Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Gold down to 964

Fears of a commodity crash grow

In summary, the commodity secular bull will live on, but we may be in for a commodities correction soon.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:28 AM (920 views)
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11 thoughts on “Gold down to 964

  • 954 is the level. If no downside break basis spot expect new highs, probably then it will test the $1,000. Then a bigger correction.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Kitco is saying 965 and 9:54 AM. What is your source.

    The comments in the article are excellent. They span the full spectrum from hyperinfaltion to deflation.

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  • “Fear of commodity crash”
    Who fears a commodity crash? Only someone who is simply long commodities.
    To make money from commodities right now, a market-neutral strategy would make sense. This article would suggest to me that one such trade would be to go long soy and equally short sugar, thus hedging the systemic risk whilst taking advantage of the proposed upcoming breakdown in correlation between these two commodities.

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  • My source? Just my experience. 954.20 is the spot of wave 1 – and the move down (which took out my 10%) nearly hit that 954.60 (i think) so 954.20. A move up to $1,000 then actually fits with lower USD – exhaustion. It would then actually fit with your theories too Armstrong / Mayan – date of around 20th March. Could that be it? An end to the decline in the value of the dollar? Yes scanned the article (will devote more time to it later – the CRB index is interesting and tradeable, but as we discussed before most commiodities looked to be in a 3rd wave. Crude doesnt look too good to me – perhaps that wont have a new high for a while. Interesting about sugar – the supply is expanding and yet the price is increasing – or is it just the value of the dollar decreasing faster than the increase in supply, or is it just because of the E wave structure. All these things to wrestle with! Of course re Gold there is an alternative – isnt there always!! :-).

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  • is kitco saying spot / futures or ETFs? If futures then that may correlate to my spot. (oh that doesnt sound nice).

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  • Isn’t it also true that the Mayan calender predicts the end of the world in 2012? If you also believe this, then why are you all worrying about commodity prices?

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  • rickyb – not sure if your comment was tongue in cheek or not – but there’s nothing wrong with having a plan B. You might end up like the guy who blew all his savings when he was told he only had a few months to live and then found out that the doctors had made a mistake and he was OK!

    s2r1 – I hope you will ignore the flak you’ve been getting for some of your more ‘interesting’ posts. Some of us enjoy reading them.

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  • Cornish – absolutely right. When i was 15 someone said something that stuck with me. I said i live for today and spend everything i have because i might die tomorrow. The person said “yes you might but what if you dont?” ;-). I’m not sure that the Mayan 2012 is defined as the end of civilisation (eg meteor) . But for s2r1 – are you familiar with Nostradamus and St Mulachy (spelling?)? Doesnt SM state that this pope is the last one or is it the last but one? This is probably way off blog i realise!!

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  • @techieman – way off topic – you are referring to Saint Malachy – looks like this Pope is the last – if it turns out to be true we could see a Foxtons for sale sign up at the vatican.

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  • Thanks Jack – yes thats the geezer i meant, was just being lazy since as you say off topic !!! Anyway re off topic Ricky started it ;-). Could they convert their surplus minis to popemobiles – or should that be the other way round?

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  • planning4acrash says:

    There e waves, or whatever, are the result of dynamic relationships. At the moment, oil and gold are dancing. Oil broke 100 and reached for 105, so hold sought 1000 as a hedge against the pipeline inflation. Gold fell when oil went back to 90’s, simple.

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