Friday, March 7, 2008

Oh Noes!

Feb prices +0.5%, YoY +6.1%

UK house prices saw a modest pick-up in February after three months of stagnation, but the overall trend is towards a slowing housing market, according to the latest data from Acadametrics, producer of the FT House Price Index. The Index showed a 0.5% rise in house prices, with year-on-year inflation totalling 6.1%, down from 6.8% in January. February’s rise in house prices was slightly stronger than the 0.2% rise seen in January and the dip in house prices of 0.1 and 0.1 per cent seen in December and November

Posted by little professor @ 12:50 PM (1530 views)
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14 thoughts on “Oh Noes!

  • little professor says:

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  • “The FT House Price Index is unique. The FT index is the only UK house price index based upon every residential property transaction in England and Wales recorded at the Land Registry (LR), as opposed to a data sample. The FT index thereby includes properties sold for cash and uses the final transaction prices and the complete data set in order to provide a true measure of house price inflation. We smooth the FT index house prices in order to minimise the index volatility which otherwise masks trends; thus the prices are the factual LR transaction prices recorded at LR, smoothed, seasonally and mix adjusted.”

    Land Registry based, so they will be lagging the actual market by 2-3 months.

    Also they will be reporting sales gross of any incentives given by developers.

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  • I’m going to ignore these figures, as the signs of an economic slowdown are becoming more and more pronounced. I’m hearing about UK redundancies all the time.
    There is undoubtly a recession on the way.

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  • “Also they will be reporting sales gross of any incentives given by developers” – well that would likely push the figure from positive to negative if they reported the correct (net) amounts

    Can we also campaign for a seasonally adjusted “fraud and crime” figure to be included.

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  • Just re-cap for me; If LF figures lag the actual market by 2-3 months. What do Feb’s figures refer to?

    As these figures are for completion, or sold prices I would expect these these numbers to be far more bearish that NW and HAL indexes which work on asking prices. It is the other way around ad that is something i cannot understand (Dodgy developer incentives aside)

    Theory; Asking prices are coming down but sellers are not accepting smaller reduction offers in price?

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  • “We smooth the FT index house prices in order to minimise the index volatility”

    Yes statistical “smoothing”. So the sharply declining figures that lenders and the Bank of England have been reporting have been “smoothed” out by Abracadabrametrics.

    Haven’t you got any other questionable figurz, Stuart?

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  • Made my day when I looked at propertysnake – several reductions of around 20% in EDINBURGH and not newbuilds either. And they said it couldn’t happen!
    It’s very sudden, is this the beginning of the great BTL sell-off?

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  • Abracadabrametrics

    – like it! Nice one.

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    “The FT House Price Index is unique”

    Is that because it is the only one that does not bear any relation to UK house prices?

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  • uncle chris says:

    It has always intrigued me how the FT figure is £50,000 (or 28%) above other “average price” indices such as Nationwide. It would suggest that the FT figure has become detached from the typical house prices somewhere down the line. If the “seasonal adjustment” has worked to overplay last month’s figures, then I guess it will accelerate any donwturn seen during the summer months.

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  • Letthemfall says:

    All these fractions of a percent are just saying that house prices are quasi-stable at present. But with the lack of credit, the drop in lending and the parlous economic situation, it is a pretty strong bet that the minus numbers will start to rise soon enough.

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  • I haven’t noticed any significant falls in asking prices, just a lot of properties which aren’t selling. I suspect that only when the YoY index goes negative will sellers realise they need to drop asking prices and estate agents will realise that if asking prices are not lowered, they’ll get no sales, hence no income.

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  • A Saver…Just looked and theri appear to be only 13 properties and they all look like new builds? You had eme going theri for a while. There are a few murmurs up here but it is still a swear word to mention the crash, Edinburgh is still in denial from what I can see.

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  • just searched for Scotland instead Edinburgh and a few have popped up within Edinburgh? found one in Newington etc…

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