18pc."

Posted by mark @ 12:23 AM 6 Comments

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Tensions between inflation-obsessed Germany and growth-hungry Latin countries will spell its end.

forbes: The Demise of the Euro

is only a matter of time, probably less than three years, until the euro experiment meets its end. The financial crisis in the U.S. is hastening the process, as investors flee the dollar, pushing the euro to a price of $1.59. But it will not stay high for long. Countries like Spain and Italy will withdraw and return to their old currencies. Once that happens, get ready for the return of the deutsche mark and the French franc.

Posted by chris @ 10:28 PM 23 Comments

Banks to receive more cheap money

Scotland on Sunday: Teresa Hunter: Why the Bank needs to cut the interest rate by 0.5%

This is quite a good article, especially the bit about CPI not including HPI, but Teresa Hunter completely forgets to mention the dire state the currency would be in, if such massive rate cuts happened, maybe she holidays in the Scottish lochs but for all who eat, use, sell imported goods or travel in the eurozone it is all going to get very, very expensive. UK tourism is about to get very, very busy. Influx of eurozone tourists, making the most of their exchange rate and UK households who cannot afford to go th the Costas or Tenegrief, so buy a hotel or two. This may be the only section of the UK hosing market which bucks the trend, at least until sterling recovers, or we begin to use the euro.

Posted by bystander @ 10:21 PM 4 Comments

Philip Shaw, economist at Investec gives his views on the housing/mortgage market

FT: Downbeat data adds pressure for rate cut

A rash of gloomy data over the past week has shortened the odds of a rate cut by the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee on Thursday, economists say. Of 63 economists polled by Reuters last week, 48 said they expected the MPC, headed by Mervyn King, to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 5 per cent. That view was echoed in money markets where overnight sterling interest rates suggested an 80 per cent chance of a rate cut by Thursday night.

Posted by jack c @ 08:29 PM 7 Comments

They can't wait to offer a more expensive deal

BUSINESS,scotsman.com: Act fast to grab a decent mortgage

THE mortgage crisis deepened last week with more lenders pushing up borrowing costs and a further 800 loans pulled, leaving homeowners fighting over less than a third of the deals available last July. Cheltenham & Gloucester, Royal Bank of Scotland, Halifax, Direct Line, Standard Life and Woolwich are among lenders to have raised rates by up to 0.8%. The Yorkshire Building Society is also repricing this weekend, although its zero-fee offers remain available. A Yorkshire spokesman said: "Rather than competing to get into the best-buy tables, we are now all competing to stay out of them."

Posted by plato @ 07:15 PM 9 Comments

Satirical cartoon

politicalhumor: Heck of a Job Economy

If we are to have any hope of reaching the general public, a degree of satire is necessary. This particular item is a cartoon. Now, some of you may say that you are above such things, but it makes a point with most of the main issues, all in one picture and one glance. Substitute Bush for Brown and you would have an appropriate cartoon for the UK. For those who didn't delete and harass about the last daily mash posting, I brought forward this satire posting for your benefit. So, for a discussion, what would you include in a satire cartoon for the current UK economy? Or does this picture do the job? Also, in relation to posts earlier, does this picture inform the average person on the street better than a dry article in the economist? Or is it a waste of space?

Posted by planning4acrash @ 05:23 PM 24 Comments

Who says we aren't heading for 15% interest rates!

Scotland on Sunday: Why the Bank needs so cut interest rates 0.5%

Who says we arent't heading for those heady days of interest rates at 15%? Well think again we are heading that way quick style. Dont forget when we had rates of 15% years ago we also had miras as well. You deduct your tax relief and the real rate came down to 10%. Well I dont know about you lot but with the product fees now on most deals there is little borrowing on mortgage loans now under 7% and I suspect most loans approaching 7.25%. Ever closer to that 10% figure !

Posted by doomberger @ 04:34 PM 0 Comments

BTL novices could get hit big time.

This Is Money: Buy-to-let novices face mortgage ruin

You have plenty of equity in your home and an impeccable credit record - yet, as we report in the first part of a mortgages special, even you may struggle to find an affordable mortgage. But those who should really be worried are borrowers at the high-risk end of the mortgage spectrum - such as amateur landlords for whom the mortgage famine could cost everything.

Posted by garyb @ 03:39 PM 2 Comments

America's biggest ever housing bubble, with 57 varieties of exotic mortgages

Huffington Post: The Destructive Rise of Big Finance

From our American friends... "The most important underpinning of financialization lay in the perpetual liquidity and bail-out support of the Federal Reserve Board under Alan Greenspan. During Greenspan's 1987-2005 tenure, the sum of public and private debt in the United States quadrupled from just over $10 trillion to $43 trillion. Finance became the industry that was not allowed to fail but was permitted to enlarge and metastasize its behavior almost at will. Regulation was minimal. Favoritism was omnipresent. --- Today, the economic negligence of Washington and Wall Street, more than two decades in the making, has led to a multi-dimensional crisis in which this country faces an unprecedented convergence of problems."

Posted by drewster @ 03:11 PM 3 Comments

Repossessions getting political in the UK

Guardian: Labour MPs' fury over homes crisis

"Gordon Brown's government came under attack from one of his closest allies last night (Saturday) for failing to help families threatened with losing their homes in the credit crisis. George Mudie, a senior member of the Treasury select committee, called for ministers to strike an urgent deal with lenders to delay repossessions and help struggling householders through short-term difficulties". Ministers' insistence that the economy is sound are failing to reassure householders, Mudie said. 'Their answer to any problem is "This is the most stable economy we have had in our history".

Posted by alan @ 02:33 PM 5 Comments

Ask a silly question ....

Sunday Times: Are house prices really set to plunge?

Quite an informative article, actually. I like the way they use the expression 'property porn'. The most mind-bogglingly stupid quote is from a 'senior Treasury official People are facing higher mortgage rates but it is not remotely on the scale of the early 1990s. Er, in the early 1990s, household debt was a third of what it is now. So a 1% increase in interest rates now is as bad as a 3% increase in the early 1990s.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:10 PM 9 Comments

The credit crunch taking us to severe housepricecrash.

Financial Times: Third of UK housing deals fall through

HBOS, the UK's biggest mortgage lender, on Friday increased its minimum deposit to 5 per cent from 3 per cent, and said it would penalise those borrowers putting up less than a 25 per cent deposit on the property.The effect of the lending freeze, and falling house prices, has been severe, with transactions down between 30 and 35 per cent, according to leading sales portal Rightmove. he number of estate agency office closures has more than doubled to about 10 per cent as a result, according to Ed Williams, managing director of Rightmove. Deals are becoming difficult to secure, say agents. "The fall-through rate has gone up dramatically in recent weeks to around 35 per cent," said Marc Goldberg, head of residential sales at Hamptons International.

Posted by mytimeisnigh @ 01:12 PM 0 Comments

Capt Darling wants the Big Bailout - we pay

Observer: It's goodbye housing boom and hello sub-prime Britain

Another great idea from our leaders. But it won't work: "Even if such a scheme sees the light of day - and it may not, given the amount of contentious detail involved - a return of confidence to the wholesale markets will not mean that the credit taps are turned on again for consumers and homebuyers."

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:36 PM 11 Comments

People will suffer from the crash, but may also be bailed-out

Guardian: How first-time buyers' dreams are shattered

"If home values do fall sharply, the biggest victims will be the young people who climbed on to the property ladder right at its peak"...."Tony Boorman, the head of the Financial Ombudsman Service, said that homeowners who have been given mortgages they cannot afford to repay could be in line for thousands of pounds of compensation in what could be the next big financial mis-selling scandal". Why does taking care of your own finances always mean you lose out?

Posted by ed @ 12:22 PM 0 Comments

Has this woman not been keeping up?

Scotsman: Teresa Hunter: Why the Bank needs to cut the interest rate by 0.5%

Short article about why the BoE MUST cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points next week. Does she not realise that the banks are not passing on any cuts but are in the process of doing the exact opposite at this moment in time. Oh and she quotes CPI at 2.5% as some sort of factual figure. MMMM?

Posted by flintster @ 12:17 PM 0 Comments

HPC is getting political in the USA

SKY: McCain Warns Over US Economic Crisis

Republican presidential candidate John McCain has highlighted the severity of America's economic crisis as US house prices continue to fall and unemployment rises

Posted by alan @ 11:19 AM 3 Comments

You Can Win When House Prices Slide!

The Times: Business News

Well so says the Times today! Read all about it.

Posted by orwell @ 10:50 AM 0 Comments

SCT Gnrl is launching a new card offering six months interest-free credit on balance transfers of up to 50 billion.


Use the card to buy a new hat, some DVDs and the charming, copper-rich state of Burkina Faso.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:35 AM 24 Comments

C4: a VI?

NMA: C4 launches oversees property portal

after the reams and reams of property porn.. now comes this play to capitalise on it.. anyone think that they may have left it a little bit too late?

Posted by alan lubin @ 09:45 AM 0 Comments

Scottish Builders Getting Nervous

Scotland on Sunday: Learning Home Truths

VIs still trying to talk up the market, but they don't sound very convincing. "But behind closed doors, the picture doesn't seem quite so rosy. According to one leading house builder, who asked to remain anonymous, there are concerns in the industry about the recent change in lending conditions, particularly for first-time buyers."

Posted by scunnered @ 07:40 AM 0 Comments

The crash comes to Scotland

Scotland on Sunday: House prices grind to a halt in squeeze

HOUSE prices in Scotland are now at a virtual standstill with the global credit crunch and the mortgage squeeze starting to affect owners throughout the country. Figures to be published this week will reveal that house price inflation in east central Scotland, where double-digit rises have been common for the past eight years, dropped to less than 2% in the first quarter of 2008.

Posted by scunnered @ 07:36 AM 0 Comments

Even the VIs know the game is up

Independent: Will prices tumble like a house of cards?

Mortgage lenders are bracing themselves for a slump in property prices of up to 20 per cent, The Independent on Sunday can reveal. A housing market collapse, wiping an average of 40,000 off a home, is now being discussed by lenders. Lenders had until recently predicted a small fall in house prices of no more than 5 per cent. But recent turmoil has spooked banks into thinking that a general crash is now more likely. "Whereas in the past we were modelling for a 5 or 10 per cent property price fall, we are now testing against a 15 or 20 per cent fall," explains Matthew Bullock, chief executive at Norwich and Peterborough building society. Bank group Lehman Brothers went further last month and said that it expected house prices to have fallen 8 per cent by the end of next year.

Posted by little professor @ 02:08 AM 25 Comments

HPC gets a mention

Independent: Get off the property ladder

According to Jonathan Davis, an independent financial adviser and spokes- man for website housepricecrash.co.uk, this eventuality is certain. "I am amazed that it's only 18 per cent of home movers who have abandoned the property ladder for this reason," he comments. "Seemingly, people still haven't got it into their heads that house prices are falling. "Annual price inflation has already dropped from 10 per cent to 1 per cent in just eight months, according to Nationwide which is the start of what I predict will be a 33 per cent fall during the next four to five years," he adds. Mr Davis, himself a tenant, says: "House prices are going to fall. We pay 1,800 a month in rent and live in an 800,000 house on a two-year lease."

Posted by little professor @ 02:00 AM 17 Comments

Attempt to Comfort Mortgage Borrowers

The Times: Are house prices really set to plunge?

It's nothing to worry about: "It sounds desperate, but predictions of an imminent crash have been proved wrong on many occasions in recent years. It is worth remembering that five years ago the IMF also said Britains house prices were 30% overvalued and they proceeded to soar. There is an element of psychology at work: with gloom about the market all-pervasive, every weak morsel of information is seized upon."

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:33 AM 10 Comments

Saturday, April 5, 2008

What a crock

BBC: Super Rich : The Greed Game

I have nothing against wealth accumulation provided the people are doing something for it - and they don't expect me to bail them out when they fail.

Posted by whiteknight @ 11:27 PM 4 Comments

Things are looking distinctly Rocky...

Economist: Northern Rock | What Lies Beneath

"The nationalised bank's mortgage book looks less than healthy. Whereas many of its rivals were slowing their lending and looking for safer customers [in 2007], Northern Rock had put the accelerator down and was taking on ever-riskier clients. The value of loans on its books worth 95% or more of the property's value almost doubled; indeed, those worth more than 100% quadrupled [including the infamous 125% "Together" mortgage]. Northern Rock's rush to write risky mortgages also embraced the buy-to-let market. But the buy-to-let market may be especially vulnerable to a downturn. Estate agents reckon that many landlords are letting out properties at a loss and that the value of newly built flats is plummeting. More worrying still, NR's repossession of homes is three times the average."

Posted by drewster @ 11:07 PM 6 Comments

Seeking A Cure For The Credit Crunch

The Times: Business News

Pray do tell us Mr. Smith. What do you suggest is the solution to something you refused to accept existed only 6 or so months ago?

Posted by orwell @ 10:59 PM 0 Comments

Grossly irresponsible

The Herald: How to beat the credit crunch

Here are ten tips for FTBs: 1. Beg a deposit from your parents 2. Buy with your parents 3. Get your parents to act as a guarantor 4. If your parents won't help out you could buy with friends or siblings 5. Extend the term of the loan 6. Take out an interest-only mortgage 7. Seek government help in shared-ownership schemes 8. Lower your sights. Maybe you could squeeze into a one bedroom flat instead of a 2-bed 9. Play the waiting game. This could prove risky if property inflation continues to rise. 10. Go abroad to get on the property ladder

Posted by little professor @ 09:05 PM 11 Comments

Why is this happening in Europe, but not in teh UK???

forex factory: EU unions rally to push for pay hikes

"He said that the unions also wanted 'to tell the finance ministers and (Jean-Claude) Trichet, the boss of the European Central Bank, that it's not workers who should pay the price of the crisis we are seeing.'" ....and the difference between this and the situation in the UK is????????????

Posted by bystander @ 08:27 PM 4 Comments

The seeds of mistrust and healthy scepticism

BBC News: Fact check: Did Blair lie over WMD?

In relation to refutes to my earlier posts, I think its great 2 question the sceptics. One can only be a true sceptic if one is sceptical of the sceptics. What I am suggesting is that we are open to the idea that we are being lied to about the current financial situation & 9/11 is the mother of all lies that should destroy our trust in mainstream media & politics. The reason for posting this particular article, & the point I wish to make is, that we all know that us Brits were lied to in the run up to the Iraq war. We also know that the presidential election in Florida that elected Bush was extremely suspect. If the British Government could lie a nation into war, it is not a great leap of imagination that the USA, the main aggressor, could do the same, about 9/11, Iraq & the credit crunch.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 05:46 PM 20 Comments

Another BTL nightmare ...

BBC News: Police warn of Cannabis Homes

''Police are urging landlords to be wary of tenants who pay cash in advance and are then difficult to contact for site visits. Officers described the premises as a "fully functioning cannabis plantation" and in "an advanced state of cultivation". '' No sh*t, Sherlock ...

Posted by montesquieu @ 03:45 PM 4 Comments

The end of the road

Independent: Soros predicts end of the road for cheap and easy borrowing

The substantial side of the Independent. Soros thinks we are facing an historic event as the era of cheap money comes to an end. You can almost hear the sound of VIs falling silent.

Posted by letthemfall @ 03:44 PM 9 Comments

Stockmarkets: prepare for a nasty hangover

MoneyWeek: Prepare for a very nasty hangover

Week round-up: pundits have been hoping the worst may be over after the panic surrounding Bear Stearns near-collapse. But until the US housing market - the root cause of the credit crunch - bottoms out, jitters are likely to continue.

Posted by damien @ 01:59 PM 0 Comments

Peak Credit

Asia Times: Peak Credit - a Flight to Simplicity

My take is that we have now seen "Peak Credit" (ie a maximum - "peak" - level of Bank credit). The solution may lie in: (a) "mutualisation" of credit necessary to build new properties; (b) replacement of secured credit by new forms of investment in property - "unitisation"- using the unintended consequences of new legal vehicles such as the UK Limited Liability Partnership as a framework. On the one hand financing is affordable, because there is no debt repayment, and the cost is index-linked. On the other there is a simple new form of long term investment.

Posted by chris cook @ 01:04 PM 0 Comments

Lynchpin issue.

Google Video: Loose Change 3, Final Cut.

We are divided between those who are observing the banking crisis as a natural result of economic cycles. Others, including me, feel that our debt bubble has been induced by a banking elite, in collaboration with a UK government, in order to destroy Sterling (which is falling faster than the Dollar, lost over 20% of its value since summer) in order to push us into the Euro, willingly, as a solution. And we accepted the bubble, voluntarily, because of the house price wealth it provided. A strong American dollar blocks an American union, a strong Zimbabwe blocks an African union. Bankers can only control our currencies if they break strong countries. Your position on 9/11 will be crucial to which side you fall. This is a more up to date version than the one posted last weekend in a subthread

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:13 PM 54 Comments

Why you cant believe a word our leaders say

MoneyWeek: Why you cant believe a word our leaders say

Politicans and business people are rarely known for their honesty. But recent attempts by Gordon Brown and others to boost confidence in our economy and financial system have really taken the biscuit...

Posted by damien @ 10:46 AM 2 Comments

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

FT: Third of UK housing deals fall through

"Buyers are discovering that money is not available in spite of agreeing on a purchase, according to estate agents, or that the bank valuation of their house fails to match the price agreed. The number of mortgages on offer has fallen sharply this week. By Friday, 22 per cent of deals available a week earlier had been withdrawn, according to Moneyfacts.co.uk."

Posted by cheekie charlie @ 10:42 AM 0 Comments

More of the same trend

Times: Credit crunch: Halifax will now insist on larger deposits

Is the Times scaremongering for a base rate cut this week, although it will make sod all difference to mortgage rates and availabilities? Note also the comment: 'European Union finance ministers and the European Central Bank agreed that shareholders would not be bailed out with public money in a cross-border bank collapse'. So if Santander goes bust those in the UK with Abbey shares, which are really Santander shares now, won't get a penny.

Posted by fed up @ 10:32 AM 0 Comments

China implements real free-markets

FT.com: On Asia: China in too deep to gloat over subprime

"The US government is hyperactive, but China watches our money get wiped out and does nothing." one investor wrote on Friday on eastmoney.com, a popular stocks chatroom." . China takes the free-market thing too literally and actually implements them with regard to the financial markets!! This is opposed to the system we have where the banks are too important to fail (and therefore the bankers) but nobody else is.

Posted by whiteknight @ 10:32 AM 3 Comments

Mortgage Lender Turns into Bloodsucking Vampire

Telegraph: 800 fee as lenders cash in on credit crisis

"Mortgage costs rose further yesterday as a building society became the first major lender to charge borrowers to take out a standard variable rate home loan. Skipton said customers will now have to pay 800 for its 6.7 per cent deal." How long before other lenders do the same?

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:30 AM 8 Comments

Confessions of a BTLer

Telegraph: Will buy-to-let rock the property market?

Where did it all begin? For Janie Dix, it was watching too many episodes of Location, Location, Location and Sex and the City. "Buying and renting property seemed so easy and I fancied a bit of glamour," recalls the 32-year-old. "So I bought two apartments in Leeds: one for myself and one to let." Where did it all end? For Dix,it was under the hammer at her local auctioneers. She thought the flats she bought for a total of 300,000 three years ago, on a 95 per cent mortgage, would be worth 450,000 by now. Instead, the two were sold last month for 250,000. "The rent didn't cover the mortgage. Looking back, I should have checked out market rents or prices with local agents. I keep asking myself, 'How could I have been such a moron?"

Posted by little professor @ 12:57 AM 13 Comments

Reality Bites

The Independent: Thrifty Living: I've become a lean, mean running and saving machine

Rosie Millard shares her woes. Three years interest-only with a 5% fix. It'll end in tears.

Posted by crash bandicoot @ 12:39 AM 13 Comments

Friday, April 4, 2008

Mundane article until they drag out the example citizens

Telegraph: Sitting comfortably? The credit crunch affects you too

Page 2: Former shopfitter Claude and Dance Teacher Micheala have always stretched themselves and lived beyond their means to get where they are. Two years ago, he gave up his work to concentrate on building up a buy-to-let portfolio, which now encompasses 11 Tyneside flats and the couple have more than 1m in outstanding mortgage debt, most of which is on an interest-only basis.

Posted by enuii @ 11:26 PM 10 Comments

God forbid they lower the actual selling price.

Irish Independent: Developer offers 'free' car with new home

Desperate home builders giving free car with new homes in bid to shift new builds. Anything to not lower the asking price and admit prices are going.

Posted by damo @ 10:12 PM 5 Comments

Its worse than we thought!

EBay: Bank Repo 2Bed 1Bath Own Pool Costa Blanca Spain

This property is a bank repossession and is being sold to recover the banks debt. The property is being sold for the money that is owed to the bank rather than for the value that it is worth. This is over 30000 cheaper than similar properties in this area. Serious bidders only because this property will be sold within the next few weeks. We have lots more bank repos so ring me on 01362 687910 with your requirements. Starting bid 0.99p No offers yet!!!!!!!! Make your bid.

Posted by cheekie charlie @ 10:11 PM 3 Comments

WASHINGTON, DCPlagued by late fees, high interest rates, and harassing creditors, the U.S. took out a debt-consolidation loan Monday, combining the nation's $6.1 trillion debt into a single, easy monthly payment.

The Onion: U.S. Takes Out Debt-Consolidation Loan

"I was definitely skeptical about E-Z Debt, as were many of my colleagues," Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) said. "I'd heard horror stories about those debt services. England used one to get out of a recession in the late '80s, and they're still paying for it."

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:46 PM 1 Comments

THE government is offering 7 an hour to anyone who will have a weekly pint of beer with Chancellor Alistair Darling.


Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, Nicholas McPherson, said: "He just needs a bit of human interaction now and again, but unfortunately none of his cabinet colleagues want to be seen with him in public.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:42 PM 2 Comments

How Tight Can You Be?

ReutersUK: Details of MPs expenses revealed

LONDON (Reuters) - Details of the expenses of six leading members of parliament were revealed on Friday and showed that former prime minister Tony Blair claimed 116 pounds for his TV licence. The details were released after a three-year battle by the BBC to make the claims known under freedom of information rules. Michael Martin, the speaker of the House of Commons, had tried to keep the expenses secret. The information was released by Martin to the BBC after the House of Commons authorities decided not to appeal against the Information Commissioner's ruling that they were wrong to withhold the details any longer.

Posted by plato @ 08:56 PM 0 Comments

Is it different this time?

Chanel 4: Property Ladder: The New Series Returns Soon

They've refurbished and sold on the family home an incredible 13 times in the last 28 years and now think they have what it takes to succeed in their first real development - a Tudor-style detached property in Windsor. They couldn't be more wrong. This series must be quite current so there will be no rampant inflation covering up their mistakes. Undoubdtedly there will be some losses made. Hopefully this should help to silence the likes of the "Bricks Chicks".

Posted by crash bandicoot @ 08:55 PM 19 Comments

This is for starters!

BBC: Up to 60,000 'face repossession'

"The study focuses on home owners that are spending 75% of their disposable income on mortgage repayments." But, but I thought the average was nearer 20%? Ah I see this is when you include people who bought in 20 years before 2002! "The government recently pledged 76m to continue the provision of free face-to-face money advice until 2011." Pay your debts off, rent a room out, get a second job. Wow 76m well spent!

Posted by cheekie charlie @ 08:15 PM 3 Comments

Will this be a UK headline by June?

Telegraph: Foreign banks flee Spanish property debt

Some interesting pointers for the UK as International banks scramble to sell their holdings of Spanish mortgage debt at a steep discount after a blizzard of grim data. Car Sales down 28% in march and 40,000 estate agents shut up shop and lay off 120,000 staff!

Posted by enuii @ 07:54 PM 3 Comments

US banks don't want the empty houses!

Bloomberg: Lenders Swamped By Foreclosures Let Homeowners Stay

Banks are so overwhelmed by the U.S. housing crisis they've started to look the other way when homeowners stop paying their mortgages.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 06:57 PM 12 Comments

HPC's Jonathan Davis in the news again

Telegraph: Plant the seeds for a successful house move

This is in the Telegraph and not the Mash by the way ! - With rumours of a housing crash, sellers are going to great lengths to secure a sale, whether it is buying sheep to put on the front lawn of their country house or by offering to pay the new owner's mortgage for six months.

Posted by jack c @ 05:52 PM 7 Comments

First quarter fall in house prices for a decade?

Firstrung: UK house prices fall by 1.7% in first quarter of 2008 - Nationwide

"The annual rate of house price growth slowed dramatically in every part of the UK in the first quarter of 2008, bringing the average rate in the UK down to less than a third of the rate at the end of 2007. The annual rate of house price growth in the first quarter of 2008 was 2.2%, down from 6.9% at the end of 2007. House prices slowed most sharply in Northern Ireland where the annual rate fell from 24.2% to -3.4%, but this still leaves average prices more than 15,000 higher than at the end of 2006." - Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist.

Posted by converted lurker @ 05:37 PM 6 Comments

Banks and loan companies accused of fuelling the country's debt mountain through irresponsible lending

Sky News: Lenders 'Making Debt Crisis Even Worse'

Britain's banks and loan companies have been accused of fuelling the country's debt mountain through irresponsible lending. They gave out 20.9bn in unsecured cash last year without asking for proof of income, according to finance comparison site uSwitch.com. It says large numbers of people who take out a "consolidation" loan to lump all their debts together go on to be even deeper in the red. Almost 1.3 million loans were issued for this purpose last year but fewer than one in four borrowers used the money to pay off their existing debts.

Posted by jack c @ 05:23 PM 1 Comments

Uk Housing - Sell Everything!!

FT Alphaville: Uk Housing - Sell Everything!!

Housebuilders breaking ranks to sell new builds at a discount. Competing with each other to cash in ahead of market declines. Guys - this begins to look like a bit of a panic.

Posted by james @ 04:47 PM 0 Comments

Another One???

Mortgage Introducer: Salt withdraws from market

"Citing 'unprecedented' volumes of applications in the last 24-hours, Salt alerted intermediaries to its immediate withdrawal first thing this morning." Where is this 'unprecedented demand' coming from? They wouldn't have complained about that a year ago. The rest of the short article is confused as they will come out with another range on Monday.

Posted by renting2 @ 04:29 PM 5 Comments

Brilliant idea on solving financial crisis

FT: Call for action on US house market

Besides the usual drivel about government intervention, The IIF also said there was an "urgent need" for policymakers to consider changes to mark-to-market accounting rules to avoid "unintended procyclical consequences which could prolong credit market problems". In plain English, that means allowing banks to lie in their accounts and overstate their profits and assets.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:58 PM 6 Comments

Hot off the press - The latest decisive move by the UK's biggest mortgage lender

Moneymarketing: Halifax to penalise borrowers with deposits of less than 25%

Halifax has introduced a new Loan to Value banding system which will see borrowers with less than 25 per cent deposit charged 0.14 per cent more.The lender will be introducing, from Monday, three LTV bands replacing its current two groupings. The first band will be for LTVs of 0 to 75 per cent, the second will consist of LTVs between 75 to 90 per cent, with the last at 90 to 95 per cent. HBOS spokesman says We will reward customers for their prudence.

Posted by jack c @ 01:48 PM 15 Comments

Julia Goldsworthy - Lib Dem - "ministers are not prepared to deal with the housing crash as the safety nets have been withdrawn"

Mortgagestrategy: Nearly 60,000 UK households at risk of repossession

Nearly 60,000 homes in the UK are at high risk of repossession, government figures reveal. Figures from the Housing Statistics 2007 report, published today by the Department of Communities and Local Government, show that almost 60,000 families with disposable incomes below 1,000 each month are paying 750 a month on mortgage payments.

Posted by jack c @ 01:40 PM 2 Comments

Are we ruled by morons?

FT: New consensus on market slowdown

The interesting bit in the articles is right at the end "Capital Economics argued recently that it was flawed to take comfort from the fact that low interest rates compared with the late 1980s had raised housings affordability. Ed Stansfield ... notes that lower expected inflation will prolong the years when mortgages impose a high cost on households finances and, if mortgages are judged on the basis of the full life of a mortgage, housing affordability has never been worse. House prices relative to earnings may still be a more relevant indicator of housing market conditions than most people are prepared to acknowledge. I thought that everybody knew this. Except, as ever, the people in government.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:05 PM 20 Comments

UK most vulnerable to crash

MoneyWeek: Why this housing crash could be worse than the 1990s

"Of course, this has been obvious to anyone with any sense and has been for a long time. High house prices arent about supply and demand, or rising incomes theyve been all about availability of credit for years now. And thats vanishing rapidly, even for wealthy buyers. C&G now demands a 200,000 deposit if you want to borrow 1m, double what it was at the start of this week. So much for the unassailable London market."

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:51 AM 26 Comments

No surprises here

BBC News: Families planning spending cuts

Proof - if any were needed - of negative sentiment in the consumer sector. When people feel like this, they don't seek bigger houses, or pressure their kids to get a place of their own

Posted by uncle tom @ 11:37 AM 6 Comments

Are they are coming to take away your (the banks) home ?

Spectator: Welcome to subprime Britain. How scared should you be?

"All over the country, the borrowed penny is dropping. It dropped on me about 3.30 a.m. on the day my wife and I exchanged on our first house the very day, as it happens, that Mervyn King first announced that the winged horsemen of the financial apocalypse would be galloping towards us. I slept for about 20 minutes that night ..."

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:32 AM 2 Comments

Says It All Really

Telegraph Online: Houses are overpriced by a third, says IMF

This article reports UK house prices are over-valued by one-third. Given downward momentum, I believe house prices could reasonably be expected to drop by 40% from peak. I especially like the line "According to all the major house price surveys, prices have, over the past six months, been falling at the fastest rate since the early 1990s." I wonder when the subsequent knock-on affect to the wider economy will occur. By my estimates, we are 14 months behind the USA.

Posted by talking rot @ 10:37 AM 24 Comments

Expect outrageous tax-payer funded bailouts very soon!

Telegraph: Financial crisis threatens Labour heartlands

According to the analysis, most of the 5.1 million households in danger are in Labour strongholds. Here, Robert Winnett, the Telegraph's Deputy Political Editor, analyses the implications for Gordon Brown - now that he has realised the credit crunch is having a serious effect on the voting public:

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:19 AM 14 Comments

Demonstrations against US government plans to help those who took on too much debt

Financial Times: Homeowner bail-out hits restsiance

There are many in the US who are openly demonstrating against plans to help those who overstretched. They are saying people who took on too much debt (and those who gave it) do not deserve help.

Posted by new user 2007 @ 10:09 AM 10 Comments

Hands are being kept in pockets by mutuals

Firstrung: Loans for mortgage approvals by building societies fall by 27% year on year

Net lending by building societies is down compared to this time last year. This suggests the lower levels of activity in the housing market reported by the Land Registry yesterday for December are continuing into 2008.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:51 AM 2 Comments

What is the story here?

The Telegraph: Exposing Russia's corporate 'corruption'

Bill Browder, whose $4bn (2bn) Hermitage Capital Management hedge fund is largely invested in the former Soviet republic, is fighting back after allegedly being targeted by gangs trying to seize hundreds of millions of dollars of Hermitage's cash and assets

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:22 AM 14 Comments

Are you in a subprime zone?

Telegraph: British subprime risk areas by constituency

This is a pretty comprehensive look at the UK's subprime hotspots. Oh - last year we were told that there is no subprime in the UK.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:12 AM 11 Comments

The "Experts" are at it again !!

Telegraph: Interest rate cut 'odds-on' as economy weakens

The Bank of England is now odds-on to cut interest rates next week, experts said, after new figures indicated that the economy is at its weakest in five years and that the mortgage drought is set to worsen.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:02 AM 24 Comments

UK is tail-gating Spain into the Abyss

The Telegraph: Foreign banks flee Spanish property debt

International banks are scrambling to sell their holdings of Spanish mortgage debt at a steep discount, fearing that the country may be sliding into the worst economic downturn in its modern history.

Just say the D word, Ambrose - you know you want to.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:32 AM 2 Comments

Tell us something we don't know!

BBC "News": Families 'planning spending cuts'

"A typical family in Middle Britain may have a higher than average income, but millions are weighed down by high lifestyle costs and face tough choices as the strain on their finances takes its toll. "One of the biggest issues, however, is that many seemingly well-off households lack the motivation to tackle their problems. "We've had it easy for so long and been happily spending without thinking of the consequences, that now people aren't sure what to do."

Posted by dave the box @ 08:27 AM 0 Comments

Houses follow commercial drops - usually

Times online: Acacia Avenue could catch Commercial Street chill

"Where commercial property goes, so goes housing. If that old relationship holds true in this cycle, house prices could be in for a very nasty fall indeed." Good reply so far.

Posted by eeyore @ 07:59 AM 0 Comments

Things aren't looking too good in the world of BTL

Guardian: Landlords' agony could be contagious

Buy-to-let risks being the brick that knocks the housing market down as the one-time can't-lose route to millionaire status unravels. Amateur landlords are facing big jumps in mortgage repayments - assuming they can find a loan as the credit crunch forces lenders out of the market. Many will give up and hand in the keys - especially those who bought newly built flats in the past two years, some of which have halved in value.

Posted by scunnered @ 05:28 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, April 3, 2008

After 17 years of economic growth Australia is facing a less certain future as fears grow that a recession in the US will drag others into its vortex.

heraldsun: AUSTRALIA now has a 20-25 per cent chance of falling into a recession over the next 18 months, according to a leading economic forecaster.

Goldman Sachs JBWere is tipping the global economic slowdown will combine with an expected flurry of negative corporate earnings over the next few months to push the economy towards a hard landing. Only hours after US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, the world's most powerful central banker, admitted for the first time the US was on the verge of a recession, Goldman Sachs JBWere chief economist Tim Toohey yesterday rated a recession in Australia a 20-25 per cent possibility.

Posted by chris @ 11:27 PM 0 Comments

High risk of house price slump: IMF


High risk of house price slump: IMF

Posted by chris @ 11:16 PM 10 Comments


Evening Standard: House prices are 30% overvalued and need correction says IMF

British house prices are up to 30 per cent over-valued and our homes face a dramatic drop in value, the top global financial watchdog warned today. International Monetary Fund (IMF) experts say price increases between 1997 and 2007 cannot be fully explained by economic factors such as population growth and income and that market "correction" is highly likely. City economist Jonathan Loynes, of forecasters Capital Economics, said the worrying figures actually offered some hope for homeowners. He predicted the base rate would be cut to four per cent by the end of this year and would fall to as little as 3.5 per cent.

Posted by little professor @ 10:26 PM 18 Comments

The IMF speaks...

The Melbourne Age: Property correction risk in Australia 'high'

The fund ranks Australian residential property fourth among developed nations, behind Ireland, the Netherlands and Britain in terms of vulnerability to a drop in value. Full report is available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/pdf/c3.pdf

Posted by rednose @ 10:25 PM 0 Comments

The FT is fully bought into a 20 to 30% HPC now

John Authers The Short View: Financial Times

This article from the front page FT columnist John Authers says 20 to 30% falls in UK house prices are guaranteed as the UK follows the US.
He also says that GBP is really going to plummet with the UK HPC.
HPC is sooo mainstream, I am starting to visit this website less.
The world has now woken up to the truth.

Posted by voiceofreason @ 09:48 PM 15 Comments

What next, a house whose door stops letting you in if you miss a payment?

Prison Planet: High-tech gear disables car if borrower misses payment

This was actually the plot of "Ubik" by Philip K. Dick. I thought this was an April Fool, but apparently not. http://www.sekurus.com/

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:19 PM 4 Comments


CNN Money: The Great Inflation Cover-Up

Finally agreement that inflation figures published by the government are false. Core inflation excludes everything that is core! - e.g. it excludes housing inflation, energy inflation, food inflation. Precisey what is core if these things are not! It turns out core is the things we rarely buy, e.g. a fridge you buy only once every ten years, a tv you buy only once every 5 years, etc. Interesting these are lower inflation items. Isn't it interesting how they get the lower inflation figures. Deceptively lower inflation, lower interest rates, fast-and-loose monetary policy, asset-price bubbles, high house price inflation.

Posted by bill @ 06:29 PM 2 Comments

Mortgage deals drying up by the hour

Moneymarketing: 23,000 mortgage products cut in last 6 months

23,000 mortgage products have disappeared from the intermediary market in the last six months, according to Trigold. It says that in August 2007 there were 45,590 products on the Trigold sourcing system and in February 2008 this had fallen to 21,988 equating to a drop of 52 per cent in just 6 months.

Posted by jack c @ 06:10 PM 11 Comments

"home owners coming off fixed rate mortgages and having to spend more on new deals could act as the spark that ignited a recession"

Citywire: A-rated Hall warns chance of UK recession nearing 50%

The UK is currently poised on a knife edge teetering close to recession, Rensburgs Citywire A-rated Mark Hall has warned. The manager of the Rensburg UK Select Growth trust said the UK economy, which has so far weathered the storm in markets to a degree, could slide into a recession if consumer spending dried up. He said: The UK economy is still on a knife edge and its approaching a 50% chance of recession, although Im not sure which way it will go.

Posted by jack c @ 05:21 PM 0 Comments

Banking supervision for beginners

Bank of England: UK Mortgage Margins

Please read the last couple of pages of the publication (from 1997!) - there is a checklist of warning signs to look out for, NR had been exhibiting every single symptom for years (which I fleshed out a bit on my 'blog). "Asleep on the job" does not come close. "Wilfully turning a blind eye" is nearer the mark.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:28 PM 0 Comments

Potential bargains to be had in Croatia

Ananova: Not so shipshape

Brits flooding to Croatia to buy up new homes might want to consider the latest launching on the housing market...

Posted by stever @ 04:03 PM 0 Comments

$160 Oil? Shoot!

Moneyweek: $160 Oil Next Week?

Interesting article for oil and precious metal bulls. All we need now is an energy crisis!

Posted by frizzers @ 03:00 PM 0 Comments

Muppets Still Out There

BBC News: Crunch Hits First Time Buyers

I don't believe it, there are still people out there trying to get 100% mortgages at the top of the market!

Posted by fallin-offa-kliff @ 02:21 PM 0 Comments

more jobless in the states


Weekly jobless claims jump by 38,000 to 407,000. More soon........... I thought things were getting better..lol...............

Posted by mark @ 01:44 PM 2 Comments

More jobs go

bbc: BAE confirms it will cut 600 jobs

Uncertain future "Only a few days ago, the Red Arrows had the Hawks on display to celebrate the RAF's 90th anniversary," said Unite national officer Bernie Hamilton. "Sadly, the future for the skilled workers that built these state-of-the-art jets is now uncertain.

Posted by mark @ 01:25 PM 5 Comments

House prices on suggested issues list

BBC: Question Time: Your Say

What would you like to ask the next Question Time panel ?

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:25 PM 11 Comments

The 80's Revisited

Estate Agency News: Why a look back through history assures me I do not expect the market to crash!

This VI reminices about the 80's crash, ending by saying today it's all different. Yet, if you didn't read the first part you would think he was talking about now!

Posted by chopper1400 @ 01:10 PM 0 Comments

Hope for Bulgarian Investors

Hiday.net: The Russians are Coming

The Russians are starting to take over from the UK and Irish as the main buyers of Bulgarian properties. This is good news for those that have already bought in Bulgaria and who are now hoping to sell their investment in the near future.

Posted by john84 @ 12:38 PM 2 Comments

The thin cows eat the fat cows

The Times: Bank of England warns mortgage famine to worsen

"They also plan to increase the margin over base rate they charge mortgage borrowers, offsetting the benefit of any potential cut in base rate. It also emerged today that UK banks demanded more than twice the cash offered by the Bank of England in its weekly auction that is aimed at pumping liquidity into the British financial system" As I've said elsewhere: let them suffer their previous recklessness. Government: time to legislate: No more than 75% LTV to stop this happening again.

Posted by growler @ 11:43 AM 15 Comments

The calm insight of John Authers

FT: The Short View: UK housing bubble

John Authers's view on the house bubble. Always worth listening to. Watch the video too (link on same page).

Posted by letthemfall @ 11:43 AM 0 Comments

Slightly off-topic Webmaster but this website should be discussed

EU Truth: The abolition of Britain by The Reform Treaty Passed with a 138 majority

I apologise for the off-topic posting but this website needs to be discussed by the bloggers.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:40 AM 38 Comments

Backlog ? More like bad risk

City A.M.: Crunch comes home to roost

Just a backlog. Yeah right.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:31 AM 0 Comments

The real price of bank bail-outs

MoneyWeek: The unrequited love of the taxpayer

Banks are happy to enjoy free markets when theyre winning but when theyre losing, they expect taxpayers to bail them out. New, tighter regulation is now being called for but its been tried before...

Posted by damien @ 11:27 AM 0 Comments

Co-op is the next domino to fall

Telegraph: Co-op Bank joins rush to pull best mortgages

Co-op pulls their two year fix as it appeared in the best buy table and became too popular

Posted by jonb @ 10:59 AM 33 Comments

The sheeple might not have woken up yet, but give it a couple of months...

Sky News: Bank Says Credit Crunch To Bite Harder

The Bank of England has admitted that the credit squeeze is going to get worse before it gets better. Its quarterly credit survey has shown that lenders across the country expect to slash the amount of money they allow people to borrow even more sharply in the coming months. Increasing numbers of individuals and companies are defaulting on loans, and there will be more repossessions, it has forecast.

Posted by francis @ 10:42 AM 0 Comments

A Sub-prime Crisis Here?

Brian Bloom talks sense

Market Oracle: Stocks Bear Market Notes

Brian Bloom talks about debt, the stock markets, oil, alternative energies that won't work, alternative energies that will work, politics, responsibility, gold, and wait for it...............the Mayan Calendar and consciousness

Before you start filling the bath and running for the toaster, how about reading the article and giving some constructive comments please.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:42 AM 7 Comments

Now whistling is a threat to the housing market (also on BBC & Sky News - LOL)

Thisislondon: Wimpey bans its builders from wolf-whistling after bosses claim it puts off 'sophisticated' female house-hunters

A leading building firm has banned its builders from wolf-whistling at women, claiming the tradition was putting off "savvy and sophisticated" female house-hunters. The ban was announced just days ahead of the launch of the city's Meridian housing development, at the Aztec Hotel on Saturday.

Posted by jack c @ 09:11 AM 7 Comments

More corruption exposed

The Telegraph: Bertie Ahern resigns as Ireland's Prime Minister

Bertie Ahern has announced his resignation as Ireland's Prime Minister following sleaze allegations centring on a series of allegedly secret payments that he received from businessmen in the 1990s.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:02 AM 12 Comments

long-term average = 27pc drop

The Telegraph: The report suggests that for affordability to return to its long-term average, house prices would need to fall 27pc.

"The report suggests that for affordability to return to its long-term average, house prices would need to fall 27pc."

Markets always overshoot in both directions. That must equal a 40pc drop then

Add in a depression and we have 60-70pc drop.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:54 AM 35 Comments

S&P report suggests that for affordability to return to its long-term average, house prices would need to fall 27pc

Telegraph: UK Housing market 'faces painful future'

The UK housing market is facing a "painful and severe" fall in value as a lack of bank financing, record low affordability and the prospect of unemployment combine to hit the market. A report by rating agency Standard & Poor's is warning of pricing corrections across Europe, but particularly in markets such as the UK and Spain which have seen sustained prices rises over recent years.

Posted by jack c @ 08:36 AM 21 Comments

Vince Cable "It is becoming increasingly clear that the downturn in the housing market is much more than just a blip"

Daily Mail: Three million families 'will be plunged into negative equity within a year'

Three million families could be plunged into negative equity within a year. One in four households would find the size of their mortgage dwarfing the value of their home by next April, MPs said yesterday. LibDem spokesman Vince Cable said the figure, based on expert City analysis, was not alarmist but "highly plausible". The warning came on a dramatic day which saw cheap mortgage offers scrapped in record numbers.

Posted by jack c @ 08:27 AM 10 Comments

It appears that the VI's have bought Hamish as well as Stephen King of the "Independent"

Independent: Hamish McRae: Housing market shivers but it should not be as bad as the early 1990s

while the housing market may not be as bad this time, the availability of mortgages may be worse. (Oh Dear Hamish, did you take out a big mortgage? I think this is a case for Scooby Doo) ---- It is hard to see anything more serious than the early 1990s and actually hard to see anything as serious as that for three obvious reasons. 1) One is that we seem unlikely to face the same surge in unemployment as we did then (But unemployment is soaring!) Next, we do have control of our monetary and exchange rate policy we don't have to shadow the euro (But Brown is destroying Sterling, possibly leading us into the Euro, with bodged CPI and artificially low rates), thanks to lower interest rates the cost of servicing debt is still well below the 1990 peak (I just choked on my Breakfast!!).

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:05 AM 15 Comments

MEWing over thanks to credit crunch, consumers turn to overdrafts and personal loans

The Times: Householders in a rush to the bank as big price rises empty their wallets

Goodbye mortgage equity withdrawal, hello credit card and overdraft! Cash-strapped consumers are raiding their savings accounts, taking out personal loans and overdrafts as the credit crunch puts household disposable incomes under massive pressure. Unsecured personal borrowing soared by 2.4 billion in February, the biggest monthly rise for more than five years, according to Bank of England figures released yesterday. Higher living expenses have raised fears that consumers will be forced to borrow even more to meet their outgoings.

Posted by koala bear @ 07:56 AM 1 Comments

Off track again

Hometrack: House Price Survey March

"House prices fell for the sixth month in a row over March with average prices down 0.2% over the month and the annual rate of growth slipping to +0.4% - the lowest level for 2 years." "The latest survey shows that prices were down across 28.8% of postcodes, the majority of which were in London and the South East where values have been slowing off a high base" Just like 1990s crash. The more pumped up a region, the quicker the hot air dissapates. Contrary to what EAs tell you around here (South Bucks), I know people that have lowered the price of their house and still have NO viewings. It's a nice house too - 3 bed det in cul de sac, no social housing nearby, views. They told us - remember they are vendors - to wait at least a year.

Posted by growler @ 07:30 AM 2 Comments

Buy bad subprime loans now as they are cheap says BOE!

Telegrtaph: Bank of England urges banks to buy 'frozen' securities

The Bank of England's financial markets chief has issued a clarion call for banks and investors to buy up the troubled asset-backed securities at the heart of the financial crisis. It is a "serious puzzle" that no one is buying this "supposedly undervalued" paper, Paul Tucker said, adding that unless these frozen markets restarted soon, the credit crisis would reach a new intensity.... Er Paul since when has using common sense been a "serious puzzle"? This stuff is toxic so nobody (except the dumb government) will touch it!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:35 AM 3 Comments

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

So there you have it. If we close down all the joke and fancy dress shops, the housing market should recover.


Sir Ronnie Flanagan said he had examined a series of cases in which ghosts had scared people away from old funfairs so their owners were forced to sell out to unscrupulous property speculators.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:57 PM 6 Comments

We have closed one chapter ... but there are more chapters to come

TheGuardian: Credit crisis over? Don't believe the hype

As European shares and credit derivative spreads rally hard, taking billion-dollar writeoffs in their stride, hopes are rising that the credit crunch is over, but the cash corporate bond market suggests it is not.In fact the crisis may simply be moving to a new phase, analysts say, where companies so far untouched by the problems faced by the financial system find it harder to get funding."From a longer-term perspective, we have closed one chapter in what is the great credit crunch of 2007 and 2008, but there are more chapters to come,"

Posted by wanderinman @ 11:31 PM 0 Comments

Iou 1.4 Trillion

the new york times: Debt-Gorged British Start to Worry That the Party Is Ending

As the United States economy weakens, many Americans are being overwhelmed by personal debt, but Britons are even more profligate. For most of the last decade, consumers here went on a debt-financed spending spree that made them the most indebted rich nation in the world, racking up a record 1.4 trillion in debt ($2.8 trillion) more than the countrys gross domestic product.

Posted by sold out @ 11:21 PM 8 Comments

THE price of a bushel of wheat rose yet again in the markets of Flanders yesterday presaging a monstrous tribulation and a grave rise in the price of mead, the Lord High Guardian of the King's Purse has warned.


Sir Mervyne said a rise in the price of wheat would force up the rates of the money changers and plunge those squires who had foolishly bought their castles at inflated prices into penury and destitution. He added: And those knaves who have speculatively bought so many castles purely to rent out to others, against the teachings of the Holy Book, verily I say, in Gods name they will be cast down into the fires of hell to burn for ever and ever. Amen.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:54 PM 7 Comments

Lehmans withdraws from the UK mortgage market

Bloomberg: Lehman Stops Writing Mortgages in the U.K., S&P Says (Update3)

More money withdrawn from the mortgage market. Another day another nail. Also comments on Lehmans being short of cash and has raised new stock. Mentions of non-conforming loans in the UK. Really where?!?!

Posted by waiting for the crash @ 10:48 PM 7 Comments

Fortunately, the UK economy is "sustainable"

Bloomberg: Manhattan Condo Sales Decline Most in 18 Years

"Manhattan apartment sales plunged the most in 18 years in the first quarter as buyers faced the prospect of a US recession and job cuts at Wall Street securities firms".

Posted by alan @ 10:45 PM 3 Comments

Salford flat valued at 140k not selling at 70k

BBC Radio 4: You & Yours

Propert club Inside Track coming under more flack from BTLer who bought at flat in Salford for 129k, valued at 140 but similar flat not selling at auction for 70k. He didn't bother to look at the local area, picked up the keys when it was finished but couldn't get in because the security guard wouldn't let him in due to the level of vandalism in the area. He's had 11 months voids in 30 months - any sympathy - I doubt it!

Posted by sittingitout @ 09:41 PM 0 Comments

Icesave safe?

Times: Why Iceland melts under weight of dancing bears

Iceland has declared war on bears, not the fur-clad ones but financial spivs which Geir Haarde, the Icelandic prime minister, believes are out to wreck the country's banking system.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 09:10 PM 5 Comments

Hmm. Now Let me see . What could be happening here?

FT.com: Mortgage approvals stay near decade lows

Blindingly obvious isn't it. No doubt no one will see it coming...

Posted by whiteknight @ 08:32 PM 8 Comments

Some polarised views from show attendees

The Times On Line: Video from Invest in Property Show

Video from the Invest in property show. Interviews with a variety of bull and bears. Is it a good time to invest in property? - "Yes, why should I wait for it to up another 50 Grand" Is it a good time to invest in property? - " Definitely no, the UK is going to tank like the US" ete etc

Posted by mikelivingstone @ 07:53 PM 0 Comments

Its only a matter of time before the UK see big price reductions.

FT.com: Britain faces up to the prospect of house prices American-style

With Americans defaulting on their mortgages at a rate not seen since the 1930s Depression and house prices in main US metropolitan markets 12.5 per cent off their mid-2006 peak, uncertainties are rising in other countries where housing values have enjoyed a big recent run-up. Spain, for one, is showing a sharp contraction in the number of home sales, often the precursor to a price crash. But it is Britain where the similarities are arguably greatest.

Posted by john kane @ 07:29 PM 0 Comments

Check out the graph predicting 2009 prices.

Market Oracle: UK Housing Mortgage Market Crunch

The UK housing market continues to trend lower towards the Market Oracle forecast of negative house price inflation on release of Aprils house price data in May. The Housing market was hit today by further news of withdrawal of more mortgage products that has seen the mortgage products market now shrink by 2/3rds from a year earlier. First Direct announced that it would no longer be offering mortgage products to new customers. This follows hot on the heals of many banks and building societies making borrowing far more difficult, the aim being to reduce their expsosure to the UK mortgage market.

Posted by john kane @ 07:25 PM 0 Comments

Nothing to do with HPC - but having been called holocaust denialists - thought Max might like to join the forum

Timesonline: Max Mosley denies Nazi claims in orgy scandal

The first paragraph is priceless. Made Oi laaarf. Nothing to do with HPC, but thought we could all do with a giggle.

Posted by bystander @ 06:53 PM 8 Comments

Positive slant on a negative by VI - "repossession sectors booming".

Mortgagestrategy: West Midlands market still busy

Activity in the West Midlands housing market has quickened rather than slowed down, according to a Birmingham-based mortgage broker. The firm said that despite downbeat reports on the buy-to-let sector, there was evidence investors were taking advantage of properties coming back on to the market from those who could no longer cover their mortgage.

Posted by jack c @ 06:52 PM 6 Comments

House of Commons move to help keep property market afloat

Mortgagestrategy: Over 1 million vulnerable borrowers to recieve advice from MAT

1.4 million borrowers likely to face higher mortgage costs in 2008 as a result of payment shock will receive advice literature from the Money Advice Trust and the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Supported by members of all sides of the House of Commons, MAT has been working with the CML to publish advice for those 1.4 million borrowers identified by the Financial Services Authority.

Posted by jack c @ 06:41 PM 16 Comments

Look into my eyes, not around my eyes; 'Honest they definitely AAA, trust me.', now open your eyes

Bloomberg: Moody's Is Worst Subprime-Bond Rater, Fitch Is Best

I wonder who was responsible for rating the majority of toxic waste as AAA?????????? .....Moodys should be looking at criminal charges and complicity to defraud on a world wide scale. IMHO

Posted by bystander @ 05:23 PM 1 Comments

A fourth month in a row of declining activity in the housebuilding sector

The Times: Construction slows for first time since 2001

With the commercial property sector in dire straits and the housing market cooling markedly, there is a very real danger that the construction sector could be in for an extended hard time. This adds to the downward pressures facing the UK economy, Howard Archer, of Global Insight said.

Posted by growler @ 05:13 PM 5 Comments

Worried sheeple

BBC Five Live: Mortgage phone in

Victoria Derbyshire phone in on mortgages. 42 mins in. Lots of worried callers coming to realise the one way bet has vapourised.

Posted by doomwatch @ 05:08 PM 8 Comments

Does anyone really find this surprising?

Telegraph Online: UK consumer borrowing hits five-year high

Consumer credit rose to 2.35bn in February, the highest level since October 2002, according to figures released today from the Bank of England. The increase was driven by a 2 billion jump in lending through loans and overdrafts, the biggest increase since the Bank's figures began in April 1993, while outstanding debt on credit cards increased by 350 million. At the same time, the Bank's figures showed that the number of mortgages approved for people buying a home fell by nearly 40 per cent during the past year.

Posted by inthedelhi @ 04:26 PM 12 Comments

Demand for housing falling away

property week: Slowing UK construction industry will cause housing headache says RICS

A slowing housing market that is hitting the UK construction industry will make it even harder for the Government to reach its housing targets, says the RICS.

Posted by georgina peach @ 04:22 PM 0 Comments

House prices reductions in our area

Yahoo: Are houseprices slumping in your area?: Yahoo: Are houseprices slumping in your area?

Finally.....we have seen the first 3 bedroom 3 recption room house adverstised on Rightmove for 190k. Those who know the area CR7 will know that all houses in this area are being marketed at arouund 250k. Hopefully, this is a bit of a breakthrough. Let there be more.....

Posted by steve mann @ 04:14 PM 0 Comments

intersting article or thread...

Yahoo: Are houseprices slumping in your area?

seems to be some interesting posts about houses..

Posted by mark @ 03:55 PM 1 Comments

Mortgage Origination Commission to increase federal oversight over the licensing and conduct of mortgage brokers

World Socialist Web Site: US Treasury plan shields Wall Street speculators

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Monday presented a broad plan to revamp the American financial regulatory system. The proposal, while giving the Federal Reserve Board expanded trouble-shooting powers over financial markets and institutions, would actually weaken federal oversight of Wall Street investment banks and leave virtually untouched the vast, unregulated secondary, or "derivatives," markets.

Posted by malct @ 03:49 PM 1 Comments

UK-US co-operation in tackling the financial crisis

Financial Times (UK): Bush and Brown in push to deal with crisis

George W. Bush, US president, and Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, have agreed to step up co-operation over the crisis in financial markets. They are setting up a joint working group which will develop plans to monitor and regulate the banking system. Mr Brown and Mr Bush will discuss greater UK-US co-operation in tackling the financial crisis when they meet at a Nato summit in Bucharest this week and a Washington summit next month. According to UK Treasury officials, the new body will examine the role of the credit ratings agencies in evaluating risk, amid concerns that they did not fully appreciate the exposure of mortgage-based products to a fall in the housing market.

Posted by malct @ 03:25 PM 11 Comments

The banking industry is not the only one shedding jobs recently

Comcast News Associated Press: 200,000 US Banking Jobs at Risk

NEW YORK - The U.S. financial industry has been shedding jobs at a record clip, and some analysts predict the pace will only accelerate over the next year-and-a-half as banks cut costs in the face of the housing market slump and the weak economy. The banking industry is not the only one shedding jobs recently. Manufacturing and construction companies have been laying off workers for a couple years now amid the flagging housing market and weak automotive industry.

Posted by malct @ 03:19 PM 1 Comments

without the inconvenience of government supervision

Counterpunch: If It's Not Dead on Arrival, Someone Should Shoot It Quick

It is being billed as a "massive shakeup of US financial market regulation", but don't be deceived. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's proposals for broad market reform are neither "timely" nor "thoughtful" (Reuters) If Paulson's plan is approved in its present form, Congress will have even less control over the financial system than it does now and the same group of self-serving banking mandarins who created the biggest equity bubble in history will be able to administer the markets however they choose without the inconvenience of government supervision. That's exactly what Wall Street, the Treasury Secretary and the folk at the Fed want; unlimited power with no accountability.

Posted by malct @ 03:03 PM 1 Comments

His analysis is dour and grim, but certainly not dull.

usa today money via 321 Gold: 'Trillion Dollar Meltdown' paints scary economic picture

Morris, a lawyer and former banker who has written 10 books, argues that the subprime mortgage crisis is only a taste of the mayhem that will play out across an array of financial assets. He lays out the likely course of write-downs and defaults on a whole gamut of assets residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, high-yield bonds, leveraged loans, credit cards and the complex bond structures that sit atop them. It comes to about $1 trillion, according to Morris. "The sad truth, however, is that subprime (losses he estimates as high as $500 billion) is just the first big boulder in an avalanche of asset write-downs that will rattle on through much of 2008," he predicts.

Posted by malct @ 02:56 PM 6 Comments

Golds bull market

MoneyWeek: Golds bull market

Timing is everything, but if you want to be a strong hand investor, dont be too hasty to get out when it comes to commodities. Despite its recent fall, there is still a bull market for gold.

Posted by damien @ 02:22 PM 5 Comments

When they're gone, they're gone

The Times: Mortgage brokers braced for Halifax to pull deals

"If they feel that service is slipping, they will increase rates or withdraw from the market temporarily". Last one out, turn the light off.

Posted by growler @ 01:54 PM 5 Comments

If the gold is not at Fort Knox and it is not in the Bank of England, where the hell is it?

truthseeker: The Flagging Pound

The pound is now falling against the dollar as well. Last year the pound peaked against the dollar at around 2.04. According to xe.com the rate is now about 1.97. As the dollar is clearly not gaining in value, this must mean that it is the pound that is falling and falling significantly faster than the dollar. All this raises a very simple question in my mind What the hell is going on?

Posted by malct @ 01:48 PM 11 Comments

700,000 Chinese suppliers no longer use dollars to settle non-US transactions

FT com via truthseeker: Chinese exporters shun flagging dollar

Rising numbers of Chinese exporters are shunning the US dollar or devising ways to offset the impact of the falling currency as they confront rising labour and raw material costs at home.

Posted by malct @ 01:46 PM 2 Comments

BBC iPlayer - Newsnight, not to be missed

BBC Newsnight: Newsnight 1st April

In case you missed it. Two main topics covered, the Credit Crunch - sound of belts tightening within the banking system, and also China - rising food prices, inflation, and stockmarket day traders. When Rockefeller was famously given stock tips by the bootshine boy he decided it is was a good time to quit.....the 3 chinese women in this programme gave me a similar feeling of deja vu.

Posted by rental john @ 01:08 PM 0 Comments

China is in trouble

BBC Newsnight: China's leap into modernity

Newsnight: 2 videos on China. Next one is tonight on workers rights.

China is in trouble economically, politically, socially, and environmentally.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:04 PM 3 Comments

Yet more grist to the mill...

This was a good documentary last night

BBC: We lose in Greed Game

"At the heart of the television film for which we interviewed some of the most influential players in global finance, including George Soros, Stephen Schwarzman, Michael Hintze, Jim Chanos, Sir Ronald Cohen, Mervyn Davies, John Moulton, Terry Smith and Paul Myners is an examination of how remuneration practices at private equity, hedge funds and banking encouraged excessive risk-taking" The documentary shows the US housing horrors and what started that. Replace 'sub-prime' with 'BTL' and you have a good picture of the situation here in UK. Albeit, morally, I am on the side of the American homeowners conned in the process. May the UK BTLers rotten in h@ll. Sorry I was not able to find the webcast link

Posted by confused76 @ 11:59 AM 14 Comments

Not an April fool this time!

World stocks rise as fears recede: BBC

European and Asian stocks rose on Wednesday as investors hoped that the worst of the credit crisis may be over

Posted by holding out @ 11:47 AM 10 Comments

Even if it is sound. I wouldn't want my money there

BBC: Iceland's economy 'under attack'

Iceland is considering intervention in its currency and stock markets to fight hedge funds that it says are attacking its financial system.

Posted by holding out @ 11:43 AM 1 Comments

Bad news from the banks, so why are shares soaring?

MoneyWeek: Bad news from the banks, so why are shares soaring?

Why did share prices take off yesterday after investment banks raised even more capital to prop up their injured balance sheets? Well, its the usual triumph of hope over experience, says John Stepek.

Posted by damien @ 11:32 AM 4 Comments

Metal pipes worth more than some US homes

Telegraph: Metal pipes worth more than some US homes

Copper is getting very expensive these days, you know. Oh, I should have posted that into commodities discussion...

Posted by alex @ 11:05 AM 0 Comments

Picking up the bill for the greedy rich

BBC: Super Rich: The Greed Game

"As the credit crunch bites and a global economic crisis threatens, Robert Peston reveals how the super-rich have made their fortunes, and the rest of us are picking up the bill."

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:03 AM 8 Comments

Was yesterday's April 1st posting actually right?

BBC News: World stocks rise as fears recede

"Investors believe the credit crisis in the US is over," And I thought yesterdays article was an April Fools joke!

Posted by orcusmaximus @ 10:53 AM 0 Comments

Lehman Brothers?

Mortgage Solutions: SPML and Preferred to close today

Mortgage Solutions understands Lehman Brothers' two brands in the UK, Southern Pacific Mortgage Ltd and Preferred Mortgages are to cease trading from 5pm today.

Posted by renting2 @ 10:42 AM 3 Comments

All grist to the mill...

BBC: Mortgage approvals at 13 year low

Typical. You wait five years for articles like this and now we're getting a dozen-a-day.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:06 AM 20 Comments

It must by now be beyond all doubt that Britain's biggest April Fool is Brown. The immigration figures are so damning that only a prime minister working directly for some secret, demonic, cabal would continue tp deny such an awful reality. Who are the rea


In an incredible show of arrogance, the Prime Minister and his colleagues brushed aside a devastating report from peers which confirmed that migrants bring no economic benefit.

Posted by chris @ 07:26 AM 0 Comments

Tough times continue....

Daily Mail: Homebuyers plunge 40 per cent as lenders get tougher

''.....The numbers braving the economic climate to buy a home have fallen 40 per cent, figures show. In December, 72,880 took the plunge, compared to 122,401 in the same month in 2006, according to the Land Registry. Experts said the numbers buying a home are likely to have fallen even further over the last three months.....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:19 AM 22 Comments

property clubs and btl

BBC Radio 4: you and yours

Today's programme WILL be about property clubs and btl. 12.04 BST http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/youandyours/ Will they talk only to CML and EAs or to people without a VI. Email or text in your experiences. listenagain AFTER the show http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_aod.shtml?radio4/youandyours_wed

Posted by mken @ 03:43 AM 1 Comments

First Direct (HSBC) Pulls ALL mortgages

BBC News: First Direct withdraws mortgages

First Direct has temporarily stopped offering any of its mortgages to people who are not already its customers. The bank, which is part of HSBC, said the withdrawal was to allow it to cope with the unprecedented demand for its range of mortgages. Is HSBC in trouble?

Posted by ccamper @ 01:34 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Government massaging CPI

Bloomberg: Brown Says U.K. Taking Steps to Limit Credit Crunch

"The government, he said, will keep a lid on inflation, enabling the Bank of England to cut interest rates." ...Thought the BoE was supposed to be independent. By the time GB is ousted from his unelected position the next encumbent will have real inflation of 10% plus and will need to rapidly raise interest rates, with the cooperation of the BoE ofcourse, by then sterling will be worth the same as the dollar and the British people will be destitute. The Crock was left dangling for months, but now Gb can see the error of his ways, he will ignore any potential 'moral hazard' and follow GW and Ben down the same treacherous path. He really has no original thoughts.

Posted by bystander @ 10:50 PM 53 Comments

Cracking headline, boring article

London Evening Standard: House prices: Slump starts

Not much to add, really. I just love the headline. It's a bit like when Father Dougall looked in his calendar and said to Father Ted 'Did you know that the ice age ended on the 19th of June?'

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 09:43 PM 9 Comments

Looks like Knight Frank's prediction for London house price rises made in December may be optimistic (surprising or what)

thisismoney: Fears of job cuts put a block on prime house prices

Knight Frank blamed the slowdown on higher mortgage costs, fears of redundancies in the City, and faltering confidence in the banking sector following meltdown at Northern Rock and Bear Stearns and rumours of a funding crisis at HBOS.

Posted by flamepoint23 @ 09:37 PM 1 Comments

About as damning as it gets

Channel 4 News: Good-Buy-To-Let

'But repossessions are rising and at auction, new build flats are selling for 26 per cent less than the original sale price.' The news article would be an eye-opener for the uninitiated.

Posted by renting2 @ 09:19 PM 6 Comments

Another false dawn for the banks?

Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Rise in S&P 500's Best 2nd Quarter Start Since 1938

The U.S. stock market posted its best start to a second quarter in 70 years after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and UBS AG said they are raising $19 billion to replenish capital, spurring speculation that banks can weather further credit losses. ``The market's getting a little more comfortable that the crisis is over,'' said Henry Herrmann, president and chief executive officer of Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. in Overland Park, Kansas, which manages $65 billion. ``It's a rally associated with the presumed elimination of survival risk.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:50 PM 2 Comments

Panic stations in the search for a new mortgage

Guardian: First Direct puts mortgages on hold

First Direct today became the latest lender to withdraw from the mortgage market, as it pulled out of offering mortgages to anyone other than existing customers. The bank, which is owned by HSBC, said it was taking the "drastic" step after being overwhelmed with applications following recent moves by rival lenders, and added that it would resume offering home loans to non-customers when it had cleared the backlog.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:19 PM 12 Comments

Greedy flipper gets her comeuppance

The Argus: Foreign homes investment leaves woman facing bankruptcy

Inside Track persuaded Tamsin Barks to take out mortgages worth more than 1.1 million to buy seven homes in Britain, Florida and Spain. The technique, called "flipping", seemed simple and promised to make her a fortune. However five years on, Mrs Barks faces the prospect of a 300,000 loss plus ongoing maintenance costs. A flat that she bought in Manchester for 172k has been recorded at the Land Registry at 203k, misleading potential investors in the development.. At the moment Mrs Barks makes about 3,500 a month in rent. That leaves her with a shortfall of at least 1,500/month. "I'm scared I'll go bankrupt. I thought it was too good to be true, and I wish I had stuck to my instincts. Property investment seemed sensible, it was bricks and mortar."

Posted by little professor @ 06:36 PM 10 Comments

It's not just UBS

Yahoo: Deutsche Bank Expects $4B Subprime Hit

Deutsche Bank AG said Tuesday that it expects first-quarter write-downs of $4 billion due to "significantly more challenging" market conditions triggered by the U.S. subprime collapse.

Posted by alan @ 06:29 PM 0 Comments

Very funny cartoons

propertyinvestmentproject: House Price Crash (HPC) Website Mentality

House Price Crash (HPC) (www.housepricecrash.co.uk) is a pretty popular property website, which displays interesting statistical data. The forum is constantly active with hundreds of users. Im even a member of the forum community myself, although I tend to keep under the radars, because my kind is frowned upon. my kind, as in someone that isnt all about the property crash- were a minority in there. In case you havent guessed, the site consists of a rather large community that insist a property crash is coming; and they cant bloody wait. Anyone that is opposed to the crash tends to get the hairdryer treatment by a barrage ofwell, pretty immature, patronizing individuals. I have no qualms with conflicting opinions, but Im a firm believer in tact and mutual respect.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 05:04 PM 90 Comments

Is the Icelandic banking system on the brink of meltdown?

Mortgagestrategy: Heritable put on negative watch by Fitch

Heritable Bank and its Icelandic parent group Landsbanki have both been placed on ratings watch negative by Fitch Ratings. Landsbanki was one of three Icelandic banks placed on watch, and it applies to the groups issuer default ratings and debt ratings. A release says: While Fitch believes that the three banks' liquidity is currently sufficient, diminishing confidence in the sector has increased the risk of unanticipated calls on liquidity while severely restricting funding options.

Posted by jack c @ 04:44 PM 6 Comments

Darling's Getting Desperate!

Daily Mail: A Fool and His Money

Captain Darling feels the heat as the economy cools down.

Posted by fallin-offa-kliff @ 03:32 PM 8 Comments

The Fox Is In The Henhouse

truthseeker: Darryl Robert Schoon Silver &Gold

After the recent collapse of Bear Stearns, the Fed announced that US funds will now be made available to international investment banks. Previous to this announcement, any loaning of US funds to investment banks was prohibited. On March 28th, the first day the funds were available, the Fed loaned the banks $75 billion dollars. These investment banks, called primary-dealers, are the inner circle of the Feds funding mechanism. That these primary-dealers are in need of US support is an indication of the rapidly disintegrating state of their balance sheets - and the lengths the Fed will go to protect their fellow bankers in the private sector with public money.

Posted by malct @ 02:57 PM 2 Comments

The previous peak was in the 1980s at 20%, this is not good...

Daily Mail: Mortgages cost up to third of income

Homeowners must devote a third of income to mortgage payments over the 25 year lifetime of a typical loan - more than the previous peak in the 1980s, the study calculated.

Posted by loneranger @ 02:03 PM 6 Comments

26% loss

FT: New-build flats lose 26% on resale

The price of a new-build flat drops on average by more than one-quarter when resold, according to data from auction houses that also confirm the rise in so-called distressed sales. According to data analysing sales over the past three years, the average price drop between official Land Registry figures and subsequent sales at auction was 26 per cent. EDITORS CHOICE Surveyors for new homes feel chill - Apr-01Vultures circle distressed homes - Mar-29Crown Estate plans vehicle for Regent St - Mar-26Fund chief in four-year ban - Mar-19Value of commercial woodland surges - Mar-14UK resilient amid European housing gloom - Mar-04

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:52 PM 10 Comments

More inflationary pressure

BBC: UK companies raising goods prices

The price of UK manufacturers' products rose in March at their fastest since 1999 as input prices soared, a survey says, adding to worries over inflation.

Posted by holding out @ 01:49 PM 5 Comments

Apparently, it's NOT different here after all.

International Herlad-Tribune: On the edge of a housing disaster in Britain

Britain's house price bubble is bursting, popped by a credit famine and by its own remarkable proportions.Looking at the situation now, three conclusions are relatively easy to draw. First, Britain is likely to suffer a substantial housing decline, which easily could snowball and become steep - as in the United States. Second, that housing decline poses huge risks to an overleveraged economy accustomed to easy debt and house price inflation - as in the United States. Third, as prices fall and the economy struggles, a lot of British mortgage debt will go bad, hitting banks and investors in Britain and abroad - as in the United States. All three will magnify and feed one another.

Posted by little professor @ 01:07 PM 6 Comments

More trouble for Gordon

thisismoney: Rock to repossess thousands of homes

"Ministers are left facing the political nightmare of being held ultimately responsible for turfing thousands from their homes." "More than six homes were repossessed by the bank every day last year, compared to fewer than two in 2006." "Numbers are expected to keep on climbing this year as soaring mortgage costs cripple over-indebted customers of the bank which collapsed last year after its money markets dried up and customers reacted by queuing to withdraw their savings."

Posted by steve @ 12:55 PM 2 Comments

So Who's really behind this then?

youtube: House Price Crash Website is Full of Holocaust Deniers

The members on the forum are rampant Capitalist atrocity & Capitalist Holocaust Deniers The Website housepricecrash.co.uk is a fake house price website that functions as 'front' for pushing Conservative & Right Wing viewpoints (usually just cut & pasted from Daily Express articles). Can quiet guy be right - 25. quiet guy said... @shipbuilder This is just a shot in the dark: do you have anything to do with this? : http://www.youtube.com/user/housepricecrashUK Tuesday, April 1, 2008 04:12AM

Posted by malct @ 12:25 PM 92 Comments

Imaginary wealth: why the credit crisis will not go away

MoneyWeek: Imaginary wealth: why the credit crisis will not go away

From the Great Depression, to the UK crash in 1972, to now bear markets all look pretty similar. The US housing crisis has triggered a recession and if history is anything to go by, this is just the beginning. But, there could be one potentially rewarding place to invest...

Posted by damien @ 12:22 PM 0 Comments

Government's strategy of fear is working

The Telegraph: British population are 'highly paranoid'

"One participant who experienced paranoid thoughts told the scientists: "There's something dodgy about one guy. Like he was about to do something - assault someone, plant a bomb, say something not nice to me, be aggressive.""

I am surprised that the article didn't round off with, "But the fear levels could be significantly reduced with the introduction of ID cards."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:10 PM 2 Comments

This is no April fool

Market Oracle: Silver, Gold and JFK the Last American Hero

By the stroke of a pen, President Kennedy's signing of Executive Order 1110 returned the power to issue currency back to the US Treasury thereby ending the fifty year monopoly of private bankers and the Federal Reserve Bank over US currency. Six months later, President John F. Kennedy was shot and killed.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:59 AM 3 Comments

WHO (or NWO) is spreading rumours about the country's banking system

creditflux: Iceland FSA confirms market manipulation investigation

Iceland's Financial Supervisory Authority confirmed it has begun investigating the possibility of market manipulation tactics by parties engaged in spreading rumours about the country's banking system to profit from the situation, reports Reuters. The authority began gathering inform