Saturday, March 8, 2008

Last chance to buy PUT options and cheap gold

US Fed pins economic hopes on $200bn liquidity boost

"This will prompt the Fed to slash rates rapidly to 1pc. One thing that history teaches us is that when an economy stalls and drops into recession, things get very bad very quickly. There is no going back now: we are well past the tipping point," he said.

I said 1 month ago sub 1pc US rates by the summer

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:24 AM (1338 views)
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14 thoughts on “Last chance to buy PUT options and cheap gold

  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    The Armstrong and Calleman models point to a massive crash in mid to late March.
    This crash will signify that a depression is very close.

    It will also signify the start of the “information war”. This will be a war waged between the internet and the traditional mass media, which will essentially will be the truth v lies.

    If the Calleman model plays out correctly then we should see the power elite of politics/banks/corporates/media be exposed by the power of the ethically minded masses using the internet.

    Also, what is this military uniform wearing in public story about. Even Channel 4 news couldn’t understnd where it had come from.

    Then all became clear. It is to get us to accept as the norm, seeing the military on our streets. This is of course necessary as we enter a depression and a high-tech police state which the govnment has planned.

    Get yourself prepared

    Terror storm
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=786048453686176230

    Zeitgeist
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-594683847743189197&hl=en

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Should we avoid the underground during march for a state engineered terrorist attack? There is an excess of office space now, so the city could do with a couple towers coming down? Swiss re sold, a few towers around canary wharf sold, presumably with insurance. (I thought you’d like that s2r!)

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  • stillthinking says:

    I have my doubts that GB can run a high-tech police state, judging from his past performance.

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  • s2r1 – This is interesting. On the daily or weekly for that matter bars (OHLC) the low i have for FTSE is 5315 on 22nd Jan (basis cash). I didnt understand your point that other day that we are 100 points away from the January bottom. Now looking at the FTSE chart IF you count this as a 5 wave down move since the high last years – i.e. A – B and then C (with us being on the 5th of that C), then the 4th of that C should not have breached the low of 1 – i.e 6022 on the 22nd November (but it did!). If it is a 5 waves as part of C- then that look likely to fit around your 18 – 22 date. I dont like that but thats where we are. The DAX looks better. So lower yes but perhaps a quick break to exhaust (for the moment ) the downmove. So (in my view) and particularly because Puts are a wasting asset, for any quick plunge i would say take some profits(i.e. on some of the position). Congrats though on the put buying – I missed out on that one :-).

    Now as for the currencies and Gold. Gold on the daily bars looks trapped in a 5th. Although you could count the high of 993 as the topof the 5th that doesnt look right to me but a channel overthrough and spike above 1,000 (briefly) looks better. Of course a break below 955 turns bearish (whether terminally or not is a different question).

    The pound and Euro v the USD. Yes you are right – this move up through 1.50 on the Eur / $ chart is starting to look like it runs out of steam within the 155 – 160 area. Although we need to see some more action before pinpointing a top. After that though i think the dollar strengthens. As for £/$ the weeklies show a classic 5 move down from the 211.60 high to 193.40 low and then an a-b-c back toward 203.50 (the bottom of wave 1 of the 5 wave down move) A 50% retrace gives 202.50, so to me around here looks like a good place and time to consider shorting the £ v $.
    Similarly the Euro, i would be buying the Euro here with a stop below 7580. That then I think (new highs) will exhaust the Euro upmove, and the £ will strengthen against it. So the $ and the £ (after this move up in the Euro) terminates against them, strengthen but the $ strengthens more than the £. I have some Euros and will look to probably trade against them (reverse) soon.

    Been busy but interested and trying to catch up with your various videos you post. Keep up the good work I say – people should watch and make up their own minds before labelling others as cranks.

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  • Happy Mondays says:

    s2r1,
    The Armstrong and Calleman models point to a massive crash in mid to late March.
    This crash will signify that a depression is very close.
    Can you tell me what web site or source this info is from, as am interested and cannot seem to find it? Also if a depression is looming, there is always a war with it, (keeps us little people busy thinking about and blaming someone else) is this calculated or is our war on terror it, or just the very beggining? Also with all this going on surely there would be a global meltdown finacially and with infrastructure so money, property, shares, would all become worthless and we will see it for the illusion it is, and then maybe if and only if after all the pain, and we are not to stupid to do it all again, we will take another evolutionary step!

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Still thinking, they have good practice in N.Ireland, Iraq and Afghanistan. Those operations were against an armed populace. We have f%ck all to protect ourselves.

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  • s2r1, I agree that a depression looks likely. This mid-to-late March crash that you anticipate, do you mean a stockmarket crash or something else?

    p4ac: I’m not sure that we can expect towers to come down just for insurance claims. The company that built Canary Wharf went bankrupt in the early 1990s after they were unable to let out all the offices. I didn’t see any terrorist attacks there, yet they could have easily blamed the IRA. Quoting from Wikipedia: “The world property market collapsed in the early 1990s, and Olympia and York [developers of Canary Wharf] filed for bankruptcy in May 1992, with over US$20 billion in debts. Tenant demand evaporated despite the availability of special rent concessions for early occupiers.”

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  • larry pickleman says:

    p4crash – i grew up in belfast 1969 – 1994 and believe me, the people fought with sticks and stones long before the arms arrived…

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  • s2r1, so what do we do with gold and gold stocks if a massive crash happens in mid to late March?
    I think gold may hold, but gold stocks will probably break later. What do yo think?

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  • talking rot says:

    s2r1 and p4ac

    Please take a walk along Ronny-Real-Street.

    I don’t believe the military would support a general deployment on UK’s streets – 1926 is remembered in the military. You ought to note the military do not give their oath of allegiance to common politicians but to Her Majesty. Given the standing of Gordon Broon, the Army (forget about the Navy and RAF – they don’t matter) would not accept orders to maintain Broon’s political direction by “being on the streets.” If there is a need to deploy soldiers then the politicians are facing a political problem which can not be solved by military force.

    [Why don’t the Navy / RAF matter? Because neither could punch their way out of a paper bag. Witness the Navy vs the Iranians! The closest matlos get to the enemy is a blip on a radar screen. The RAF don’t fight – they send a very, very few high calibre pilots to deliver air power effects against a helpless enemy many miles away. Most of the RAF are civilians in uniform supporting the pilots and the ‘plane being flown. Most RAF couldn’t use a rifle because they haven’t completed the right course! Compare this against the Army. Army. Average literacy: 50% < reading age of an 11 year old; 25% have a reading age < 7 year old. But who cares? They are winning the military battle in Afghanistan but will ultimately fail because the problems of Afghanistan are political in nature. The military can only succeed against military problems; political solutions are needed to solve political problems. The Army likes to wear uniforms because it aids recruitment. If you can read this email, thank a teacher. If you can read this email in English, thank a soldier.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    I don’t believe that this will actually happen, but I think that failure to recognise that it could happen opens us to it actually happening.

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  • Bang on the money S2R1!!!

    @stillthinking (comment 3), GB won’t, the people will!!!!

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  • Look at Google shares & Gold since November 07. It’s a fight for minds.

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