Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Bond market says a recovery

Forget the Credit Crisis Headlines, Listen to the Bond Market!

The collective message of the bond market is one that is being almost entirely ignored by the financial press. While millions of investors are caught up in the past, cowering under their beds waiting for the next financial bomb to drop, the bond market is screaming to all that will listen, “The worst is over – the economy will improve!”

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:36 AM (864 views)
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9 thoughts on “Bond market says a recovery

  • When an article contains grpahs that not properly annotated, I tend to stop reading, as it usually indicates the work of those who never get out into the fresh air…

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Look at the yield curve graph
    Could this be Martin Armstrong’s low of March 22?

    Whilst there is still a massive amount of carnage to happen this summer, a total financial meltdown has been avoided (for now).
    Look out for a mini bubble going into April 2009 (possibly in china) and then the real collpase to start after then.
    2008 is the warm up for 2010-2011 collapse.

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  • So, look at the graph above – presumably the months are for this year, presumably the vertical axis numbers are yield percentages – but we are not told.

    And what does each line represent? We can only guess…

    – Statistical garbage!

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  • The other Market Oracle article linked to, the one by Nadeem Walay, shows v. different looking LIBOR chart with – “Despite last Thursdays interest rate cut to 5% from 5.25%, … So far the interbank market has failed to respond to these actions.”

    In this article, Clif Droke writes that the LIBOR’s been coming down ever since mid-Jan.

    I do not work in finance, neither have I ever studied economics. I do read some articles HPC links to with interest, though. What accounts for the difference in these articles?

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  • I would not be this optimistic from bond market data.

    Here is the spread between FED Funds target rate and LIBOR Overnight:
    tinypic image taken from Bloomberg showing FED Fund Target vs LIBOR O/N

    and here is the spread between BoE’s base rate and LIBOR Overnight:
    tinypic image taken from Bloomberg showing BoE Base vs LIBOR O/N

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  • does anybody else have any reservations about ?

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:


    Most of Market Oracle’s articles come from Independent authors who run their own websites.
    There is no guarantee that what they say is true or their forecasts are valid.

    However we also know that the mainstream media like the BBC are also capable of deceiving us too when their political owners want them too.
    I found 2 bogus gold articles in late March on MO
    This article is turning out to be a bit dubious

    Let us not be quick to ban articles from Market Oracle.
    Remember this is an information war which will be heating up to boiling point in May and June.

    We should post articles from a wide range of sources and allow the bloggers to decide whether it is information, misinformation or disinformation.
    One way of validating a MO author is to check their website and the history of the their posts on MO.

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  • Thanks for your input S2R1

    The reason I asked, is that the website doesn’t work through our firewall at work (investment bank)

    Maybe part of the information war you mention ?

    At first the website worked fine and was used on a daily basis. A few weeks back it started to time out and nothing was displayed. Now, it displays the market oracle website but just the splash page for an error.

    Also noticed that some websites that would be classed as an independent finance view, are also being blocked or classed as blogs.

    Strange but true.

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