Wednesday, March 26, 2008

One dissenting voice – guess who?

Housing experts predict 20% price falls this year

House prices in the UK are expected to fall between 10% and 20% over the next year, according to a poll of delegates at the recent Great Housing Market Debate conference. Of the 150 lenders, estate agents, economists, brokers and property investors at the London event, just one, Assetz director Stuart Law, said he expected to see price increases in 2007. 'The dire shortage of housing stock in the UK will spike up rents and keep prices afloat,’ said Law. ‘This lack of confidence within the industry is a clear indication that we have hit rock bottom and things are set to improve.

Posted by little professor @ 08:39 AM (1255 views)
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16 thoughts on “One dissenting voice – guess who?

  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Stuartz a cool guy eh? I think someone else has likened him to Comical Ali the infamous henchman whittering on about a glorious victory as 150,000 US and coalition troops swept into Baghdad.

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  • Landedgentry says:

    ‘The dire shortage of housing stock in the UK will spike up rents and keep prices afloat,’

    Or buy-to-letters will cash out at a greatly reduced price to what they paid and that will give the market the laxative it needs.

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  • “Assetz director Stuart Law, said he expected to see price increases in 2007” – Stuatz waz the most accurate with hiz 2007 prediction (good guess) – Citywire presumably have a typing error here? and it should read 2008.

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  • The trouble with his moronic argument is that we’ve got stocks at record highs and buyers at record lows. His imaginary shortage is just that. You can’t change the facts.

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  • Stuart finishes by saying ‘The mere fact that everyone said that house prices will fall this year reaffirms my belief that house prices will now in fact modestly increase.’ Expalin that one to me again!

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  • Blank Cheque says:

    Ha-ha-ha! That Ztuart Law you gotta hand it to him – he’s such a funny guy!

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  • I’d like to play a little game here:

    Let’s suppose that in January 2009, the numbers suggest that property (asking) prices actually rose again across the year by a few percent. Law crows in triumph and we say … well what do we say?

    Don’t misunderstand me: I expect a correction but remember how many of us called the top of the market in 2005?

    It seems amazing to me that Law is willing to make these bullish predictions in public when virtually all the evidence is going against him. If we are wrong, we will have to take a slice of humble pie. If Law is wrong, his business credibility will be hit badly. I’m no fan of property price ramping but I have to say that Law is really sticking his neck out when he could have said something simpler and safer.

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  • There are no Americans in Bagdad! There is no sub prime in the UK!

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  • theboltonfury says:

    there is always one that will never be told anything other than what he/she wants to hear – just like Tony Blair is the only one who still thinks his invasion was a good idea. They make their bed so many times and so loudly that they have no choice to stick with it.

    His business credibility is already screwed as his company name endz in a Z. That alone is pathetic

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  • Spoken like the Captain on the Titanic.

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  • I can’t see a 20% drop in house prices this year with the wider economy being largely untouched. To get a 12% fall this year we can’t afford to see anything less than 1% + falls every single month. If the wider economy isn’t being heavily effected you just won’t see those levels of falls.
    I hope Mr. Miles is correct but if the reason for the fall is that a 200k motgage will cost as much to service as a 300k mortgage did, have we gained anything. Ok we might not have lost as much as taking out a 300k mortgage a year ago.

    On the subject of when we might start seeing ‘significant’ falls showing up in the published figures, if people were accepting asking price -10% now, this I guess would show in the hali/wide figures in May/June when the figures come through for completrions and not on Land Registry until July August. In addition the fact that alot of houses have officially added 5% to asking prices in the last 2 or 3 months (and I’ve seen 15% added to asking prices in 2 areas I watch Winchester and Marlow since last September) How much of a fall is likely to be registering to the general public even by late summer.

    Sorry to be such a pessimist but you can see where I’m going with this. I look forward to you all re-assuring me I’m wrong.

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  • matt_the_hat says:

    I think we will see a 2 tier housing market, London and the rest of the UK. London prices will see a relatively small drop in prices whilst the property merket outside will collapse. We don’t have an economy in this country outside a few square miles.

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  • Law is the new Messiah! I wonder if women or even men at the Great Housing Market Debate conference took off their panties and threw them at him.

    >> matt_the_hat said:
    >>I think we will see a 2 tier housing market, London and the rest of the UK. London prices will see a relatively small drop in prices whilst the property merket outside will collapse.

    I’ve firm belief that nationwide we will see falls around 10% by close of 08 but I’m not so sure that everything outside of London will collapse. I’m stunned by the number of recent “sale agreed” and “sold” signs of late in my part of Somerset, however I live in an area where there is little to no concept of BTL or FTB so it’s really difficult to gauge the market for those types of property. My feeling is that demand for BTL or FTB in my close area is most probably very weak, but for the higher end properties a level of demand is still there.

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  • new user 2007 says:

    “The mere fact that everyone said that house prices will fall this year reaffirms my belief that house prices will now in fact modestly increase.”

    That is as logical as any other comment on Economics he has thus far made:)

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  • to be fair Stuart has been more right than wrong so far, and the gurus often lorded on this site have been nothing short of pathetic with their prediction since 2004!

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    “First-time buyer initiatives were widely perceived to have failed due to a shortage of appropriate property, a fact which the lone cheerleader for price rises, Law, believed would help to put a floor under pricing.”

    Appropriate property? The majority of the housebuilder’s output over the last two years has been 1&2 bed flats, mainsonettes, duplexes or whatever other marketing term there is for them. Possibly they could be made more appropriate for FTB’s by dropping the “executive lifestyle appartment” tag and slicing £50k from the price.

    As for Stuart Law his theories go back to the old telecom boom days. The (simplified) thinking then was that if somebody will pay £1000 a month for a high speed data link then if we put in enough capacity to carry 100 lines we can make £100000 each month. The obvious shortfall is that there is only a small volume of customers who are prepared to pay such high prices. I am also still unsure how a lack of property for FTB’s means that rents will rise. Surely the lack of property is caused by all of the available stock up to now being bought by BTL landlords who need to rent out their property in a growing market.

    While I’m going at it isn’t Assetz a property investor scheme? Wouldn’t it be in the best interests of his (new) customers if house prices actually fell? The only people who benefit from rising prices are him and his cronies skimming 10% off the top. Imagine that, talking up the market to benefit yourself and not your customer. Good job that the FSA don’t pay too much attention to him. They must be busy investigating how many investigators it takes to notice a flawed business plan.

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