Saturday, March 8, 2008

A feast of technical charts !!

UK House Prices Fall in February- Home Owners have Lost £7,600 in 6 months!

"The UK economy and Housing market has entered a downward spiral, similar to which the US market has been experiencing, which is approximately a year ahead of the UK in terms of house prices trend. During 2008 some 1.4 million UK home owners are to experience their fixed interest rate mortgages taken out under easy credit terms and at low interest rates during the housing boom, reset at higher interest rate levels and find themselves unable to fix again at favorable rates due to the mortgage banks being decimated by credit and debt market losses and in most cases unable to offer anything other than the high standard variable rates"

Posted by confused76 @ 07:55 PM (2018 views)
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19 thoughts on “A feast of technical charts !!

  • That’s nothing! According to the lates survey, house prices in Northern Ireland are falling by £6,500 a month!

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  • That decline is absolutely unmistakeable. Zero doubt about it – the crash has started.

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  • I haven’t lost anything as I regard my house as somewhere to live and not an investment!

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  • Landedgentry says:

    1989 Ah a vintage year !

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  • @paul said… Yep, I agree with you and these technical charts highlight the inevitable downturn that all of us on this site have been predicting. There is little doubt that the ‘talking up’ of house prices will come to a dramatic end by the summer with more bearish comments sounding out from estate agents et al. I think I will go and pour myself a wee scotch and have a little snigger over all the shepple that have been on my case since I sold my property two and a half years ago……

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  • Also, has everyone noticed how the over bearish headlines that were common place 12 months ago (Daily Express comes to mind..) i.e.stating house prices to average £1,000,000 by 2015 (or thereabouts) , seem to have mysteriously disappeared!

    How such headlines were allowed to be printed in the first place is beyond me, these journalists should be ousted from their posts as their influence has had a serious impact in fueling this bubble and have put many people at risk in losing their homes by encouraging herd mentallity. Newspaper headlines are a powerful form of advertising for VI’s, they should be held accountable!

    Rant over….. for now : )

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  • larry pickleman says:

    think i’ll start making the home brew for the street party…

    …oh that’s right, btl killed the community…

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  • Well,

    That’s one for the books.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    enuii, you cannot deny the opportunity cost of not selling 2 rent 1.

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  • planning4acrash – provided the bank you keep your savings in doesn’t go bust, or the government inflates the currency or… Whilst in real terms house prices must decrease significantly and this might be a golden opportunity for someone to make a killing, I’m not sure what I would do if I already owned a home with little or no mortgage outstanding. Given how serious the trouble the banks are in anything could happen, so a bird in the hand may be a better bet. The US is literally throwing money at the banks and slashing interest rates. All we need is for a couple of big hedge funds and a bank or two to go boom and all bets are off.

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  • planning4acrash, maybe enuii doesn’t have a mortgage – there are some genuine homeowners in this country you know.

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  • the xyy man says:

    It’s nice to see headlines like this as I can wind-up people who’ve bored me for years telling me how much their house is worth.

    But the truth is home OWNERS are losing nothing, just as they have gained nothing in the past – other than owing less on their mortgage as time goes by. Headlines like this make no difference to people who bought a HOME.

    The people who are losing £7,600 are speculators, BTLetters, MEWers and such like – and I won’t need to wind any of them up – they’ll be crying in their beer at a pub near you right now…go on, buy them a drink, they’ll need all the freebies they can get!!!

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  • happyrenterz says:

    For a first time buyer it makes a huge difference when you buy a home, bottom or top of the cycle I mean.

    @ d’oh good point about the security of our savings though. A severe hpc will be accompanied with a strong devaluation of the GBP. This is why people with savings need to think about alternative investments very seriously.

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  • Singlespeed says:

    A well written artical and I like the charts too ! . Because the banks create a third of the uk’s Gdp and employ more than any other
    sector I’m expecting banks to trim the excess fat amongst its employers – now lets start with the mortgage departments !! .

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  • xyy man, that’s not necessarily true – this will affect ALL homeowners – especially those that have bought recently hoping to trade up within six months. The credit boom has made speculators out of all recent homebuyers. Unfortunately.

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  • “I have received several emails asking if I expect the UK housing market to bottom in August 2009. My response is that we are still at the beginning of the UK housing bear market that I expect to run to August 2009. There is no sign at this point in time to suggest that August 2009 will be a bottom as the UK economy by that time will be either in or close to being in recession. However, towards the end of this year (2008), I will be able to update the housing market forecast to beyond 2009.”

    By Nadeem Walayat

    I can help you out here : The answer is : NO, it could be before or after (I thought I might start training in politics. What do you think?)

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  • Bubbles. . . . . says:

    The bubble has burst!!!!!! HA HA my niece that called all on this site stupid sad sickos get a life because ghouse prices never go down! has had her (due desserts!) reality. The sad sickos are now the speculators and profiteers and just wait to hear them howl suggesting that if they dont get tax breaks immediately the world will end just as we know it.
    I have been in the market trying to offer sensible prices i.e 10% off for immediate exchange and contract and been refused Cash buyer no chain! I wonder what will happen next month!

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  • stillthinking says:

    This only affects people who want to sell. Nobody else.
    If anything, a reduction in sale price will cause BTL to hold on because their effective yield will go up. The crash depends on sellers. So the next step will be from the credit crunch and the gradual increase in repayments, plus people moving for natural reasons or cashing in, and the probably quite large effect from the new CGT in April. Not so long away now.
    We are all going to have to wait years…. before the bottom.
    If you are worried about banks or the inflationary reaction of the UK government, move out of the currency, seems simple enough if you have enough of a pot to make it worthwhile.

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  • Those are quite conservative figures have a look at the following

    House on rightmove at £299,950
    and price at land registry for 1 Yew Tree

    A fall of 20,000. This property has been on the market for more than two years. Was on the market for between 320- 350K as well.

    But these figures would suggest a real fall.

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