Thursday, March 20, 2008

Yes we are!

Are we stupid

As we sit in the midst of what seems like an historic episode I find myself struck by one question: how can we have let ourselves get into this again? There’s a Homer Simpson quality to the analysis that led us here…you can picture Homer attempting to grab a donut well out of his reach, banging his head, and then repeating the mistake time after time. That’s where we appear to be in the housing market. One colleague suggested to me today – rather acutely - that housing market cycles last eleven years, while our memories last nine.

Posted by dam1an @ 03:11 PM (1924 views)
Please complete the required fields.



15 thoughts on “Yes we are!

  • Excellent stuff, particularly the first few paragraphs. I like the idea that housing cycles last 11 years but people’s memories only last 9: seems a bit too easy but it is borne out by all the people who genuinely believe house prices only ever increase.

    Great to see hpc.co.uk getting a few mentions at the bottom too.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I get Evan has been gagged up to now by the Blair/Brown Broadcasting Conners.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • unofficial reports…more job losses coming to Citigroup in London

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “how can we have let ourselves get into this again?” Simple. Politicans and bankers are on a gravy train that NEVER EVER stops rolling. The odd sacrifical lamb will fall by the wayside having already received a kings ransom in salary, share dividends and pension pot and with a multi-million pound pay off (and thus not giving two hoots about anything) but the rest just merrily keep on rolling along……………………………………………..

    How telling that Bliar has so easily stepped from one carriage of the gravy train to the other.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “How telling that Bliar has so easily stepped from one carriage of the gravy train to the other” – his mate Mandy takes a bit of beating with the European job !

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Letthemfall says:

    Interesting piece from Evan, and more open it seems to me compared to his rather more “even-handed” pieces on the news. (Stephanie Flanders seems altogether more direct).

    Goes to show that cleverness is a pretty flimsy quality. Throughout all this house price business in recent years, the most difficult thing (leaving out the perversity of arguing prices are fair value) is taking the view that they are overvalued and hearing all the disbelieving braying from housing ladder climbers. Hard to take a contrary view, even when that view seems so obvious.

    The clever are not so clever after all. Present company excepted of course.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • No, I think people do remember what happened last time.

    The issue is that they think they can get out at the top – “as soon as I see the market turning, I’ll sell up”. Problem is that by the time you see it happening, it is too late to get out.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • don’t feel too clever as my savings are still in GBP………………stupid yeah I think so.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • When the Majority are ruled by the whims of a Few,then Yes, we appear Stupid. The use of Democracy to place those Few in complete control is not Clever but Devious.
    Controlled education makes this task easy, but this lack of education does not actually make one stupid, just ignorant.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Well you might not know Evan but I’ll have a stab. Labour get into power and have to offer various presents to the rich and powerful who got them there. One of these is to allow the Bank of England to set interest rates. A huge act of deregulation that takes effective control away from government. Interest rates are reduced and the bandwagon starts to roll. The shakers and the movers start to make their fortunes into even greater fortunes and the crumbs start to fall off the table right down to the middle classes with their buy to lets. Solicitors, estate agents, property developers all dive in and take their fill. Trouble is, as anyone with any common sense knew, it couldn’t last and it was only a matter of time. The Government knew it but didn’t want to admit that ‘Gordon’s Miracle Economy was no different to Gordon’s Miracle Hair Restorer’ and besides, while it kept going, the shakers and the movers wouldn’t help to push Gordon and Co. out of government. The only thing surprising to me (and indeed many on this site over the last few years) is that it’s taken quite so long to go belly up. I suspect it was kept going by the latest wave of investors who piled in over the last two years. Unfortunately they’re the people who will be most affected. What annoys me the most is that it’s the taxpayer who’ll foot the bill. Every bankruptcy, every house reposession means a bill to the taxpayer. So if you’ve realised what a ridiculous situation this whole episode has been and chosen not to take part by retaining financial prudency, you’ll still be paying. Bitter? You bet I’m bitter and disgusted with the whole situation, particularly with the FSA who, if they had any credence, should’ve at least made a stand against what was going on.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • That was Evan’s last broadcast at the Beeb as economics editor. Anyone know where hes going?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • little professor says:

    He’s moving to become one of the Today programme main presenters on Radio 4. A step up the ladder.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Hyrax,

    “I will strive to do some writing, but my new day job (or night time job to be more accurate) will be presenting the Today programme on Radio 4 (for a year at least).”

    Radio 4 is my guess.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Taking up on Bilkos comments the biggest problem is that they don’t include house prices in the inflation figures.
    There again towards the end of the eighties I can remember some conservative making a statement along the lines of
    “We’ve created an economic miracle. Infaltion is down and house prices have doubled in a year”

    What do they put in instead of house prices: Memory Sticks !!!.
    I couldn’t beleive this. We were discussing inflation and a colleague jokingly said they should include memory sticks as they
    were plummeting in price. Three hours later I found they had. I’m surprised they didn’t manage to sneak in bank shares.
    Then inflation would be really low 🙂

    :- Duncan

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I feel even more stupid now as Barclays have just hacked another 30basis points off their internet saver……did I miss something, but that is now 100basis points in four months, haven’t the BoE only cut by 50basis points. Is this another example of capitalism, encouraging the careful. Interbank is up, Boe rate is down, saving rate…..buggered. Whats the ‘effing point in trying to live within your means.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>