Friday, March 28, 2008

Soon, very soon we will be over the edge….

House price growth falls to 12 year low

''...House prices fell for a fifth consecutive month in March, taking the annual rate of growth to its lowest in twelve years, a survey showed on Friday. The Nationwide Building Society said house prices fell 0.6 per cent this month, taking annual price inflation to 1.1 per cent - the weakest since March 1996. The lender, which forecast last November that house prices would remain flat over the course of 2008, is now expecting prices to fall modestly during the year...''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:50 AM (1180 views)
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10 thoughts on “Soon, very soon we will be over the edge….

  • going down……

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  • This and the previous post are very important. First note how we have gone to no possible recession, UK economy is strong (we didnt have one in 2001 when others did) to ever incresing percentage probabilities for a reccession. 35%? I think we need a bookmaker to provide some prices (because that would give a truer picture), does anyone know if there are binary markets for a recession (2 consec quartly contractions in GDP), as i’d love to see those prices.

    Second this post – i am in part staggered by the continuing bullish[*t] rhetoric, against what day-by-day seems to be growing evidence that a situation that obviously HAD to turn at some point has. In the early 90s we had no internet, and i believe that this will only add to the speed of the fall.

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  • Letthemfall says:

    Amusing what the experts say:

    Earley: “..trend was “likely to be highly influential on both transactions and price levels”, since it removed the urgency for people to move”
    King: “..a period of stability would be welcome, as it would bring prices back to a more normal relation with average earnings”

    The 1st quote assumes that our desire to move house is largely a factor of house prices. As for the 2nd, a period of price falls will be far more effective at restoring a normal relation. No doubt we can look forward to a long period of flannel.

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  • When does the graph get updated?

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  • hpwatcher said… nice chart. Look at April 2007’s juicy 0.7% rise, Junes plump 0.9% rise and August and September’s 0.5%. YoY will be negative this time next month ;-). The rate of negatove change appears to be accelerating too. Puts Rightmoves figures into perspective.

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  • Dillardpruitt says:

    It’s amusing that when prices were going up this was apparently driven by fundamentals. On the way down the new driver is now confidence, or the lack of it.

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  • Fools Paradise says:

    If anyones interested in viewing the survey by the research group GfK NOP that showed consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since 1993 in March.
    there a link below

    All five measures have fallen in March.

    http://www.gfknop.com/customresearch-uk/pressinfo/releases/singlearticles/002294/index.en.html

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  • I think the realistic figures are far lower than being stated simply because most of the houses round my area have been up for sale for a minimum of six months and hardly any have reduced their prices. This isn’t just the odd obstinate seller it is the majority. If such numbers aren’t selling at the price advertised over a six month period then clearly they are over priced and the only way they will sell is to be realistic. I suspect these people aren’t in a position which forces them to sell but as soon as this starts to happen I think prices will fall quickly and steadily.

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  • techieman

    “I think we need a bookmaker to provide some prices (because that would give a truer picture),”

    Without a doubt a very plausible statement. Somehow these fellows tend to be the most consistent and accurate predictors and I for one would love to hear what they have to say.

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  • A bookmaker indeed! These people are more overtly self interested and greedy than bankers. A ‘book’ is created to give a spread of odds such that the bookmaker cannot loose out, whatever the mug punters choose to bet upon (‘mug punters’, the term used by bookmakers not me). They will offer teaser rates (seemingly good odds) to tempt mugs to bet upon no hopers, and odds of evens or above for hopefulls or reasonable chancers. If the bookmaker has inside knowledge to enable him to shorten the odds on something that looks like a winner, then thats fine and dandy. If a mug punter acts with others to try to profit from the ‘closed shop’ then that becomes conspiracy and the bookies will take them to court.
    Is this sounding a lot like the stock market or the cynical manipulation used by bankers ? “You may think so, but I could not possibly comment”.

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