Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Auction house compiled data reveals trends outside other indexes

Residential Auction Property Investment Data

51ck-6-51x: "Since almost all auction sales are paid for by cash they are not included in much of the other compiled data we see. I would point to graphs 7 & 8 especially."

Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 12:32 PM (613 views)
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7 thoughts on “Auction house compiled data reveals trends outside other indexes

  • still peddling the old cr*p about rents will have to rise as people face repossession. I would suggest that rental rises will be limited by the ability of people to pay them.

    I my local market, there seems to be lots more empty spaces than renters willing to pay.

    Mind you local agents seem to think that punters will buy BTl props on the basis of 4% gross yields!

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  • Yields above 7% in London and the SE. What rubbish. The VIs are making it up now

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  • It really amuses me that anything remotely positive on this board is dismissed as “VI spin” when half the posters are waiting for values to fall so that they can make their own “quick buck”. Slight confusion as to where the VI sits on here.

    To quote from the report;

    “Although there have been price corrections,
    there are certainly no signs of recession.
    Whilst distressed sales are expected to
    increase, there remains keen competition
    within different sectors. Not surprisingly,
    speculators, sensing renewed opportunity,
    have returned to the sale rooms. First time
    buyers who have until now found it difficult
    to enter the market, are encouraged by
    the volume of choice available at sensible
    price levels.”

    VI spin? Perhaps, even probably, but if you are relying on the experts on this board to tell you when the bottom is, be prepared to miss the boat. (Again).

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  • new user 2007 says:

    The yields in my area are certainly below what they are saying. The yields for those who bought before 2005 I am sure are close to those levels BUT they are talking about recent purchasers (even if they get the properties at 20% below the mainstream price they are still only talking about 2006 prices i.e. since when in most areas, certainly the South east, have relied on capital appreciation.

    Prices were either stagnating or still rising year on year in the Q4 2007 and Q1 2008, so the yields look ok and so may support the average yield BUT this is before prices start falling in earnest. The buyers obviously assume that they have called the bottom of the market. I suspect they are in for a nasty surprise….

    …read the outlook (the grey column at the end of the report). Speculators [people who still believe housing can only go up] are re-entering! So the rental market should improve as BTL falls BUT they are saying it is being bought by other BTL. This of course assumes that there is a shortage of rental properties.

    At the same time, wages have risen by 3% on average and prices are still only returning to Q1 2007, when FTBs were already priced out in reality but got mortgages they could not afford. If wages have stagnated and prices need to fall to the first half of 2006 at best just to compensate for the falls in income multiples now evident THEN their story does not add up.

    Their conclusion is of course the best case scenario…they say only those who need to sell, will, BUT assume a benign scenario, as if this forced selling will not be large. The part about new builds being the main cause is part true and part red herring…until I went to Birmingham a couple of weeks ago I thought it was in new build crisis BUT then why did so many normal houses have For Sale signs also?

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  • needs saying – people can’t afford the rents

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  • needs saying again – people can’t afford the rents

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  • and again people can’t afford the rents

    get real btl far! droppimgs

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