Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Round like a spiral in a spiral like a wheel within a wheel…..

Boom / Bust why did Gordon Refuse to Listen?

Just a title from Fred. What amuses me is this. A posting from Greenbay said "yes there are business cycles but i dont believe there is a cycle in property". This is what i find strange about these BTLrs. They Invest in a market that for 400 years (per Fred) has had reliable (excluding the war periods) booms and busts in Land values which have dragged up HP with them (note Fred suggests that HP depreciate - its the land that they are built on which suffers the boom/ bust). Now i have personally not done the work but Fred has, so why oh why would the Bulls insist that they are right and 400 years of history is wrong? Now it may be that "this time" they are right - but its always different "this time", or more likely they have no idea about this research. Baffling!

Posted by techieman @ 08:26 AM (1159 views)
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13 thoughts on “Round like a spiral in a spiral like a wheel within a wheel…..

  • I will paraphrase something i read the other day which explains the use of the momentum indicator divergences and why a spike top is generally followed by a collapse. Its not just applicable to housing but it will ring true there.

    When optimism continues against the face of worsening conditions, the only possible resolution is a complete reversal (although exactly when is the difficult call!). When bulls have committed capital and borrowed more exponentially to keep in that market, and when rising prices fund even more borrowing to perpetuate the rise, there is no cushion when the trend reverses. There is no cash on the sidelines waiting to scoop up the bargains since its all gone into the investments and the loans that back them up, so there is nothing to stop a free fall.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Fred Harrison’s 18 year land price cycle work was very good. But the real usefulness is in using his work as a stepping stone to investigate bigger and more metaphysical cycles that underpin our whole lives and evolution itself.

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  • It’s that old Saros cycle at work again (18 years 11 days 8 hours) determining the prices which we pay for land.

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  • s2r1 – sounds like you have already moved on to the next level of “consciousness” – it will take others some time to catch up….. so don’t be too harsh it there is a torrent of abuse. Its interesting what you say though. Prior to finding this site, and your postings in particular, i believed in the Elliott / K-wave Grand Supercycle. A case of battoning down hatches and picking up assets cheaply once the cycle was over, and generally trying to make money on the short side – funnily enough i thought until around 2012. Now if this end of super cycle degree also signifies the end of our current western way of living, i.e. using promissory notes backed merely by promises of in effect more debt. Then thats even more interesting although maybe less practical! Whether I comment or not or agree or not on your postings I always read them and find them interesting and thought provoking. (I dont know if there is a facility to do so but it would be good if you were able to search for a contributor’s posts / comments. (Webmaster?).

    In fact i would go so far as to say that had you not expressed your views I would be likely to refrain from further visits. After all relative to HPC – we are at the start (difficult to deny) and the only issue then is how far do we go or will the govn. make a desperate attempt to inflate a la early 70s – i.e. nominal or only real falls. Sure we can argue with the Bulls – but really thats pointless. I actually dont mind BTLrs making money its just the piffle they come out with that is amusing. I also hoped that i would see bulls on here promote reasoned arguments to support their position, im quite laid back and can (if evidence suggests otherwise) take an opposite view.

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  • Harold – Thanks looks interesting – I will take a look when i have some more time!

    Rickyb – how many minutes? ;-).

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    harold,

    Interesting book.

    What is the solution they are pointing to?
    Is it to create “interest free” or “interest due” money?
    Is it to have it backed by “gold” or “trust” from honest organisations?

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  • As I have already posted – here is the voice of reason himself.

    http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZkfmY1PMng

    Harrison will become more and more relevant – unlike the politicians bankers brokers bulls – he has done the work.

    This man has done this thinking.

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  • “yes there are business cycles but i dont believe there is a cycle in property”

    and that’s why I completely ignore Greenbay.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    techieman,

    “After all relative to HPC – we are at the start (difficult to deny) and the only issue then is how far do we go or will the govn. make a desperate attempt to inflate a la early 70s ”

    This website has its own level of consciousness. When I first started reading in the summer of 2006 there were massive debates about immigration and racism.
    Once rediculed topics about depression and gold are now widely accepted

    HPC is the reason why everyone came here in the first place. But as economic and politcal systems enter into a state of partial collapse the debate always needs to be widened. It is sites like this one that will be important in winning the information war that is looming.

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  • hpwatcher – fair comment. The point i make though is fine if you want “money for nothing and your chicks (or is that bricks) for free”, then yes leverage up DURING THE EXPANSIONARY PHASE of the cycle (if thats what you want to do) but then why not get out or at least reduce the gearing toward the end of the cycle. Really i am honestly baffled by these people – if they are amateurs who have got in because their mates down the pub say so, then thats one thing but if you have say 20+ properties then personally I would be reading everything i could get my hands on. But maybe i am a bit weird!?!?

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  • “What is the solution they are pointing to?”

    Two: Commodity backed or Bill Still’s solution: debt free government issued money (similar to Lincoln’s Greenback).

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Neo-serf,

    Great video from Fred Harrison.

    I have 2 points here.

    Firstly, Fred has been writing books for 25 years that have made complete sense. His predictions have been very accurate. He has never really had the mainstream press approval for his work. As a result the masses will not have never heard of him. Maybe now he has switched to making youtube videos his ideas will get through to the masses who deserve to understand them. As I said earlier, the information war is going to need a lot more people to switch from traditional media to internet video media for the truth to come out.

    Secondly, Fred’s ideas are just a tiny piece of the jigsaw that is keeping the politicians/banks/corporates/mass media with all the power and the masses enslaved into their own debt.

    Times are a changing though.

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